每日经济新闻(博客,微博)记者 金微 李玉敏 印峥嵘 董华 发自北京 上海 深圳

Daily economic news(blog,Micro bo)Reporter LiYuMin modification of the printed extraordinary DongHua Beijing Shanghai shenzhen

　　北京时间11月7日，民主党候选人奥巴马在大选中击败共和党挑战者罗姆尼，成为美国历史上首位连任总统的非裔美国人。尽管获胜的一刻对于奥巴马而言是喜悦的，但接下来他面对的挑战只会比过去更大。即将到来的财政悬崖以及竞选中奥巴马提到的政策，都是不可回避的现实。

Beijing time on November 7,Democratic candidate barack Obama in the general election defeat republican challenger romney,Become the nation's first run for a second term as President of African americans.Despite winning moment for Obama is in delight,But then his challenge will only more than in the past.The upcoming financial cliff and campaign barack Obama mentioned policy,All is not get away from the fact.

　　11月7日（美国当地时间6日晚），现任总统、民主党候选人奥巴马在大选中击败共和党挑战者罗姆尼，成功连任美国总统。

On November 7,(The United States local time 6 days late),Incumbent President/Democratic candidate barack Obama in the general election defeat republican challenger romney,Re-elected President of the United States.

　　选举结果揭晓，黄金大涨，美元重挫。作为世界重要经济体，中国亦无法置身事外。

The election results were announced,Gold of,Dollars down sharply.As the world's important economies,China has also can't stay.

　

　政策稳定性获延续 Policy stability was continue

　　在此前的竞选中，作为候选人的奥巴马曾指责中国操纵贸易。随着大选的尘埃落定，奥巴马的态度或进一步决定美国对华经济政策走势。

In the previous campaign,As a candidate Obama has accused China of control trade.As the election dust settled,Obama's attitude or further decided to the United States to China economic policy trend.

　　社科院世政经研究所研究员宋泓接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时说，由于奥巴马对中美经贸、中美关系有一定时间的积累，对华关系的认识也深刻，“奥巴马连任对华经济政策的稳定性会得到延续。”

The academy of political and economic research institute researcher SongHong accept[Daily economic news]reporters,Because Obama for china-us economic and trade/Relations between China and the United States have the accumulation of time,The understanding to the relation between China and deep,"Obama to China after the stability of the economic policy will be continued."

　　此前，奥巴马政府已连续对中国发起多起 “贸易战”：对中国轮胎征税、对中国太阳能板与太阳能电池征收高额关税，而奥巴马在选举时也提到，“加大对华惩罚性贸易措施。”

after,Obama government has continuous to China has launched several "Trade war":Tax on China's tire/On China's solar panels and solar cell collection of high tariffs,Obama also noted in the election,"Increase China punitive trade measures."

　　最近，中兴、华为在美遭调查、三一集团子公司风电项目被奥巴马否决，中国企业无论是想投资美国本土还是将自己的产品卖到美国都遭遇了阻力。

recently,zte/Huawei was in the survey/Trinity group subsidiary wind power project was Obama veto,China enterprise whether want to invest in the United States or their products sold to the United States have encountered resistance.

　　目前，美国经济复苏乏力，失业率也一直居高不下，奥巴马在为自己竞选总统作“最终陈述”时提到，如果赢得选举，他将加大教育投入以增强美国的竞争力，改革税收制度以促进经济公平，将原先用于战争的钱用于国内建设和削减赤字、保护穷人、老人和残疾人享有的福利，这与罗姆尼的主张有所不同。

At present,The United States economic recovery lack of power,The unemployment rate has been high,Obama is in their campaign for the President"Final version of a statement"that,If you win the election,He will increase the education investment in order to enhance the competitiveness of the United States,Reform of the tax system in order to promote economic fairness,Will originally used as a war money to be used for domestic construction and cut the deficit/Protection of the poor/The old man and the welfare of disabled persons enjoy,This and Mr Romney's claim is different.

