大卫·温特斯(David Winters)是冬青树基金（Wintergreen Fund）的投资经理，截至6月30日，该基金的前十大持股是：怡和控股集团7.8％、英美烟草公司6.0％、奥驰亚集团有限公司5.1％、伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司4.9％、斯沃琪集团4.6％、帝国烟草集团有限公司4.4％、富兰克林4.2％、菲利普莫里斯国际公司4.0％、云顶马来西亚3.9％、万事达卡3.9％。前10名总共占其管理资产的48.8％。他最近接受了Wealth Track的采访，下面摘录部分内容。

David winters(David Winters)Is Holly fund(Wintergreen Fund)Investment manager,As of June 30,The fund's top ten shareholding is:Jardine matheson holding group 7.8%/British American tobacco company 6.0%/Mr Chi and group co., LTD. 5.1%/Berkshire hathaway 4.9%/Swatch group 4.6%/Empire tobacco group co., LTD. 4.4%/Franklin 4.2%/Philip morris international company 4.0%/Cloud top 3.9% of Malaysia/Mastercard 3.9%.Top 10 of the total 48.8% of assets under management.He recently received a Wealth Track interview,Excerpts from the part.

　　市场的误解 Market misunderstandings

　　“由于在金融危机的影响下股市持续下跌，大众认为股市将不会再次出现大幅上涨的机会，这是人们对市场的误解。另一方面，这对于我们这种一直研究股票市场不离不弃的人是一个机会。大众远离市场，造成了市场上股票价格低于其内在价值，留给我们巨大的投资机会。” 温特斯认为，美国股市的估值是有吸引力的，特别是相对于美国国债极低的收益率。

"Because the financial crisis under the influence of the stock market continued to drop,The public think the stock market will not appear again sharply rising opportunity,This is the people to the misunderstanding of the market.On the other hand,This research has been for us this stock market buchibuqi is a chance.Mass away from the market,Caused the market stock price is lower than its intrinsic value,To our great investment opportunities." Winters think,The us stock market valuations are attractive,Especially the relative in us treasuries extremely low rate of return.

　　投资股票对抗通胀 Invest in stocks against inflation

　　“人们手上纸币的购买力每天都在下降，我认为通胀是非常现实的问题，如果你不尽快升值你的财富，最终财富会被通胀吞噬。” 温特斯认为，在一个相对较长的时期内，投资于美国一篮子蓝筹股获得的分红收益将会是美国国债收益的两倍，并且股票资产的价格增长可以跑赢通胀。

"People on the purchasing power of the notes every day in the fall,I think inflation is a very practical problem,If you don't rise as soon as possible your wealth,Final wealth will be up inflation." Winters think,In a relatively long period of time,Investment in the United States a basket of blue chip get bonus income will be the United States bond yields two times,And the stock assets price growth can run win inflation.

　　活跃投资者的数量减少 The number of active investors to reduce

　　“基本上，做股票投资的人有所减少，因为人们不喜欢股市波动的现实，但是如果你去认识股市的本质，读一下本杰明·格雷厄姆1949年写的《聪明的投资者》一书，你会知道市场先生就是波动的，你要利用他的波动。” 温特斯认为有两个关键点：首先，如果你不具备自己独特的优势（比如信息优势、技术优势），在一个越来越盲目追逐短期收益的氛围中，你应该将重点放在长期的投资机会上。其次，他认为投资者应该将波动看做是机会，而不是风险，投资者必须要关注自身能够控制的因素，也就是严谨执行投资策略，避免在机会面前被噪音吓退。

"basically,Do stock investment person has decreased,Because people don't like the reality of the stock market fluctuation,But if you get to know the nature of the stock market,Read Benjamin graham written in 1949[Wise investors]book,You will know that Mr Market is fluctuating,Do you want to use his fluctuation." Winters think there are two key points:First of all,If you do not have their own unique advantages(Such as information advantage/Technical advantage),In a more and more blind pursue short-term gains in the atmosphere,You should focus on long-term investment opportunities.secondly,He thinks that investors should be fluctuation as opportunities,Rather than risk,Investors have to focus on their own can control factors,Also is rigorous execution investment strategy,Avoid the opportunity before noise scare.

　　处理宏观不确定性 Processing macroscopic uncertainty

　　“面对宏观不确定性，你需要明白哪些是重要的可控的因素，当然作为个人，大部分因素我们都无法控制，但我们可以控制自己如何反应，这是投资者应该采取的正确方法。” 温特斯认为，那些在个股分析中忽略宏观因素的投资者更富有成效。专注于公司的经营状况，而不是预测未来的宏观经济前景，因为很少有人能在任意时段准确地预测未来经济状况。

"In the face of the macroscopic uncertainty,You need to understand that what is important controllable factors,Of course as a personal,Most of the factors we can't control,But we can control how to react,This is investors should take the right approach." Winters think,Those in the stocks analysis ignore macro factors investors more productive.Focus on the company's operating status,Not predict the future macro economic outlook,Because very few people can at any time accurately predict the future economic situation.

