康子冉

KangZi Ran

　　“未来半年通货膨胀水平将呈现反弹趋势，因此通过货币政策保增长的效果和动机面临着两难，如此说来降息窗口已经关闭，未来应将政策刺激方式转移到财政政策轨道上来。”这是韩国投资银行未来资产（Mirae Asset）昨日发布报告对中国货币政策提出的观察。

“The next six months will present the inflation trend rebound，So through the effect of the monetary policy growth and motive facing dilemma，So cut window has been closed，The future policy stimulus should be a way to transfer to the fiscal policy track。”This is South Korea investment bank assets in the future（Mirae Asset）In a report released yesterday of China's currency policy is put forward observations。

　　央行近日公布《2012年第二季度货币政策执行报告》也称，受到基数降低等影响，8月份后CPI涨势有可能出现一定回升，目前看回升力度不会太大。

The central bank has released《2012 the second quarter monetary policy implementation report》Also said，Decreased base by the impact，August CPI gains after a possible must pick up，Now see picks up strength is not too large。

　　早在今年1月份，未来资产就已预计2012年的通货膨胀形势将呈V字形，底部会出现在7月份。未来资产预期中国7月CPI同比涨幅将跌至1.7%，此后半年将呈现反弹趋势，全年CPI在3%～3.5%左右。

Early in January this year，The future is already expect 2012 asset inflation situation would be a v-shape，The bottom will appear in July。The future assets expected China July year-on-year increase CPI to fall to 1.7%，After half a year will present trend rebound，Whole year the CPI in 3% ~ 3.5%。

　　物价有望探底回升 Prices are expected to rise the agent

　　近日，商务部等部委检测数据显示，食品价格特别是蔬菜价格近期再次反弹，猪肉价格过去40天持续上涨，而食用油价格也由于几大主要供应商联合施压，面临向上调整的压力，目前，只有鱼肉价格因为季节性因素呈现下行态势。

recently，The ministry of commerce and testing data shows ministries，Food prices especially vegetable prices recent rebound again，Pork prices over the past 40 days continue to rise，And cooking oil prices also because of several major suppliers joint pressure，Facing the adjusted upward pressure，At present，Only fish price because of seasonal factors present descending trend。

　　交通银行(601328,股吧)首席经济学家连平指出，从物价来看，现在是逐步在走低，但是见底以后回升已经为期不远，而货币政策尤其是利率政策并不是静态的，而是与CPI增量呈现一种互动态势，CPI增速下降为货币政策提供操作空间，但当下货币政策操作必将推高未来的CPI增长。

Traffic bank(601328,Shares it)Chief economist even flat said，From the price to see，Now is gradually in lower，But see bottom has rebounded after is imminent，And monetary policy interest rate policy, especially is not that of the static，But with CPI incremental present a kind of interactive situation，CPI growth reduced to monetary policy provide the operating space，But the monetary policy will push up the CPI growth in the future。

　　“反弹的部分原因是因为基数较低，同时最近台风和洪水造成中国国内供给方面的冲击以及国际粮食价格的上涨和大宗商品价格的上涨将共同对中国国内物价形成压力，这意味着货币政策放松的窗口正在越来越近。”未来资产报告称。

“Part of the reason is because rebound a low base，And recent floods and a typhoon China domestic supply of impact and international food prices and commodity prices will jointly to China's domestic price formation pressure，This means that the monetary policy of the window is more and more closer to relax。”The future assets report said。

　　未来资产报告指出，今年由于洪水和台风的压力，引起了中国国内供给方面的紧张，导致今年7月份的蔬菜和果品价格剧烈上升。由于供给能力需要三到六个月才能得到恢复，所以预期价格在未来几个月将持续上涨，这必将推动核心CPI在下半年进入一个更高水平区间。

The report points out that future assets，This year, because the pressure of the flood and typhoon，Cause the Chinese domestic supply of nervous，In July this year the vegetables and fruit price sharp increase。Due to supply capacity take three to six months to recover，So the expected price in the next few months will continue to rise，This will push in the second half of the core CPI reading into a higher level interval。

