1.外汇市场美弱欧强，日元持续大幅贬值。

1. The foreign exchange market beauty weak strong Europe,Continued yen depreciated.

　　11月至12月中下旬，由于欧债风险缓解且美联储推出QE4，全球外汇市场主要呈现出以下四大趋势：

In late November to December,Due to the debt risk mitigation and the federal reserve QE4 launch,Global foreign exchange market mainly presents the following four big trend:

　　一是美元汇率震荡小幅贬值。受QE4预期逐渐增强影响，11月下旬美元指数从81点开始小幅震荡贬值，随着12月12日美联储正式推出QE4，美元指数在79点附近震荡。截至12月19日，美元指数收于79.264，较11月初下挫0.98%。

A dollar devaluation is a shock.QE4 expected by increasing influence,Late November the dollar index from 81 PM small shock devaluation,Along with the December 12, the federal reserve QE4 officially launched,The dollar index in near 79 concussion.By December 19,,The dollar index closed at 79.264,A 0.98% decline in early November.

　　二是欧元对美元持续震荡升值。随着欧债短期风险进一步缓解，推动欧元对美元汇率持续震荡升值，再加上美元在QE4推动下尽显弱势，致使欧元突破1.30阻力位，创下2012年4月以来的新高。截至12月19日，欧元对美元汇率收于1.3248，较10月初升值2.36％。

The second is the euro against the dollar remain volatile appreciation.With the short-term debt risk further easing,Push in the euro/dollar exchange rate appreciation for shock,Plus dollars in QE4 driven all show the weak,The euro breakthrough 1.30 resistance level,Since April 2012 hit a record high.By December 19,,The euro against the dollar closed at 1.3248,Is early October to rise by 2.36%.

　　三是日元继续持续大幅贬值趋势。日本央行从9月份以来采取了量化宽松货币政策，并多次干预货币市场打压日元，日元出现持续大幅贬值。截至12月19日，日元对美元汇率收于84.298，较11月初贬值5.21％。

The third is the substantial depreciation of the yen continues to continue the trend.The bank of Japan since from September to the quantitative easing monetary policy,And many times the money market intervention that yen,The yen depreciated sustained.By December 19,,The yen against the dollar closed at 84.298,A devaluation 5.21% early November.

　　四是全球跨境资金倾向于流向高息的新兴市场货币，推动新兴市场货币汇率出现不同程度的升值。截至12月19日，俄罗斯卢布对美元汇率较11月初升值2.8％，印度卢比和巴西雷亚尔对美元汇率则较11月初基本持平。

Four is the cross-border capital tend to flow to the tight of emerging market currencies,Promote the emerging market currencies appear different degree of appreciation.By December 19,,The Russian ruble exchange rate for the dollar is early November to rise by 2.8%,The rupee and Brazilian real exchange rate for the dollar is early November flat.

　　展望2013年，我们认为美元仍将可能先抑后扬，整体呈现小幅升值趋势。就短期走势而言，美国“财政悬崖”问题将可能推动美元在年初震荡贬值。同时，欧元和新兴市场货币可能震荡走高，市场将继续做空日元，致使日元对美元持续贬值。

In 2013,We think the dollar will still may first after suppression Yang,On the whole, the modest rise trend.As for short-term alone,The United States"Fiscal cliff"Problems may promote the dollars at the beginning of concussion devaluation.At the same time,The euro and emerging market currencies may shock go high,Market will continue to make empty the yen,The yen against the dollar falling dollar.

　　就中期趋势而言，2013年内美元将可能趋于震荡升值：首先，从经济基本面看，美国经济增长前景较欧元区、日本等发达国家更为光明，有助于推动美元震荡走强；其次，从金融风险看，欧债危机在2013年仍将可能出现短期恶化，推高市场避险情绪，资金仍可能倾向于从欧元流向美元；最后，从货币政策看，由于欧洲经济可能陷入衰退，欧洲央行在2013年降息的可能性较大，而美国与欧洲、日本之间在量化宽松程度方面出现的分化将可能进一步推动美元震荡升值。

Just in the medium term trend,$2013 years will be concussion tends to rise:First of all,From the economic fundamentals look,The American economy is the eurozone growth prospects/Japan and other developed countries more light,Help to promote a stronger dollar concussion;secondly,From the financial risk to see,The debt crisis in 2013 will likely worsen short-term,Push the high market hedge mood,Money could still tend to flow from the euro dollar;finally,See from monetary policy,Since the European economy could fall into recession,The European central bank to cut interest rates in 2013 more likely,While the us and Europe/Japan in quantitative easing degree between the areas of differentiation may further dollar concussion appreciation.

