本报记者 陈无诤 发自广州香港 Our reporter Chen no Zheng from guangzhou Hong Kong

　　对于酝酿许久的中国金融改革来说，在十八大后有望取得实质性的进展。

For brewing for a long time China for financial reform,In the eighteenth big is expected to made substantial progress.

　　十八大之后，中国新一届领导人在未来十年将把金融改革作为政府工作的重中之重因为金融改革对维持快速经济增长和刺激国内消费需求至关重要。在十八大开幕式上，胡锦涛强调金融改革将是政府未来的工作重点。

After eighteen big,China the new leaders in the next 10 years will be the financial reform as a top priority in the work of the government for financial reform to maintain rapid economic growth and stimulate domestic consumption demand is very important.In the eighteenth big the opening ceremony,Hu emphasized financial reform will be the focal point of work of the future.

　　在十八大期间的新闻发布会上，三大金融巨头罕见地同时亮相，点明中国金改的可能性路径。中国证监会主席郭树清表示，中国将向境外机构分配更多投资额度，供它们投资于中国的资本市场。郭树清暗示，中国政府希望加快国内金融体系的开放。

In the eighteenth big during the news conference,Three big financial giant rare appearance at the same time,Point out the possibility of China's gold change path.Chairman of the China securities GuoShuQing said,China will overseas institutions to allocate more investment quota,For they are investing in China's capital market.GuoShuQing suggest that,The Chinese government wants to speed up the opening of the domestic financial system.

　　对下一步改革重点，央行行长周小川说，“银行业将始终以服务实体经济为己任，不断开拓创新，提高金融服务效能，更好地适应经济社会发展对金融服务提出的新要求。”

The reform of the next key,Central bank governor zhou xiaochuan said,"Banking will always service entity economy as our duty,Develops the innovation unceasingly,Improve the financial service efficiency,Better adapt to economic and social development for the new request of financial services."

　　这在业内人士看来，中国将在更大程度上对境外投资者开放国内股市和债市，此举是中国向世界开放其金融体系的谨慎改革的一部分。

This in the personage inside course of study looks,China will in a large extent on foreign investors to open its domestic stock market and bond market,The move is China to the world open its financial system reform part of caution.

　　在年初的全国金融工作会议上，作为未来5年国内金融改革的指导性意见，市场希望这次会议有一些重大的制度改革出现，但实际这次全国金融工作会议除了强调金融要回归到实体经济及防范系统性风险和区域性风险之外，有新意的东西不算多。

In the beginning of the year of the national financial work conference,As the next five years domestic financial reform the opinions,Market hope this meeting have some significant system reform appear,But the actual the national financial work conference besides emphasize financial to return to the entity economy and guard against systemic risk and regional risk besides,New things isn't much.

　　不过，到3月份两会之后，不仅温州综合金融改革试点开始，而且深圳前海、珠海横琴、天津、上海、重庆、鄂尔多斯(600295,股吧)等各地的金融改革试点风起云涌。汇率、利率、人民币国际化、证券、保险等不同的改革措施也纷纷出台。

but,After two to three months,Wenzhou not only comprehensive financial reform pilot began,And shenzhen sea before/Zhuhai hengqin/tianjin/Shanghai/chongqing/ordos(600295,guba)And so on each place of financial reform pilot blustery.Exchange rate/Interest rates/RMB internationalization/securities/Insurance and so on the different reform measures are also introduced.

　　香港大学中国金融研究中心宋敏的观点更为实在，他告诉时代周报记者，中国金改应主要着眼四个部分：金融市场体系的准入（包括市场准入和机构准入）、利率水平的市场化、汇率的自由化以及人民币的国际化。

The university of Hong Kong China financial research center SongMin point of view more really,He told reporters times weekly,China's gold change should be the main focus on the four parts:Financial market access system(Including market access and institutions access)/The marketization of interest rate level/The exchange rate liberalization and the internationalization of RMB.

　　

扩大开放金融市场 Expand the opening of the financial market

　　宋敏所谓的金融市场体系的准入，在外媒十八大的报道中，被通俗地解读为中国将扩大开放金融市场。

SongMin so-called financial market access system,Out medium 18 big reports,Be popularly interpretation for China will expand the opening of the financial market.

