在投资界，巴菲特俨然成为价值投资的鼻祖，每一句智慧言语都被业内奉为圭臬，其中滚雪球一说成为时尚。凡投资人士，言必称滚雪球。可问题是，又有多少人能把资产的雪球滚起来？老巴认为，雪球滚起来必须有两大前提：1、朝着有雪的方向滚；2、有足够长的草坡。换到投资领域里，不言而喻，有雪的方向指盈利的方向，足够长的草坡指足够长的时间。简言之，找到正确的投资方法并坚持，雪球自然会越滚越大。

In the capital,Buffett peremptory became the ancestor of the value investment,Each sentence words of wisdom is as the standard in the industry,The snowball said become fashion.People who invest,Say snowball.But the problem is,How many people can put the assets of the snowball rolling?Old and think,Snowball rolling must have two major premise:1/Toward the direction of the snow roll;2/The grassy slope is long enough.In the investment field,It goes without saying that,The direction of the snow to the direction of the profit,The grassy slope long enough to long enough.In short,Find the right investment method and stick to,Snowball will naturally more the roll.

　　安全边际与成长性 Margin of safety and growth

　　世间投资方法有很多，价值投资也好，趋势投资也罢，其实就结果而言，能帮助我们持续并且稳定盈利的方法，就是正确的投资方法。经过多年的实践摸索，我们认为坚持价值投资是能够获得持续稳定的盈利的，当然其前提是，不能脱离了基本的趋势判断。从这个意义上讲，所谓价值投资与趋势投资并非那么泾渭分明。所谓价值投资，不过就是股价低于内在价值买入，高于内在价值沽出。

The world there are many ways to investment,Value investment or,Trend investment or,The results are concerned,Can help us sustained and stable earnings method,It is the right investment approach.After many years of practicing,We think that adhere to the value investment is able to acquire sustained and stable earnings,Of course the premise is,Cannot be separated from the basic tendency of judgment.In this sense,The so-called value investment and trend investment is not so entirely different.The so-called value investment,But is lower than the intrinsic value of the stock to buy,Higher than the intrinsic value write a.

　　事实上，价值投资有两个核心要素：安全边际与成长性。所谓安全边际，无外乎就是认为我买的资产足够安全，安全的定义是什么？格雷?厄姆所说的以低于内在价值的价格购买，应该就是对安全边际的理解。至于成长性，显然就是希望我买的资产未来会增值，若资产是上市公司，则代表公司的业绩有提升并且提升预期会反映到股价的变化上。

In fact,The value investment has two core elements:Margin of safety and growth.The so-called margin of safety,Outside notting have is think I buy assets enough safety,What is the definition of safety?gray?He said eritrea to lower than the price of the intrinsic value of the purchase,Should be to the understanding of the margin of safety.As for the growth,Obviously is hope I buy assets value will be in the future,If the assets are listed companies,Represents the company's performance has improve and upgrade is expected to reflect the change of the share price.

　　安全边际是保证买入成本，成长性是保证我未来收益。这两个是不可偏废的。否则就是僵化地理解价值投资。事实上，安全边际与成长性这两个词，本身就是含有趋势判断的。当公司的股价足够低于内在价值的时候，安全边际就出来了，这里的趋势判断的难点就在于我们怎么知道内在的价值几何？而在趋势低迷的时候内在价值是否也会打折扣？

Margin of safety is to guarantee the purchase cost,Growth is to ensure that my future earnings.The two is the humanoriented.Otherwise it is rigid understanding of the value investment.In fact,Margin of safety and growth these two words,Is itself contains trend judgment.When a company's share price is lower than the internal value of enough time,Margin of safety came out,The trend of the difficulty of judgment is how do we know the inner value geometry?And in the trend of the downturn when whether the intrinsic value is likely to be limited?

　　另外，对于成长性，也是基于对公司发展趋势的判断。而且落到投资这个点上，我们还需要加上一个判断：即这种成长性是否已经部分或全部甚至已经过度地反应到了股价的走势看？所以，我们说，价值投资的两个关键要素，本身就是个动态的变量，需要我们辩证看待，不断跟踪并及时调整。

In addition,For the growth,The company is based on the development trend of the judgment.And fell on investment is the point,We also need to add a judgment:It is that such growth is part or all has even overly reaction to the share price trend to see?so,We say,The value investment two key elements,Itself is a dynamic variable,We need the dialectical view,Constantly tracking and adjust.

