中信银行(601998,股吧)副行长

Citic bank(601998,guba)Vice President

　　中国人民大学国际货币研究所联席所长

China people's university international monetary institute associate director

　　曹彤

CaoTong

　　中国人民大学国际货币研究所研究员

China people's university researcher at the institute of international currency

　　国务院发展研究中心国际技术经济研究所助理研究员

The state council development research center, international technology economic research institute assistant researcher

　　曲双石

Song ShuangShi

　　略有回暖

Slightly milder

　　——美国金融形势评论

- the United States the financial situation review

　　8月份，美国经济虽仍显疲态，但略有回暖。

In August,The American economy is still showed tired legs,But slightly milder.

　　生产总值方面，美国商务部数据显示，二季度美国GDP环比年化增长率为1.5%，虽高于预期的1.2%，却为2011年三季度以来最低水平。

GDP aspects,The us department of commerce data display,The second quarter GDP in America link annualised growth rate of 1.5%,Although 1.2% of the higher than expected,But for the third quarter in 2011 to its lowest level.

　　就业方面，美国劳工部非农就业报告显示，虽然7月份美国非农就业环比增加16.3万，大幅超出市场预期的10万，创5个月来新高，但7月份美国失业率也小幅上涨0.1个百分点，由8.2%增至8.3%。美国劳工部数据显示，7月份有15万人离开了劳动力市场，劳动参与率下降0.1%至63.7%，处于30年来的低点附近。由美国商务部根据6万个家庭样本进行调查得出的包含丧失寻找工作信心的边缘劳动力的“U-6失业率”，7月份更是攀升至15%的高位，表明更多的人因心灰意冷而选择了放弃找工作或直接退休。

employment,The United States department of labor non-agricultural employment report,Although July, the United States non-agricultural employment link an increase of 163000,Greatly exceed market expectations of $100000,Gen five months to new highs,But the unemployment rate in July and small rose 0.1%,To 8.3% from 8.2%.The United States department of labor data show,In July 150000 people left the Labour market,Labor participation rate fell by 0.1% to 63.7%,In 30 years near the lows.By the us department of commerce according to 60000 families survey samples containing lose job search the edge of the confidence of the labor force"U - 6 unemployment",July is climbed to 15% of high,Show that more people for dispirited and discouraged and chose to give up to find a job or direct retirement.

　　消费方面，美国商务部数据显示，7月份美国零售额环比增长0.8%，大超预期，创今年2月以来新高。不计汽车、汽油、建材的核心零售额环比增长0.9%，创今年1月以来新高；密歇根大学和汤森路透集团联合发布的消费者信心报告显示，得益于消费者对经济现状的看法更趋乐观，8月份美国消费者信心指数初值为73.6，超过7月份的终值72.3，更远超预期的71.8，创今年5月以来新高。但是，该指数目前仍处于历史较低水平。

Consumer spending,The us department of commerce data display,In July the United States retail sales growth of 0.8% annulus,Big than expected,And since February this year record.Regardless of the car/gasoline/The core of building materials retail sales growth of 0.9% annulus,And since January this year record;The university of Michigan and townsend Reuters group issued jointly by the consumer confidence report shows,Thanks to the consumer to economic situation view more hasten is optimistic,In August the United States consumer confidence index initial value is 73.6,More than the July issue of the final value of 72.3,Farther than expected 71.8,And since may of this year record.but,The index is still in a historical low.

　　制造业方面，美国供应管理协会制造业报告显示，7月份美国制造业指数为49.8点，略高于6月的49.7点，但低于预期的50.1点，为该指数连续两个月低于50，意味着制造业持续萎缩；美国商务部工厂订单报告显示， 6月份美国制造业订单环比下滑0.5%，为该数据连续第三个月环比下降，完全出乎市场意料，表明美国制造业疲软程度进一步加深。

Manufacturing aspects,The institute for supply management showed manufacturing report,In July the United States manufacturing index for 49.8 points,Slightly higher than June 49.7 points,But lower than expected 50.1 points,The index for two consecutive months less than 50,Means that manufacturing continuous atrophy;The us department of commerce factory orders report shows, June the United States manufacturing order chain fell 0.5%,The data for a third consecutive decline y/y,Entirely unexpected,That the United States is a weak industry degree deepen.