　　“在宏观经济方面，无论是奥巴马还是罗姆尼上台，能够采取的政策都大同小异。”中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所副研究员张明在接受《每日经济新闻》记者采访时说，美国的宏观经济走势与宏观政策动向都蕴涵了新的外部冲击，未来几年中国政府将不得不持续应对美国宏观政策外部性的挑战。

"In macro economic aspects,Whether Obama or romney onstage,Can take policy are very much the same."The Chinese academy of social sciences institute of world economics and politics at associate researcher zhang Ming in accepting[Daily economic news]reporters,America's macroeconomic trends and macro policy trend all contain the new external shocks,The next few years the Chinese government will have to keep the United States to deal with the challenge of macro policy externalities.

　

　关注财政悬崖影响 Focus on financial cliff influence

　　经济政策一直是本次美国总统竞选议题的重中之重，这也正应对着美国当前的经济不景气形势。

Economic policy has been the President of the United States is the most important campaign issue,This is also deal with the United States the current economic recession situation.

　　张明说，从短期来看，美国经济面临两大威胁，一是今年年底、明年年初所谓“财政悬崖”的冲击，二是失业率依然高居不下。“无论谁上台，估计首先仍会实施较为宽松的财政政策，即通过延长减税政策的期限来缓解此类政策集体到期造成的被动财政紧缩，弱化"财政悬崖"的冲击。”

Zhang Ming said,In the short term,The U.S. economy faces two big threat,One is the end of this year/At the beginning of next year the"Financial cliff"impact,The second is the unemployment rate is still not high."No matter who on the stage,Estimate first will implement relatively loose fiscal policy,By extending the tax cuts that the time limit to ease such policy collective due cause passive austerity,weakening"Financial cliff"impact."

　　所谓“财政悬崖”，即指财政状况走到了尽头，即税收增加的同时财政支出又大幅削减。银河证券首席经济分析师左晓蕾在接受 《每日经济新闻》记者采访时说，若美国财政悬崖这一问题明年1月没有解决，美国的财政支出将减少8%~9%，2013年美国经济将走向衰退，全球外需萎缩。美国是中国重要的贸易伙伴，中国对美出口刚刚出现好转，这对中国贸易带来巨大打击。

The so-called"Financial cliff",That is, financial situation came to an end,Namely tax increase at the same time the fiscal expenditure and slash.Galaxy securities chief economic analysts ZuoXiaoLei in accepting [Daily economic news]reporters,If the United States financial cliff this problem January no problem,America's fiscal expenditure will be decreased by 8% ~ 9%,In 2013 the United States economy will be headed for a recession,Now the global atrophy.The United States is China's important trade partner,China's exports to America have just appeared better,The China trade in two-half.

　　无论美国能否解决财政悬崖问题，都会对中国带来影响。张明说，美国政府如果实施扩张性财政政策，会导致美国政府债务占GDP比率继续攀升，这意味着未来美国政府通过制造通胀、美元贬值等方式撇清债务的激烈增加，而中国是美国的最大海外债权人。

Whether the United States can solve the problem of financial cliff,China will impact.Zhang Ming said,The United States government if the expansionary fiscal policy,Can lead to the U.S. government debt to GDP rate continues to rise,This means that in the future the United States government through the manufacturing inflation/The dollar means such as debt left clear fierce increase,China is the biggest overseas creditors.

　　中国建设银行(601939,股吧)高级研究员赵庆明对《每日经济新闻》记者表示，过去奥巴马政府提出 “出口倍增和再工业化”的经济复苏政策一直没有什么动作，新的任期内奥巴马的工作重心会转向经济，“实现出口倍增，就要实行软的汇率政策，即本币贬值压外币升值，而我们对美贸易顺差持续扩大，人民币问题一定会成借口和依据。”

China construction bank(601939,guba)Senior researcher to ZhaoQingMing[Daily economic news]reporters,The past Obama government proposed "Export multiplication and again industrialization"Economic recovery policy has been no action,The new presidency barack Obama work center of gravity will turn to the economy,"Achieve export multiplication,Will the soft exchange rate policy,Namely local currency devaluation pressure foreign currency appreciation,And we continue to expand trade surplus with the us,The Chinese yuan will into excuses and basis."

