近来，金改实验颇有方兴未艾之势。先是温州金改，后有6月国务院给足深圳前海金融政策。

recently,Gold there is quite a change experiment is in the ascendant trend.First wenzhou gold change,The state council after June to foot shenzhen sea before financial policy.

　　然而，从简单的市场法则及经济规律等方面来看，用先行先试的手段来打破市场整体的统一性，划分某片区域，进行金融改革创新试验有很大的局限性。因为，金融市场是整个社会经济活动的货币表现形态。毕竟“世界是平的”，资金是流动的，当某个地方的GDP增长率、资本回报率高于其他周边地区时，会形成一种资金聚集的投资洼地，大量套利博弈的资金流入，直至引起其套利的前提条件消失，这就是“利率平价理论”对金融市场的诠释。

however,From simple market law and economic law wait for a respect to look,Use first foretaste means to break the unity of the whole market,Division a certain area,Carry on the financial reform and innovation test with great limitations.because,Financial market is the whole social economic activities of currency performance form.After all"The world is flat",Money is flowing,When a local GDP growth rate/Return on capital higher than other peripheral region,Can form a kind of funds gathered investment depression,A large number of arbitrage game capital inflows,Until the arbitrage caused the premise condition of disappear,This is"Interest rate parity theory"On the financial market interpretation.

　　欧美也存在金融管制，但却无政府倡导金融改革试验区，因为管制与放开市场是政府行为，在市场经济条件下，金融机构要绕开管制，唯有创新。

Europe and the United States are also financial control,But non-governmental advocacy financial reform pilot area,For control and let go of the market is the government behavior,Under the condition of market economy,Financial institutions should steer clear of control,Only innovation.

　　金融实验不可行 Financial experimental infeasible

　　纵观世界各国百多年来的金融创新发展史，实际上是管制与放松的博弈过程。金融管制对金融创新有一定的促进作用。

The countries all over the world in more than years of history of financial innovation,In fact is the control and relaxed game process.Financial control on the financial innovation have a certain role in promoting.

　　上世纪70年代，世界经济大变局中金融创新层出不穷、创新浪潮波澜起伏。那些 “可转让存款单”、“负债管理”、“混合账户”、“出售应收账款”、“福费廷”、“货币互换”、“零息债券”，等等，几乎找不到任何一项源自所谓的“金融实验区”。

In the 1970 s,The world economy in the long time of financial innovation emerge in endlessly/The innovation of the ups and downs of the wave.Those who "Negotiable certificate of deposit"/"Liability management"/"Mixed account"/"Sale accounts receivable"/"forfeiting"/"Currency swap"/"Zero coupon bonds",, etc,Almost can't find any a derived from the so-called"Financial experimental area".

　　从规范的市场经济体制来看，有效的市场竞争主要包括三个方面的内容：一是竞争必须公平；二是竞争必须相对充分；三是竞争必须有序。显然，所谓的“金融实验区”与此相悖。

From the normative market economic system to see,Effective market competition, mainly includes three aspects of content:One is the competition must be fair;The second is the competition must be relatively full;The third is the competition must be ordered.obviously,The so-called"Financial experimental area"And inconsistent conclusions.

　　换言之，金融市场是整个社会经济活动以货币形态来表现的浓缩。金融实验的本意在于用小范围的、局部的试验得来的数据来预测、推导、掌控大范围的全局的经济发展趋势、规律。

In other words,Financial market is the whole social economic activity in monetary form to the concentration of the performance.Financial experiment of original meaning lies in small range/Local test from data to predict/derivation/Control over a wide range of global economic development trend/law.

　　如果基于市场充分竞争与参与的前提下的“金融实验”是可行的，经济预测及相关的金融风险就是可以控制和预防的，计划经济的实施就是可能的，百余年来席卷全球的数次经济危机与金融风暴绝不可能发生，市场经济与资本流动等自由竞争法则将一文不名。巴菲特曾经说，“能够预测市场走势的人，我一个也没见到过。”

If fully based on market competition and participation in the premise of"Financial experiment"Is feasible,Economic forecast and related financial risk that can control and prevention,The implementation of planned economy is possible,Hundred years across the global times economic crisis and the financial storm could never happen,Market economy and capital flow and free competition law will be broke.Buffett said,"To be able to predict the market trends, man,I haven't seen."