　　服务业方面，美国供应管理协会服务业报告显示， 7月份美国服务业指数环比小幅增至52.6点，超出市场预期，但雇佣子指数环比重跌3个点至49.3点，为去年12月以来首次跌破50，表明服务业雇佣量出现环比萎缩。

The service industry,The institute for supply management service report, In July the services index link slightly to 52.6 points,Exceed market expectations,But employment son index ring proportion fell three points to 49.3 points,For the first time since last December below 50,Show that service industry employment quantity appear link atrophy.

　　房地产方面，美国商务部数据显示，6月份美国新屋销量环比下降8.4%至35万幢，创5个月来新低，降幅达去年2月以来最大；6月份新屋价格中值同比下降3.2%；7月份经季节调整的新屋开建数量年化值环比下降1.1%至74.6万幢，低于预期的75.7万幢。美国房地产经纪商协会数据显示，6月份美国二手房签销指数意外下降1.4%至99.3，不及增长0.2%的市场预期。

Real estate,The us department of commerce data display,In June a new American house sales chain fell 8.4% to 350000 a,Gen five months to new lows,Drop of last year the biggest since February;In June new house price 3.2% year-on-year drop in value;In July the seasonal adjustment of the new house open built quantity annualised value chain fell 1.1% to 746000 a,Less than the 757000 expected building.The United States real estate brokers association data display,June the second-hand house sign pin index accident fell 1.4% to 99.3,Growth of less than 0.2% of the market expectations.

　　尽管近期房地产业复苏迹象并未强势延续，但仍有理由认为美国楼市已处于徘徊筑底阶段；一是美国政府通过持续巨量购买抵押证券和国债等手段压低市场利率。据房地美披露，7月底，美国30年期固定按揭利率已由3.53%降至3.49%，15年期固定按揭利率则从2.83%降至2.8%；二是美国就业市场持续好转使得购房队伍壮大成为可能。虽然7月份美国失业率小幅回升至8.3%，但仍较2009年峰值低1.7个百分点。7月份新增非农就业16.3万人，创今年2月以来最大增幅。

Despite recent signs of recovery of the real estate industry has not strong continue,But still there is reason to think that the property market has been in a wandering building bottom stage;One is the United States government through the continuous huge amount to buy mortgage-backed securities and bonds, and other means down market interest rates.According to Freddie MAC disclosure,The end of July,The United States 30 year fixed mortgage interest rate has decreased from 3.53% to 3.49%,15 10-year fixed mortgage rate from 2.83% to 2.8%;The second is the United States employment markets continue to improve the team and make possible.Although the unemployment rate in July small back up to 8.3%,But he is still 1.7% lower than 2009 peak.New non-agricultural employment in July 163000,And since February this year, the largest increase.

　　在经济状况如此胶着的背景下，虽然市场上对QE3的呼声一浪高过一浪，但美联储在8月初的议息会议中仍只是将0~0.25%的超低利率维持至2014年末不变，并未对延长至年底的扭曲操作做进一步调整，未有任何将推出进一步量化宽松政策的暗示。

In the economic situation under the background of such ankylosis,Although the market on the voice of QE3 waves surging,But the fed in early August member of interest in the meeting is still just will be 0 ~ 0.25% of ultra-low interest rates unchanged to the end of 2014,Not to extend to the end of distortion operation for further adjustment,No will launch further quantitative easing policy hint.

　　美联储之所以仍不出手，主要是基于以下几点考虑：一是虽然美国目前的经济数据与今年开年之时相比有所恶化，但并未严重到需要采取激进措施的地步，甚至有些数据还要好于预期；二是美国马上面临总统大选，一旦美联储于此时采取又一轮量化宽松政策，必被共和党人猛烈抨击，质疑其是为了奥巴马连任总统铺路；三是美国目前的经济状况并不完全是国内原因造成的，很大程度上源于欧债危机反反复复，迟迟得不到解决。换句话说，美联储单独采取措施效用不大；四是前两轮QE已经说明量化宽松政策对经济的提振效果并不明显，而继续采取量化宽松政策恐怕只会使边际效用进一步递减。

The fed is still do not move,Mainly based on the following consideration:One is although the United States the present economic data and this year compared to open years deterioration,But did not serious to need to take radical measures point,Even some data and better than expected;The second is the United States to immediately face presidential election,Once the fed in at this time to take another round of quantitative easing policy,Will be republicans slamming,The question is to run for a second term as President Obama paving;The third is the United States the present economic situation is not entirely domestic reasons,To a large extent from the debt crisis over and over,Can not solve.In other words,The federal reserve separate take measures utility is not big;The fourth is the first two wheel QE have demonstrated quantitative easing policy on economic boost effect is not obvious,And continue to take quantitative easing policy I'm afraid will only make further diminishing marginal utility.