　

　/QDII基金/ / QDII fund /

　　QDII基金：能源地产行业存机会

QDII fund:Real estate industry energy save opportunities

　　每日经济新闻记者 董华 发自深圳

Daily economic news reporter DongHua from shenzhen

　　昨日，现任美国总统奥巴马以超过半数选票的优势，击败共和党候选人罗姆尼，从而成功连任美国总统。交银资源基金经理饶超表示，短期来看，这意味着美国现有的宽松货币政策将继续，一定程度上有利于稳定市场的情绪和资金流向。但奥巴马的连任并没有给美国政局带来实质性的变化，两党在处理接踵而至的财政悬崖问题上的分歧仍有可能给接下来的市场带来波动。

yesterday,President Obama to more than half the votes advantage,Defeat republican candidate Mr Romney,Thus re-elected President of the United States.Silver resources into the fund manager RaoChao said,Short term,This means that the current loose monetary policy will continue,A certain extent, is conducive to stabilize the market mood and capital flow.But Mr Obama's re-election and not to the American political bring substantial changes,The two parties in the treatment of the ensuing financial cliff problems are still differences may give the next market with fluctuation.

　　那么，具体到QDII基金，尤其是针对美国市场和新兴市场的QDII基金，奥巴马若再次执政，到底会对此产生什么样的影响呢？QDII基金未来又面临着哪些机遇？

so,Specific to QDII fund,Especially for the American market and emerging market QDII fund,Obama if again ruling,What this will produce what kind of impact?QDII fund and face the future what opportunities?

　　对于未来QDII基金存在的投资机遇，基金经理认为，短期内，黄金类的资产有机会，中期美国逐步走向“能源独立”，相关产业会受益。房地产板块的见底回升也会带来一些投资机会。

For future QDII fund existing investment opportunities,Fund managers think,In the short term,Gold class assets have a chance,The United States gradually moving towards the middle"Energy independence",Related industry will benefit.Real estate plate see bottom rebound will also bring some investment opportunities.

　　受奥巴马连任影响，黄金收益明显，上周金价的大阴线今日收复，短期内一些主投黄金类的QDII将有机会。从中期来看，分析师预计，金价的上升趋势将得到维持。黄金价格有可能突破1800美元，涨势会持续一个季度以上。

By Obama reappointment influence,Gold income obvious,Last week, the price of gold big Yin line today recover,In the short term some pitch gold class QDII will have the opportunity.In the medium term,Analysts expect,Gold is now rising trend will get to maintain.Gold prices might exceed $1800,Gains would continue for more than a quarter.

　　美国两位总统候选人此前都倡导“能源独立”，如果成形，意味着能源的进口减少，贸易赤字压力会得到缓解；美国本土能源价格的成本优势有利于提高国内产业的相对竞争力，并在一定程度上提振消费。

The United States had two presidential candidates are advocated"Energy independence",If forming,Mean energy decrease imports,The trade deficit will ease the pressure;The United States energy price cost advantage to improve the relative competitive domestic industry,And to a certain extent, boost consumption.

　　“中期来看，随着美国能源独立的影响，未来美国对进口能源的依赖度减小，本土油气产量稳步上升，页岩气和页岩油等非常规能源的开发前景依然不错，而得益于较低天然气价格，相关下游领域也会受益，所以主投美国资源类的QDII未来也有一定机会。”饶超表示。

"The medium term,As the us energy independent influence,The future of the United States imported energy reduce dependence,Domestic oil and gas production steadily rising,Shale gas and shale oil unconventional energy prospect of development is still good,And thanks to lower gas prices,Related downstream areas will also benefit,So the Lord cast the resource type of QDII future also have certain opportunity."RaoChao said.

