人民币距离资本项目可兑换并不远 From the capital account convertibility and not far

　　人民币可兑换进程与改革开放的深化相一致，人民币资本项目实际可兑换程度高于法律和政策限定。

The yuan convertible process and the deepening of reform and opening up is consistent,RMB capital project actual convertible degree above the law and policy limit.

　　人民币可兑换是完善社会主义市场经济体制的既定目标，这在党的十四届三中全会及其后的重要文件中均加以明确或强调。人民币可兑换进程与改革开放的深化相一致，最初是引进外资，1996年实现经常项目可兑换，2001年加入世界贸易组织后资本开放有序推进，先后实施了“走出去”、境内外合格机构投资者（QFII和QDII）、人民币跨境贸易投资结算、境外机构用人民币投资境内资本市场等，形成了贸易开放和资本双向流动逐步扩大的格局，日益趋近人民币资本项目可兑换。

The yuan convertible is to perfect the socialist market economic system established goal,This in the third plenary session of the party's fourteen and important documents are to clear or stressed.The yuan convertible process and the deepening of reform and opening up is consistent,First is the introduction of foreign capital,1996 years to achieve current account convertibility,2001 to join the world trade organization capital open and orderly propulsion,implemented"Go out"/Qualified institutional investors at home and abroad(QFII and QDII)/RMB cross-border trade and investment settlement/With the RMB investment overseas institutions within the territory of the capital market, etc,Formed a more open to trade and capital two-way flow gradually enlarged pattern,Increasingly approach RMB capital account convertibility.

　　从国际机构公认的7大类40项资本交易项目来看，外汇局评估目前我国有10项不可兑换，其余30项已基本或部分可兑换，除个人直接跨境投资、衍生品交易外，主要跨境资本交易都有一定正规渠道。

From international agencies recognized seven categories and term capital transactions project to see,The safe evaluation at present our country has ten irredeemable,The rest of the thirty item has basic or part of a convertible,In addition to personal direct cross-border investment/Derivatives trading outside,Main cross-border capital transactions have regular channels.

　　2011年我国国际收支统计的资本交易达2.58万亿美元，比2001年增长14.7倍，相当于当年GDP的35.2%，比2001年提高22.8个百分点。这一比例明显高于其他金砖国家。

In 2011, China's international balance of payments statistics capital transactions amounted to $2.58 trillion,More than 2001 increased by 14.7 times,That is equivalent to 35.2% of GDP,More than 2001 increased by 22.8%.This proportion is obviously higher than that of the other nuggets countries.

　　评估人民币可兑换状况还须考虑两个特殊因素，一是中国贸易开放度高，企业、个人可能利用经常项目可兑换的便利来摆布本外币资金和从事一些受管制的资本交易。二是内地与港澳台的联系紧密，很多国内企业在三地和开曼等避税岛都有关联公司，规避资本管制并非难事。因此，人民币资本项目实际可兑换程度高于法律和政策限定。

Estimate the yuan convertible condition must also consider two special factors,One is Chinese trade openness high,enterprise/People may use current account convertibility convenience to manipulate local funds and take some regulated capital transactions.The second is the mainland and Hong Kong, Macao and contact closely,Many domestic enterprises in the three places and the cayman island and tax avoidance have affiliates,Avoid capital controls is not a very difficult task.so,RMB capital project actual convertible degree above the law and policy limit.

3-5年内实现资本项目可兑换是可行的 3-5 years realized capital project convertible is feasible

　　稳步推进人民币资本项目可兑换和汇率、利率市场化将进一步增强市场配置资源的基础性作用。

Steadily RMB capital account convertibility and exchange rate/Interest rate marketization will further enhance the basic role of the market in resource allocation.

　　实现人民币资本项目可兑换有多方面的好处：有利于企业和居民风险管理和有效参与全球资源配置，解决资源瓶颈，提高国民福利；有利于深化金融机构、汇率利率市场化等国内金融体制改革，增强金融体系的服务能力和竞争力；有利于提高宏观调控的有效性，提升人民币的国际地位，有效管理通胀预期。

Make the yuan convertible under capital accounts have many benefits:Benefit to the enterprise and residents risk management and effective participation in global allocation of resources,Solve resource bottleneck,Improving national welfare;To deepen the financial institutions/Exchange rate and interest rate marketization domestic financial system reform,Strengthen the financial system service ability and competitiveness;To improve the effectiveness of the macroeconomic regulation and control,Improve the international status,Effective management inflation expectations.