　　德国开始令人担忧 Germany began worrying

　　——欧洲金融形势评论

- the European financial situation review

　　受欧债危机拖累，欧洲经济持续萎靡，德国经济开始恶化，欧央行受德国掣肘，难有作为。

By the debt crisis drag,The European economy continued to sag,The German economy began to deteriorate,European central bank made by Germany,Difficult to have as.

　　欧盟统计局数据显示，二季度欧元区GDP环比下跌0.2%，同比下跌0.4%。领头羊之一的法国，二季度GDP环比零增长，为连续3个季度未能实现正增长。芬兰作为欧元区仅剩的几个AAA级国家之一，二季度GDP同比收缩0.7%，为2010年以来首次。而作为欧债危机的风暴中心，希腊二季度GDP同比萎缩6.2%，使国际债权人所要求的财政目标更加难以企及。此外，欧央行大幅下调今明两年欧元区的经济增长预期，将2012年欧元区经济萎缩幅度由0.2%上调至0.3%，将2013年欧元区经济增长幅度由1.0%下调至0.6%。

Eurostat data display,The second quarter eurozone GDP chain fell 0.2%,Fell 0.4% year-on-year.One of the leaders of France,The second quarter GDP link zero growth,For continuous three quarters failed to achieve positive growth.Finland as the euro area with only a few AAA grade one of the countries,The second quarter year-on-year GDP contraction of 0.7%,For the first time since 2010.And as the debt crisis storm center,Greek second quarter year-on-year GDP shrinking 6.2%,Make international creditors required financial goals more elusive.In addition,European central bank slashed in the next two years the economic performance of the eurozone growth prospects,In 2012 the euro zone economy will shrink range from 0.2% to 0.3% increase,Will be in 2013 the euro zone economic growth rate from 1.0% down to 0.6%.

　　市场研究机构Markit数据显示，7月份欧元区制造业PMI指数由45.1降至44.0，创37个月来最低水平。除爱尔兰外，欧元区几乎所有成员国的PMI都低于50的荣枯分界线。

Market research institutions Markit data display,In July the eurozone manufacturing PMI index fell to 44.0 from 45.1,Gen 37 months to the lowest level.In addition to the Irish,The eurozone almost all members of the PMI is lower than 50 vicissitude demarcation line.

　　在经济形势一片凄风苦雨中，德国的状况开始令人担忧。德国二季度GDP环比增长0.3%、同比增长1.0%，虽均好于预期，但低于一季度的环比增长0.5%、同比增长1.7%；7月份德国综合PMI由48.1降至47.3，制造业PMI由45降至43.3，创37个月以来最低水平；6月份德国工业生产环比下滑0.9%，同时进口急降，为3个月来第二次，出口也出现下滑；8月份德国ZEW经济景气指数由-19.6降至-25.5，创2011年12月以来最低水平。

In the economic situation in a piece of vile weather,Germany's status start worrying.German GDP growth of 0.3% in the second quarter of annulus/Year-on-year growth of 1.0%,Although are better than expected,But less than 0.5% growth in the first quarter of the link/Year-on-year growth of 1.7%;In July the German comprehensive PMI fell to 47.3 from 48.1,Manufacturing PMI by 45 down to 43.3,Gen 37 months its lowest level since;June the German industrial production chain fell 0.9%,At the same time, import nosedive,For 3 months to the second,Export also dropped;In August the German ZEW economic boom index fell to 19.6 from 25.5,Gen 2011 to its lowest level since December.

　　显然，被欧债危机环绕的德国难以独善其身。虽然长期以来德国因其低债务水平、高就业率被认为对欧债危机具有一定免疫力，但德国经济主要靠出口拉动，而目前欧洲内外经济增速普遍放缓，降低了对德国出口商品的需求，并且欧债危机对市场信心的削弱效应也将最终影响到德国。穆迪甚至已将德国主权信用评级由“稳定”下调至“负面”。

obviously,Is the debt crisis around the German difficult to possess.Although for a long time Germany because of its low debt levels/High employment rate is considered the debt crisis has certain immunity,But the German economy depend mainly on exports,And at present the European internal and external economic growth slowdown in common,To reduce the demand for German export commodities,And the debt crisis of confidence to the market weakening effect will ultimately affect the Germany.Moody's has even will Germany sovereign credit rating by"stable"Down to"negative".