　　“美国房地产见底回升、地产恢复也将带来一些机会。事实上，今年美国地产相关板块上涨非常多。”这也意味着投向美国房地产的QDII仍有机会。

"The United States real estate see bottom rebound/The real estate recovery will also bring some chances.In fact,The United States this year real estate related plate rise very much."It also means to the United States real estate QDII still have a chance.

　　从中长期来看，饶超认为，奥巴马连任对美国经济影响不大，因为在美国，目前政府对经济的主导作用不大，领导人的连任不会改变经济中长期的运行轨迹。

From the long term,RaoChao think,Obama re-election for American economic impact is not big,Because in the United States,The government to the economic leading role is not big,Leaders of the reappointment does not change the long-term economic operation of the trajectory.

　　另外，由于QE3和中国经济企稳，热钱都涌进了香港市场，港股反弹显著，香港恒生指数已经突破了22000点。

In addition,Because QE3 and China's economy stabilises,Hot money flows into the Hong Kong market,Stocks rebound significantly,Hong Kong's hang seng index has exceeded 22000 point.

　　“目前香港股票由于资金推动估值上行的行情已经演绎得差不多了，接下来还是要回归到基本面，关注盈利是否兑现，如果盈利未达预期，那么还会出现一波回调。接下来如果美股因为财政悬崖问题继续回调，港股也会面临一定的回调压力，港股市场目前的重心应该放在个股的基本面上。”饶超表示。

"At present Hong Kong stock due to capital promote valuation ascending market has been deduced to get about,The next still want to return to the fundamentals,Attention to profit is cash,If profits "not exceeding the expectation,So also will appear a wave of callback.The next if us stocks because financial cliff problems continue to callback,Hong Kong stocks will face a certain callback pressure,Hong Kong stocks market the current priority should be given to the basic surface stocks."RaoChao said.

　　

/外汇/ / foreign exchange /

　　市场风险偏好高涨人民币兑美元再触上限

Market risk preference high against the dollar to touch the ceiling

　　每日经济新闻记者 印峥嵘 金微 李玉敏发自上海、北京

Daily economic news reporter seal modification of the extraordinary LiYuMin from Shanghai/Beijing

　　美国大选尘埃落定，民主党候选人奥巴马获连任，令市场风险偏好情绪上升。美元指数在竞选结果出炉后应声大跌，国内人民币兑美元即期盘中连续第七个交易日触及交易区间上限，且尾盘紧贴交易区间上限作收。

The U.S. presidential election dust settled,Democratic candidate barack Obama won re-election,Make market risk preference emotions rise.The dollar index in the election results after a crash answer,Domestic against the dollar spot pan seventh consecutive trading day trading range touch the ceiling,And tail disc close to trading interval on the deadline.

　　美元走势强弱未定

Dollars trend strength pending

　　昨日奥巴马获胜的消息刚公布，美元指数就迅速出现了跳水，由80.70迅速下跌到80.30，下跌幅度达到0.50%，不过后来反弹至80.60。

Yesterday Mr Obama win just released the news,The dollar index quickly appeared diving,Rapid fall from 80.70 to 80.30,Fell by 0.50%,But later rebound to 80.60.

　　经济学家刘军洛认为，美国历史上最严厉的金融监管将在奥巴马的第二任期全面铺开，美元指数会猛烈上升，奥巴马连任，美元指数上升时间会推后到12月的后半月。

Economists LiuJunLuo think,The history of the United States the most severe financial supervision will be in Obama's second term spread to open completely,The dollar index will be fierce rise,Obama re-election,The dollar index rise time will be moved back to December of the second half.

