每年冬天，北京市中心的房租价格会比夏天下降10%到15%。但是，大部分市中心租房者的工作是没有季节性的，他们也很少因为回家过年就把房子退掉，来回折腾省的钱还不够交中介和搬家费。那么，为什么市中心的房租价格会在冬天下降呢？

Every winter,The centre of Beijing rent price will be 10% to 15% lower than the summer.but,Most of the downtown renters there is no seasonal work,They rarely go home for Chinese New Year will return the house,Back and forth of the province of do STH over and over again is not enough money in return for a fee of intermediary and move.so,Why the center of the rent price will decline in the winter?

　　1997年，债券天王Bill Gross在他的小书《Bill Gross的投资理念》里用“浮游生物理论”解释了这种现象。他指出，这是因为市场中处于最外端的参与者的行为，通过一个个环节的传递，最终影响了最里端投资者的行为。恰如浮游生物的迁徙规律最终决定了蓝鲸的运行轨迹一样。

In 1997,,Bond king Bill Gross in his books[Bill Gross investment philosophy]Use in"Plankton theory"Explained the phenomenon.He pointed out that,This is because the market in the outside to the participant's behavior,Through one of the links,Ultimately affect the most LiDuan investors' behavior.Just as the migration regularity of plankton finally decided to track the blue whale's performance.

　　回到北京市中心房租价格的问题，固然住在市中心的租房者不常因为冬天的到来而退租，但是住在城郊的租房者会，而且由于更重的乡土情结和更少的公司制度约束，他们回家过春节的时间也更长，这就导致他们在冬天容易选择退租，导致城郊的房租随之下降，进而处在城市外圈的租房者有了更多的还价空间，进而市中心的租房者也就开始发现他们周围的房租价格开始下降，即使他们的租房需求并没有因为冬天的到来而减少。

Back to the centre of Beijing rent the problem of the price,Is living in the city centre of renters don't often because of the arrival of winter retreat hire,But live in the suburbs of the renters,And because the more heavy agrestic complex and less institutional constraints of the company,They go back home to spend the Spring Festival time longer,This will cause them to choose retreat hire in winter,Lead to the rent decreases on the outskirts of the town,And then in the city of outer ring renters have more bargain space,And the center of the city around the renters also began to find their rental prices began to fall,Even if their renting demand did not reduce because of the arrival of the winter.

　　不止租房市场，浮游生物理论可以解释更多的现象。在股票牛市中，即使一个理智的公募基金经理感到股票太贵，他仍然可能买入、而不是卖出股票，因为基民蜂拥而入的申购迫使他必须买入反之熊市亦然。基民的平均申购额可能只有几万元，但却可以影响百亿规模的基金运作。

More than rent market,Plankton theory can explain the phenomenon of more.In the bull market in stocks,Even if a rational public offering fund managers feel stock is too expensive,He can still buy/Rather than sell stocks,Because the people swarmed into the purchase of force he must buy and bear market vice versa.Base civilian the average purchase amount may only tens of thousands of yuan,But can influence of the size of the billions of fund operation.

　　春节效应也是如此。在有春节长假以来的十几年里，上证综指在春节前5个交易日里从未下跌。难道是因为那些掌管着万亿股票的一小撮机构投资者都受到了春节的影响？真正的答案可能是这样：春节会放长假，而同时又会发一些奖金，所以全国的投资者心情又好又有钱，于是纷纷入市，结果推动了指数的上涨。这就好比一百多年前纽约的天气会影响纽交所的股票指数一样。

The Spring Festival effect also is such.In the dozen years since the Spring Festival holiday,The index in the five trading days before the Spring Festival has never fall.Because of those in charge of the trillions of stock a few institutional investors are influenced by the Spring Festival?This is the real answer:The Spring Festival will have a long holiday,And will send some money,So the investors of the mood, somewhat nice and have money,So the stakes,Results promoted the rise of the index.It's like the weather in New York will affect more than one hundred years ago the nyse stock index.

　　再看利率市场化。为什么利率市场化至今难以有效进行？原因很多，但其中一个可以在沿海小工厂里找到。由于汇率被压低，沿海小工厂可以以更低的价格参与国际竞争，导致贸易顺差不断扩大，而在资本项基本封闭的情况下，外汇占款就越来越多，导致央行必须不断提高准备金率、以至于达到现在的匪夷所思的地步，以抑制货币总量。过高的准备金率导致银行被占用的资金比例过高，故而需要高息差对盈利能力进行补偿。结果，沿海小工厂那一笔笔赚来的涓涓细流，最终成了利率市场化道路上的巨大障碍。

To see the interest rate marketization.Why the interest rate marketization has difficult to effectively?A lot of reasons,But one of them can be found in a coastal small factory.Because the exchange rate is low,Coastal small factory can participate in international competition at a much lower price,Lead to increasing trade surplus,And in the case of capital basic closed,Foreign exchange gap is more and more,Lead to the central bank must improve the reserve rate/So to the point where the ridiculous now,To suppress monetary aggregates.The reserve fund rate of high lead to bank occupied the capital ratio is too high,So need to compensate those sent to profitability.The results,The small trickles of coastal small factory that instruction earned,Finally became a huge obstacle on the road of interest rate liberalization.

　　飘风起于萍末。我们的社会是一个相互牵制的整体，金融市场更是盘根错节。当一个现象无法解释的时候，也许，只是因为我们没有看到它产生的根源。 （作者单位：信达证券）

Gone with the wind the wind monastersky r.studies show biological differences.Our society is a mutual contain the whole,Financial market is more complicated.When one fails to explain the phenomena of the time,maybe,Just because we didn't see the root causes of it. (The unit:Cinda securities)