明年全球的货币政策目前来看依然具有不确定性，但就当前情况来分析，在全球经济增速放缓的大背景下，美国“财政悬崖”和欧洲主权债务危机所造成的负面影响仍未消散，主要经济体的经济前景令人担忧，明年各国更偏好的经济刺激方法依然是放宽货币政策。

"Next year, global monetary policy so far still is uncertain,But the current situation to analysis,In the global economic slowdown in the background,The United States"Fiscal cliff"And the European sovereign debt crisis caused by the negative effect is still not dissipate,Major economies of the economic outlook is worrying,Next year countries prefer to economic stimulus method is still easing monetary policy.

　　放宽货币政策会压低借贷成本，推升股市、房地产等资产价格，刺激民间消费与企业投资，从而提振就业市场，在短期内比较有效；但从长远来看，这只是打了一剂强心针，却难以根治经济疲软。而宽松政策所导致的印钞行为，加大了各国货币继续贬值的可能性，也加大了市场对于未来通胀加剧的担忧。美国前三轮量化宽松政策不仅未对就业和消费起到明显的提振作用，相反却加重了全球流动性泛滥的程度，特别是部分新兴市场国家无疑会受到美元泛滥的冲击，导致本币升值、出口走弱，加剧资产价格上涨压力。

Easing monetary policy will lower borrowing costs,Retail market/Real estate and other asset prices,Stimulate private consumption and investment,So as to boost employment market,In the short term is more effective;But in the long run,It's just played a stress-relieving,But difficult to effect a radical cure economic weakness.And loose policy in print chao behavior,Increase the currencies continue to depreciate against the possibility of,Increase the market for future inflation concerns.The former three quantitative easing policy on employment and consumption not only not has an obvious lift up with,But instead of increased global liquidity flooding degree,In particular, a number of emerging market countries will undoubtedly $by the impact of the flood,Lead to allow its currency to appreciate/Weaker export,Asset prices increased pressure.

　　从目前的数据以及政策预期来分析，2013年的通胀水平还不会有过大的波动，但是各国政府在出台宽松的货币政策时也要非常谨慎，避免通胀加深对经济的困扰。预计明年一季度开始许多国家的CPI指数会较今年第四季度有所上升，但随后会有所下降。纵观2013年全年通胀水平仍在可控范围内，并未失控。（张枕河）

From the current data and policy expected to analysis,2013 years of inflation also won't have too big wave,But governments in come loose monetary policy also have to be very careful,Avoid inflation increasing the economic problems.Next year is expected to start in the first quarter of a lot of countries CPI index is the fourth quarter of the year will be increased,But then will be declined.In year 2013, inflation is still in the controllable range,Did not out of control.(A pillow river)