　　面对危急的经济形势，欧央行主观上希望采取积极手段。虽然其在8月2日的议息会议中选择将基准利率维持在0.75%不变，但考虑到7月5日已降息25个基点，因此该选择并不令人意外。更重要的是，欧央行在多个场合表现出对扭转经济及债务形势十分积极的态度，如德拉吉表态将“不惜一切代价捍卫欧元”，并正在重新考虑介入债市进行购债救市活动。

In the face of serious economic situation,European central bank to take positive subjective means.Although its on August 2, member of the interest in the selection will benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.75%,But considering on July 5, has cut interest rates by 25 basis points,So the choice is not surprising.More important is,European central bank on many occasions displayed on torsional economic and debt situation is very positive attitude,Such as Della auspicious comment will be"To defend the euro at all costs",And is to consider intervention bond market to buy debt save city activities.

　　但是，欧央行的主观愿望受到了各种客观政治现实的掣肘，尤其是德国央行的强硬立场。在德国央行看来，欧央行干预债券市场无异于直接资助有关国家，而此举为《里斯本条约》所禁止，并会使相关国家政府不再有实施改革的动力。况且，欧央行如大规模地向市场注资，有可能增加通货膨胀风险，而抑制通货膨胀是欧央行的主要任务。因此，德国央行行长魏德曼成为惟一反对欧央行重新购债的央行理事会成员。欧央行与德国央行之间的矛盾，也使投资者再次质疑欧央行捍卫欧元货币体系免遭解体的能力。

but,The ECB's subjective desire by the various objective of the political reality constraints,Especially the German central bank a tough stance.In the German central bank looks,European central bank intervention bond market is a direct subsidy relevant countries,And it[Lisbon treaty]Has forbidden,And can make the related national government no longer have the power of the reform.besides,European central bank such as large-scale to the market capital injection,May increase the risk of inflation,And curb inflation is the main task of the European central bank.therefore,The German central bank governors WeiDeMan become the only against the ECB to buy debt board member of the central bank.The ECB and the contradiction between the German central bank,Also make investors again questioned the ECB to defend the euro currency system from the disintegration of the ability.

　　希腊改革进展难令国际社会满意，要求其退出欧元区的呼声持续高涨。

Greek reform progress difficult to make the international community satisfaction,Ask its exit the eurozone call remain high.

　　自两年前开始接受外部财政援助以来，希腊在受援条件履约方面难尽人意，其原因有二：一是希腊国内民众对紧缩措施极其反感，已在国内掀起多次抗议浪潮；二是希腊国内经济一塌糊涂，财政增收无望。目前希腊已步入2008年来的第五个衰退年头，预计今年将衰退7%左右，失业率攀升至创纪录的22.5%。虽然两年来希腊政府在打击逃税，改善商业环境及国企私有化方面工作力度很大，但收效甚微。希腊的现实状况已表明该国几乎不可能在2020年实现将债务总额占GDP比重控制在120%以内的目标。

Since two years ago began to accept external since the financial aid,Greek in the recipient condition performance aspects hard to live up to expectations,For two reasons:One is the Greek domestic people to austerity measures extremely antipathy,Has set up a file in the domestic many times a wave of protests;The second is the Greek domestic economy in a great mess,Fiscal income hopeless.At present the Greek has already entered in the 2008 years of the fifth recession years,This year is expected to decline 7%,The unemployment rate climbed to a record 22.5%.Although the two years the Greek government to combat tax evasion,Improve the business environment and state-owned enterprises on a private efforts,But had little effect.The Greek reality has shown that the country is almost impossible to true in 2020 will total debt as a share of GDP control within 120% target.

　　目前，希腊无疑需要国际债权人的更多帮助，最新目标是希望将债务进一步减少700亿至1000亿欧元，将公共债务占GDP之比降至100%的可持续水平。然而，无论是欧央行还是欧元区任何一国政府，都不会再次对希腊债务进行重组。因此，希腊只能寻求国际社会将其财政目标落实期限向后顺延两年。

At present,The Greek international creditors will undoubtedly need more help,The latest goal is to further reduce the debt will be 70 billion to 100 billion euros,The use of public debt to GDP of the gradient to 100% of the sustainable level.however,Whether the central bank or to the eurozone any one country government,Never again told Greek debt restructuring.therefore,Greek can only seek the international community will its financial targets implement period postponed back two years.