　　不少经济学家认为，美元会维持弱势。复旦大学经济学院副院长孙立坚分析指出，在“财政悬崖”面前，为解决中低收入就业和社会保障问题，美国需要中长期货币政策支持，美元贬值有利于美国的再工业化。“在QE3之后，我们或将迎来QE4的出台。弱势美元时代即将到来，人民币升值已成预期。”

Many economists think,The dollar will maintain the weak.Fudan university school of economics, vice President of the SunLiJian analysis,in"Financial cliff"before,In order to solve low income in employment and social security,The United States needs to long-term monetary policy support,The dollar is good for us to industrialization."In QE3 after,We will have QE4 come on stage.A weak dollar era is coming,The appreciation of the renminbi has already become the expected."

　　宋泓认为，现在还不能判断美元究竟会走强或是走弱，美国经济有很大的变数，“美元实行量化宽松后，现在是弱势美元，但美元未来是维持弱势还是走强，这要看世界其他经济体的走向。”

SongHong think,Can't judge now dollars will ultimately stronger or weaker,The American economy has a lot of variables,"The dollar after quantitative easing,Now is the weak American dollar,But the dollar in the future is to maintain the weak or going strong,This should see the trend of the rest of the world economy."

　　人民币升值情绪波动

The appreciation of the renminbi mood swings

　　人民币兑美元中间价昨天连续第二个交易日上涨，报6.3067，令市场颇为意外。此前几个交易日中间价走跌，被市场解读为央行有意调低中间价控制人民币升幅。

The us dollar middle rate for the second consecutive trading day up yesterday,Newspaper 6.3067,Make market rather accident.After several trading day the middle price continue,Is the market interpreted as a central bank intends to turn down the middle price control RMB increase.

　　兴业银行(601166,股吧)一位外汇交易员表示，“美国大选对人民币并无直接影响，但奥巴马获连任，风险偏好情绪上升令美元下跌，会助涨人民币升值的情绪。”

Societe generale(601166,guba)A foreign exchange dealer said,"The U.S. presidential election to RMB and no direct influence,But Obama won re-election,Risk preference emotions rise to the decline of the dollar,Will help up the appreciation of the renminbi emotions."

　　海外市场方面，香港离岸人民币即期（CNH）汇价昨天继续走升，且持续高于在岸人民币 （CNY）即期现汇价格，差距达到七个月来最高，反映市场持续看升人民币。

Overseas markets,Hong Kong offshore RMB sight(CNH)Exchange rate yesterday continue to go up,And continued to be higher than the RMB (CNY)Sight spot price,Gap to seven months to the highest,Reflect the markets continue to see the flag-raising RMB.

　　12个月期人民币兑美元无本金交割远期汇率比上海市场即期汇率低1.6%，10月23日该贴水曾经达到2%，为2009年以来最大，表明投资者预测在本周的美国大选之后人民币升值势头将会逆转。

12 months period against the dollar no principal delivery the forward rate more than 1.6% lower at the spot exchange rate of the Shanghai market,On October 23rd this discount once reached 2%,For 2009 years the largest,Prediction shows that investors in this week's U.S. presidential election after the appreciation of the renminbi momentum will reverse.

　　奥巴马连任，令他此前的执政思路得以延续，美联储量化宽松（QE）政策将继续推行，在竞选过程中，奥巴马反复强调他在任期间成功推动了人民币升值。

Obama re-election,To his previous ruling ideas to continue,The fed quantitative easing(QE)Policy will continue to implement,During the campaign,Obama reiterated his success during the term of promote the appreciation of the RMB.

　　中国央行国际司司长何建雄本周在墨西哥城接受采访时表示，中国在汇率政策方面有自主决策能力，人民币兑美元最近几周升值是受到市场需求推动。

China's central bank international company priests HeJianXiong this week in Mexico City an interview said,China's exchange rate policy have independent decision-making ability,RMB appreciation against the dollar in recent weeks by market demand.

　　何建雄表示，根本而言是市场在决定人民币汇率，而且目前接近均衡水平。他说，美国大选不会对人民币水平造成大的影响，中国完全有能力制定自己的政策。

HeJianXiong said,It is fundamental to the market in RMB exchange rate,And there is close to equilibrium level.He said,The U.S. presidential election will not big impact to the level of the yuan,China is fully capable of setting their own policy.