　　在此背景下，欧元汇率将可能在低位宽幅震荡；日元或将在持续大幅贬值后出现回调，但整体仍保持贬值趋势；新兴市场经济体货币可能随着经济的不断复苏开始触底弱势反弹。

In this context,The euro in wide range will be low;The yen or will be in the substantial depreciation of continuous appears after the callback,But the whole remain depreciation trend;Emerging market economies monetary may along with economic constant recovery began to sole the weak rebound.

　　2.全球股市震荡走高，未来或将延续上行。

2. The global stock market crash go high,The future or will continue upward.

　　11月以来，全球主要股市在对美国财政悬崖问题渐趋乐观、全球货币宽松浪潮涌动以及欧债形势持续缓和的氛围中震荡上行。截至12月18日，道琼斯工业指数、标普500指数和纳斯达克指数较11月初分别上涨1.9%、2.5%和2.6%。展望未来，美股震荡上行的概率较大。

Since November,Global stock markets in the United States financial cliff problems become optimistic/Global currency loose wave surging and European debt situation continued ease atmosphere concussion uplink.By December and,,The dow Jones industrial average/The s&p 500 and the nasdaq is early November rose 1.9%, respectively/2.5% and 2.6%.Looking to the future,The us stock shock ascending the probability of large.

　　欧洲股市在德国经济数据好于预期、希腊形势逐渐好转等因素推动下涨幅较大。截至12月18日，德国DAX30指数、法国CAC40指数和英国FTSE100指数较11月初分别上涨5.4%、6.4%和2.7%。展望后市，欧股的利好因素有以下三方面：首先，欧元区火车头德国经济有望触底企稳。其次，希腊利好不断。第三，欧盟终于就银行业统一监管问题达成一致，同意欧洲央行监管欧元区银行业。

European stock markets in the German economy data better than expected/The Greek situation improves gradually pushed by factors such as large increase.By December and,,Germany DAX30 index/The French CAC40 index and English FTSE100 index is early November rose 5.4%, respectively/6.4% and 2.7%.Which are,European stocks bullish factor has the following three aspects:First of all,The eurozone locomotive the German economy is expected to sole stabilises.secondly,Greek bullish constantly.The third,The European Union finally unified banking supervision in accord on the problem,Agree with the European central bank supervision eurozone banking.

　　与此同时，欧股仍面临三大利空因素：首先，欧元区经济增长自第二季度起已连续两个季度萎缩，第四季度经济仍难逃萎缩泥沼。其次，希腊、西班牙等重债国推行新的紧缩政策将激起民众更为强烈的抵触情绪。第三，欧元区银行业联盟虽有进展，但德法针对银行业单一监管机制的几项重大分歧仍未得到解决。总体来看，欧股或将延续上行趋势。

meanwhile,European shares still faces three big bad factors:First of all,The euro zone economic growth since the second quarter has been two consecutive quarters atrophy,The fourth quarter economic still not atrophy slough.secondly,Greece/Spain ChongZhaiGuo introduce a new deflation policy will arouse people more strong aversion.The third,The euro area banking union though it is progress,But for a single German banking supervision mechanism of several major differences remains unresolved.overall,European shares or will continue upward trend.

　　受日本央行自9月以来3次扩大资产购买规模以及日本政府拟推出经济振兴预算等利好的提振，日本股市涨势明显。截至12月18日，日经225指数较11月初上涨13.8%。展望未来，受益于日本政府和央行刺激经济的决心和力度不断强化，预计日本股市的上升动力可能较为充足。

By the bank of Japan since September 3 expand asset purchase scale and the Japanese government intends to launch economic revitalization of the budget of the positive boost,The Japanese stock market rise significantly.By December and,,The nikkei 225 index is up 13.8% in early November.Looking to the future,Benefit from the Japanese government and central bank economic stimulus determination and strength unceasingly strengthens,Japan's stock market is expected to rise power may be more enough.

　　受全球货币宽松等因素推动，新兴经济体股市震荡上扬，截至12月18日，巴西BOVESPA指数、印度孟买30指数和俄罗斯Micex指数较11月初分别上涨5.9%、4.6%和3.9%。展望未来，全球经济放缓、外需不足仍是新兴经济体股市面临的最大下行风险，盘整的概率较大。

By the global currency loose factors promote,Emerging economies' rising market volatility,By December and,,Brazil BOVESPA index/Mumbai, India and Russia Micex index 30 index is early November rose 5.9%, respectively/4.6% and 3.9%.Looking to the future,The global economic slowdown/Overseas market demand shortage is still emerging stock market of the biggest downside risks,Consolidation of the larger probability.

