靓丽的经济数据背后暗藏三大隐忧：全球经济放缓、欧债危机、“财政悬崖”，其中“财政悬崖”已成为投资者担忧的头号问题。在其面前，单靠美联储已无能为力，欲将其解决，至少需拖至大选之后。一旦美国国会不能达成协议避免自动加税和政府开支削减，明年将有约6000亿美元资金流出美国，或导致经济陷入又一轮衰退

Beautiful beautiful economic data hidden behind three big worries:The global economic slowdown/The debt crisis/"Financial cliff",the"Financial cliff"Has become the number one problem investors worry.In front of the,The federal reserve has alone helpless,To solve the,At least need to drag to after the election.Once the congress of the United States fail to reach an agreement avoid automatic taxes and government spending cuts,Next year will be about $600 billion fund outflow the United States,Or cause the economy into a recession and round

　　中信银行(601998,股吧)副行长

Citic bank(601998,guba)Vice President

　　中国人民大学国际货币研究所联席所长

China people's university international monetary institute associate director

　　■ 曹彤

S CaoTong

　　中国人民大学国际货币研究所研究员

China people's university researcher at the institute of international currency

　　国务院发展研究中心国际技术经济研究所助理研究员

The state council development research center, international technology economic research institute assistant researcher

　　■ 曲双石

S song ShuangShi

　　美国金融形势评论

The United States financial situation review

　　QE3推出以来，美国经济数据大面积回暖，部分重要经济数据表现强劲。

Since the launch of QE3,Economic data in the us is large area milder,Part of the important economic data strong.

　　首先表现在就业方面。美国劳工部数据显示，9月份美国新增非农就业岗位11.4万，略超市场预期，但失业率环比大幅下降0.3个百分点至7.8%，低于8%的“总统连任临界点”，创2009年1月以来新低。而且，0.3个百分点的下降是在更多美国人重返就业市场寻找工作的条件下取得的。同时，7、8月的雇佣总量整体上调8.6万。

The first performance in employment.The United States department of labor data show,The United States in September new non-agricultural employment post 114000,Slightly more than market expectations,But unemployment link fell sharply by 0.3% to 7.8%,Less than 8% of the"Term as President critical point",And a new low since January 2009.and,0.3% of the decline is in more americans to return to the employment market in search of work conditions obtained.At the same time,7/August 86000 the total amount raised the whole employment.

　　其次表现在房地产方面。二手房销售方面，美国房地产经纪商协会数据显示，8月份美国二手房销量环比增长7.8%，年化后销量增至482万幢，创2010年5月以来新高，远超预期的455万幢。得益于超低价售房的减少（8月份超低价售房在全部二手房销量中占比22%，远低于一年前的31%），二手房售价中位值增至18.74万美元，同比增长9.5%；新屋方面，美国商务部新屋销售报告显示，虽然8月份美国经季调并年化的新屋销量为37.3万幢，环比下降0.3%，但新屋售价中位值环比大涨11.2%至25.69万美元，环比涨幅创有统计历史以来新高。新屋开建和营建许可报告显示，9月份美国新屋开建环比大涨15%，经季调并年化的总量增至87.2万幢，远超预期的77万幢，创2008年7月以来之最。

Second performance in real estate.Second-hand housing sales,The United States real estate brokers association data display,In August the second-hand housing sales growth of 7.8% annulus,Years after the turn to 4.82 million building sales,Gen since May 2010 highs,Far more than the 4.55 million expected building.Benefit in low-cost housing reduction(August ultra low-cost housing in all sales of second-hand housing in more than 22%,Far less than 31% a year ago),The price of second-hand housing a value to $187400,Year-on-year growth of 9.5%;The new house in,The us department of commerce housing sales report,Although the United States the season in August is adjustable and annualised new house sales for 373000 building,Link fell by 0.3%,But the new house price median value chain rose 11.2% to $256900,Link or and statistics history high.New house open building and construction license report shows,September new house open built link rose 15%,The adjustable and season in the amount of change to 872000 a,Far more than the 770000 expected building,Since July 2008 and the most.

　　此外，房地美数据显示，由于QE3对利率施加了下行压力，截至10月18日当周，美国固定抵押贷款利率一路下行，与QE3推出前相比，当周美国30年期、15年期定息抵押贷款平均利率分别下降0.18%、0.19%，均处于历史最低值附近，将进一步刺激房地产买卖。

In addition,Freddie MAC data display,QE3 due to put interest rates downward pressure,As of October 18 week,The United States fixed mortgage rates all the way down,Compared with QE3 introduced before,This week the United States for 30 years/15 10-year fixed rate mortgage average interest rate were down by 0.18%/0.19%,In history are near the lowest,Will further stimulate the real estate business.

　　数据表明，在2008年次贷危机中崩盘的美国房地产已先于美国经济步入了持续复苏通道。

Data show that,In 2008 the subprime crisis crash of American real estate already before the U.S. economy into a sustained recovery channel.

