外论一瞥

The theory of glance

　　◎《卫报》1月2日社论

money[The guardian]On January 2, editorial

美国拒绝直面现实 The United States refused to face up to reality

　　美国财政悬崖问题拖到最后期限来面对，本身就表现出美国两党在这一问题上的分歧艰难弥合，也表明财政问题远未真正解决。人们本寄望于财政悬崖会让美国政治家重新审视公共债务，但实际结果并未出现探究赤字膨胀根本原因的“大妥协”，这些原因包括由过窄税基支撑的激增社会保障权利。目前的解决方案，只是在购买更多时间。这一交涉的具体内容揭示出其缺乏抱负。个人收入超过40万美元，所得税率从35%上升到39.6%，针对较低收入的减免和信贷被取消。假使美国有16万亿的债务负担，年预算赤字为1.1万亿美元。这一方案也没有给予财政危机足够的重视。

U.S. fiscal cliff problem till the deadline,Itself shows differences of the two parties in the United States the problem difficult to bridge,Also shows that financial problem is far from true solution.People the hope on the fiscal cliff will make American statesman to re-examine the public debt,But actual results did not appear to explore deficit causes inflation"Great compromise",These include the proliferation of supported by a narrow tax base of social security rights.The current solution,Just to buy more time.The representations of the specific content reveals its lack of ambition.Personal income of more than 400000 dollars,Income tax rate from 35% to 39.6%,In view of the low pay cuts and credit has been cancelled.If there are 16 trillion in the United States debt burden,In the budget deficit of $1.1 trillion.The plan also did not give enough attention to the financial crisis.

　　但即使如此，拙劣的修补因防止了重税和立即削减支出，毕竟也给予了市场某些安慰。新的两月限期也为敲定有关支出削减的协议所制定。这一切与欧元区主权债务危机的处理方式十分相似：当政治家拒绝做出痛苦但必需的决定时，最后期限就被赋予了无穷弹性。

But even so,Bad repair for prevent the tax cut spending and immediately,After all, also give the market some comfort.New two months at the same time also to finalize an agreement on the spending cuts are formulated.All this with the eurozone sovereign debt crisis is similar to the way of dealing with:When politicians refuse to make painful but necessary decisions,The deadline is endowed with an infinite elastic.

　　美国拒绝直面现实，已对欧元区造成了很大损害，但美国损失将更多。作为世界经济的动力，美国公共债务已接近国内生产总值的四分之三，官方数据表明这一数字有可能升至90%。许多经济学家相信，这一债务水平足以摧毁任何有希望的经济增长。

The United States refused to face up to reality,Has caused great damage to the eurozone,But the United States will be more losses.As a world economic power,The United States public debt is close to three-quarters of the gross domestic product (GDP),Official figures show that the figure could rise to 90%.Many economists believe that,This debt level enough to destroy any hope of economic growth.

　　继续维持政治僵局无疑将成为一场自杀。许多评论家认为，是体制导致了财政问题难以解决，但政治家在此应承担更多责任。美国互相敌视的两党分野，使得两党很难在国家利益面前携手合作，而奥巴马总统不止一次地更像是民主党领袖而非国家领导人。（贺艳燕 编译）

To maintain political deadlock will no doubt become a suicide.Many critics think,Is the system led to financial problems difficult to solve,But politicians should bear more responsibility here.Dividing line between two parties in the United States, hostile to each other,For both parties to cooperate before the interests of the state,Obama the President more than once, more like a democratic leader and non-state leaders.(HeYanYan compile)

　　◎《京都新闻》1月4日社论

money[Kyoto news]On January 4, editorial

世界新领导者 New world leader

　　应遏制相互猜忌的蔓延 Should contain the spread of the mutual suspicion

　　在全球化和网络时代，一块石子被扔进水里便可激起全球性波浪。网络上一篇牢骚帖子便可引发难以收拾的国际政治事件。这是各国间缺乏政治信任的表现。它容易煽动起极端民族主义，许多政治家不得不迎合似乎代表了民意的“网络舆论”。在新的一年里，这种网络舆论的力量依然强大。

In the era of globalization and the network,A stone thrown into the water can be aroused global wave.A complaints posts on the network can cause difficult to clean up the international political events.This is a manifestation of the lack of political trust between countries.It is easy to incite the extreme nationalism,Many politicians have to cater to seems to represent the public opinion"The network public opinion".In the New Year,The power of the network public opinion is still strong.

