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　　明年水泥价格将显著高于今年

Next year cement prices will significantly higher than this year

　　由于杭州和南京水泥价格下跌10-20元/吨，该消息使得11月12日水泥股重挫。需要强调的是，水泥价格的回落主要是由于这两个城市前一周水泥价格涨幅过大而无法执行，因此出现一些调整。不过，到年底这些日子里，我们认为华东水泥价格不大可能出现趋势性下降。

Due to the hangzhou and nanjing cement prices 10-20 yuan/ton,The news that November 12 cement shares down sharply.Need to be emphasized,Cement price decline is mainly due to a week before the two cities cement price rise too big and unable to carry out,So there some adjustment.but,By the end of these days,We think that the east China cement price is unlikely to appear trend decline.

　　华南水泥价格或有些压力。华南（广东和广西）水泥价格的上涨部分是由于广东清远的爆炸事故导致生产中断。我们认为，随着生产趋于正常，当地水泥价格有可能进一步回落。

South China cement prices or some pressure.South China(Guangdong and guangxi)Cement prices is due in part to guangdong qingyuan explosion accidents causing production disruptions.We think,As the production and tend to be normal,The local cement prices probably have further to fall.

　　股价因获利了结而有回落，但下行风险有限，原因是我们仍对水泥行业的基本面抱有信心。预计2013年水泥价格将大大高于2012年水平，未来1年水泥行业仍能跑赢大盘。在当前水平上，我们最看好海螺A。

Share price for profits and have dropped,But limited downside risks,The reason is we still of cement industry fundamentals confidence.In 2013 is expected to cement prices will greatly higher than the level of 2012,Future one year cement industry can still run to win the market.In the current level,Our most valued conch A.

　　（瑞银证券）

(Ubs securities)

　　猪价分析回归“本本主义”

Prices analysis regression"bookishness"

　　我们提出判断生猪供求、成本有效数据，建议采用生猪及能繁母猪存栏数、“仔猪/生猪价格”指标判断生猪供给变动趋势；采用定点企业累计屠宰量、餐饮消费增速、我国猪肉产量指标判断猪肉需求变动趋势；采用玉米及豆粕拟合饲料成本，并考虑仔猪、人工 、防疫等成本判断生猪养殖成本变动趋势。

We propose a judgment pig supply and demand/Cost effective data,Recommended the live pig and can numerous sow CunLanShu/"Piglet/pig price"Index judgment pig supply change trend;Adopts fixed point and enterprise accumulated slaughter capacity/Food consumption growth/Our country pork production index judgment pork demand change trend;Using corn and soybean meal fitting feed cost,And consider the piglet/artificial /Epidemic prevention etc cost judgment pig breeding cost change trend.

　　据此判断，中长期猪肉价格中枢上移，猪价维持强周期波动规模企业退出成本大，加剧生猪供给波动，从而加剧猪价波动幅度。从短期看，猪价仍将回落。“仔猪/生猪价格”指标大幅下降反映2012年7月份以后生猪养殖补栏积极性明显下降；我国猪肉需求在2012年初十分低迷，后续逐步恢复，但总体处于较低水平；养殖成本仍维持相对高位。

According to judgment,Long-term pork prices central up,Prices keep strong cycle fluctuation scale enterprise exit cost big,Intensifying the live pig supply fluctuation,Adding to prices fluctuation range.In the short run,Prices will fall."Piglet/pig price"Index plunged reflect in July 2012 after pig-producing fill column enthusiasm declined obviously;Our country pork demand in early 2012 is very low,Subsequent gradually restore,But overall low level;Breeding cost remains relatively high.

　　预计2013年二季度末是选股时间点，维持畜禽养殖行业“谨慎推荐”评级。 （国信证券）

In 2013 at the end of the second quarter is expected to is choose a point in time,Maintain livestock and poultry breeding industry"Cautious recommendation"rating. (Securities held)

　　房地产弱复苏时间拉长

Real estate weak recovery time stretched

　　房地产开工、投资弱复苏时间拉长：1-10月份，新开工累计完成14.68亿平方米，同比下降8.5%，降幅较1-9月份缩小了0.1个百分点，其中住宅新开工降幅较1-9月份缩小了0.2个百分点。在1-9月份新开工数据低于市场预期的情况下，10月份略有改善，同时，新开工的单月降幅较上月出现收窄，新开工数据总体上也低于我们前期预期，但趋势上我们仍然判断弱复苏，只是时间会拉长。

Start real estate/Investment weak recovery time stretched:1 - October,New start accumulated finished 1.468 billion square meters,8.5% year-on-year drop,Drop a 1-9 months went down to 0.1%,The new house start by a 1-9 months went down to 0.2%.In 1 - September start new data under the condition of lower than market expectations,In October, improve slightly,At the same time,New start monthly performance last month by a narrow appears,New start data on the whole is also lower than our initial expectations,But the trend we still judgment weak recovery,Only time can spin.

　　投资情况与新开工类似，1-10 月份房地产开发投资额5.76万亿元，同比增长15.4%，增速保持平稳。分区域看，东部地区的投资增速继续放缓，中部地区则有回暖迹象，而西部地区的增速继续上升。整体来说，投资依然处于筑底时期，银十销售中规中矩但未能有超预期表现，在一定程度上制约了投资的提速。总体上看，投资数据较为符合我们前期预期，预计2012年全年投资增速在16.5%左右。

Investment situation and new similar to start,1 - in October, real estate development investment of 5.76 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 15.4%,To maintain steady growth.Points area see,The eastern region investment growth continued to slow,The central region is warmer signs,And the western region growth rates continue to rise.overall,Investment is still in the period of building bottom,Silver ten compasses sales but failed to have super expected performance,To a certain extent, restrict the speed of investment.In general speaking,Investment data conform to our initial expectations,In the whole year of 2012 is expected to investment growth at around 16.5%.

　　值得一提的是，近期各地对于公积金政策有较多调整，基本方向依然是呵护刚需，我们认为这些调整将对房地产市场长期健康发展起到积极正面的作用。

Be worth what carry is,All over recent for accumulation fund policy have more adjustment,Basic direction is still just need to care,We believe that these adjustments will be on the real estate market long-term health development play a positive role.

　　资金压力趋缓，房企仍需警惕财务压力：1-10月份，房地产开发企业本年到位资金7.64万亿元，同比增长11.6%，增速较1-9月份进一步提升1.5个百分点。国内贷款和个人按揭贷款累计同比增速持续提升，进一步缓解了开发商的资金压力，这也为我们对房地产投资增速弱复苏的判断提供了支撑。不过，我们仍需要警惕开发贷款增加所带来的利息支出，财务费用的增长可能会使得企业最终利润率下降。（中信建投证券）

Fund pressure to slow down,Room enterprises still need to be vigilant financial pressure:1 - October,Real estate development enterprises this year in place capital of 7.64 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 11.6%,Growth is 1 - September further increased by 1.5%.Domestic loans and individual mortgage loan accumulated year-on-year growth continued ascension,Further easing the developer fund pressure,This also for us to real estate investment growth weak recovery judgment to provide support.but,We still need to be vigilant development loan increase brought about by the interest expense,The growth of the financial expenses may make the enterprise finally a decline in margins.(Citic securities to build a)