　　郭树清表示，中国将向境外机构分配更多投资额度，供它们投资中国的资本市场。可以预期中国资本市场必将迎来一个持续稳健快速发展的新阶段，为广大投资者带来更稳定更丰厚的回报。

GuoShuQing said,China will overseas institutions to allocate more investment quota,For them to invest in China's capital markets.Can expect China's capital market will usher in a continuous steady fast to a new stage of development,For the vast number of investors bring more stable, more generous returns.

　　11月13日，在A股大跌30余点后，管理层晚间“火线救市”加速引入境外资金入市。经国务院批准，中国证监会、中国人民银行及国家外汇管理局决定增加2000亿元人民币合格境外机构投资者(RQFII)投资额度，至此试点总额度达到2700亿元人民币。

November 13,In the A shares plunged after more than 30 points,Management night"Burn save city"Accelerated introducing foreign capital entering the market.With the approval of the state council,The China securities regulatory commission/The people's bank of China and the state administration of foreign exchange decided to increase 200 billion yuan RMB qualified foreign institutional investors(RQFII)Investment quota,This pilot ZongEDu amounted to 270 billion yuan RMB.

　　此外，国家外汇管理局（下称“外管局”）11月13日披露的数据显示，10月外管局向合格境外机构投资者（QFII）和RQFII分别批出27.5亿美元和90亿元的投资额度。具体来看，10月外管局向9家合格境外机构投资者（QFII）批出共计27.5亿美元的投资额度。至此，外管局已累计批复159家QFII机构总计335.68亿美元的QFII额度。

In addition,The state administration of foreign exchange(said"safe")On November 13th disclosed data display,October to the safe qualified foreign institutional investors(QFII)And RQFII respectively a $2.75 billion and $9 billion investment.Specific to see,October safe to nine qualified foreign institutional investors(QFII)A total of $2.75 billion investment.So far,Safe has accumulated reply 159 QFII institutions a total of $33.568 billion of QFII line.

　　中国政府在企业债券市场上也取得了进展，该市场此前由于发行方面临繁琐的审批流程而长期停滞不前。监管者近来已放松了管制，加快了审批流程，并鼓励发行更多债券。

The Chinese government in enterprise bond markets have also made progress,After the market due to the issue in the aspects of trival approval process and long-term stagnation.Regulators have recently relaxed control,To speed up the approval process,And encourage issued more bonds.

　　作为人民币国际化的重要步骤之一，郭树清在十八大期间接受记者采访时还透露，证监会已和有关部门达成一致，在QFII现有的800亿美元用完之后，肯定还会继续增加QFII额度，同时证监会正在协调提高单个QFII现有10亿美元的上限，同时进一步降低QFII进入的门槛。

As one of the important steps of RMB internationalization,GuoShuQing in the eighteenth big period when accepting a reporter to interview also revealed,Securities regulatory commission and the relevant departments have reached an agreement,In the QFII existing $80 billion after use,Will also continue to increase amount of QFII,At the same time the CSRC is coordinated to improve single QFII existing upper limit of $1 billion,At the same time further reduce the threshold of the QFII into.

　　郭树清表示，单个机构的投资额度也将上调，其投资组合的上限将从10亿美元增加到至多50亿美元。郭树清还试图应对境外投资者对于中国金融体系的一些主要抱怨。他承诺，不久将宣布税收激励措施，同时，从中国向境外汇款的流程也将得到简化。

GuoShuQing said,A single institution investment will also increase,The upper limit of investment portfolio will rose to $1 billion from $5 billion at most.GuoShuQing are also trying to deal with foreign investors for China's financial system of some main complain.He promised,Will soon be announced tax incentive measures,At the same time,From China to overseas remittance process will also is simplified.

　　早在一年前的11月18日，国务院总理温家宝在印尼巴厘岛出席第十四次中国与东盟领导人会议并发表讲话，倡议推动金融市场开放，扩大本币互换规模。

As early as in a year ago on November 18,,The state council premier wen jiabao attended in Indonesia Bali 14th China and asean leaders and spoke at the meeting,Initiative to promote financial markets open,Expand local currency swap scale.

　　中国人民银行调查统计司课题组在此前发布的一篇报告中指出，资本管制可能在短期内结束资本流动但不能从根本上改变因经济失衡带来的资本流动。央行的这篇报告认为，资本管制效力不断下降，扩大开放可能是最终选择。

The people's bank of China survey statistics in previous research released a report,Capital controls may end in the short term capital flow but not fundamentally change because of the economic imbalances bring capital flows.The central bank's this report think,Capital controls effectiveness declining,Opening up may is the final choice.