　　货币政策操作空间有限？ Monetary policy space is limited？

　　未来资产的报告还指出，由于下半年整体物价水平呈现上行趋势，因此降息等货币政策手段不应该成为央行的选择。

The report also points out the future assets，The second overall price level present upward trend，So cut interest rates, monetary policy should not be a means of the bank of choice。

　　据悉，不考虑最近两次央行的降息举动，2000年以来，中国只在两个时期采取过降息的政策，一个是本世纪初互联网科技泡沫破灭后冲击辐射到中国后，另一个是2008年金融危机之后。

It is reported，Don't consider two central bank cut interest rates of the recent move，Since 2000，China in just two period have taken interest policy，One is at the beginning of this century the Internet after the tech bubble burst radiation to China after the impact，The other is a 2008 years after the financial crisis。

　　未来资产指出，在这两个时期内，核心通胀率都处于下行周期，也就是说，自从2000年以来，中国政府在CPI反弹的时候，从未采用过降息的政策。

The future assets points out that，In these two period，Core inflation in descending cycle，That is，Since 2000，The Chinese government in the CPI rebounds，The policy of never cut interest rates。

　　“将此经验适用于当前形势，我们看到8月份是央行可能采取行动的唯一时间窗口，因为这个时点是在政府看到核心CPI增速反转上升之前。” 未来资产报告称。

“Will this experience applies to the current situation，We see in August is the central bank may take action. The only time window，For the moment was in the government see the core CPI growth surged before reversal。” The future assets report said。

　　报告认为，随着年底CPI反弹至预测3%～3.5%水平，这将再次推动真实利率进入一个负利率区间，同时，单方面降息将加大资本外流的压力，这将使央行采取进一步的降息政策更为艰难。

Report says，With CPI rally to predict the end of 3% ~ 3.5% level，This will push again real interest rates into a supportive interval，At the same time，Unilateral cut interest rates will increase capital outflows of pressure，This will make the central bank to take further rate cut policy more difficult。

　　不过，国泰君安高级经济学家林采宜认为，货币政策下半年仍有操作空间，如果CPI增长不超过3%的话，降息仍将存在空间。通过降息，能够缓解地方债务和国企债务，这是中国目前存在比较重要的隐忧。

but，Cathay Pacific hand to senior economist for appropriate in that，The second half of monetary policy are still operating space，If the CPI growth of no more than 3% of words，Rate cuts will still exist space。Through the rate cut，Can alleviate place debt and debt state-owned enterprises，This is China's existing more important malaises。

　　对于单方面降息形成资本外流压力的担忧，林采宜表示，目前世界上只有俄罗斯、巴西和中国利率最高，在此形势下即便中国央行采取单方面降息的政策，资本也不存在外流的条件。

For unilateral formation pressure to cut interest rates on capital outflows to worry about，Lin said in appropriate，Currently the world, only to Russia、Brazil and China's highest rate，In this situation even if China's central bank cut interest rates take unilateral policies，There is no capital of the outflow of conditions。

　　“另外，资本外流主要不是受到利率影响，而是对人民币汇率贬值的预期，随着美国经济的复苏进程出现，未来即便出现资本外流也是投资者看好美元升值的中长期趋势，而非利差因素起到最主要作用。”林采宜说。

“In addition，Capital outflows by interest rate is not，But of the value of the RMB exchange rate expectations，As the U.S. economic recovery process appears，The future even if occurrence capital outflows and investors spot of the value of the dollar and medium-term trends，Rather than spread the main factor plays the role。”Lin said in appropriate。

　　林采宜认为，即便出现负利率，也是一个比较常见的现象，一般的负利率水平，市场是可以忍受的。

Lin is in that，Even if occurrence firmly negative，Also is a relatively common phenomenon，Generally supportive of the level，The market is can tolerate。