　　消费方面，美国商务部数据显示，季调后9月份美国零售和餐饮服务业销售额增长1.1%至4129.4亿美元，超过增长0.7%的预期，为连续第三个月增长；汤森路透集团和密歇根大学联合发布的消费者信心报告显示，得益于消费者对整体经济改善持乐观立场，10月份美国消费者信心指数初值为83.1，远超9月份78.3的终值及预期的78，创2007年9月以来最高纪录。此外，经济现状指数增至88.6，超过9月份85.7的终值及86的预期。消费者预期指数由73.5攀升至79.5，高于预期的74，同时也创下2007年7月以来最高纪录。

Consumer spending,The us department of commerce data display,Season after adjustment in September the United States retail and catering services sales growth of 1.1% to $412.94 billion,More than 0.7% of the expected growth,For the third consecutive month growth;Townsend Reuters group and the university of Michigan consumer confidence report issued jointly by the display,Consumers benefit from the overall economic improve optimistic position,In October, the United States consumer confidence index initial value is 83.1,Far above September 78.3 final value and the expected 78,Gen highest since September 2007 record.In addition,The current state of the economy index to 88.6,More than September 85.7 final value and 86 expected.Consumer expectations index climbed to 79.5 from 73.5,Higher than the 74 expected,At the same time also set a since July 2007 record.

　　制造业方面，美国供应管理协会数据显示，9月份美国制造业指数环比增至51.5，超过8月的49.6及预期的49.7，摆脱了此前连续3个月萎缩的颓势，且为今年5月以来首次超越50这一荣枯分界线。重要的先行性子指数方面，新订单指数由47.1增至52.3，创今年5月以来新高。同时，雇佣指数也由51.6增至54.7。

Manufacturing aspects,The institute for supply management data display,In September the United States manufacturing index link to 51.5,More than eight months of 49.6 and 49.7 expected,Get rid of the previous three consecutive months atrophy in games,And for this year for the first time since may beyond 50 this vicissitude demarcation line.The first important temper index aspects,New orders index from 47.1 to 52.3,And since may of this year record.At the same time,Employment index also from 51.6 to 54.7.

　　但是，靓丽的经济数据背后暗藏三大隐忧：全球经济放缓、欧债危机、“财政悬崖”，其中“财政悬崖”已成为投资者担忧的头号问题。在其面前，单靠美联储已无能为力，欲将其解决，至少需拖至大选之后。一旦美国国会不能达成协议避免自动加税和政府开支削减，明年将有约6000亿美元资金流出美国，或导致经济陷入又一轮衰退。

but,Beautiful beautiful economic data hidden behind three big worries:The global economic slowdown/The debt crisis/"Financial cliff",the"Financial cliff"Has become the number one problem investors worry.In front of the,The federal reserve has alone helpless,To solve the,At least need to drag to after the election.Once the congress of the United States fail to reach an agreement avoid automatic taxes and government spending cuts,Next year will be about $600 billion fund outflow the United States,Or cause the economy into a recession and round.

　　此外，虽然在QE3的刺激下美国经济数据表现抢眼，但其仍在多方面引起各界人士担忧：

In addition,Although in QE3 stimulating economic data in the us is performance grab an eye,But it is still in the various concerns caused by people from all walks of life:

　　一是将QE3与确切的失业率指标挂钩可能带来风险。失业率数据极不稳定，可能因某些错误缘由而出现起伏，指标意义欠佳。

One is to put the QE3 and exact unemployment index hook can bring risk.Unemployment data unstable,May be some mistake reason and appear fluctuation,Poor index significance.

　　二是QE3能否如美联储所愿刺激消费尚不得而知。虽然伯南克寄希望于QE3带来的资产价格升高所造成的财富效应有助于促使消费者增加消费，可一旦QE3导致美国通胀率抬头，许多家庭因担心工资慢于物价上涨速度将只会增加储蓄，增加消费的愿望恐将破灭。

The second is the federal reserve QE3 can be such as to stimulate consumption is still unknown.Although Mr Bernanke hope that QE3 brings asset prices caused by increased the wealth effect encourages consumers to increase consumption,But once QE3 led to the American inflation looked up,Many families because worry about wage slower than price increases speed will only increase savings,Increase consumption desire fear will burst.

　　三是QE3拉低了长期利率水平，虽然可刺激抵押贷款需求让银行获益，但势必影响存贷款利差，削弱银行盈利能力，对主要依赖存贷款业务的小银行来说更是如此。

The third is QE3 down long-term interest rates,Although can stimulate mortgage loan demand let benefit bank,But certainly will influence the loan interest margin,Weaken the bank profitability,To mainly depends on the loan business of small Banks is even more so.