　

　/大宗商品/ / commodity /

　　奥巴马胜选推高金价大选行情能持续多久？

Obama MaShengXuan push high gold election market can last long?

　　每日经济新闻记者 李玉敏 发自北京

Daily economic news reporter LiYuMin from Beijing

　　经过激烈的交锋，昨日（11月7日）美国总统大选结果尘埃落定。奥巴马胜出的消息一公布，美元指数随即走弱，而原油、黄金等商品价格则早在北京时间6日晚投票期间预期奥巴马胜算更大时出现飙涨。

After the fierce exchange,yesterday(On November 7,)The United States presidential election results the dust settled.Obama won a news announced,A weaker dollar index immediately,And crude oil/Gold and commodity prices, as early as in Beijing time 6 late during the vote expected Obama greater odds there was a surging.

　　分析师认为，投资者的普遍预期是奥巴马连任将会延续宽松的货币政策，美元因此受到打压，黄金价格持续走高，预计这样的大选行情还将持续一段时间。

Analysts believe,Investors are generally expected Obama re-election will last the loose monetary policy,Dollars so that by,Gold prices continue to go up,This election is expected to market will continue for a period of time.

　　由于预期奥巴马赢得美国总统大选的可能性较大，北京时间11月6日夜间，纽约黄金12月合约上涨37.6美元至1715.0美元/盎司，涨幅2.24%。11月7日续涨，涨幅一度接近1%，达到1731.6美元/盎司，至截稿时涨幅缩小至0.36%。全球最大的黄金上市交易基金（ETF）SPDRGoldTrust的黄金持仓量增加2吨至1334吨。

Due to the expected barack Obama won the election of the President of the United States more likely,Beijing time on November 6, at night,New York gold December contract rose $37.6 to $1715.0 per ounce,Or 2.24%.Continue rises on November 7,,Or was close to 1%,Reached $1731.6 / ounce,To press when reduced to 0.36% increase.The world's largest gold listing for trading fund(ETF)SPDRGoldTrust gold position increased 2 tons to 1334 tons.

　　北京时间11月6日晚，美原油连大幅上涨3.06美元，收于88.71美元，上涨3.6%。11月7日，美原油连却呈跌势，盘中受奥巴马获胜消息刺激，一度回升到88.71美元，不过截至北京时间晚8点，再度下跌至87.81左右，跌幅1%左右。

Beijing time on November 6th night,Beauty crude oil even greatly rose $3.06,To close at $88.71,Rose 3.6%.On November 7,,Beauty is but crude oil even fall,Plate by Obama win news stimulation,Once back to $88.71,But by Beijing time is 8 PM,Again fall to 87.81 or so,Fall about 1%.

　　海通期货总经理徐凌对《每日经济新闻》记者表示，“我认为这是一个大选行情，短期会持续，情况明朗以后就会回归。黄金价格的上涨是对美国宽松政策的一个反应，实质上支撑实体经济的很多因素并没有从根本上改变。”

Haitong futures to general manager XuLing[Daily economic news]reporters,"I think this is a general election market,Short-term will continue to,After the clear situation will return.The price of gold going up to the United States is loose policy a reaction,To support the real economy in the many factors did not fundamentally change."

　　北京师范大学经济学院教授贺力平却表示，汇率和商品价格的变动不一定就和大选有直接关系。很多人认为奥巴马的获胜意味着美国宽松政策的持续，但QE政策的延续是美联储早已经定下来的。贺力平表示：“在美国这样的体制下，美联储定下来的货币政策和谁当总统的关系不大。”

Beijing normal university school of economics professor HeLiPing but said,Exchange rate and the change of commodity prices will not necessarily and elections have direct relation.Many people think that Mr Obama's victory means the United States loose policy of continuous,But the continuation of QE policy is the fed had come down surely.HeLiPing said:"In the United States this system,The fed decided monetary policy and who when the President's concern is not big."