本报记者 曾会生

Our reporter CengHuiSheng

　　为缓解财政悬崖问题和刺激复苏经济，美国推出第四轮量化宽松（QE4）。

In order to alleviate the financial cliff and stimulate economic recovery,The United States launched the first round quantitative easing(QE4).

　　12月12日，美联储发表声明称，在2012年12月延长债券期限项目到期后开始采购较长期国债，初步额度为每个月约450亿美元。同时，第三轮量化宽松继续每月400亿美元购买机构抵押贷款支持证券（MBS）。预计美联储每月通过量化宽松向市场放水达850亿元。

On December 12,,The fed issued a statement that said,In the December 2012 extended bond period after the end of the project began to purchase a long-term national debt,Preliminary quota for about $45 billion per month.At the same time,The third round of quantitative easing continue to $40 billion a month to buy mortgage-backed securities institutions(MBS).The fed is expected to monthly through the quantitative easing to market drain reached 85 billion yuan.

　　对于美债第一债权国中国来说，美联储持续量化宽松，加大和加速放水，会对中国的外汇储备产生怎样的影响？近期走势强劲的人民币汇率会不会被QE4进一步推升？

For beauty debt first creditor country for China,The federal reserve for quantitative easing,Increase and accelerating drain,China's foreign exchange reserves to what effect?The recent trend of strong RMB exchange rate will be QE4 push further?

不必放大对外储的影响 Don't need to enlarge the influence of foreign store

　　美国QE4再度大放水，加剧市场流动性泛滥，或许最让人担心的是中国持有大把的美债资产可能面临缩水。

The United States QE4 again big drain,Intensifying market liquidity flood,Perhaps the most worrying thing is China has a lot of beautiful debt assets may face shrink.

　　截至今年9月末，中国外汇储备高达3.29万亿美元。尽管中国外汇管理当局在不断调整外汇储备的结构和总量，中国仍然是美债第一大债权国。据美国财政部数据，9月份中国增持3亿美元美债，持有美债余额为1.155万亿美元。

So far this year and the end of the month,China's foreign currency reserves as much as $3.29 trillion.Although China's foreign exchange management authorities in constantly adjust the structure of the foreign exchange reserves and the total amount,China is still beautiful debt first big creditor nation.According to the American ministry of finance data,September around China $300 million American debt,Hold beauty debt balance for 1.155 trillion dollars.

　　接受中国经济时报记者采访的专家几无例外地表示，购买美债是没有最佳选项时的次优选择或者是最不坏的选择。

Accept China economic times reporter interviews of experts several unlimitedly said,Buy the debt is not the best option of subprime choice or is the least bad option.

　　“QE4对市场的影响不会像大家想象的那么大，消息已经被消化了。因为到年底OT（扭曲操作）到期之后，美国一定会用QE4来替代OT。但给市场对美国经济的乐观预期泼了一盆冷水。”中信银行(601998,股吧)国际金融市场专家刘维明在接受中国经济时报记者采访时表示，对中国外储影响不会太大。美国推出QE4不一定会造成美元贬值，因为美国国内同样面临信贷需求不足，货币乘数很低的问题，美国的通胀也不会因此大幅上涨。美元对一揽子货币不贬值的话，中国的美债资产就不会缩水。

"QE4 what influence it has on the market will not like you imagine so big,The news has been melted.To the end of the year because OT(Distortion operation)After due,The United States will use QE4 instead of OT.But to the market in the us economy is expected to optimistic pours cold water."Citic bank(601998,guba)The international financial market LiuWeiMing experts in accept China's economic times reporter to interview said,The influence of China store will not be too big.The United States launched QE4 not necessarily will cause the dollar,Because the United States also have the credit demand,Monetary multiplier is very low,The inflation will not therefore rise considerably.The us dollar to package the currency's decline has not,China's beauty debt assets will not shrink.

　　“QE4对中国的外储会有间接影响，但是阶段性的影响，不必放大。”国际金融问题专家赵庆明则对本报记者分析，历史上看，美元一直是贬值的，但美元不会因为QE4突然贬值。

"QE4 outside of China store will have indirect effects,But the influence of the stage,Don't need to enlarge."International financial experts to our reporter ZhaoQingMing is analyzed,historically,Is the weaker dollar has been,But the dollar won't because QE4 sudden devaluation.

人民币未必因此强劲升值 RMB appreciation may not so strong

　　自美国推出QE3以来，每月向市场投放400亿美元资金，受此影响，多数新兴市场国家货币汇率强势上涨。香港金管局屡屡抛出港币干预汇市，抑制港元升值，维持联系汇率制。

From the United States since the launch QE3,Monthly to market $40 billion capital,Affected by this,Most emerging market countries currency strong rise.Hong Kong the hkma out repeatedly hk intervention,Inhibition appreciation of hk $,Maintain contact exchange rate system.

　　今年8月份以来，人民币一改此前的贬值预期，强劲走升。11月份人民币对美元中间价创下今年5月以来的新高，人民币对美元即期汇率在11月份的22个交易日就有20天触及涨停。

Since August this year,The change had expected depreciation,Strong went up.November among the RMB against the us dollar price hit a record high since may of this year,The spot exchange rate of the RMB against the us dollar in the November 22 trading day have twenty days touch harden.

　　QE4推出后，美联储量化宽松的投放力度加大一倍以上。同样大家担心会有更多的美元流入到新兴市场，加剧本币升值。原本已经强劲的人民币会否因此进一步升值？

QE4 after launch,The fed quantitative easing put efforts to strengthen a times above.Also we worry that there will be more and more dollars into the emerging market,Aggravate a stronger currency.Originally has strong renminbi will be no further appreciation?

　　在刘维明看来，QE4对人民币汇率也不会造成很大影响。“QE4不会有之前量化宽松那么大的溢出效应，不会立竿见影，而且中国存在资本管制的情况下，即使有资本流入，数量也不会很大。”

In LiuWeiMing seems,QE4 RMB exchange rate to also won't be caused a great influence."QE4 won't have before quantitative easing so big of spillover effect,Not immediate,And China exist under the condition of capital controls,Even with capital inflow,The number is not very large."

　　他告诉记者，人民币汇率主要还是受国内经济和国际收支影响，比如贸易顺差和FDI。赵庆明表示，贸易顺差是决定汇率走向的最基本因素，一方面直接对市场预期产生影响，另一方面会改变外汇市场供求状况。

He told reporters,The RMB exchange rate is mainly by the domestic economy and international balance of payments effects,Such as trade surplus and FDI.ZhaoQingMing said,The trade surplus is decided to exchange rate to the most basic factors,On the one hand directly on the market is expected to impact,On the other hand will change foreign exchange market supply and demand.

　　国家信息中心经济预测部主任范剑平同样认为，市场对于QE1和QE4的反应不同，包括黄金、汇率以及国债在内的市场都已经对美联储的行动麻木了。

The state information center economic forecasts director FanJianPing also think,The market for QE1 and QE4 react differently,Including gold/Exchange rates as well as government bonds, the market has to the fed's action was asleep.

　　赵庆明对本报记者分析，QE4从逻辑上是利空美元的，如果美元贬值的话，不排除会推动人民币升值。但他强调，逻辑上是这样，但美元未必会下跌，就像QE3之后，美元指数并没有下跌，反而还上涨了。

ZhaoQingMing analysis to our reporter,QE4 logic is bad dollar,If the dollar words,They would not rule out to promote the appreciation of the renminbi.But he stressed that,Logic is such,But the dollar may not fall,As QE3 after,The dollar index and not fall,But also rose.