　　3.金价有望再次上行，油价难脱下行压力。

3. Gold is expected to be up again,Difficult to throw off the oil prices downward pressure.

　　近期大宗商品价格并未因美联储12月13日推出的QE4而受到提振，导致市场实际反应平淡的主要原因在于：其一，本次QE4的政策内容基本符合市场预期，已经提前在价格中体现；其二，美联储开始明确将宽松政策的执行与经济指标相挂钩，为市场提供了较为清晰的先行指标预期，促使市场反应更为理性；其三，美国财政悬崖谈判不确定性使得投资者普遍保持谨慎，同时年底将至也降低了投资者对利好的敏感度。

Recent commodity prices did not because the fed on December 13, launched by QE4 boost,Lead to actual market reaction is the main reason:one,This QE4 policy basic content in line with market expectations,The price has been reflected in advance;The second,The federal reserve started clear will loose the implementation of policy and economic indicators in hook,Provide the market with a more clear leading indicators expected,Make the market reaction is more rational;thirdly,The United States financial cliff negotiations uncertainty makes investors generally remain cautious,At the same time the end of the year to also reduces the investors to the sensitivity of the good.

　　截至12月21日，CRB指数、纽约黄金现货价格和WTI原油期货价格分别报收于294.13点、1657.22美元/盎司和88.54美元/桶，分别较11月初下跌1.0%、3.3%和上涨1.4%。

By December 21,,CRB index/New York gold spot price and futures price at WTI respectively at 294.13/Us $1657.22 / ounce and $88.54 / barrel,Were more early November fell 1.0%/Rose 1.4% and 3.3%.

　　展望明年1月，国际金价有望摆脱当前低迷走势，重新进入上升通道，在美国财政悬崖谈判往来交锋中或再次触及1800美元/盎司。

Looking January,The international price of gold is expected to get rid of the current downturn trend,Resume rising channel,In the United States financial cliff negotiation current exchange or again topping $1800 per ounce.

　　四季度以来，虽然中美经济数据喜讯不断，但依然无法对抗美国财政悬崖谈判不确定性及美国原油产量激增对油价形成的负面打击。展望未来，整体宏观形势将使油价面临下行压力，但不排除中东地缘危机突然激化导致油价短期走高的可能。综合判断，明年一季度国际油价将小幅震荡下行，波动区间为75-95美元/桶。

Since the fourth quarter,Although the economic data good news constantly,But still no match for the United States financial cliff negotiations uncertainty and U.S. crude oil production is soaring oil prices hit to the formation of the negative.Looking to the future,The whole macro situation will make oil prices face downward pressure,But not eliminate the Middle East geopolitical crisis suddenly become acute lead to higher oil prices short-term may.Synthetic judgment,In the first quarter of next year international oil price shocks will be slightly down,Fluctuation interval for 75 - us $95 / barrel.

　　4.欧债危机持续缓和，未来风险仍有多重。

(4) European debt crisis continued ease,The risk of future still have multiple.

　　2012年11月以来，由于欧洲银行业联盟初见成效、希腊局势逐渐好转、德国经济有望触底企稳等一系列利好，欧债危机延续缓和趋势，欧元区重债国的国债收益率均大幅下降。截至12月18日，希腊、葡萄牙、意大利和西班牙10年期国债收益率较11月初分别下降524.8、109.1、47.2、28.1个基点至12.51%、6.88%、4.44%和5.28%。

Since November 2012,Since the European banking union produced results/The Greek situation getting better/The German economy is expected to sole stabilises and a series of good,The debt crisis continue ease trend,The eurozone ChongZhaiGuo bond yields down significantly.By December and,,Greece/Portugal/Italy and Spain ten-year Treasury yield decreased respectively 524.8 is early November/109.1/47.2/28.1 basis points to 12.51%/6.88%/4.44% and 5.28%.

　　欧债风险出现持续缓和的主要原因是：

The debt risk for ease in the main reason is that:

　　首先，欧元区银行业联盟开始起步。12月12日，欧盟财长会议就建立银行业单一监管机制达成协议，同意由欧洲央行监管欧元区银行业。这是欧元区迈向金融业联盟的第一步。

First of all,The euro area banking union began to start.On December 12,,The European Union finance ministers' meeting is to establish a single banking supervision mechanism to reach an agreement,Agreed to by the European central bank supervision eurozone banking.This is the euro area financial industry towards the first step in the league.