　　虽然希腊无法完成改革目标很大程度上源于现实条件的制约，但国际社会已然对其失去耐心，越来越多的人认为，一味援救希腊将徒劳无功，让其退出则是必然之举。近期要求希腊抓紧时间退出欧元区或表示希腊退出欧元区后果可控的声音持续不断，其中不乏欧元区集团主席容克、德国副总理兼经济部长罗斯勒等重量级人物。因此，“三驾马车”（欧盟委员会、欧央行、IMF）即将于9月份公布的希腊对救助目标执行情况的评估报告将极为关键，其或会为希腊争取到更多的时间与空间，或将成为压倒希腊的最后一根稻草。

Although Greece was unable to complete the reform target largely from reality restrictions,But the international community has the lose patience,More and more people think,Blindly rescue Greece will be in vain,Let the exit is necessary for.Recent request Greek take the time to exit the euro area or said Greek exit the eurozone consequences controlled voice constantly,There is no lack of among them the eurozone group chairman RongKe/German deputy prime minister and minister of economic Ross's right-hand man, etc.therefore,"troika"(The European commission/The ECB/IMF)Will be released in September to salvage the Greek goal on the implementation of the evaluation report will be crucial,The or for Greece will buy more time and space,Or will become overwhelmed the Greek the last straw.

　　西班牙地方政府扎堆寻求援助，其寻求全面援助恐为期不远，而意大利或将步其后尘。

The Spanish local government gathers together to seek help,It seeks comprehensive aid will not fear,Instead the Italian or will be following its lead.

　　8月份迅速升级的地方债务危机成为西班牙债务危机新的引爆点。目前，瓦伦西亚地方政府已向中央政府申请35亿欧元的援助贷款，穆尔西亚地方政府也表示可能申请2至3亿欧元的救助资金，占西班牙经济总量1/5、今年拥有超过130亿欧元到期债务的加泰罗尼亚地方政府也表示，正在研究是否申请中央政府援助。此外还有4个地方政府可能步其后尘，包括卡斯蒂利亚-拉曼恰、巴利阿里群岛、加那利群岛和安达卢西亚。随着西班牙各地方政府申援风险上升，政府融资成本急涨，西班牙10年期国债收益率一度飙升至7.8%附近，刷新欧元区成立以来的最高纪录。

In August the rapid upgrade local debt crisis become a Spanish debt crisis new detonating point.At present,Valencia local governments to the central government has for 3.5 billion euros ($) loan aid,Murcia local government also said may apply for 2 to 300 million euro relief funds,Of the Spanish economy 1/5/This year has more than 13 billion euros due debt Catalan local government also said,Are studying whether application with the central government aid.In addition there are four local government may following its lead,Including castilla - Raman just/Balearic islands/Canary islands and Andalusia.As Spain each local government ShenYuan increased risk,The government financing cost to surge,Spain the 10-year Treasury yield once soared to 7.8% nearby,Refresh the euro area since the establishment of the highest record.

　　虽然西班牙中央政府成立了规模为180亿欧元的地方政府救助基金（FLA），但如果地方政府蜂拥求助，该基金恐怕也无能为力。同时，由于西班牙银行业是该国地方债的主要债权人，因此，银行业危机已与地方债务危机形成恶性循环。西班牙央行数据显示，6月份该国银行坏账率接近10%，创50年来新高。当月西班牙银行持有的不良贷款总额增长84亿欧元至1644亿欧元。

Although the central Spanish government established scale for 18 billion euros of local government rescue fund(fla),But if the local government stampede for help,I'm afraid the fund are powerless.At the same time,Since the Spanish banking is the country's local debt main creditor,therefore,Banking crisis has and local debt crisis a vicious cycle.The Spanish central bank data display,June the bank bad debt rate close to 10%,Gen 50 years high.The Spanish bank holdings of non-performing loans grew 8.4 billion euro between 164.4 billion euro.