　　两个当然 Two of course

　　当下的环境还适合做价值投资吗？当然！事实上，即使惨淡如今的指数表现，我们仍然能发现一些优质品种，而它们的上涨并非全都是资金、题材或情绪使然，相当一部分仍是因为价值的发现、成长的体现而最终表现在股票价格的上扬。以消费类个股为代表，不仅企业自身具备了永续经营的能力，而且给股东带来了不错的回报，这些品种的成色显然更“蓝”。基于安全边际与成长性的辩证理解，投资它们，难道不能从价值投资中获益吗？

The environment is suitable for the value investment?Of course!In fact,Even if is pale and today's performance index,We still can find some high quality varieties,And their rise is not is all funds/Subject matter or the result of moods,Quite a few still because of the discovery of value/The embodiment of the growth performance and eventually in the stock price rise.To consumer stocks as a representative,Not only enterprise itself has the ability of sustainable management,And to shareholders brought good return,These varieties are more clearly"blue".Based on the margin of safety and growth of dialectical understanding,Investment they,Can't benefit from the value investment?

　　当下我们还要坚持投资蓝筹股吗？当然！这并非是为了响应号召，而是为了我们自己的腰包。事实上，蓝筹股在最近十多年的股市变迁中，一直在默默地发生着变化。当我们通过投资拉动GDP时，钢铁、水泥、基建这些重化工业的代表成为了蓝筹股的中流砥柱，曾经的五朵金花成为那个时代的烙印；当我们通过虚拟经济支持实体经济的发展路径时，虚拟经济获得了超常规的发展，虚拟经济的代表——金融和地产成为当仁不让的新蓝筹表率，“招保万金，一时无两”；可如今，当我们下定决心排除万难进行产业升级与结构调整的时候，我们的新蓝筹又在哪里？

Then we have to insist on investment blue chip?Of course!It is not in order to respond to the call,But for our own pockets.In fact,Blue chip in recent ten years in the stock market change,Has been quietly changing.When we pulled through investment in GDP,Iron and steel/cement/Infrastructure these heavy chemical industry representative became the mainstay of the blue chip stock,Once the five golden flowers become that the branding of the ages;When we through the virtual economy support entity economic development path,Virtual economy won the transnormal development,Representatives of the virtual economy, finance and real estate become brings out the new blue chip model,"Recruit the gold,At that time no two";But now,When we made up his mind to overcome all difficulties in industrial upgrading and structure adjustment time,Our new blue chip and where is it?

　　新的蓝筹在哪里 The new blue chip in where

　　从历史和经济发展规律来推演，下一个重点应是内需。个人消费时代的来临，意味着个人消费进入爆点，个中的产业机会必将催生新的蓝筹品种。富可敌国的苹果公司即是代表，那下一个中国的苹果在哪里？而从产业结构的升级与转型角度理解，传统制造业无论如何刺激，始终摆脱不了产能过剩的历史命运，未来更多的机遇和亮点，集中在先进制造业、节能与环保等更多在产业链上端的公司，它们必将攫取更多的社会份额和利润，难道这些不是新时代所赋予的新蓝筹机遇？

From the historical and economic law of development to inference,The next key should be domestic demand.Personal consumption age,Means that the personal consumption into the critical point,A chance to the industry will lead to new blue chip varieties.Its fabulously rich apple is representative,The next China's apple in where?And from the upgrading of industrial structure and transformation Angle understanding,The traditional manufacturing industry no matter how to boost,Always can't get away from the historical destiny of excess capacity,The future more opportunities and window,Focus on advanced manufacturing industry/Energy-saving and environmental protection in the industry chain more top company,They will grab more social share and profit,Are these not the new age has given new blue-chip opportunity?

　　或许我们无法猜测出市场的拐点，但有一点，坚持趋势判断下的价值投资，坚持辩证客观地理解新蓝筹，理性投资，必能为我们带来持续而稳定的盈利回报。

Maybe we can't guess market inflection point,But having a bit,Adhere to the trend of the value investment,Dialectical objectively understand new blue chip,Rational investment,Will bring for our continuous and stable profit return.