　　当然，资本项目可兑换也会伴随一定的风险。资本项目可兑换有可能加大国内机构和市场的竞争压力和资产错配的风险，一定条件下跨境资本“大进大出”也会冲击国内市场。但对风险应予以恰如其分的估计，应破除对跨境资本流动的“原罪”意识和过度恐惧。

Of course,Capital project convertible will accompany a certain risk.Capital project convertible may increase domestic institutions and market competition pressure and asset mismatch risk,Certain conditions cross-border capital"Big into a big"Will also impact the domestic market.But the risk should be appropriate estimation,Should break of cross-border capital flows"Original sin"Consciousness and excessive fear.

　　上述风险是可防可控的。首先，资本项目可兑换是有弹性和调整空间的制度安排，并非对跨境资本自由放任。即使已实现货币可兑换的美国等，也实施反洗钱、反恐融资、打击避税天堂等制度，并从国家安全角度严格审查重大跨境资本交易。其次，各国普遍对短期投机资本采取金融交易税、无息准备金等措施，并通过头寸限制、比例管理、信息披露等严格防止外币外债过度扩张和错配。国际金融危机之后，国际货币基金组织（IMF）已认同涉及资本流动的宏观审慎管理对于预防和防范危机的必要性和合理性。最后，国际社会普遍认同，资本严重外流等特殊情况下还可采取临时性的国际收支保障和外汇管制措施。

The risk is can prevent controllable.First of all,Capital project convertible is elastic and adjustment of the space system arrangement,Not to cross-border capital laissez-faire.Even if realized currency convertibility of the United States,Also implementing anti-money laundering/Anti-terrorist financing/Against tax havens system,And from the Angle of national security strict review major cross-border capital transactions.secondly,All countries to short-term speculative capital take financial transaction tax/Interest-free reserve etc,And through the position limit/Scale management/Information disclosure strictly prevent foreign currency debt excessive expansion and mismatch.After the international financial crisis,The international monetary fund(IMF)Already identity involves capital flow macro prudent management to prevent crisis and guard against the necessity and rationality.finally,The international society common identity,Capital outflow of serious and other special circumstances can also take temporary international balance of payment security and exchange control measures.

　　当前，人民币资本项目可兑换的条件与十年前不可同日而语。传统理论上的宏观经济稳定、金融监管相对完善、外汇储备充足和金融机构稳健等四个资本项目可兑换的条件更加成熟，比印度、俄罗斯等当年宣布资本项目可兑换时的条件都要好。亚洲金融危机和国际金融危机给国内经济、企业和机构带来了一定冲击，但也提高了宏观管理部门和微观主体的风险防范意识和能力。利率市场化、汇率市场化、资本项目可兑换、人民币国际化相辅相成，但并无绝对的次序安排，改革实践中更不可能人为设定先后顺序。事实上，四者自改革开放以来一直协调推进，互相创造了条件和相互促进，均已取得显著进展。

The current,RMB capital account convertibility terms and ten years ago cannot be mentioned in the same breath.The traditional theory of macro economic stability/Financial regulation relatively perfect/Foreign currency reserves sufficient and stable financial institutions four capital account convertibility conditions more mature,Than India/Russia and the capital account convertibility announced the condition is better.The Asian financial crisis and the international financial crisis to the domestic economy/Enterprises and institutions brought a certain impact,But also improve the macro management department and the microscopic main body of risk prevention consciousness and ability.Interest rate marketization/Rate marketization/Capital account convertibility/RMB internationalization supplement each other,But there is no absolute arrangement,The reform practice more impossible by a set order.In fact,Four person since reform and opening up has been coordinated propulsion,Create conditions to each other and promote each other,All great progress has been made.