　　“扩大开放是有前提的，也就是说在对外开放的同时也必须对内开放。”财经评论员叶檀表示，如果对外开放后第一步是在资本项目下允许境外的人民币流入境内进行投资，当境内的资本产品价格扭曲的时候，就会造成一系列的混乱。

"Opening up is the premise,That is in foreign open at the same time must also be internally open."Financial commentators leaf wingceltis said,If after opening the first step is in capital project is to allow the renminbi overseas investment inflows,When domestic capital the product price when distortion,It will cause a series of chaos.

　　“民资进入金融领域和国有资本同等标准。”尚福林说，目前，银监会正在进一步梳理民间资本进入银行业的相关规定，下一步将出台有关实施细则，适当时会尝试一些突破。

"What was the into the financial sector and state-owned capital the same standard."He said,At present,The CBRC is further comb folk capital into the banking regulations,The next step will be issued relevant implementing regulations,When properly try some breakthrough.

　　“中国金改首要就是准入。”宋敏一针见血地指出，中国的银行体系多是国有的银行为主，将来是不是应该更多地开放给民营的股权，进行一种准入的概念。

"China's gold change first is access."SongMin hit the nail on the head to point out,China's banking system is mainly state-owned Banks,If in the future should be more open to private equity,The concept of a kind of access.

　　

加快推动利率市场化 To speed up the marketization of interest rate and promoting

　　中国银行(601988,股吧)垄断利润的问题备受关注，从而引发了不少关于利率市场化改革的讨论。

The bank of China(601988,guba)Monopoly profit concern about the problem,Thus caused a lot about interest rate marketization reform discussions.

　　人们普遍争议的是，中国商业银行70%-80%的利润来自存款与贷款之间的利率差，而存款利率的上限和贷款利率的下限又是由中央银行限定的，不是由资本市场的供求决定的。

Widespread dispute is,China's commercial Banks 70% - 80% of the profits from the deposit and loan interest rates spread between,And the deposit interest rate upper limit and lower limit of loan interest rate is limited by the central bank,Not by capital market supply and demand of the decision.

　　“利率市场化改革在加快。”周小川在十八大期间答记者问时指出，“利率市场化改革是个过程，如果说是选择快点好还是慢点好，我认为还是选择适当最合适。但总体来讲，如果从改革开放的全过程来看，最近这个阶段，利率市场化改革实际上是在加快。”

"Interest rate marketization reform in speed up."Zhou xiaochuan in the eighteenth big period reporters pointed out,"Interest rate marketization reform is a process,If say choose hurry up good or slowly good,I think still choose the most appropriate appropriate.But generally speaking,If from the whole process of reform and opening up to see,Recently the stage,Interest rate marketization reform are actually speed up."

　　中国从1996年就启动利率市场化改革，并于2003年明确了利率市场化改革的路线图。目前，货币市场和债券市场已经基本实现了利率市场化。但是，中央银行仍然控制着人民币贷款利率的下限和存款利率的上限。中国的利率市场化改革到了最后一步，也是最关键、最实质性、最难的一步。

China from 1996 start up the interest rate marketization reform,And in 2003 has been clear about the interest rate marketization reform the roadmap.At present,Money market and bond market has basically realized the interest rate marketization.but,The central bank still control the RMB loan interest rate lower limit and deposit interest rate upper limit.China's interest rate marketization reform in the last step,Is also the most important/The most substantial/Most difficult step.

　　在宋敏看来，保持存款利率上限及贷款利率下限的主要原因，是担心完全取消利率管制后会造成银行之间对存款的过度竞争，一些银行特别是中小银行可能遇到经营甚至倒闭风险，会给金融体系带来冲击。

In SongMin seems,Keep the deposit interest rate upper limit and lower limit loan interest rate of the main reasons,Is worry about completely cancel the interest rate control causes the bank to deposit between the excessive competition,Some Banks, especially small and medium-sized Banks may meet business even go bankrupt risk,Will give financial system impact.