　　昨日，央行旗下的《金融时报》也发表评论员文章，指出中国需要根据经济运行态势及时果断地进行调控，防止经济增速滑出预定目标区间。

yesterday，The central bank's《Financial times》Also the article published commentators，Points out that China needs according to the situation of economic operation timely decisively to control，To prevent the economy from increased speed skating out a target range。

　　文章指出，总体看，未来货币政策预调微调的客观需要依然存在，而近几个月来通胀水平的加速回落，也为货币政策操作提供了更大空间。人行要继续发挥公开市场操作业务和存款准备金率对抚平流动性方面的作用。

The paper points out that，Overall see，The future monetary policy presetters fine-tuning the objective need still exists，And in recent months the level of inflation accelerated fall back，Also for monetary policy provides more large space。Pedestrian to continue to play the open market operation business and deposit reserve rate to ease the liquidity roles。

　　但林采宜认为，即便下一阶段货币政策存在调整空间，但相对于降息，降准才是大概率事件和必要措施。

But Lin adopt appropriate think，Even if the next phase monetary policy adjustment space there，But compared to cut interest rates，Drop must is the probability events and the necessary measures。

　　“因为上半年我国经常项目顺差大幅减少，资本项下已经出现逆差，说明最近国内资金呈现外流趋势，但是规模不算很大。”林采宜说，“从外管部门公布的数字来看，今年外汇占款大规模下降已成必然，那么央行必将通过降准的政策对冲货币供应量，降准的预期可能更确定一些。”

“Because the country a current account surplus is greatly reduced，Under a capital has been deficit，Recent domestic capital outflow that present trend，But scale is not large。”Lin said in appropriate，“From the tube department figures and see，This year the gap large-scale foreign exchange has become an inevitable decline，So the central bank will through the policy must drop hedge money supply，Drop the standard of set some expected more。”

　　防衰退更需财政政策 The recession also needs to fiscal policy

　　未来资产报告认为，考虑到脆弱的货币政策传导机制，单独降低利率将对实体需求的刺激极为有限，因此现在是时候将保增长的手段转化到财政政策上来。

The future assets that report，Considering the fragile monetary policy transmission mechanism，Lower interest rates on the entity will separate the demand of the stimulus was too limited，So now it is time to bring the growth means into a fiscal policy to come up。

　　国务院发展研究中心金融所综合研究室主任陈道富认为，下半年需要的不是一个简单的财政政策，而是促进中国供给面的、提高供给面效率的财政政策，包括减税等，要创造有利于供给面的改革的财政政策能够发挥更大作用的环境。

The state council development research center, the director of research ChenDaoFu comprehensive financial think，The second half of need is not a simple fiscal policy，But promote the Chinese supply、Improve the efficiency of the supply side fiscal policy，Including tax cuts, etc，To create the reform to supply the fiscal policy can play a bigger role environment。

　　对此，林采宜指出，投资、减税是比较有效的财政刺激方式。

this，Lin is pointed out that in，investment、Tax cuts is effective way of fiscal stimulus。

　　“下半年一条路就是投资，今年上半年基本上就是这么走的，通过财政部的报表（可以发现），上半年地方财政支出增长了24%，中央政府增长了9%，这里面的大部分都是基础投资。”林采宜说，“这说明中国政府又在通过投资来刺激经济了，大约4.5万亿的开支，现在政府的主要药方还是通过投资来拉动。”

“The second half of a road is an investment，In the first half of this year is basically that way，Through the Treasury's statement（Can be found），Local financial expenditure growth during the first half of 24%，The central government increased by 9%，Here is the most basic investment。”Lin said in appropriate，“This shows that the Chinese government and in through the investments to stimulate the economy，About 4.5 trillion spending，Now the government's main prescription or through the investment to pull。”

　　另一方面，林采宜认为上半年财政税收收入增加了12%，说明减税的空间还是很大的，减税对于经济来讲是一个比较温和的调节方式。

On the other hand，Lin in the first half of that by appropriate financial tax revenue increased 12%，Tax cuts that the space is very big still，Tax cuts for economic speaking is a mild regulating mode。