　　四是QE3将给新兴经济体的发展蒙上阴影，它们将对美联储和美国政府施加巨大的政治压力。首先，QE3出笼之后，廉价的美国资金将流向增长较快的新兴国家，推高其股市和大宗商品价格，使其面临输入型通胀和资产泡沫膨胀压力；其次，QE3给新兴经济体的货币带来了极大的升值压力，削弱了众多发展中国家的出口竞争力，进一步加剧了全球经济衰退。目前，曾饱受量化宽松政策之苦的巴西已开始强烈反对QE3。

The fourth is QE3 will give emerging economies development overshadowed,They will be for the fed and the U.S. government exert huge political pressure.First of all,After QE3 launch,Cheap money will flow to the rapid growth of emerging countries,Pushing up the stock market and commodity prices,From the imported inflation and asset bubbles in the inflation pressure;secondly,QE3 give emerging economies monetary brought great appreciation pressure,Weaken the numerous developing countries export competitiveness,Further intensifies the global recession.At present,Suffered from quantitative easing policy bitter Brazil has started to strongly opposed to QE3.

　

　欧洲金融形势评论 European financial situation review

　　受欧债危机与全球经济发展动力不足影响，欧元区经济增长前景黯淡，但ESM的正式运行却在一定程度上提振了投资者信心。

By the debt crisis and global economic development underpowered influence,The eurozone economy growth prospects dark,But ESM formal operation is in a certain extent boost investor confidence.

　　欧央行宣布OMT以来，虽然部分数据有改善迹象，但仍难扭转经济疲弱状况。

European central bank announced that since the OMT,Although some data have improve signs,But it is still difficult to reverse the economic situation.

　　就业方面，欧盟统计局数据显示，随着欧债危机将经济推向衰退并促使企业裁员，8月份欧元区失业率升至11.4%，6月份和7月份失业率也被上调至11.4%，创该数据1995年问世以来最高水平。

employment,Eurostat data display,With the debt crisis will economy into a recession and promote the enterprise layoffs,The unemployment rate rose to 11.4% in August the euro area,In June and July unemployment rate was also rise to 11.4%,And the data in 1995 since the advent of the highest level.

　　实体经济方面，Markit调查显示，9月份欧元区综合PMI由46.3降至46.1，为2009年5月以来最低，且为过去13个月里第12个月低于50的荣枯分界线。其中，新业务指数由44.4降至43.8，为2009年6月以来最低。此外，9月份欧元区服务业PMI出现大面积、大幅度下跌，其中欧元区由47.2降至46.1，为2009年7月以来最低。商业预期指数由53.6降至49.4，为2009年3月以来最低。西班牙由44降至40.2，为2011年11月以来最低。整体上，PMI数据表明欧央行的新购债计划尚未有效提振实体经济，四季度欧元区恢复增长的可能性微乎其微。

Entity economy,Markit survey,In September the euro zone comprehensive PMI fell to 46.1 from 46.3,For 2009 years the lowest since may,And for the past 13 months 12 months less than 50 vicissitude demarcation line.the,New business index fell to 43.8 from 44.4,For 2009 years the lowest since June.In addition,In September the eurozone services PMI appear large area/Has greatly decreased,The euro zone fell to 46.1 from 47.2,For the lowest since July 2009.The commercial expectations index fell to 49.4 from 53.6,For 2009 years the lowest since march.Spain by 44 fell to 40.2,For since November 2011 minimum.overall,PMI data show that the ECB new purchase debt plan has not been effectively boost the real economy,The fourth quarter the eurozone recovery is likely to have grown very little.

　　欧元区经济增长虽步伐踉跄，但ESM的正式启动却成为一针兴奋剂，有助于减弱欧债危机恶化的风险，恢复欧元区市场信心。

Although the euro zone economic growth pace totter,But ESM official start became a needle stimulants,Help to abate the debt crisis of the deterioration of the risk,The eurozone restore market confidence.

　　ESM初步运作能力为2000亿欧元，此后三年内将逐步达到5000亿欧元。未来一年内，ESM与EFSF将同时运作，但任何新的救助项目都将由ESM负担。EFSF和ESM可在一二级市场购买债券、为欧元区成员国主权债券提供担保，并提供全面救助。由于其具有较高的资本比例，高质量和强流动性资产，具有优先债权人状态，治理状态强，享受有力的政治支持并具有审慎的投资指引，甫一推出即获穆迪与惠誉的“AAA”级评级。

ESM preliminary operation ability for 200 billion euros,Then three years will gradually achieve the 500 billion euros.The next year,ESM and EFSF will also operation,But any new programs are made by ESM burden.EFSF and ESM can be in 12 buy bonds market/For the eurozone member sovereign bonds to provide security,And to provide comprehensive rescue.Since it has higher capital ratio,High quality and strong liquidity assets,With preferred creditor status,Management state strong,Enjoy strong political support and has the prudent investment guidelines,Just a launch that won the moody's and fitch"aaa"Level rating.