　　去年，美国、俄罗斯、法国、韩国、埃及、中国、朝鲜、日本等国的领导人相继更替。大多数国家的领导人为了选举和政权更替，优先就业等国内政策，在各国间没能达成重要的合作。叙利亚内战产生了大量死伤者和50万以上的难民，但是国际社会无所作为；在宏观经济政策和温室气体排放方面也鲜有成果。发达国家均有财政困难、国内贫富差距拉大、经济增长缓慢等通病，在民主选举之后也没有什么起色。在亚洲，中日关系、日韩关系均发展不顺，三国领导人的更替是修复外交的良机，新的领导人不应与邻为壑，而应构筑“一衣带水”的信赖关系。在欧洲，年轻人的失业在加剧，反对紧缩政策的声音越来越大，法国和希腊排外的极右政党在崛起。

Last year,,The United States/Russia/The French/South Korea/The land of Egypt/China/North Korea/Japan's leaders have been replaced.Most of the country's leaders for elections and regime change,Give priority to employment and other domestic policy,Important in countries failed to reach a cooperation.Syria's civil war has produced a large number of casualties and more than 500000 refugees,But the international community doing nothing;In terms of macro economic policy and greenhouse gas emissions also few results.Developed countries have financial difficulties/In China the gap between rich and poor widening/Slow economic growth, etc,After the democratic election is no improvement.In Asia,Relations between China and Japan/South Korea relations are not development,Leaders of The Three Kingdoms is the replacement of repair of diplomatic opportunity,New leaders should not be our 壑,And should build"whereas"The trust relationship.In Europe,The unemployment of young people in,Against the tightening of the voice is more and more big,France and Greece exclusive far-right parties in rise.

　　美国前总统肯尼迪说“和善不是软弱的表现”，中国古语说“耀德不观兵”。我们希望各国新的领导人利用政府更替之机，采用新的话语体系，加强国际对话，以增强国际互信，携手克服全球性危机。同时，希望这些领导人能向国民说明国际合作的重要性、长期性和艰巨性。政治家应具备足够的话语能力，遏制各国国民间互相猜忌的蔓延。（梁宝卫 编译）

Former U.S. President Kennedy said"Kindness is not a sign of weakness",China said the old"Yao's not view soldiers".We hope the new leaders from all over the world use the replacement of the machine,Using new system of discourse,Strengthen international dialogue,In order to enhance the mutual trust,Hand in hand to overcome the global crisis.At the same time,Hope these leaders to national illustrate the importance of international cooperation/Long-term and arduous.Politicians should have enough ability of discourse,Contain the spread of country folk suspiciousness from all over the world.(LiangBaoWei compile)

　　◎《金融时报》1月3日文章

money[The financial times]On January 3, article

　西方主宰的日落 Dominated by western sunset

　　新的反转已开场，新兴市场和发展中国家的出口量首次占到全球出口总量的一半。历史学家已为西方的暂时性优势提供了无尽的解释：对个人及其活动给予更多关注的宗教、更受科学思维喜爱的智力氛围、保障财富占有的财产权利、政府的轻官僚体制。这份清单是无限的，无疑所有要素在其中都发挥了作用。随着西方的强大，世界各国争相向西方学习，在西方引领前进的过程中，最终跟随的各国也开始走上前来。

New reversal has been started,Emerging markets and developing countries exports account for half of the world's total exports for the first time.Historians have for western temporary advantage provides endless explanation:For the individual and its religious activities give more attention/More popular with scientific thinking, the intellectual atmosphere/Protect the rights of the property of the riches/The government's light bureaucracy.This list is unlimited,There is no doubt that all elements play a role in it.Along with the powerful in the west,Scramble to learn from the western world,Lead forward in the process of in the west,Eventually follow countries also began to step forward.

　　正在成长的经济力量中心有很多。除了耳熟能详的巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国这金砖四国之外，还有墨西哥、印度尼西亚、尼日利亚和土耳其。就国民的高生活水平来说，中国还有很长的路要走。今日中国的人均国内生产总值仍只有西欧的三分之一、美国的四分之一。21世纪，就出口和人均收入来说，美国仍将是世界的领头羊。

There are a lot of growing economic power center.In addition to the familiar to Brazil/Russia/The brics in India and China,There are Mexican/Indonesia/Nigeria and Turkey.In the case of national high standard of living,China is still a long way to go.Today, China's per capita gross domestic product (GDP) is still only a third of Western Europe/A quarter of the United States.In the 21 st century,In the case of export and per capita income,The United States will still be the leader of the world.

　　但更令人惊讶的不是东西方间经济力量的追赶，而是资本流向的改变。20世纪的资本流向主要是西方向第三世界的援助。如今，新兴市场和发展中国家所拥有的储蓄盈余已成为老工业国家所依赖的融资渠道。由此而来的一个令人困惑的问题是，新兴国家如何利用其累积的盈余。已经有很多信号表明他们持有了美元和其他西方货币，得到的仅是很低甚至为负的真实利率。下一个阶段是新兴国家对非洲、美国和欧洲的间接及直接投资。目前，这种投资是受欢迎的，但当其利益不断增长时，注定会出现紧张局面。

But what is more surprising is not pursued economic forces between east and west,But the flow of capital.The capital flow is the main direction of the 20 th century the aid of the third world.now,Emerging markets and developing countries have the surplus savings has become old industrial countries rely on the financing channels.Which come of is a puzzling problem,Emerging countries how to use the accumulated surplus.There are many signal that they hold the dollar and other western currencies,The only real interest rate is very low or even negative.The next stage is emerging countries in Africa/Indirect and direct investment in the United States and Europe.At present,,This type of investment is welcome,But when this growing interest,Destined to appear tense situation.

　　（作者系《金融时报》资深经济评论家塞缪尔·布里坦 贺艳燕 编译）

(The author is[The financial times]Senior economic commentators Samuel in HeYanYan compilation)