■向松祚

S elementary to loose

　　从欧洲到中国，从英国到美国，全球到处都在谈论“新金融”。

From Europe to China,From Britain to the United States,In talking about global everywhere"New financial".

　　9月11日，夏季达沃斯天津年会举办了一场小型专题会议，辩论“战略转型：金融之未来”。与会者是全球知名的重量级银行家，包括JP摩根集团全球投资银行业务总管JeffreyUrwin，渣打银行集团CEO Peter Sands，招商银行(600036,股吧)行长马蔚华。他们不约而同地强调全球银行业面临三大严峻挑战，传统银行模式难以为继，再造金融刻不容缓。新金融风起云涌，“创造性毁灭”势不可挡。新金融必将毁灭或颠覆传统银行主导地位。

On September 11,,Tianjin summer davos annual meeting held a small project meeting,debate"Strategic transformation:Financial future".Participants is the world famous heavyweight bankers,Including JP Morgan group global investment bank business controller JeffreyUrwin,Standard chartered bank group CEO Peter Sands,Merchants bank(600036,guba)President MaWeiHua.They happen to coincide emphasis on global banking faces three big challenges,Traditional bank mode unsustainable,It is the financial.New financial blustery,"Creative destruction"unstoppable.New financial will destroy or subvert the traditional bank leading position.

　　第一大趋势乃是重塑银行金融业的公信力和信誉度，是再造金融的首要任务。传统银行和金融业务的公信力遭受沉重打击。2008年爆发全球金融危机，银行公信力和信誉度遭遇空前重创。许多人不认为银行对经济增长和民生改善有正面贡献，他们相信银行家的贪婪无度和高杠杆经营直接酿成金融危机。

The first big trend is to reshape bank financial trust and credibility,Is the financial primary task.Traditional Banks and financial business credibility suffered a heavy blow.The global financial crisis broke out in 2008,The bank public trust and credibility encountered unprecedented defeat.Many people don't think bank to economic growth and improve people's livelihood a positive contribution,They believe that the banker's greed wantonly and high lever operation directly into financial crisis.

　　美国一家金融咨询公司曾经对《纽约时报》、《华尔街日报(博客,微博)》、《金融时报》等全球主要财经媒体做过初步统计。结果显示，金融危机以来，银行金融界的负面报道急剧上升，负面新闻和丑闻数量之年增速超过24%。受此负面影响，全球银行市盈率皆显著下降。各国股市里，银行板块的市盈率不仅显著低于股市平均水平，而且显著低于其他消费类公司的市盈率。今年7月，路透社财经频道调查显示，欧元区10大银行市值，没有一家能够超过Google的1/3。再造金融的首要任务，就是重塑银行金融业的公信力和信誉度。然而这是极其艰巨的任务，非一夜之间可以成功。

An American financial consulting company ever[The New York times]/[The Wall Street journal(blog,Micro bo)]/[Financial times]And one of the world's major financial media do preliminary statistics.Results show that,Since the financial crisis,Bank financial circles of the negative reports rising sharply,Negative news and scandal in number of growth of more than 24%.By this negative effect,The global bank p/e ratio are significantly.Countries in the stock market,Bank plate of p/e ratio is not only significantly lower than the average level of the stock market,And significantly lower than other consumer company p/e ratio.July,Reuters financial channel survey,The euro area 10 big bank market value,No one can be more than a third of the Google.Reconstruction of the finance of the primary task,Is to reshape bank financial trust and credibility.However, this is extremely arduous task,Not one night can be successful.

　　第二大趋势是监管的全面强化和改革。2010年出台的《巴塞尔协议Ⅲ》，成为笼罩全球银行业的新魔咒。假若真的全面实施，必将大幅度降低银行杠杆比率，增加经营成本，减少收入和利润。

The second big trend is the comprehensive reform and strengthen supervision.In 2010 on the introduction of the[Basel agreement Ⅲ],Become in the global banking new spell.If really full implementation,Will reduce bank leverage ratio,Increase operational cost,Reduce revenue and profit.

