⊙记者 李丹丹 ○编辑 孙忠

⊙ reporter li dandan ○ SunZhong editor

　　在上月短暂、大幅地反弹之后，货币供应量增速在10月末有所下滑。然而，广义货币M2增速仍然略高于14%，基本符合年初制定的目标。分析人士表示，央行下一阶段重在保持货币环境稳定，预计正逆回购会成为央行频繁使用的工具，短期内下调存款准备金率的概率不大。

Last month in a short/Significantly after the rebound,Money supply growth slipped at the end of October.however,The M2 growth is still slightly higher than 14%,With the goal of early basic formulated.Analysts said,The central bank the next stage is to keep the currency stable environment,Expected is reverse repurchase will become the central bank frequently used tool,The short term deposit reserve rate cut the probability is not big.

　　12日，央行公布的数据显示，10月末，M2余额93.64万亿元，同比增长14.1%，比上月末低0.7个百分点，比上年同期高1.2个百分点；狭义货币M1余额29.33万亿元，同比增长6.1%，分别比上月末和上年同期低1.2个和2.3个百分点。

12,The central bank figures showed,At the end of October,M2 balance is 93.64 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 14.1%,A 0.7% lower than late last month,1.2% higher than the same period last year;Narrow currency M1 balance is 29.33 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 6.1%,Late last month, respectively, compared with the same period last year low 1.2 and 2.3%.

　　交行金研中心认为，10月货币供应增速下降主要是受贷款增速下降、一般性存款减少以及财政存款大幅增加等因素的影响。同时，由于股市依然低迷、企业经营活力尚未明显恢复，加之去年同期基数较高，M1同比增长仅6.1％。

In the gold research center think,October the money supply growth decline is mainly by loan growth decline/General deposit and reduced financial deposits increase the influence of the factors such as.At the same time,Due to the stock market downturn/Enterprise management activity has not markedly,Together with the same period last year high base,M1 year-on-year growth of only 6.1%.

　　但是值得指出的是，虽然货币供应量增速环比下滑，但是放在今年全年的范围内看，M2指标14.1%的增速仅次于9月底，处于年内次高，也基本符合年初央行制定的14%的目标，显示货币条件总体相对宽松。

But it is worth,Although the money supply growth link glide,But in the year within the scope of the watch,M2 index 14.1% growth after the end of September,In years next to the,Also conforms to the basic early the 14% target set by the central bank,Display the overall relatively loose monetary conditions.

　　此前公布的三季度货币政策执行报告中指出，下一阶段，央行重在保持货币环境的稳定，加强货币政策的预调微调。分析人士预计，央行会继续根据国际收支和流动性供需形势，综合使用正回购、逆回购等工具，灵活调控银行间市场的流动性。

Previously announced third quarter monetary policy implementation report,The next phase,The central bank is to keep the stability of the monetary environment,Strengthen the monetary policy adjustment preset.Analysts expect,The central bank will continue to according to the international balance of payments and liquidity supply and demand situation,Comprehensive use positive repurchase/Reverse repurchase of tools,Flexible control interbank market liquidity.

　　交行金研中心认为，鉴于近两月M2增速已在目标之上，且在外围流动性宽松格局下，未来资本可能加大流入力度、外汇占款可能有一定程度回升，加之11、12月财政存款大量下放的影响，年内降准的必要性下降。

In the gold research center think,In view of nearly two months M2 growth has set up a file in the target above,And in peripheral liquidity loose pattern,The future capital may be increasing inflow dynamics/Funding of foreign exchange may have a certain degree of rebound,Together with 11/December financial deposit a large number of the influence of the transfer to a lower level,The necessity of the year drop must decline.

　　但鉴于年初一般是信贷需求较为旺盛的时期，且彼时物价涨幅不大，交行预计在明年初准备金率可能适度下调1至2次，每次0.5个百分点，之后考虑到物价涨幅可能有所扩大，准备金率会保持基本稳定。

But early in general is credit demand more exuberant period,And at the price or not,In the early next year is expected to moderate cut reserve ratio May 1 to 2 times,Every time by 0.5%,After considering the price or may have somewhat expanded,Reserve ratio will keep basically stable.

　　JP摩根的观点则认为，短期内不太可能出台大规模的货币宽松政策。通胀周期将在年底前上扬，但总体CPI仍将低于3%，远低于政府4%的通胀目标。经济的增长势头在年底前预计将复苏，但同时通胀也将回升，因此2012年再次降息的可能性减小。其预计，央行将主要通过公开市场操作（尤其是逆回购）和降准管理流动性。当前预计年内利率保持不变，存准率将再次下调50个基点。

JP Morgan's view is that,In the short term is unlikely to come large monetary easing.Inflation cycle will rise before the end of the year,But overall CPI will still less than 3%,Far below the government's 4% inflation target.Economic growth is expected to recovery before the end of the year,But at the same time inflation will also picks up,So in 2012 the possibility of cut interest rates again reduce.Its expected,The central bank will mainly through the open market operation(Especially reverse repurchase)And drop quasi management liquidity.The current year is expected to reach interest rates unchanged,Save quasi rate will again by 50 basis points.