　　此外，欧元区另一大利好是欧央行与美、日相比仍有下调利率空间。若其认为欧元区通胀水平不会急剧上升，则可进一步削减基准利率刺激经济。

In addition,The eurozone another big benefit is the ECB and beauty/Days still has cut interest rates than space.If they think the eurozone inflation will not rise sharply,Can be further cut benchmark interest rate to stimulate the economy.

　　西班牙财政状况持续恶化，其在是否申请援助问题上“拖”字当头，严重破坏了市场稳定性。

The Spanish financial situation continued to worsen,Whether the application for aid problem"drag"Word pledge,Serious damage the market stability.

　　西班牙政府数据显示，8月份西班牙财政赤字总额增至501.32亿欧元，同比暴涨23.8%，与GDP之比由4.62%增至4.77%。从收支状况看，8月份西班牙财政收入减少1.7%，支出则增加8.5%；西班牙央行数据显示，其公共债务突破8000亿欧元，占GDP75.9%，达到历史最高水平。7月份西班牙金融机构坏账率达9.86%，刷新历史最高纪录；10月19日，该国巴利阿里群岛和阿斯图里亚斯成为最新一批请求中央政府救援的自治区。至此，已有8个地区申请援助，用于帮助偿付地区债务的基金被动用的资金已高于170亿欧元，应对其他地区资金需求的资源已非常有限。

The Spanish government data show,In August the Spanish fiscal deficit amount to 50.132 billion euros,Surged 23.8% year-on-year,And the ratio of GDP to 4.77% from 4.62%.See from the receipts and expenditures,In August the Spanish financial income decreased by 1.7%,Spending has increased by 8.5%;The Spanish central bank data display,Its public debt breakthrough 800 billion euros,GDP75.9 % of,Hit a record high.In July the Spanish financial institutions bad debt rate was 9.86%,Refresh record;On October 19,The balearic islands and asturias become the latest batch of request the central government rescue autonomous regions.So far,For eight areas for aid,Used to help pay the debt in the funds are used funds has more than 17 billion euros,Deal with other areas fund demand of resource has very limited.

　　此外，西班牙的政治不确定性日益增强。西班牙政府正在推动的地方政府限制过度支出活动已促使加泰罗尼亚自治区掀起独立热潮。其是该国最富裕地区，占西班牙GDP的20%。

In addition,Spain's political uncertainty buildup.The Spanish government is promoting the local governments to limit excessive expenditure activity has prompted the catalonian autonomous region caused independent boom.It is the country's richest regions,Of the Spanish 20% of GDP.

　　9月27日，西班牙政府宣布了详细的经济改革时间表，并提交了一份主要以削减支出为基础的2013年预算计划。此计划已超出欧盟委员会对西班牙的要求，标志着该国在经济改革方面迈出了一大步。但该计划有四大缺陷：首先，对2013年经济萎缩0.5%的宏观经济预期恐怕过于乐观。一旦该目标无法实现，政府需进一步削减支出；其次，给本已受到危机重创的国民带来了更大压力，很可能触发更加暴力的街头抗议活动，使预算削减在实施环节面临更多困难；第三，该计划中多项措施缺乏实施细节，如如何提高助学金与退休金、如何向养老金储备基金借款以满足部分国库需求等；第四，或使西班牙经济出现“内爆”并大幅减少税收，无法实现减赤目标。

On September 27,,The Spanish government announced the detailed economic reform schedule,And submit a main to cut back on spending as the foundation of the 2013 budget plan.The plan is beyond the European commission to Spain's requirements,Marks the country in the economic reform have made an important step forward.But the plan has four defect:First of all,For the 2013 economic contraction 0.5% of macroeconomic expected I'm afraid too optimistic.Once the target unable to realize,The government further cut back on spending;secondly,For this has been a crisis of national bring greater pressure,Is likely to trigger more violent street protests,Make budget cut in the implementation of link face more difficulties;The third,The plan of the lack of details of the implementation measures,Such as how to improve the grants and pension/How to pension reserve fund loan to meet part of the Treasury needs etc.;The fourth,Or make the Spanish economy appear"implosion"And greatly reduce the tax,Unable to realize minus red goal.

　　因此，评级机构对其并不认可，Egan-Jones、标普接连下调西班牙主权信用评级及地区、银行信用评级。

therefore,Rating agencies to its do not recognize,Egan - Jones/S&p cut in Spanish sovereign credit rating and the area/Bank credit rating.

　　考虑到西班牙的经济形势与债务负担，其寻求全面救助似已在所难免。若其迟迟不提出求援请求，OMT计划将无用武之地，将严重打击欧元区各界信心。同时，包括法国、比利时在内的债权国国内经济也极不景气，若欧债危机不能尽快稳定，它们将自身难保。但西班牙在此问题上尽显犹豫与徘徊，西班牙政府内部及欧元区内部在此问题上甚至经常传出完全相反的表述。

Considering the Spanish economic situation and the debt burden,It seeks comprehensive rescue seems to have unavoidable.If the lingering appeal is put forward,OMT plan will not useful,Will serious blow the eurozone faith from all walks of life.At the same time,Including France/Belgium, the creditor country domestic economy also highly boom,If the debt crisis is not stable as soon as possible,They will be difficult to itself.But Spain on this issue all show hesitate to wander,The Spanish government internal and within the euro area in this problem and even often spread completely opposite expression.