　　因此，在中央政府融资成本屡创新高、银行业危机不减、地方政府陷入融资困境的情况下，西班牙寻求全面救助恐为期不远。据估计，一旦西班牙政府寻求全面援助，将需要3000亿欧元资金，届时EFSF及ESM都将面临巨大压力。

therefore,In the central government financing cost reached record high/Banking crisis immortalization/The local government financing difficulties in the case,Spain for comprehensive rescue fear in the near future.It is estimated that,Once the Spanish government seeking comprehensive aid,Will need to 300 billion euros funds,At the appointed time EFSF and ESM will face great pressure.

　　西班牙带来的市场不安情绪传导开来，与其同属欧元区大体量国家的意大利或将步其后尘。截至6月末，意大利政府债务环比增加66亿欧元达1.9729万亿欧元，创有史以来最高纪录。其目前的债务占GDP之比高达123.3%，在欧元区排名第二，仅次于希腊。第二季度意大利经济环比收缩0.7%，同比下滑2.5%，为2009年以来最大跌幅。若意大利经济严重衰退，将可能导致意大利银行业今明两年的问题资产规模高于此前预期水平，并高于欧洲其他国家银行业。标准普尔预计，到2013年末，意大利银行业问题资产规模将升至2180亿欧元。虽然意大利政府一直十分抗拒向欧盟申请援助，但如果债务问题一直恶化下去，恐其最终不得不向现实低头。

The Spanish bring market unease conduction apart,With the eurozone countries belong to the DaTiLiang Italian or will be following its lead.By the end of June,The Italian government debt chain add 6.6 billion euro 1.9729 trillion euros,And the record.Its current debt to GDP ratio as high as 123.3%,In the euro zone ranked second,After Greece.The second quarter Italian economic link shrinkage 0.7%,Fell 2.5% year-on-year,For 2009 years the largest decline since.If the Italian economy a serious recession,The banking industry may lead to Italy in the next two years problem asset scale higher than previously expected,And higher than those of other European countries banking.Standard &poor's expects,To the end of 2013,Italian banking problem asset scale will rise to 218 billion euros.Although the Italian government has been very resist to the European Union aid application,But if the debt problems fester forever,Fear of its final had to bow to reality.

　　出口深受打击 Export deeply shocked by

　　——日本金融形势评论

- Japan's financial situation review

　　8月份，日本经济仍保持着徘徊反复的格局。

In August,Japan's economy is still kept wandering repeated pattern.

　　日本内阁府数据显示，二季度日本实际GDP环比增长0.3%，折算年率增长1.4%，虽为连续第4个季度实现正增长，但与今年一季度5.5%的年率增幅相比减速明显，也远低于预期的2.2%。5月份日本机械订单额环比下降14.8%至6719亿日元，其中制造业订单额减少8%，化工、石油、煤炭制品等行业降幅尤为明显。

The Japanese cabinet office data display,The second quarter Japan real GDP growth of 0.3% annulus,Reduced 1.4% annual rate,Although for the fourth consecutive season achieve positive growth,But at an annual rate of 5.5% in the first quarter of this year compared to increase speed obviously,Also far lower than expected 2.2%.May the Japanese machinery orders frontal link has decreased by 14.8% to 671.9 billion yen,The manufacturing order amount reduced by 8%,chemical/oil/Coal products industry is particularly obvious drop.

　　日本财务省数据显示，今年上半年日本贸易逆差达29158亿日元，创1979年有可比数据以来的半年度最高纪录。其原因有二：一是上半年因核电站停止运转导致火力发电所需液化天然气和原油的进口涨幅分别达到50%和16%；二是欧债危机和日元币值历史性飙升导致出口增长乏力，今年上半年日本对欧盟地区贸易顺差跌至历史最低水平。

Japan's finance ministry data display,In the first half of this year a Japanese trade deficit of 2.9158 trillion yen,Gen 1979 years have comparable data since the semi-annual record.For two reasons:One is for nuclear power plant in the first half to stop operation for thermal power liquefied natural gas and crude oil imports rose 50% and 16% respectively;The second is the debt crisis and the yen currency historic surge lead to export growth lack of power,In the first half of this year Japan to the eu regional trade surplus fell to the lowest level in history.