　　金融市场是社会经济以货币的表现形态，其参与者是整个社会的所有人。市场是很复杂的，人为地阻断与改变其周边环境只能使问题更复杂。

Financial market is the social economy with monetary forms,The participants is the whole society of all people.The market is very complicated,Artificially block and change the surrounding environment can only make the problem more complex.

　　1992年的股票抽签发行就是一个很著名的例子。当年的新股发行有意在深圳经济特区这个小范围进行试验，相关部门对当时深圳的人口数量、银行储蓄总额、可能动用的游资，以及相应的新股发行量都进行了精确的计算与分析，继而发布公告将此次新股认购的中签率定为10%。消息传开，全国各地资金汹涌汇入，数以十万计的准股民携带大捆的身份证前来深圳抽签。一时间，弊端丛生、秩序大乱。自此，新股发行由网上公开申购取而代之，新股抽签面向全国所有民众，真正实现“公开、公平、公正”的三公原则。

1992 years of stock draw issue is a very famous example.The new shares issued in shenzhen special economic zone to the small range test,Related departments to shenzhen population at that time/Total bank deposits/May the use of hot money,And the corresponding new shares are issued the accurate calculation and analysis,Then the new shares issued will subscribe for ZhongQianLv as 10%.News spread,All parts of the country into capital surge,Hundreds of thousands of quasi people carry bale id card to come to shenzhen draw.time,Malpractice cluster/In disorder.Since then,New shares issued by online public subscription instead,Facing the new draw all people,realize"public/fair/justice"Openness principle of.

　　中国有太多的金融改革创新实验区，都是手握批文、号称国家级的，这与各地政府对资金如饥似渴地追逐有关。

China has too many financial reform and innovation experimental plot,Are hand written instructions to a subordinate/So-called national,This and local governments to fund thirstily chase relevant.

　　可是30年来，这些金融改革实验区里又诞生了多少“创新”而值得仿效和推广并为人津津乐道呢？殊不知，某些从国外借鉴来的所谓的“机构创新”，在其他省市的任何一地都有可能萌生。厚此薄彼，对所谓金改实验区而言，这完全是一种政策套利，是一种计划经济条件下、国家金融垄断下的有计划有限度地放开，让部分地区捷足先登，把国外现成的模式拿来仿造，毫无创新的技术含量可言。

But 30 years,These financial reform in the experimental area and how much was born"innovation"And worth imitate and promotion and real watercooler moment??Little imagine,Some from abroad to reference the so-called"Mechanism innovation",Other provinces and cities in any one place may initiation.Play favorites,To the so-called gold change in experimental plot,This is an entirely policy arbitrage,Is a kind of plan economy condition/The national finance monopoly of the planned limited let go,Let the parts,The foreign ready-made mode for counterfeit,There is no innovative technology in content.

　　搞金改实验是用计划经济的思维来管理市场经济。经济学家哈耶克指出，计划经济为什么行不通，因为它假定计划者是全知全能的，经济活动是完全可以预知预测的，因而一切经济活动都是可以计划的。

Make gold change experiment is to use the planned economy to the market economy management thinking.Economists pointed out that hayek,Planned economy why won't work,Because it assumes that planners are the all-effective,Economic activity is completely can predict forecast,Therefore all economic activities are can plan.

　　创新误区 Innovation error

　　目前，因香港地区贷款利率较内地贷款利率低，香港的人民币贷款无疑对内地企业有较强吸引力，而中国央行也在谋划香港地区的大规模人民币资金池能有更好的回流途径。因此，金融机构的跨境贷款是深圳前海金融改革试点的亮点之一。

At present,Because Hong Kong is the mainland loan interest rate loan interest rates low,Hong Kong's RMB loan is to mainland companies have a strong appeal,And China's central bank also in Hong Kong area planning large-scale RMB funds pool can have a better return way.therefore,Financial institutions cross-border loan is shenzhen sea before one of financial reform pilot window.

　　跨境贷款其实算不上什么金融创新，毕竟，跨境贷款在理论上成立，在技术操作上可行，在全国任何一家银行都可以无障碍实施。在资讯发达的互联网时代，从香港的银行汇一笔款到天津、上海，或者深圳前海，速度一样，前海的所谓地理优势也就淡化了。然而，该项业务若放在深圳前海，谓之“金融创新”；若是其他区域，则算是“违法违规”吗？

Cross-border loans actually is not what financial innovation,After all,Cross-border loan was established in theory,Technically feasible,In the whole nation any bank can barrier-free implementation.In the information developed the Internet age,From Hong Kong bank remit money to arrive a tianjin/Shanghai,Or shenzhen sea before,The same speed as the,Former sea of so-called geographical advantages it has weakened the.however,If the business in shenzhen sea before,money"Financial innovation";If other area,Is a"illegal"??