　　西班牙之所以在此问题上施展“拖”字诀，主要受三大因素制约：一是不愿忍受苛刻的援助条件。根据OMT计划，一国必须向ESM申请救助，并接受比较苛刻的条件，之后才会在二级市场参与购债；二是意大利。意大利目前为欧债危机的“次中心”，一旦西班牙寻求救助，意大利将由次中心变为中心，其在巨大压力下也只能在相关条件下改革本国经济。此外，西班牙政府拖延申请救助，还可与意大利协调立场，联合讨价还价；三是德国。西班牙希望德国经济恶化，使自身在谈判中处于更加有利和灵活的位置。此外，默克尔也担忧德国议会对多次救助感到厌倦。

Spain is in this display"drag"Word tactic,Mainly by three factors:One is not willing to stand the harsh conditions of aid.According to the OMT plan,One country must apply for assistance to ESM,And accept more harsh terms,Later in the secondary market will participate in purchase debt;The second is the Italian.Italy is now for the debt crisis"Times center",Once the Spain for rescue,Italy will the secondary center to center,The only under great pressure in the relevant reform under the condition of domestic economy.In addition,The Spanish government would apply for assistance,Also with the Italian coordination position,Joint bargaining;The third is Germany.The Spanish hope that the German economy worse,Make their own in the negotiation in a more favorable and flexible position.In addition,Merkel also worry that Germany's parliament to multiple salvage feel tired.

　　但目前留给西班牙的时间已不多。高盛指出，10月底西班牙将有300亿欧元债务到期，到年底共有740亿欧元债务需偿还，其融资成本已超过西班牙承受能力。西班牙政府拖延得越久，对市场信心及西班牙经济与银行业的伤害也越大。

But at present to Spain's time is not much.Goldman sachs pointed out that,The end of October Spain will have 30 billion euros debt maturity,By the end of the year a total of 74 billion euros to repay the debt,The cost of their funds has more than Spain to bear ability.The Spanish government the longer delay,The market confidence and the Spanish economic and banking the damage.

　　

日本金融形势评论 Japan's financial situation review

　　日本实体经济持续疲软，通缩阴影挥之不去，日本央行或采取进一步宽松措施。

Japan entity economy remains weak,Deflation lingering shadow,The bank of Japan or take further measures to loose.

　　在欧债危机阴云不散，新兴市场经济增长放慢，尤其是中国经济放缓的大背景下，日本经济饱受冲击，出口和工业产出趋于疲软。

In the debt crisis dark clouds do not come loose,Emerging market economic growth to slow down,Especially in China under the background of economic slowdown,Japan's economy suffered from shock,Exports and industrial output weakening.

　　日本财务省数据显示，8月份日本连续第二个月出现贸易赤字，赤字额达7541亿日元。其中出口同比下跌5.8%，为连续3个月下跌；日本经济产业省数据显示，季调后，8月份日本工矿业生产指数环比下降1.3%至90.5。从行业看，电子零部件和设备、信息通讯机械、化工等生产下滑明显。基于此，日本经产省将8月份工矿业生产基调判断从“盘整倾向”下调为“疲软倾向”。此外，8月份日本工业产出修正值月率下滑1.6%，年率下降4.3%。

Japan's finance ministry data display,In August for the second straight month Japan a trade deficit,Deficit of 754.1 billion yen.The exports fell 5.8% year-on-year,For three consecutive months down;The Japanese economy ministry data display,Season after adjustment,August Japan GongKuangYe production index chain fell 1.3% to 90.5.From the industry to see,Electronic components and equipment/Information communication mechanical/Chemical production decline significantly.Based on this,Japan multiparity provinces will be August GongKuangYe production from fundamental key judgment"Consolidation tendency"Cut for"Weak tendency".In addition,August Japan industrial output correction month rate fell 1.6%,Annual rate fell by 4.3%.

　　同时，日本通缩状态仍未改观。日本总务省数据显示，去除价格变动较大的生鲜食品后，8月份日本核心消费价格指数为99.6，同比下降0.3%，为连续4个月同比下降。当月，包括生鲜食品在内的综合消费价格指数为99.4，同比下降0.4%。此外，作为物价先行指标的东京都23区，9月份核心消费价格指数为99.3，同比下降0.4%。

At the same time,Japan's deflation state is still not changed.Japanese ministry data display,Remove price change larger after fresh food,August Japan core consumer price index is 99.6,0.3% year-on-year drop,For four consecutive months year-on-year decline.month,Including fresh food, the composite consumer price index is 99.4,0.4% year-on-year drop.In addition,As prices of leading indicators Tokyo and area,September core consumer price index is 99.3,0.4% year-on-year drop.

