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我国外贸出口不能光看增速--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-09-12
日前公布的8月份进出口数据显示,虽然8月中国出口增速小幅反弹至2.7%,但是仍处低位。这样看来,全年外贸增速“保10”的目标压力增大。
Announced a few days ago in August import and export data display,Although August China's export growth rebound slightly to 2.7%,But still at low.so,Annual growth of foreign trade"The 10"The goal of increasing pressure.
当前中国出口不振,外围形势未见明显好转是决定性因素。毫无疑问,欧美市场目前的经济低迷是外需最大的压力,欧债危机的解决目前才刚刚露出眉目。欧洲央行的无限制购债计划虽被市场寄予厚望,但这并不代表欧债问题就能够顺利解决。因此期望欧洲市场的需求迅速复苏,是不切实际的。
The current China's export slump,Peripheral situation improved obviously did not see is the decisive factor.There is no doubt that,The European and American market the current economic downturn is now the biggest pressure,The debt crisis solution are just show features.The European central bank debt unlimited purchase plan is expected by the market,But this doesn't mean the debt problem can be solved successfully.So expect the European market demand rapid recovery,Is unrealistic.
此外,在美国失业率持续高位的状态下,美国市场的需求也将难有起色。而且,贸易的疲软令人民币贬值的压力有所增强。
In addition,The unemployment rate in the United States continued high condition,The U.S. market demand will also be difficult to recover.and,The weakness of the trade to RMB devaluation pressure increased.
因此,受外围因素的影响,中国外贸形势不容乐观。这一点,从反映外贸形势的窗口“圣诞季”好景不再已经折射出中国出口全面转冷的趋势。
therefore,By the influence of the peripheral factors,China's foreign trade situation is not optimistic.this,From the window of foreign trade situation reflect"The Christmas season"Prosperity is no longer have reflects China's export comprehensive turn cold trend.
而进口数据的表现显示,中国的内需依然走弱。应当看到,国内经济的持续调整,使得内需市场目前还没有走出紧缩的局面,从而导致进口需求难有好转。
And the performance of the import data display,China's domestic demand will remain weak.Should see,The domestic economy continue to adjust,Makes the domestic market is still not out of the tight situation,Leading to import demand is difficult to turn for the better.
外需持续疲软使得当前的进出口压力倍增。近日,关于提高出口退税率的呼声渐起,希望以此降低企业生产成本、提高出口竞争力,促进中国出口增长。不可否认,这个政策对于目前我国的外贸形势来说,有很大的刺激作用。而且,这样的上调压力随着国际形势的变化,会变得更加强烈。
Overseas market demand remains weak makes the current import and export pressure multiplier.recently,About raising the export tax rebate rate call stirrings,Hope is to reduce production costs/Improve the export competitiveness,Promoting China's export growth.undeniable,This policy for the present situation of China's foreign trade it,A lot of stimulation.and,This raised pressure along with the change of international situation,Will become more intense.
但是,笔者认为,在整体经济转型调整阶段,促进外贸出口增长的扶持政策显然难以彻底解决经济结构与发展之间的矛盾。不如鼓励其对外投资,“走出去”拓展海外市场。因此,当前的关键还是要从整体大局角度,进一步调整贸易结构,促进贸易的内外市场均衡发展,最终实现整个贸易的繁荣。
but,The author thinks that,In the overall economic transformation adjustment stage,To promote foreign trade export growth support policies obviously difficult to completely solve the economic structure and the contradiction between development.As to encourage its foreign investment,"Go out"Expand overseas markets.therefore,The current key or from the overall situation Angle,Further adjustment trade structure,Promote balanced development of internal and external trade market,Finally realize the prosperity of the whole trade.
综上而言,目前在全球经济低迷的情势下,外贸出口不能仅看增长,而是要促进结构与区域的均衡发展,这样才能解决好量与质的问题,同时也兼顾经济发展。 .
In conclusion in,At present in the global economic downturn conditions,Foreign trade export not only see growth,But to promote the balanced development of the structure and area,In order to solve the quality and quantity problem,At the same time also take account of economic development. .
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