　　还应看到，中国对资本项下的开放一向持审慎的态度。

Should also see,China's capital captioned open always be wary.

　　例如2006年6月，国务院鼓励天津滨海新区进行金融改革和创新，国家外汇管理局随后亦高调宣布在天津滨海新区进行试点，“允许境内居民以自有外汇或人民币购汇直接投资境外证券市场，初期首选香港。”香港股市曾经为此亢奋了好长一段时间，但6年过去了，“港股直通车”遥遥无期。

For example in June 2006,The state council to encourage the tianjin binhai new area for financial reform and innovation,The state administration of foreign exchange and then also high-profile announced a pilot project in tianjin binhai new area,"Allows domestic residents to self-owned foreign exchange purchase or RMB foreign direct investment in the securities market,Initial preferred Hong Kong."Hong Kong stock market had therefore stimulated for a long time,But over the past six years the,"Hong Kong equities through train"are65.

　　2012年3月，国务院决定设立温州市金融综合改革试验区，其中之一项内容是，“研究开展个人境外个人直接投资试点，探索建立规范便捷的直接投资渠道。”在外人看来，这借道温州的资本项目开放已是箭在弦上，然而至今依然引而不发。

In march of 2012,The state council has decided to set up wenzhou financial comprehensive reform pilot area,One of them is a content,"Research carried out individual foreign direct investment in the individual pilot,Exploring to establish a standardized convenient direct investment channels."From outsider's point of view,This tailgating wenzhou's capital project open has been a point of no return,But so far YinErBuFa still.

　　这次深圳同样重提涉及资本项目开放的“探索拓宽境外人民币资金回流渠道；探索跨境贷款”等敏感问题。结果如何，尚难断定。

The shenzhen also revert involves capital project open"Explore broaden overseas RMB to return channel;Explore cross-border loan"Sensitive problems such as.The result,Is still difficult to conclude that.

　　有人认为，前海与天津、温州不同，处于边境地区与香港地区隔海相望，有大桥跨海相连，这是最大的卖点之一，也是它惑众的原因之一。

Some people think that,Sea before and tianjin/Wenzhou different,In the border areas and Hong Kong area facing each other across the sea,A bridge connected to sea,This is one of the biggest selling point,It is one of the reasons for the delude the people with.

　　然而另一方面，不妨设想前海试验的定位模式：一、香港的一块飞地，金融政策上按香港法律法规运作；二、深圳特区的一部分；三、深圳与香港两地相连的混合体。

But on the other hand,Might as well imagine sea before test orientation mode:a/Hong Kong's a enclave,Financial policy laws and regulations according to the Hong Kong operation;two/Part of the shenzhen special economic zone;three/Shenzhen and Hong Kong mix together.

　　从目前的情况看，实施第一种运作模式很难，因要引入大批香港的金融机构入驻。而第二种模式与第三种模式则是现状与期待目标的交错，尤其是第三种模式颇有诱惑，但假如中国金融监管部门限定资本项目的一切开放与运作都须经前海的银行进出，则会形成漏斗效应，吸引众多金融机构入驻，造成前海表面的繁荣，却加大了操作成本，走了弯路，反而是对追求改革创新目标的亵渎。

From the present situation to see,It is difficult to implement the first operation mode,In order to introduce a large number of Hong Kong's financial institutions established.And the second mode and the third mode is the present situation and looking forward to target staggered,Especially in the third kind of pattern quite have the temptation,But if China's financial supervision department limited capital of all open and operation are subject to sea before in the bank,Will form funnel effect,Attract many financial institutions established,Before the boom caused by push,But increases the operation cost,Walked curved road,It is the reform and innovation of the pursuit of goals against.