　　在此基本面下，日本央行或在10月30日货币政策会议上下调经济增长预估，并考虑放宽货币政策，购买ETF及REITs。

On this fundamental next,The bank of Japan or in October 30, monetary policy meeting down economic growth estimate,And consider easing monetary policy,Buy ETF REITs and.

　　日本在中日钓鱼岛争端中遭受严重经济损失，而与此同时，日本经济也在加速“去中国化”进程。

In Japan the diaoyu islands in the dispute is suffering from a severe economic losses,And at the same time,The Japanese economy are also accelerating"To Chinese"process.

　　中日钓鱼岛争端使日本经济雪上加霜，汽车业、家电业、旅游业损失尤为惨重。

The diaoyu islands dispute that Japan's economy down,Automobile industry/Home appliances/Tourism is particularly heavy losses.

　　汽车业方面，中国民众抗议活动中相继发生的日系车受损事件严重影响了日系车销售。日系车三巨头丰田、日产、本田9月份在华汽车销量数据显示，丰田汽车在华销量同比大幅下降48.9%至44100辆，日产汽车销量同比减少35.3%至76066辆，本田汽车销量减少40.5%至33931辆。与此同时，德系车、美系车、韩系车则乘势而上。若钓鱼岛争端不能尽快解决，日本车企盈利将长时间承压，日本汽车品牌将逐步丧失中国市场份额。

Automobile industry in,The Chinese public protests occurred in succession in Japanese damaged event seriously affected the Japanese sales.Japanese three giant Toyota/nissan/Honda September in China auto sales data display,Toyota sales in China fell sharply by 48.9% compared to 44100 vehicles,Nissan auto sales year-on-year reduced by 35.3% to 76066 vehicles,Honda car sales decreased by 40.5% to 33931 vehicles.meanwhile,German cars/American cars/Korean cars, takes advantage of a favorable situation on.If the diaoyu islands dispute cannot be settled as soon as possible,Japanese car enterprise profit will be long time pressure,Japanese car brand will gradually lose Chinese market share.

　　家电业方面，奥维咨询公布的中秋国庆双节监测数据显示，中国彩电市场品牌格局出现较大变化，创维、TCL等本土品牌占有率由去年同期的59%升至67%，而索尼、夏普等8个日系品牌则由30%降至不足18%。

In home appliances,Mr D consulting published by the National Day Mid-Autumn festival double festival monitoring data shows,Chinese color TV market brand pattern appear bigger change,skyworth/Such as TCL native brand share the same period last year by 59% to 67%,While SONY/Sharp, eight day system brand is decreased from 30% to less than 18%.

　　旅游业方面，摩根大通预计，四季度中国赴日游客数量将下降70%，日本旅游收入将减少670亿日元，占日本当季预计出口损失的38%。

tourism,Jpmorgan chase is expected to,Four quarter in China, the number of visitors will decline 70%,Japanese tourist income will be reduced from 67 billion yen,Japan is expected to account for 38% of exports quarter loss.

　　与此同时，针对中国近两个月的反日浪潮，加之中国廉价劳动力资源不断减少，日本国内主张“去中国化”、进军东南亚的呼声渐涨，日企撤离中国市场和减少在华投资力度的动向更加明显。

meanwhile,According to China nearly two months of anti-japanese tide,China's cheap labor and resources declining,The Japanese domestic claims"To Chinese"/The voice of the southeast Asia gradually rise,Day look forward to evacuate the Chinese market and reduce investment in China, the trend is more obvious.

　　日本财务省数据显示，2011年度，日本在东南亚地区直接投资金额环比增加2.4倍，达1.5万亿日元，而对华直接投资仅1万亿日元，为连续2年出现“对东南亚投资超过对华”现象。今年4～6月，日本对东南亚投资同比增加4成，达3800亿日元；7～8月直接投资金额也达1800亿日元，超过对华投资的1500亿日元。日本对东南亚地区的投资已由最初的加工制造业扩大到汽车制造业和商业、餐饮业，投资国家集中在印尼、越南、泰国和菲律宾。

Japan's finance ministry data display,2011 year,Japan in southeast Asia direct investment amount link increased 2.4 times,Up to 1.5 trillion yen,And direct investment in China is only 1 trillion yen,For continuous 2 years appear"The southeast Asia investment more than China"phenomenon.This year 4 ~ 6 months,Japan to southeast Asia investment year-on-year increase 4 into,Up to 380 billion yen;7 ~ 8 month direct investment amount is more than 180 billion yen,More than 150 billion yen investment in China.Japan to southeast Asia investment has already by the original processing manufacturing industry expanded to automotive industry and business/Catering industry,Investment countries concentrate in Indonesia/Vietnam/Thailand and the Philippines.