　　此外，各国亦大幅加强银行金融监管。2010年美国通过的金融改革法案即《多德-弗兰克法案》篇幅高达900页，据说没有哪个银行家细读新法案条款。根据多家机构测算，《巴塞尔协议Ⅲ》和美国《多德-弗兰克法案》，将至少增加银行经营成本10%~15%。再造金融的第二项重大任务，就是创新经营思路，转变经营模式，以谋求新的宏观审慎监管环境下的生存空间。

In addition,Countries also greatly improve bank financial supervision.In 2010 the United States through the financial reform bill that is[Dodd - frank act]Length reaches as high as 900,It is said that no bankers to read the new law clause.According to several agency estimates,[Basel agreement Ⅲ]And the United States[Dodd - frank act],Will at least increase bank operating costs by 10% ~ 15%.Reengineering financial second major task,Is innovative business ideas,Change management mode,To seek new macro prudential supervision environment of living space.

　　第三大趋势是飞速进步的信息科技将传统银行推到生死存亡的悬崖边缘。搜索引擎和互联网社区的飞速发展，超出所有人预期，深刻改变了人们的交往方式和金融交易模式。

The third big trend is the rapid progress of information technology will traditional bank pushed to the edge of the cliff of life and death.Search engine and the rapid development of the Internet community,Beyond all expectations,Profoundly changed the people's communication mode, and financial transaction mode.

　　通过社交网络，人们可以实施协议存款和贷款，建立信用评级系统和信用等级系统，创立投资项目的专家评估体系，完成债券发行、股票发行、信托投资、私募基金和公募基金（网络世界里，二者的区分已经失去意义）等一切金融产品的申购和竞价，实现网络资金的即时交易。理论上，互联网社区和搜索引擎能够取代所有传统银行业务。

Through the social network,People can implement agreement deposits and loans,Establish the credit rating system and credit rating system,The experts established investment project evaluation system,Complete bond issue/Stock issuance/Trust and investment/Private equity funds and public offering fund(Network world,The distinction between them has lost its meaning)And all financial product purchase and bidding,To realize network real-time trading funds.In theory,The Internet community and search engines can take the place of all the traditional banking business.

　　与此同时，iPad和各种新型电子终端日新月异，功能日益强大，电子货币、电子支付、手机银行等新型金融业务正在快速蚕食传统银行业务，再造金融刻不容缓。

meanwhile,IPad and all kinds of new type electronic terminal change with each passing day,Function increasingly powerful,Electronic currency/Electronic payment/Mobile phone bank and so on the new financial business are rapidly encroach on the traditional banking business,It is the financial.

　　近日，我到德国慕尼黑郊外山区度假胜地Schloss Elman参加The Stern Stewart Institute的年度峰会。无独有偶，峰会专设两场会议讨论新金融。

recently,I went to Munich mountains outside The Schloss Elman resort in The Stern Stewart Institute's annual summit.similarly,Summit AD hoc two games meeting to discuss new financial.

　　根据峰会组织者对欧元区融资前景的调查，在所有六大项融资手段里，银行融资的重要性已经降到第三位。第一位是企业自有资金，第二位是债券融资，排在银行融资后面三位的，则分别是股票和可转债融资、非银行金融机构贷款和私募股权融资。

According to the organizers summit to the euro zone finance future investigation,In all six items in financing means,The importance of bank financing has fallen to the third.The first is the enterprise own reserves,The second is the bond financing,Row in the bank financing back three,Respectively is stock and convertible debt financing/Non-bank financial institution loans and private equity financing.

　　与此相关的一项调查表明，未来10年里，欧元区银行贷款占全部社会融资的比重将持续下降，债券融资和其他非银行贷款融资的比重将持续上升，金融版图将出现革命性变化。

The related a survey,The next 10 years,The eurozone bank loans accounted for the proportion of all social financing will continue to decline,Bond financing and other non-bank loan financing proportion will continue to increase,Financial territory will appear revolutionary change.