　　另一方面，前期出境后的人民币在香港无法使用，香港银行吸收的人民币存款找不到受贷者，于是业界吁请开辟回流渠道的呼声渐高，但人民币的回流形式有两种，一种是以债务的形式回流，即境内企业向香港的银行借入人民币，形成对外负债；另一种形式则是债权的回流，指香港的人民币持有者通过出口贸易付款，或者在外汇市场上抛售人民币，最终由中银香港接盘，以对货币占有权力的让渡形式，让流到境外的人民币重新回到其货币发行地，这两种回流的方式是有本质区别的。但其共同点是一样的：距离不是问题。

On the other hand,After the early exit of RMB in Hong Kong is not able to use,Hong Kong bank absorption of RMB deposit can't find those by credit,So the industry appealed to open up return channel call gradually tall,But the RMB is backflow form has two kinds,A debt is in the form of reflux,That is a domestic enterprise to Hong Kong bank borrowing yuan,Form foreign liabilities;Another kind of form is creditor's rights backflow,Refer to Hong Kong's RMB holders through the export trade payment,Or in the foreign exchange market selling RMB,Finally by the bank of China (Hong Kong) flange,For the assignment of the right to form of currency,Let flow to overseas yuan back to its currency to issue,These two kinds of reflux way is to have the essential difference.But their common point is the same:Distance is not a problem.

　　显然，前海金融试验区欲实施的是第一种回流方式，即跨境贷款。然而时过境迁，如今人民币汇率已掉头向下，香港的人民币存款亦在萎缩，故贷款利率必步步攀升，香港银行与内地企业未必能共享“双赢”局面。

obviously,Sea before the implementation of financial pilot to is the first kind of reflux mode,Namely cross-border loan.However as time passes by,Now the RMB exchange rate has been turned down,Hong Kong's RMB deposit also in atrophy,The loan interest rate will rise at every step,Bank of Hong Kong and the mainland enterprise may not be Shared"win-win"situation.

　　再且，2011年第四季度至今，各方面数据显示，中国一直在面临较大规模的短期资本外流，美国次贷危机及欧债危机爆发以来导致国际资本流动的方向与规模频繁变化，令中国加快资本账户开放的战略慎之又慎。

Again and,Since the fourth quarter of 2011,The data shows,China has been faced with a large short-term capital outflow,The us subprime mortgage crisis and the debt crisis since the outbreak of the lead to international capital flow direction and scale the frequent change,Make China to speed up the capital account liberalization strategic options.

　　寻觅政策套利 Seek policy arbitrage

　　据了解，目前有许多大型的国内外机构都与前海签订了投资意向，“意向”表明它们都在观望，在寻觅由政策驱动带来的商机。

It is understood,There are many large domestic and foreign institutions and the former sea signed investment intention,"intention"Show that they are looking at,Looking for opportunities brought by policy drive.

　　实际上，利用政策套利的动机与欲望一直是市场经济的参与者的本质使然。典型的事例如深圳南山高新技术开发区，开园之初招商，好多号称高科技的企业鱼贯而入，然而几年运作以来，真正与高新技术沾边的而且兴办实业的企业并不多，倒是不少公司低价拿地盖起了写字楼出租获利，等于变相搞起了房地产。

In fact,Use policy arbitrage motivation and desire of the market economy has been the essence of the participants result.The typical things such as shenzhen nanshan high-tech development zone,At the beginning of the KaiYuan investment promotion,A lot of so-called high-tech enterprise file into,However a few years since the operation,Real and high and new technology during and initiate industrial enterprise is not much,It is a lot of company with low to built office rent profit,Equal to the real estate taken in disguised form.

　　虽然，在金融试验区里对金融理论与实践创新、进行浓缩般的升华与推广是不可能的。但是，对金融试验区的向往却可以理解，因为，一旦手握中央特殊政策的批文，则可吸引八方资金，财源滚滚来。

although,In the financial test site for financial theory and practice innovation/For enrichment of sublimation and promotion is not possible.but,On the financial pilot yearning can understand,because,Once the hand central special approval of the policy,It can attract eight party funds,Fortune to.

　　然而令人困惑的是，在市场经济里，经济法规的制定与实施、管制与放松的尺度，皆由政府为之，是故由政府操办金融试验区似有政策红利的私相授受之嫌。

However disconcerting,In the market economy,The formulation and implementation of economic laws and regulations/Control and relaxed scale,All is due to the government to,It is by the government make arrangements financial test site seems to be policy dividend private phase of giving too.

　　又及，厚此薄彼、特批牌照之“伪创新”，此乃中国金融改革实验之误区，诚如创新与违规之角色随意转换、或曰唯物与唯心仅一念之差，宛如真理与谬误之距仅一步之遥。

postscript,Play favorites/Notarized by the licence"Pseudo innovation",This is China's financial reform experiment of error,As innovation and the role of random conversion/Or yue materialism and idealism only a momentary slip,Just like the truth and falsehood from only one step away.