　　但由于东南亚各国存在政局动荡、劳资纠纷和贪污腐败等问题，主张制造业回归日本国内的声音也日渐强烈，所以部分日企还将高附加值产品转回国内生产。

But as a result of southeast Asian countries exist political unrest/Labor disputes and problems, such as corruption,Manufacturing industry in Japan that return to the sound of the increasingly strong,So part of the day enterprises will also high added value product return domestic production.

　　此外，日本还试图摆脱对中国稀土的依赖。日本政府和企业目前正加紧与马来西亚、哈萨克斯坦及北美各国合作确保稀土资源供给。

In addition,Japan also try to get rid of the dependence on rare earth in China.The Japanese government and enterprise at present is stepping up and Malaysia/Kazakhstan and north American countries can work together to ensure that rare earth resources supply.

　　但是，“去中国化”将是个漫长过程，且将耗费巨大成本。中国不仅是世界工厂，也已成为非常重要的市场。对日企经营者来说，中国依然是其最成熟的生产基地及最重要的市场之一，真正摆脱对中国经济的依赖，撤出中国市场在现阶段并不现实。

but,"To Chinese"Will be a long process,And will take huge cost.China is not only the workshop of the world,Also has become a very important market.To Japanese companies for operators,China is still the most mature production base and one of the most important markets,True to get rid of the dependence of China's economy,Out of the Chinese market at present is not reality.

　　

人民币国际化进程评论 RMB internationalization process review

　　人民币兑美元汇率重拾升势，但再回单边升值轨道可能性较小。

The us dollar to regain uptrend,But come back to unilateral rise less likely to orbit.

　　9月中旬以来，人民币兑美元汇率明显走强，连续突破多个重要关口，一扫前期贬值“阴霾”。9月份金融机构外汇占款也新增1306.8亿元，创8个月来新高。人民币兑美元汇率之所以重拾升势，可从中美两方面进行分析：

Since mid-september,The us dollar exchange rate obviously going strong,Continuous breakthrough more important passes,A devaluation of the sweep"haze".September financial institutions funding of foreign exchange also increased by 130.68 billion yuan,Gen 8 months to new highs.The dollar is to regain uptrend,From the two aspects to carry on the analysis:

　　中国方面，首先，此前人民币贬值主要基于对出口、经济增长乏力的担忧，现在这种担忧正在减轻。目前，中国经济正筑底企稳，尤其9月份出口数据远超预期；其次，外贸企业前期结汇意愿较弱，积累了大量美元头寸，随着年末临近，人民币结算需求增强，结汇意愿也出现季节性回升，表现为9月份外币存款首次在年内出现净减少；第三，内地拟放宽QFII资金出入限制，短期利好人民币升值。

China,First of all,After the devaluation of RMB mainly based on export/Economic growth concerns about lack of power,Now this worries are easing.At present,China's economy is built bottom stabilises,Especially in September export data much more than expected;secondly,Foreign trade enterprise early settlement of exchange intend to weaker,Accumulated a large number of dollars position,With the end of the year is near,RMB settlement demand increase,Foreign exchange settlement will also appear seasonal rebound,For the performance of the September foreign currency deposit for the first time in years appeared net reduce;The third,The mainland quasi relaxing QFII funds access restrictions,Short term bullish the appreciation of the renminbi.

　　美国方面，一是美国总统大选依然揪住人民币汇率问题不放，罗姆尼数次强调自己的对华政策将非常强硬，上任第一天就会宣布中国为“汇率操纵国”，指责中国多年来不遵守贸易规则，通过操纵货币取得出口优势。虽然此种说法仅为“空头支票”，但仍给人民币带来颇大压力；二是美联储将美元利率维持于低位，并于9月推出QE3，加之美国经济数据改善，露出复苏迹象，资金开始流向新兴市场。

The United States,One is the American presidential election still hold the RMB exchange rate not to put,Mr Romney several emphasized his China policy will be very tough,The first day of term will be announced for China"Currency manipulator",Accuse China of for many years do not abide by the trade rules,Through the acquisition of export advantage of manipulating its currency.Although this kind of view is only"bounced",But still to bring the quite big pressure;The second is the federal reserve will us rates in low,And in September QE3 launch,The United States and improving economic data,Show signs of recovery,Capital began to flow to the emerging market.

　　对中国来说，人民币升值可降低进口原材料和工业技术的成本，并可抗衡欧美量化宽松带来的货币流入压力。但是，人民币升值将对出口产生不利影响，并对香港联系汇率制度产生较大冲击。

For the Chinese,The appreciation of the renminbi can reduce imports of raw materials and the cost of industrial technology,And can bring against Europe and the quantitative easing monetary inflow pressure.but,The appreciation of the renminbi will produce unfavorable effects on exports,And the linked exchange rate system in Hong Kong has greater impact.

　　不过，近期人民币兑美元汇率走强并不意味着新一轮单边升值周期的启动。

but,Recently the dollar go strong does not mean that a new round of unilateral appreciation cycle start.