　　如果投资者认真地研究公司基本面，那么你可能会提前发现宏观经济深层发生的异常状况。

If investors seriously research company fundamentals,Then you may be to find out macroeconomic deep happen abnormal condition.

　　中国的机会 China's opportunity to

　　“美国许多人担心中国的经济状况，但它们很多人从来没有去过那里。我2012年有一个月的时间在中国，我不能告诉你，中国到底发生了什么事情，但我知道，你在那里遇到很多人，他们希望未来更好，并在不断努力。”在温特斯的投资组合中，已经增加与中国相关的股票仓位，比如香港怡和集团、斯沃琪、雀巢。

"Many American people worry that China's economic situation,But they are a lot of people have never been there.I in 2012 a month time in China,I can't tell you,China what happened,But I know,Where you meet a lot of people,They hope to the future better,And in the continuous efforts."In the winters in a portfolio,China has increased and the related stock positions,Such as Hong Kong jardine matheson/swatch/nestle.

　　烟草类公司 Tobacco firms

　　在基金的前十大持股中有四家是烟草公司，温特斯说：“我们不提倡吸烟，但烟草公司是巨大的现金流制造机器，特别是国际烟草公司。”

In the fund's holdings of the top 10 in four is the tobacco companies,Winters said:"We do not advocate smoking,But tobacco company is huge cash flow manufacturing machine,Especially the international tobacco companies."

　　苹果公司 apple

　　“苹果公司是一个伟大的公司，苹果的问题或者说大部分科技公司的问题是，它们的产品周期短，谁也不能告诉我其下一个产品是否仍会被广泛接受和追捧，如果我不知道，那我不会买入该公司的股票。” 温特斯不认为该公司的“护城河”足够强大的说法，在经历了短期业绩的爆发性增长后，如果该公司未来的创新不能超越iPhone，不能继续这种增长，那么其股价将面临压力。

"Apple is a great company,Apple's problems or most of the science and technology company's problem is,Their product cycle short,No one can tell me under which a product is still widely accepted and chase after hold in both hands,If I don't know,That I won't buy the company's stock." Winters don't think the company's"moat"Strong enough said,After short-term performance of the explosive growth,If the company future innovation cannot surpass the iPhone,Can't continue to this growth,So the price of the stock will face pressure.

　　投资股票优于投资债券 Invest in stocks is superior to invest in bonds

　　2012-11-3 文章来源于《证券市场周刊》证券市场周刊订阅

The 2012-11-3 articles from[Securities market weekly]Securities market weekly subscriptions

　　由于在金融危机的影响下股市持续下跌，大众认为股市将不会再次出现大幅上涨的机会，这是人们对市场的误解。

Because the financial crisis under the influence of the stock market continued to drop,The public think the stock market will not appear again sharply rising opportunity,This is the people to the misunderstanding of the market.

　

　唐纳德·亚克曼 Donald kerouac mann

　　简化投资 Simplified investment

　　唐纳德·亚克曼最近在美国得克萨斯州路德大学做了一个演讲，下面是他这次谈话的一些内容。

Donald kerouac mann recently in Texas Lutheran university made a speech,Below are some of the contents of the talks.

　　

最近持股 Recently holding

　　截至2012年6月30日，亚克曼基金的十大持股为新闻集团（News Corp）、百事公司（PEP）、西斯科（SYY）、微软（MSFT）、思科（CSCO）、CR巴德（BCR）、维亚康姆（VIAB）、可口可乐（KO）和强生公司（JNJ）。

By June 30, 2012,Kerouac mann fund ten big shareholding for news group(News Corp)/PepsiCo(PEP)/Francisco(SYY)/Microsoft(MSFT)/cisco(CSCO)/CR budd(BCR)/viacom(VIAB)/Coca-Cola(ko)And Johnson &johnson(JNJ).

　　亚克曼讲述了他为什么持有这些股票，他说：“我在投资行业工作超过40年，我认为现在这段时间是独一无二的，因为我发现历史上没有其他时期能诞生这么多伟大优秀的企业，这些企业都是盈利能力强大、规模巨大的国际性企业，同时它们的股票处于非常便宜的价位，当然这不是绝对的，2008年至2009年时股价是绝对便宜的。但相对而言，对我来说它们是非常非常便宜的。”

Kerouac mann tells the story of why he hold the stock,He said:"I in the investment industry more than 40 years,I think now the time is unique,Because I found that no other period in history to birth so many great excellent enterprise,These enterprises are strong profitability/Big international enterprise,At the same time their stock at a very cheap price,Of course this is not absolute,2008 to 2009 share price is absolutely cheap.But relatively,To me they are very, very cheap."

　　“在过去14年中，比重占资产规模超过10%的投资有14个，我们在这14个投资中都没有损失，而是很好的收益，因为我在选股中非常小心。没有什么能够替代知识的重要作用，学习并理解你所买入的公司非常重要。”

"In the past 14 years,The proportion of assets accounted for more than 10% of the scale of investment has 14,We in the 14 investment is no loss,But a good income,Because I am in stock selection of very careful.Nothing can replace the important role of knowledge,Study and understand what you buy company is very important."