　　“过去几年，中国的影子银行通过各种贷款工具和中介机构迅速增长，这的确是一个风险。”IMF货币和资本市场部门负责人维纳尔斯日前在《全球金融稳定报告》上表示。过去几年，中国的影子银行通过各种贷款工具和中介机构迅速增长，这是个风险。

"In the past few years,China's shadow Banks through various kinds of loan tools and intermediary organizations rapid growth,This really is a risk."IMF monetary and capital markets department person in charge wiener's before, in[Global financial stability report]Said on.In the past few years,China's shadow Banks through various kinds of loan tools and intermediary organizations rapid growth,This is a risk.

　　中信建投证券交易部总监王琦分析称，两年前开始研究利率市场化问题时，主要集中在对银行及存贷款的影响，但实践上理财、信托等新产品为代表的金融创新才是利率市场化的主要形式。而在不少专家看来，历史和国际经验均表明，利率市场化与汇率改革、资本账户开放是协调配合、相互促进的关系。下一步应继续协调推进这三项金融改革。

Citic securities to build a dealing department director boyer analysis says,Two years ago when the interest rate marketization problem,Mainly focus on the bank and the influence of the loan,But financial practice/Trust and other new products as a representative of financial innovation is the main form of interest rate marketization.And in many experts believe,History and international experience all show,Market-oriented interest rate and exchange rate reform/Capital account liberalization is coordination/Promote each other relations.The next step should continue to coordination promote the three financial reform.

　　利率管制是造成目前经济中投资浪费及中小微企业融资难的重要原因。宋敏称，利率管制对不同贷款人的影响不一样。因为存款利率限制，银行资金成本较低，银行只采用简单的经营方式即扩大存贷款规模，利用管制下存贷利差就可获得高额利润。

Rate control is caused by the present economic investment waste and small and medium-sized micro enterprise financing difficult important reason.SongMin says,Of interest rates for different lenders influence is not the same.Because the deposit interest rate restriction,Bank capital cost is low,A bank will only use simple mode of operation is to expand the loan scale,Use control the loan interest margin can get high profits.

　　“加快金融改革、推动利率市场化在目前来说应是较好的时机。”宋敏强调说，第一，国家“十二五”规划再次强调了转变经济发展模式的重要性。第二，长期的利差保护造成银行缺乏对较高风险贷款的定价能力。第三，近期随国家货币政策的调整，通胀有所下降，实质利率逐步上升。

"Speed up financial reform/Promote the interest rate marketization in present, should be a good opportunity."SongMin emphasized that,The first,countries"1025"Planning once again stressed the importance of the transformation of the economic development mode.The second,Long-term spread caused by the lack of protection of the bank to higher risk of loan pricing power.The third,With the recent national monetary policy adjustment,Inflation fell,Real interest rate to rise gradually.

　　不过宋敏也提醒，放松利率管制必然增加银行之间的竞争，但银行的存贷利差不一定减少。另外，银行的所谓“过度竞争”问题应属金融监管及微观治理及管理的范畴，不应依赖于利率管制这种宏观调控手段。

But SongMin also remind,Relaxation of interest rates will increase the competition between Banks,But the bank loan interest margin not necessarily reduce.In addition,Bank of so-called"Excessive competition"Problems should belong to financial supervision and micro management and management category,Should not be dependent on interest rate control the macroeconomic regulation and control means.

　　“利率市场化必然会遇到少数利益集团的阻碍与反对。只有坚持金融体系改革、开放，才能造就一个高效率的金融体系，为我国经济转型与升级提供急需的金融服务。”宋敏说。

"Interest rate marketization will meet a few interest groups obstacles and against.Only by sticking to the financial system reform/open,To make an efficient financial system,For China's economic transformation and upgrade provide much-needed financial services."SongMin said.

　　

汇率自由化稳健加速 Exchange rate liberalization robust acceleration

　　中国金融开放的另外一个重要指标，就是汇率的自由化。

China's financial opening another important index,Is the exchange rate liberalization.

　　“人民币汇率应加速自由化。”著名经济学家、国务院发展研究中心研究员吴敬琏多次公开表示，中国人民银行对于人民币汇率过度频繁介入，人民币汇率形成机制应加速自由化。

"The RMB exchange rate should be accelerated liberalisation."Renowned economist/The state council development research center WuJingLian researcher said publicly that many times,The people's bank of China for RMB exchange rate excessive frequent intervention,The RMB exchange rate formation mechanism should be accelerated liberalisation.