　　未来，日本经济还将面临以下困境：一是欧债危机仍是日本经济的最大外部威胁，其导致的避险资金涌入使得日元面临兑美元和欧元同步升值的压力，对日本出口与实体经济打击严重；二是日本经济主要依靠政府刺激措施，缺乏持续增长动力，一旦刺激消失，日本经济就会疲弱。而环保车补贴政策9月初即将到期，灾后重建带来的公共投资增长也将在未来几个月持续减少；三是能源价格反弹将使灾后关闭核能增加石油进口的成本攀升；四是美国等海外经济体仍未摆脱经济放缓，加之中国经济增长势头略有减退导致的全球需求低迷对日本出口影响颇为严重。数据显示，6月份日本对中国出口下降7.3%至1.03万亿日元，对欧盟出口骤跌21.3%至5194亿日元。

The future,Japan's economy will face the dilemma:One is the debt crisis is still the Japanese economy's biggest to external threats,The cause of the hedge funds into makes the yen against the dollar and the euro facing the pressure of appreciation of synchronization,Export to Japan with the entity economy serious blow;The second is the Japanese economy mainly relying on government stimulus measures,Lack of sustained growth power,Once the stimulus disappear,Japan's economy will be weak.And environmental protection car subsidy policy early September is about to expire,Post-disaster reconstruction bring public investment growth in the next few months will also continue to decrease;The third is energy prices rebound will make post-disaster closed nuclear energy increase the cost of oil imports climbed;The fourth is the United States and other overseas economies is still not get rid of the economic slowdown,Together with China's economic growth momentum decreased slightly lead to global demand downturn on the Japanese export influence rather serious.Data display,June from Japan to China exports fell 7.3% to 1.03 trillion yen,Exports to Europe suddenly fell 21.3% to 519.4 billion yen.

　　虽然日本央行目前仍采取观望态度维持基准利率0~0.1%不变，同时维持资产购买规模70万亿日元不变，但若美联储推出更多量化宽松政策推高日元，从而威胁到日本的出口和经济复苏，相信日本央行也将采取应对措施。

Although the bank of Japan is still wait-and-see attitude to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged 0 ~ 0.1%,At the same time maintain asset purchase scale 70 trillion yen unchanged,But if the fed introduce more quantitative easing policy GaoRiYuan push,Thus threat to Japan's export and economic recovery,Believe that the bank of Japan will also take responsive measures.

　　国内资本加速外流 Domestic capital outflow of acceleration

　　——人民币国际化进程评论

- RMB internationalization process review

　　人民币对美元出现阶段性贬值，国内资本现外流加速迹象。

The RMB against the us dollar devaluation in stages,Domestic capital outflow of signs is accelerated.

　　7月份以来，美元指数一路攀升，多次站在了83以上的高位，相应地则是人民币汇率出现贬值趋势和预期，人民币对美元汇率中间价不断创出年内新低。以7月31日美元对人民币6.3320的中间价计算，7月份人民币对美元小幅贬值0.11%，为今年第4次出现单月贬值。远期汇率方面，7月31日海外NDF市场上，美元对人民币1年期NDF汇价交投在6.4350附近，显示出海外投资者预期一年后人民币相对于美元将出现1.60%左右的贬值。从月度均值来看，7月份反映的1年后人民币兑美元贬值预期均值为1.51%，与6月份的平均1.55%相比差别不大，显示境外投资者对人民币远期贬值的预期渐成共识。

Since July,The dollar index climbed all the way,Multiple station in the more than 83 high,Accordingly it is the exchange rate for the renminbi devaluation appears the trend and expected,The RMB against the us dollar exchange rate the middle price continual create year low.On July 31, dollars for RMB 6.3320 middle rate calculation,The RMB against the us dollar in July small devaluation 0.11%,For the fourth time this year in odd-numbered months devaluation.Forward exchange rate in,July 31 NDF market overseas,The us dollar to RMB 1 10-year NDF exchange trading in near 6.4350,Shows that overseas investors expected a year later the yuan against the dollar will appear 1.60% of devaluation.From the monthly mean to see,July 1 years reflects the us dollar depreciation expected was an average of 1.51%,In June and the average 1.55% compared with difference,Shows that foreign investors to RMB forward depreciation of the expected gradually become a consensus.