　　简化投资 Simplified investment

　　“投资本质上是做正确的事情并有一些耐心。我认为我和大多数人之间的差异是我有一个更长远的眼界，评判事物以更长的时间为基准，而大多数人只是没有耐心。”

"Investment in essence is to do the right thing and have some patience.I think I and most people's the difference between a I have a more long-term vision,Judge things in a more long time for reference,And most people just don't have the patience."

　　“投资并不需要过于复杂的技术。在购买股票时，你需要关注的关键变量是购买时的价格，它将决定你未来的回报率。波动是价值投资者的朋友，波动不会困扰我，事实上，我很喜欢它。我是少有的喜欢市场向下走的人，即使是那些我已经买入的股票，因为我可以借助市场下跌的机会买入更多。大多数人没有做到这一点的心态。”

"Investment does not need too complex technology.When buying stocks,You need to pay attention to the key variables are purchase price,It will decide your future returns.Volatility is value investors friend,Wave doesn't worry me,In fact,I like it very much.I am one of the few like market down walk of person,Even those who I have to buy shares,Because I can drop by the market chance to buy more.Most people don't do this state of mind."

　　“买入一家公司的股票，你要为它支付价格。如果我买入某家公司的股票，那意味着我认为该公司的价格处于最坏的时候。由于坚守纪律性，我能以较低的价格买入股票，此举会使得胜利的天平向自己的方向移动。”

"Buy a company's stock,You have to pay the price for it.If I buy a company stock,That means that I think the company's prices at worst.Because stick to discipline,I can to lower prices to buy the shares,The move will make the balance of victory to their direction."

　　“没有人能够百分之百准确地预测未来，当你考虑公司未来收入和利润的增长率，以及类似的事情时，预期应该是一个数据范围。预期结果的波动范围取决于公司所处的不同行业和公司业务模式的周期波动性，但是最终，我需要努力试图分析出风险调整后的远期回报率。”

"No one can one hundred percent accurately predict the future,When you consider the future revenue and profit growth,And similar things,Expectations should be a data range.Expected results of wave range depends on the company's different industry and company business model cycle fluctuation,But in the end,I need to work hard to try to analysis the risk adjusted long-term rate of return."

　　“我发现盈利有着向优秀企业集中的趋势，就是优秀企业往往赚取越来越多的利润，并且具有较高回报率的优秀企业往往具有较低比例的固定资产，并且经济敏感性更低。比如百事公司，我们拥有大量的百事可乐公司的股票，占投资组合的10%，因为该公司未来收入很清晰，而且其股票价格非常便宜，我预期在当前的价格下，我会在百事可乐的股票上获得10%以上的收益，并且不需要承担太多的风险。”

"I found that profit to have excellent enterprise centralized trend,Is the outstanding enterprise often earn more and more profit,And has the high rate of return of excellent enterprise often has lower proportion of fixed assets,And the economy more low sensitivity.Such as the company,We have a lot of Pepsi the stock of the company,Accounted for 10% of the investment portfolio,Because the company future income is very clear,And the stock price is very cheap,I expected in the current price,I will in the Pepsi stock won more than 10% of income,And don't need to take too much risk."

　　“很多便宜但是规模较小的公司增长得非常缓慢（内在价值积累增长缓慢），这样的公司有很多，我觉得可以将它们看做是走台阶的人，与此相对的是站在自动扶梯上的人，借助自动扶梯你可以在竞争中不断超越对手。这就是我所喜欢的公司类型。”

"A lot of cheap but smaller companies grow very slowly(Intrinsic value accumulation of slow growth),This company has a lot of,I think they can be as people walk steps,And the relative is standing in the people on the escalator,With the aid of escalator you can be in competition constantly transcend opponents.This is what I like the type of company."

　　股息和期权方案 Dividend and option schemes

　　“股息是公司现金流的产物，所以现金流是真正的关键变量。如果你将资金继续投入到公司业务中，并且公司在市场上具有竞争优势，那么收入的增加会使得未来的回报更大。增量投资的边际回报是很大的。但是通常情况下，如果公司拥有40％的市场份额，那么它的增长速度一般没有占20%份额的公司快。”

"Dividend is the company's cash flow of the product,So the cash flow is the real key variables.If you put money to continue into the business,And the company on the market competitive advantage,So the increase of income will make the future better return.Incremental investment marginal return is a big.But normally,If the company has 40% of the market share,Then its growth rate is not 20% share of the company fast."

　　“我会投票反对所投资公司的任何一个期权激励方案，因为这对于股东来说是有害的，这使得公司领导层政治化，并且会损害正常的经济行为，这种行为不应该被纵容。”

"I'll vote against the investment company of any one option incentive schemes,For this it is harmful for shareholders,This enables the company leadership politicization,And can damage the normal economic activity,This kind of behavior should not be indulgence."