　　从短期看，首先，尽管即期市场人民币汇率出现新高，但远期市场人民币贬值预期并未消除；其次，经历近期涨势后，逢低买进美元者认为美元价位已非常低，将限制人民币进一步涨势；第三，近期人民币汇率强势很大程度上拜美国大选所赐，一旦大选尘埃落定，此种外部因素将自动消除；第四，面对经济增长放缓的基本面，中国货币政策放松仍是大方向。虽然9月份贸易顺差保持高位，但欧、美这两个中国最大的出口市场尚未显著反弹，外需不确定性依然较高。

In the short run,First of all,Although spot market RMB exchange rate appears high,But the forward market did not eliminate the devaluation of RMB is expected;secondly,Experience after recent gains,Bargain buy dollars who think the dollar price already very low,Will limit the further gains;The third,The recent strong RMB exchange rate to a large extent worship the U.S. presidential election has given,Once the dust settles the election,These external factors will be eliminate;The fourth,In the face of economic growth fundamentals,China's monetary policy is still relaxing way.Although September trade surplus remain high,But the/Beauty the two China's largest export market has not yet significant rebound,Overseas market demand uncertainty still higher.

　　从中长期看，过去数年来人民币升值的基础条件已发生明显变化。首先，受全球金融危机影响，未来较长一段时间内西方国家内需都难以恢复；其次，中国潜在经济增长率下行、资本长期回报率下降的压力越来越大，决定了未来人民币的升值压力将大幅减轻。

From the long run,In the past several years the appreciation of the renminbi's basic condition has altered obviously.First of all,By the global financial crisis,The future for a long period of time in western countries domestic demand can restore;secondly,China's potential economic growth rate down/Capital long-term rate of return drop pressure is more and more big,Determines the future appreciation of the yuan would greatly reduce the pressure.

　　但是，由于中国仍有政策操作空间，经济增速应能维持在7%以上，外汇储备充裕，能够抵御外部冲击，加之欧美仍在不断采取宽松政策，人民币汇率将不会出现持续、大幅贬值，未来双向波动特征将更为明显。

but,Because China is still a policy operation space,Economic growth should be able to maintain in more than 7%,Foreign exchange reserves abundance,Can withstand external shocks,Together with Europe and the United States continues to take loose policy,The exchange rate for the renminbi will not be sustained/The substantial depreciation of,The future two-way fluctuation characteristics will be more obvious.

　　在证监会大力推动下，QFII再获较大进展。

In the securities regulatory commission under a major boost,QFII recapture the great progress.

　　首先，获QFII资格机构数量再创新高。证监会数据显示，9月份共7家机构获QFII资格，至此今年共53家机构获QFII资格，自2003年开放QFII业务以来，共188家机构获准入场。

First of all,The QFII institution qualification number hit a record high.Securities regulatory commission data show,September 7 agencies were the QFII qualification,So far this year 53 agencies were the QFII qualification,Since 2003 since the QFII open business,A total of 188 agencies allowed to admission.

　　其次，QFII海外推介会反响热烈。为吸引更多境外长期资金入市，9月份以来，沪深交易所、中国金融期货交易所及多家大型基金开展全球路演，向境外机构投资者介绍中国经济和资本市场及QFII制度的发展情况，鼓励更多境外长期资金投资国内资本市场，反响热烈，境外投资者普遍表现出较强投资意愿，认为虽然中国经济出现增长放缓趋势，但看好中国经济的长期增长潜力。初步统计显示，仅欧美地区就有32家机构拟申请或增加投资，总额度约111亿美元。

secondly,QFII overseas seminar a warm response.To attract more overseas long-term capital entering the market,Since September,Shanghai and shenzhen exchange/China financial futures exchange and many large-scale fund will carry out the global road shows,Foreign institutional investors to introduce China's economy and the capital market and the development of the QFII system,Encourage more foreign long-term capital investment domestic capital market,Repercussions warm,Foreign investors generally show strong willingness to investment,Think that although the Chinese economic growth slowdown trend,But China's economy has long-term growth potential.Preliminary statistics show that,Only in Europe and the United States have 32 agencies to apply or increase investment,ZongEDu about $11.1 billion.

　　此外，证监会或将推出一项针对QFII境内投资收益的税收政策，对QFII境内投资收益征收10%的所得税。此举是A股发展为成熟资本市场应该具备的条件，将大大提高QFII机制的透明度，增强可预见性，从而扫除困扰境外机构大规模投资A股的一项重大制度障碍。

In addition,Securities regulatory commission or it will launch a QFII for domestic investment income tax policy,QFII to domestic investment income collection of 10% of the income tax.The move is A share development as the mature capital market should have the condition,Will greatly improve the transparency of QFII mechanism,Enhance predictability,Thus eliminate trouble overseas institutions invest A large A major system obstacles.