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解读量化投资 让投资回归理性--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-11-19

  很多投资者一提到量化投资基金都会比较茫然,觉得量化投资基金是普通公募基金中的异类,与繁复的数学模型和信息系统处理联系紧密,与普通投资者的认知和投资方式相去甚远。实际上量化投资早已渗透进我们平日的投资生活,经常看股票行情并且进行一定技术分析的投资者在关注MACD、ADJ等指标时已经开始了其量化投资式的思考。

Many investors at the mention of quantitative investment fund will compare at sea,Think quantitative investment fund is common public offering fund of different species,With heavy and complicated mathematical model and information system processing contact closely,And ordinary investors cognitive and investment are way.In fact quantitative investment had penetration into our daily life investment,Often watch of the stock market and a certain technical analysis of investors in the attention MACD/Such as when ADJ index has begun its quantitative investment type thinking.

   冲动是魔鬼 Impulse is the devil量化模型来帮忙 Quantitative model to help

  可以用一句话描述量化投资的妙处:让模型帮助投资者做出理性决策。定性投资者的偶像股神巴菲特曾说过“在别人贪婪的时候我们恐惧,在别人恐惧的时候我们贪婪。”这正是巴菲特在市场大幅波动时仍然保持理性投资的心理写照。很多投资者看到了巴菲特的成功,但却难以克服自身的人性弱点。而量化投资则利用数学模型来做判断,不会受到人性弱点的影响,因此会获得比较理性的结果。量化投资领域的传奇人物詹姆斯 西蒙斯曾提到:“模型的优势之一是可以降低风险。而依靠个人判断选股,你可能一夜暴富,也可能在第二天又输得精光。”其所管理的大奖章基金1989到2007年的平均年收益率高达35%,成就了华尔街最另类也是最神奇的投资神话。

Can use a phrase to describe the beauty of quantitative investment:Let models help investors to make rational decision.Qualitative investors idol shares god buffett said"In others greedy we fear,In other people fear when we greed."This is what buffett in market fluctuations was still keep the rational investment psychological reflection.Many investors see buffett's success,But it is difficult to overcome their weakness of human nature.And quantitative investment is using mathematical model to do judgment,Has not been affected by the influence of human weakness,So will get a rational result.Quantitative investment field legend James simons mentioned:"One of the advantages of the model can be reduced risk.And rely on personal judgment stock selection,You may coin money overnight,May also be in the second day and chopped off."The management of the medallion fund 1989 to 2007 years of average annual return of 35%,Achievement of Wall Street's most alternative is also the most magical investment myths.

  
“拿来主义”很必要 "copycat"Is necessary契合市场是关键 Agree with market is the key

  量化基金起源于70年代的美国,实属舶来品。海外量化基金的规模庞大,业绩表现也获得了市场的一定认可。尽管如此,在资本市场尚不成熟的中国,量化投资依然是一片亟待开垦的荒原。中国第一只量化投资基金为2004年8月27日成立的光大保德信量化核心(360001,基金吧)基金。2009年的小牛市和2011年的震荡市是量化投资基金高发的两个阶段,共发行9只基金。目前市场上一共有16只,总规模245.17亿元,相比其他较为成熟的投资方式,量化投资在中国的发展尚处于起步和摸索阶段。由于国内市场数据不完善,难以准确量化,同时国外的量化技术也不适用于中国,中国的量化投资基金不仅要借鉴海外市场上的先进模型,更要结合中国资本市场实际情况开发有效性和适应性更高的模型。因此,模型的有效性是量化投资基金成败的关键。

Quantitative funds originated in the 70 s in the United States,Is imported product.Quantitative funds overseas large scale,Performance also won the market must be recognized.Even so,In the capital market is not mature of Chinese,Quantitative investment is still a piece of to be reclaimed the waste land.China's first only quantitative investment fund for August 27, 2004 established everbright the dexin quantify core(360001,Fund it)fund.2009 years of small bull market in 2011 and shock city is quantitative investment fund high-risk two stage,Issued a total of nine fund.On the market at present only a total of 16,The total scale is 24.517 billion yuan,Compared with the other relatively mature investment mode,Quantitative investment development in China is still at the preliminary and exploratory stage.Because the domestic market is not perfect data,Difficult to accurate quantification,At the same time, foreign quantitative technology also does not apply to China,China's quantitative investment fund should not only for reference overseas market advanced model,More to be combined with the actual situation of China capital market development effectiveness and adaptability higher model.therefore,The validity of the model is a key of success or failure in quantitative investment funds.

  

人机结合双保险 The man-machine combined with double insurance

  尽管量化投资基金大量借助模型来帮助分析行业以及个股,“退居二线”的基金经理却并不能像指数型基金单纯复制跟踪指数那般省力。量化投资理论基础在于市场是无效的,或者是弱有效的,因此投资人可以通过对于市场、行业基本面及个别公司的分析,主动建构一个可以取得战胜市场的超额收益的组合。与之相比,指数化等被动投资的理论基础则认为市场是完全有效的,任何企图战胜市场的努力都是徒劳,于是被动地复制指数,以取得和市场一样的收益水平。量化投资基金的好处就在于可以实现“人脑”宏观判断与“电脑”的微观模型相结合。一方面,计算机操作的量化模型可以处理海量的市场信息数据,满足量化投资追求“做大概率事件”,尽量减少犯错误的概率,另一方面,通过模型来做繁复的数据处理可以为基金经理腾出更多时间把握市场宏观走势。

Although quantitative investment fund a lot with the model to help the analysis industry and stocks,"Take a back seat"Fund managers are not like index fund simply copy tracking index that kind of effort.Quantitative investment theoretical basis is the market is invalid,Or is weak effective,So investors can through to market/Industry fundamentals and the analysis of individual companies,Actively constructing a can achieve victory over market excess earnings combination.Compared with,Index and passive investment theoretical basis is that the market is fully effective,Any attempt to beat the market efforts were in vain,So passively copying index,In order to obtain and market the same income level.Quantitative investment fund benefit is that can realize"The human brain"Macroscopic judgment and"computer"Combining the microscopic model.On the one hand,Computer operation quantization model can process mass market information data,Meet the quantitative investment pursuit"Do big probability event",Try to reduce the probability of mistakes,On the other hand,Through the model to do heavy and complicated data processing for the fund manager can make more time grasp the market macroscopic trend.

  目前国内市场上的量化投资基金对于模型的利用依然以多因子选股为主,其他方面应用较少,主动投资仍然占据主导地位,数量化投资和传统定性投资相结合是现有量化概念基金中较为普遍的策略。(金牛理财网)

In the current domestic market of quantitative investment fund for the use of model still to many factor stock selection is given priority to,The application of the other less,Active investment is still dominant,Quants and traditional qualitative investment is the combination of the existing quantitative concept funds of the more common strategy.(Taurus financial network)



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