　　究其原因，首先在美国经济数据利好和欧洲经济数据利空的双重因素影响下，避险资金流入美国导致美元走强，人民币被动贬值。 数据显示，5月份美国国际资本净流入突破1000亿美元，达1017亿美元。而在4月份，此一数据还是净流出82亿美元；其次，随着外需弱化、各生产要素及劳动力成本上升，也导致中国出口能力的下降。今年上半年，我国经常项目顺差832亿美元，同比下降5%，经常项目顺差与GDP之比为2.3%，较上年下降0.5个百分点。资本和金融项目在一季度出现511亿美元顺差后，二季度再现净流出714亿美元，上半年逆差额达203亿美元。

Investigate its reason,First of all in the economic data in the us is good and the European economic data bad double under the influence factors,Hedge funds into the United States lead to stronger dollar,RMB passive devaluation. Data display,May the United States international inflows has exceeded 100 billion us dollars,Us $101.7 billion.In April,The data or net outflows of $8.2 billion;secondly,Along with the overseas market demand weakening/Various factors of production and labor costs rose,Also leads to a reduction in the ability to China's export.In the first half of this year,Our country current account surplus of $83.2 billion,5% year-on-year drop,A current account surplus and the ratio of GDP is 2.3%,A last year dropped 0.5%.Capital and financial project in quarter appear $51.1 billion after the surplus,The second quarter reproduce net outflows of $71.4 billion,In the first half of the deficit amounted to $20.3 billion.

　　但需要注意的是，人民币阶段性贬值仅相对于美元而言，而对大多数货币则继续走强。国际清算银行数据显示，上半年人民币名义和实际有效汇率分别升值1.6%和0.9%。而且与其他新兴市场货币对美元贬值幅度相比，人民币的贬值幅度仍相对较小。

But need to pay attention to is,RMB devaluation stage only relative to the dollar,But for the majority of the currency is still going strong.The bank for international settlements data display,In the first half of the RMB nominal and real effective exchange rate appreciation of 1.6% and 0.9% respectively.And other emerging market currencies against the us dollar depreciation range compared,The depreciation of the RMB amplitude is still relatively small.

　　香港多举措推动人民币离岸市场发展，促进人民币国际化进程加速推进。

Hong Kong many measures to promote an offshore RMB market development,To promote the internationalization of RMB accelerating speed.

　　一是自8月1日起，非香港居民可在香港银行开设人民币账户，并可用此账户进行人民币与港币的兑换，以及人民币股票、基金和债券的投资，而且，每日兑换人民币和跨行转账的数量没有限制。

One is from August 1,The Hong Kong residents in Hong Kong Banks to open the account,And can use this account for the exchange RMB and Hong Kong dollars,And the yuan stock/Funds and bonds investment,and,The daily exchange RMB and the number of an inter-bank transfer is the limit.

　　这一举措意味着人民币国际化又迈出了一大步。首先，内地居民可将人民币资金投放到香港市场获益，有助于增加香港人民币数量；其次，可扩大香港银行的服务范围，加强产品创新，推动人民币离岸市场发展；第三，有助于人民币在个人层面从香港走向国际。

The move means that RMB internationalization and taken a big step.First of all,Mainland residents will be RMB funds in the Hong Kong market benefit,Help to increase the number of Hong Kong;secondly,Hong Kong Banks can enlarge the scope of services,Strengthen product innovation,Promote the RMB off-shore market development;The third,Help to RMB at the personal level from Hong Kong to go into the international.

　　然而，该措施也有助于非香港居民在在岸市场（CNY）及香港离岸市场（CNH）之间进行汇率套利，对大陆的汇率形成机制和外汇资本管制形成挑战。

however,The measure also helps to the Hong Kong people in the market(CNY)And Hong Kong offshore market(CNH)The exchange rate between arbitrage,In the mainland's exchange rate formation mechanism and foreign exchange capital controls formation challenge.

　　二是自8月6日起扩大“人证港币交易通”的涵盖范围，由目前只适用于人民币股票扩展至以人民币交易的股本相关交易所买卖基金及房地产投资信托基金。此举有利于在港上市人民币证券的长远发展，加快香港人民币离岸市场的形成。然而，由于香港市场上首只人民币股票一直没有出现，因此该举措的实际效果尚待观察。

The second is from August 6, up to expand"Testimony of witness hk trading pass"Coverage of,By now only applies to the extended to stock in RMB trading equity related exchange-traded fund and real estate investment trust fund.It is beneficial to the listing in Hong Kong securities of long-term development,To speed up the formation of an offshore RMB Hong Kong market.however,Since the Hong Kong market first only RMB stock has not appeared,Therefore the move of the actual effect is yet to be observed.