　　其次，希腊利好频传。一是国际评级机构标准普尔将希腊的长期主权信用评级从“选择性违约”上调6级至代表前景稳定的“B－”级，此举既给投资者带来了信心，也给希腊政府谋取了更多的改革时间。二是欧洲央行重新开放为希腊银行提供廉价融资的通道，接受希腊主权债在该央行融资操作中作为担保品，大大改善了市场环境。

secondly,Greek bullish pouring in..One is the international credit rating agency standard &poor's Greek long-term sovereign credit rating from"Selective default"Raise level 6 to represent future stable"B -"level,The move is to bring the confidence of investors,Also to the government for more time to reform.The second is the European central bank to open for Greek Banks provide cheap financing channel,Accept the Greek sovereign debt financing operation in the central bank as collateral,Greatly improve the market environment.

　　第三，作为欧洲经济火车头的德国经济出现企稳迹象。近期IFO商业景气指数、ZEW经济景气指数、PMI数据均优于预期，景气指数好转显示德国经济界对未来经济增长前景较为乐观，而PMI数据虽然仍暗示德国经济可能在第四季度小幅萎缩，但很可能只是暂时走软。

The third,As a European economic locomotive German economy appeared signs of stabilising.Recent IFO business confidence/ZEW economic boom index/PMI data are better than expected,Boom index better display the German economic circles of future economic growth prospects more optimistic,And though still PMI data suggest that the German economy may shrink slightly in the fourth quarter,But it may be just a temporary weakness.

　　展望未来，欧债危机仍面临三重风险：

Looking to the future,The debt crisis still faces triple risk:

　　首先，法国有可能成为欧债的下一个风险点。一方面，法国经济面临结构性问题。国内失业率居高不下，贸易逆差加剧，国际竞争力逐渐丧失，劳动力、商品及服务市场发展停滞不前。另一方面，法国公共债务水平较高，对欧债危机风险敞口较大。国际清算银行数据显示，截至2011年年底，法国银行业仅在西班牙和意大利的风险敞口就高达5.6万亿欧元。在经济增长放缓和债务风险上升的双重压力下，法国不排除成为欧债危机继续蔓延的下一个目标。

First of all,French may be the debt next risk point.On the one hand,The French economy is facing structural problems.The domestic unemployment remains high,Trade deficit increased,The gradual loss of international competitiveness,labor/Goods and services market stagnation.On the other hand,French public debt level is higher,The subprime crisis to the larger risk exposure.The bank for international settlements data display,By the end of 2011,The French banking only in Spain and Italy's risk exposure is as high as 5.6 trillion euros ($).In the economic growth and rising debt risk under double pressures,The French would not rule out become the debt crisis continues to spread next target.

　　其次，意大利政局动荡可能加大欧债风险。意大利前总理蒙蒂宣布辞职引发了市场恐慌，投资者担忧这位技术型总理的离任将导致欧洲债务危机再度升级。无论谁接替意大利的总理职位，都将面对两大挑战：一是如何削减高达126%的公共债务对GDP的比重；二是黯淡的经济增长前景。意大利需坚持结构性改革，而这需要政治上的持久性。未来意大利能否继续沿着蒙蒂政府的改革路线前进将是市场关注的焦点。

secondly,Italian political unrest may increase the risk of debt.Italy's former prime minister announced his resignation briant caused the market panic,Investors worry the skilful prime minister's departure will lead to the European debt crisis upgrade again.No matter who take Italian prime minister's post,Will be faced with two major challenges:The first is how to cut up to 126% of public debt to GDP;The second is bleak economic growth prospects.Italy should insist on structural reform,And this requires political persistent.The future will continue to Italy along the route of the reform of the government briant forward will be the focus of the market.

　　第三，欧元区经济下行风险仍然很大。尽管某些数据略有反弹，但近期经济数据显示经济活动疲弱，今年四季度以及至少明年上半年可能都不会有大的改善。主要是由于欧元区的各个部门都在调整资产负债表，因此经济增长动力不足，而且全球经济增长放缓将继续抑制欧元区复苏的步伐。

The third,The eurozone economy downside risk is very big still.Although some data rebound slightly,But the recent economic data shows a weak economic activity,The fourth quarter of this year and at least the first half of next year may not have big improvement.In the euro area is mainly due to various departments in the adjustment of the balance sheet,So economic growth power shortage,And the global economic growth will continue to the pace of the eurozone recovery.

　　整体来看，2012年下半年以来，欧债危机有所缓解，金融市场状况有所改善，希腊、西班牙等欧元区重债国如能坚持财政紧缩措施，融资成本再度飙升的概率很小。但欧洲经济增长和财政紧缩两大问题尚未得到根本解决，未来更加稳健和均衡的复苏还有相当长的路要走。

The whole,Since the latter half of 2012,The debt crisis to ease,Financial market conditions improve,Greece/Spain ChongZhaiGuo eurozone if you can insist on fiscal austerity measures,Financing cost again soaring probability is very small.But the European economic growth and austerity two big problem has not been fundamentally solved,The more stable and balanced recovery is still a long way to go.