　　未来五年是实现全面建成小康社会目标的关键时期。稳步推进人民币资本项目可兑换和汇率、利率市场化将进一步增强市场配置资源的基础性作用。资本项目可兑换是深化金融体制改革和对外开放的客观要求，面临难得的机遇“窗口期”，在3-5年内实现是完全可能的。

In the future five years is to realize comprehensive well-off society in the key period.Steadily RMB capital account convertibility and exchange rate/Interest rate marketization will further enhance the basic role of the market in resource allocation.Capital project convertible is deepening the reform of the financial system and the objective requirement of the opening,Facing a rare opportunity"Window period",In 3 to 5 years to realize is completely possible.

当前需推进关键环节和重点领域的可兑换 The need to promote key links and key areas in convertible

　　人民币资本项目可兑换需协同推进汇率、利率等市场化改革。

RMB convertible under capital accounts should be coordinated advance rate/Interest rate marketization reform, etc.

　　人民币资本项目可兑换涉及多个方面，应加大顶层设计力度，抓紧研究和论证整体协调推进的方案，形成明确的路线图和时间进度安排，并尽快对外公布，引导公众预期。当前应着力推进以下关键环节和重点领域的可兑换。

RMB capital account convertibility involves many aspects,Should increase the top design strength,Pay close attention to the study and demonstration overall coordination promote solutions,Form clear roadmap and time schedules,And released as soon as possible,Guide the public expected.At present, we need to focus on promoting the following key links and key areas in convertible.

　　在资本市场方面，继续扩大QDII和QFII主体和投资额度，吸引更多境外长期和战略投资者。允许更多境外主体在境内发行人民币债券，研究择机推出股票市场国际板。

In the capital markets,Continue to expand QDII and QFII subject and investment quota,Attract more overseas long-term and strategic investors.To allow more foreign body within the territory of the issuance of RMB bonds,The study introduced the stock market international board.

　　在对外投资方面，择机推出QDII2试点，允许合格的境内个人直接对外投资实业和股票、债券等金融产品，满足个人合理的对外投资需求。同时，建立非居民个人境内投资专户制度。按照“本币优先”的原则，继续支持和鼓励企业和个人用人民币从事跨境贸易和投资计价结算的需要。

In foreign investment,The QDII2 launched pilot,Allow qualified domestic personal direct foreign investment industrial and stock/Bonds, and other financial products,Satisfy individual reasonable foreign investment demand.At the same time,Establish a non-resident individuals domestic investment account system.According to the"Priority according to"principle,Continue to support and encourage enterprises and individuals engaged in with the RMB cross-border trade and investment valuation settlement needs.

　　在管理方式方面，加快清理相关法律法规，进一步减少行政审批，对事关重大、确需保留的准入可采用反垄断、国家安全等方式实施，取消或简化一般性的准入条件。

In the management ways,To speed up the clean up relevant laws and regulations,To further reduce the administrative examination and approval,For matters/That really need to be preserved access can use antitrust/Implementation of the national security, etc,Cancel or simplified general access conditions.

　　在风险防范方面，基于防范系统性、区域性风险的底线，加快从微观审批向宏观审慎管理的转变。外债由规模管控转向以负债比例、币种匹配等为核心的宏观审慎管理，统一中外资企业外债管理政策。健全跨境资金流动监测、风险预警和应急管理体系，重点防控短期投机性资本流动风险，加强反洗钱、反恐融资、打击避税天堂等监管。

In the risk,Based on the prevention system/Regional risk bottom line,To speed up the approval from micro to macro prudent management transformation.Foreign debt by scale control steering to debt ratio/Currency matching as the core of the macro prudent management,Unified overseas enterprise debt management policy.Improve the cross-border capital flow monitoring/Risk early warning and emergency management system,Focus on short-term speculative capital flows risk prevention and control,Strengthen the anti-money laundering/Anti-terrorist financing/Against tax havens and supervision.

　　协同推进汇率、利率等市场化改革。继续稳步推进利率市场化，加快市场利率体系和央行利率调控机制建设，建立存款保险制度；利用汇率趋向均衡的有利时机，逐步扩大汇率波动弹性，提高汇率形成的市场化程度。

Collaborative propulsion rate/Interest rate marketization reform, etc.Continue to steadily promote the development of interest rate marketization,To speed up the market interest rate system and the central bank interest rate regulation mechanism construction,The establishment of a deposit insurance system;Use rate trend balanced the opportune time,Gradually expand the exchange rate fluctuation elastic,Improve the marketization of exchange rate.