　　“汇率自由化，就是汇率的水平是不是应该更多地由市场来决定。”宋敏解释称，目前货币兑换在资本项目上是有很多限制的，这是中国金融开放的一个重要内容。汇率自由化和资本项目的开放又是相关的。汇率是一个价格的概念，资本项目是一个量化的概念，就是一个量和价格应该怎么开放的问题。

"Rate liberalization,Is the level of exchange rate should not be more by the market to decide."SongMin explanation says,At present currency exchange in the capital account is there are many restrictions,This is China's financial open a important content.Exchange rate liberalization and the opening of the capital account is related.Exchange rate is the concept of a price,Capital project is a quantitative concept,Is a quantity and price should be how to open the problem.

　　叶檀表示，市场千呼万唤降息与降准，但央行采用的是灵活性更强的回购手段，加上今年以来货币发行与银行贷款增长平稳，没有因经济下行而大规模发放货币，也许可以得出结论，中国大规模发放货币的时代已经结束。未来货币发放将与7%—8%之间的GDP稳健增长、经济结构调整相适应。

Leaf wingceltis said,Market call again and again to cut interest rates and drop quasi,But the central bank USES is flexibility stronger buyback means,And since this year the currency issue and bank loans steady growth,Not because of economic descending and large-scale issue currency,Perhaps may safely draw the conclusion,China's massive issue currency era is over.The future currency issue will and 7% - 8% of GDP between steady growth/Adapt to the readjustment of the economic structure.

　　到今年第一季度末，理财产品总额达到10.4万亿元人民币，相当于银行存款总量的12%。

To the end of the first quarter of this year,Financial products amounted to 10.4 trillion yuan RMB,Equivalent to 12% of the total bank deposits.

　　“中国应谨慎推进汇率自由化。”日本驻联合国原特命全权大使、经济合作开发机构（OECD）副秘书长谷口诚提醒说，发展中国家务必要慎重地推进金融自由化，在自己可控的范围内一步一步地缓慢推进。虽然金融自由化有好处，中国从长远来看也不得不金融自由化，但是中国没有必要猛烈推进，在适合中国国情的范围内施行即可。

"China should be careful to promote exchange rate liberalization."Japan's u.n. former ambassador extraordinary and plenipotentiary/Economic cooperation and development institutions(OECD)Deputy secretary-general debouchure honesty remind said,The development of Chinese household necessary cautiously to promote financial liberalization,In his own controllable scope slowly advance step by step.Although financial liberalization has the advantage,China in the long run will also have to financial liberalization,But China does not need violent propulsion,In the suitable for China's national conditions and within the scope of the can.

　　近日，16家上市银行陆续公布半年报，备受关注的焦点，是银行业不良贷款率普遍上升的问题。16家上市银行中，有14家不良贷款余额上升，7家不良贷款余额与不良贷款率出现双升，这是多年来罕见的。

recently,16 listed bank released annual report in half,The focus of concern,Is banking bad loans generally rise the question.16 listed bank,14 home non-performing loan balance rise,Seven home non-performing loan balance and bad loans appear double rise,This is a rare for many years.

　　兴业银行(601166,股吧)首席经济学家鲁政委为此提出建议，化解不良贷款应从汇率市场化开始。尤其应当优先考虑汇率的市场化。“上世纪80年代以来，全球新兴经济体发生的危机，无论本质原因是什么，其导火索几乎全是汇率的失调。”

Societe generale(601166,guba)Chief economist lu zhengwei therefore put forward the proposal,Dissolve bad loans from exchange rate marketization began.Especially shall give priority to consider the marketization of exchange rate."Since the 1980 s,Global emerging economies of the crisis happened,No matter what is the essential reason,The fuse of almost all of the exchange rate is disorder."

　　十八大金改起航，无论是人民币国际化、利率市场化，还是货币发放，都强调了稳健改革的重要性。管理层称改革必须坚持，进度则由自己决定。不过至少目前形成的共识是—若要实现中国经济从依靠出口拉动增长向以消费为核心的再平衡，金融改革是必要条件。

18 daikin to set sail,Whether RMB internationalization/Interest rate marketization,Or money issue,Have all emphasized the importance of steady reform.Management says reform must adhere to,Progress is determine by themselves.But at least now formed consensus is - if you want to realize China's economic growth from rely on exports to consumption is the core of the balance again,Financial reform is necessary condition.