本报记者 汪珺

Our reporter WangJun

　　三地变化率在经历几天大跌后再次陷入震荡反弹，成品油价11月上旬调价的预期或成为泡影。多家市场机构认为，受近期欧美天气突变对国际油价形成支撑等因素影响，成品油价下调窗口或后延至11月中旬末。

Three days after the change rate after plunged into shock rebound again,Finished product oil prices early November price adjustment expected or vanish into thin air.Several market mechanism think,Europe and the United States by the recent weather mutation on international oil prices the impact of factors such as the development of support,Finished product oil price cut window or after extended to 11 months XunMo.

　　上周，国际油价连续下跌。多家机构预测，照此走势，三地变化率有望于11月上旬跌破-4%红线。但上周五，因中美经济数据利好且飓风影响美国东海岸石油供应，国际原油期价上扬。新华社石油价格系统10月29日发布的数据显示，三地(迪拜、布伦特、辛塔)原油10月26日移动平均价格变化率为-2.54%，较25日回升0.04%。

Last week,International oil prices continue decline.Many agencies prediction,According to this trend,Three rate is expected to be in early November - 4% below the red line.But last Friday,Because of the good economic data and hurricane affect the east coast of the us oil supply,The international crude oil QiJia rise.The xinhua news agency petroleum price system on October 29 data released by the display,three(dubai/brent/Symplectic tower)Crude oil on October 26, moving average price rate for 2.54%,A 25 picks up 0.04%.

　　卓创资讯测算，这将导致三地变化率跌破-4%的时间随之后延。若三地油价保持当前价位，预计变化率将于11月中旬末即19、20日左右跌破-4%，迎来成品油下调窗口，下调幅度约为300元/吨。

Zhuo and measure information,This will lead to change places below - 4% of the time then later.If oil prices keep three current price,Expected rate will be in 11 months XunMo is 19/20 days or so below 4%,Have cut oil window,Down the rate of about 300 yuan/ton.

　　欧美天气“变脸”或成为此番成品油价下调后延的最大诱因。卓创资讯分析师陈晴认为，近期欧洲遭受寒流，将导致取暖油需求增加；而美国上空酝酿的飓风“桑迪”，将给美国炼油设施、原油和汽油产品运输以及东海岸主要石油管线带来严重威胁，可能导致民用燃油市场出现供应瓶颈或中断。这两个突发因素将对国际油价市场形成支撑。

Europe and the United States the weather"Suddenly turn hostile"Or be the finished product oil prices and later cut the biggest incentive.Zhuo and information ChenQing analysts think,The recent European suffer cold snap,Will lead to increased demand for heating oil;While the United States brewing over the hurricane"sandy",Will give the United States refining facilities/Crude oil and gasoline product transportation and east coast main oil pipeline bring serious threat,May lead to civil fuel market appear supply bottleneck or interrupt.The two unexpected factors contribute to the formation of international oil prices the market support.

　　不过，国内成品油批发市场仍然“跌跌不休”。生意社监测数据显示，10月国内汽油月初价格为10011元/吨，月末价格为9894元/吨，跌幅为-1.17%；柴油月初价格为8611元/吨，月末价格为8407元/吨，跌幅为-2.37%。成品油“银十”市场旺季不旺。受国际原油震荡走低影响，10月成品油市场看空气氛浓厚，需求进一步萎缩。生意社成品油分析师李宏认为，后期国内汽柴油价格仍有下行空间。

but,The domestic refined oil wholesale market still"Stumbling endlessly".Business clubs monitoring data shows,October domestic gasoline month price for 10011 yuan/ton,At the end of the price for 9894 yuan/ton,Fall for - 1.17%;Early diesel oil price for 8611 yuan/ton,At the end of the price for 8407 yuan/ton,Fall for - 2.37%.product"Silver ten"The market is not busy season.By international crude oil shock slump influence,October product oil market to see air atmosphere,Demand further atrophy.Business club product oil analysts think et al,Later the domestic gasoline and diesel prices still have descending space.