严婷

YanTing

　　“金融业必须面向实体经济。这是本次全球金融危机后的普遍共识。”国际货币基金组织（IMF）副总裁朱民在1月15日亚洲金融论坛“第一财经（香港）金融峰会”上表示，所有的金融改革一定要为实体经济服务。在中国经济背景下，金融业要服务于制造业、农业、服务业、城市化与老龄化，并帮助中国经济抵御外部冲击。

"The financial industry must face the real economy.This is the global financial crisis after the common consensus."The international monetary fund(IMF)Vice President ZhuMin on January 15, Asian financial BBS"The first financial(Hong Kong)Financial summit"said,All the financial reform must be for the real economy service.Under the background of the Chinese economy,The financial industry to service in manufacturing/agricultural/services/Urbanization and aging,China's economy and help external shocks.

　　回顾中国的金融改革，过去30多年来特别是15年来取得了很大发展。但朱民也提醒道，中国金融体系的系统性风险仍然在积累。他强调，推进金融改革是必然的，但推进改革的一个标准是金融业要为实体经济服务。

Review of China's financial reform,Over the past 30 years especially for 15 years has made great development.But ZhuMin also warns,China's financial system is still in the accumulation of systemic risk.He stressed that,To promote financial reform is inevitable,But push forward the reform of the financial industry is a standard for the real economy service.

　　朱民指出，第一，全球金融体系太大，去年全球金融体系资产占国内生产总值（GDP）的450%～460%左右，如今已下降到366%左右，金融业虚拟经济相对实体经济仍然达3.6倍，规模大且杠杆率很高。第二，金融业的中介活动越来越从传统银行转换到市场为主的活动。传统银行业走过了一个资本市场化的过程，而资本市场具有强烈的顺周期性。第三，金融业产品创新太快，透明度不够，人们对产品了解度不够，例如信用违约掉期（CDS）等。

ZhuMin pointed out that,The first,The global financial system is too big,Last year the global financial system assets the gross domestic product (GDP)(GDP)About 450% ~ 460%,Now has fallen to 366%,The financial industry virtual economy is relatively entity economy is 3.6 times,Large scale and high leverage.The second,Financial intermediary activities more and more from the traditional bank conversion to market based activities.The traditional banking through a process of capital market,And the capital market has strong the periodicity.The third,Financial product innovation too fast,Transparency is not enough,Products people understand degree is not enough,Such as credit default swaps(CDS)etc.

　　在朱民看来，其背后的主要原因就是金融业背离了为实体经济服务的初衷，变成了为自身服务。

In ZhuMin seems,Behind it is the main reason for the real economy from the financial service purpose,Into a for their own services.

　　在中国的宏观经济背景下，金融业应该为哪些实体经济行业服务？

In China's macroeconomic background,The financial industry should be what the real economy industry service?

　　朱民认为，第一是制造业。中国是制造业大国，这一格局在未来不会改变。而中国的制造业上游没有资源，下游没有品牌，这些都需要金融。整个亚洲正在形成一个垂直的产业供应链，但还没有一个垂直的金融供应链。金融业必须支持制造业，不仅包括国有企业，还有民营企业、中小企业等。

ZhuMin think,The first is manufacturing.China is a manufacturing power,This pattern will not change in the future.While China's manufacturing industry upstream do not have the resources,Downstream without the brand,All these need financial.The whole of Asia are forming a vertical industry supply chain,But not a vertical financial supply chain.The financial industry must be able to support manufacturing,Includes not only the state-owned enterprise,There are private enterprises/Small and medium-sized enterprise, etc.

　　第二是农业和农村。朱民称，中国是农业大国的地位不可能改变。尽管中国已是世界第二大经济体，但人均GDP只有5000多美元。金融业不服务于农业，不把农业、农村和农民的生活水平提上去，中国不可能走可持续的发展道路。农业金融服务要让农民和农户享受金融便利，更有效地生产和抗农业周期。

The second is the agricultural and rural.ZhuMin says,China is a large agricultural nation status can't change.Although China is already the world's second largest economy,But the per capita GDP is only more than $5000.The financial industry did not serve agriculture,Don't put the agricultural/Rural areas and farmers' living standard lift up,China may not sustainable development path.Agricultural financial services to make farmers and farmers enjoy financial convenience,More effective in production and resistance to agricultural cycle.

　　第三是服务业。中国要改变增长模式，从出口投资转向内需。这不能靠借债也不能靠政府刺激，只有向服务业转变才能转向以内需为主、消费主导的增长模式。而服务业需要金融服务的支持，没有金融的发展，中国的服务业不会发展，服务业不发展，中国以内需为主导的经济也不会发展。

The third is service.China to change the mode of growth,From the export investment to domestic demand.This can't rely on debt also can't rely on the government to stimulate,Only to service changes can be turned to to domestic demand/Consumption leading growth pattern.And services need the support of financial services,No financial development,China's service industry will not development,Services not development,China's domestic demand as the leading economic also won't development.

　　第四是城市化。“城市化不等于楼市化，城市要为居民提供水电、交通、教育、医疗、文化等一系列公共服务。”朱民说，“这是城市之所以称为城市的最根本原因，而不是因为城市有大楼。”没有对公共事业的金融服务，公共事业就不能发展。

Urbanization is the fourth."Urbanization is not equal to the market change,City residents to provide water and electricity/traffic/education/medical/Culture and a series of public service."ZhuMin said,"This is the city is called the city of the most fundamental reasons,Not because cities are building."Not the public service of financial services,Public career would not be able to develop.

　　第五，金融业要为老龄化服务。中国面临的一个挑战就是迅速老龄化，未富先老。但中国有很大的储蓄，如何把居民储蓄变成有效的理财产品，增加这些产品的价值，使居民有更大的抗风险能力，用这些资产为未来老龄化做准备。

The fifth,The financial industry to aging service.China faces a challenge is rapidly aging,Get old before it gets rich.But China has a lot of savings,How to put the residents savings into effective financial products,Increase the value of these products,Make people have more risk resistance capacity,With these assets for the future to prepare aging.

　　此外，金融业要建起金融防火墙，维护中国的经济安全，抵御外部冲击。在危机以前，外部影响对中国GDP变动的影响约占30%，危机后外部冲击对中国GDP产出波动的影响高达65%。中国是个完全国际化的经济体，在这一情况下，如何有效地防止外部经济冲击，维护实体经济发展，需要金融业。

In addition,The financial industry to build financial firewall,Safeguard China's economic security,External shocks.Before the crisis,The external influence of the affection of the change of China's GDP accounted for about 30%,After the crisis external impact on China's GDP output fluctuations as high as 65%.China is a fully international economy,In this case,How to effectively prevent the external economic impact,Maintenance of the real economy,Need financial.

　　朱民表示，中国的金融改革任重而道远。IMF去年第一次对中国金融体系做了全面的检测，通过压力测试对中国17家银行进行单独测试。经过一系列压力测试，IMF认为中国金融体系总体还是健康的。

ZhuMin said,China's financial reform heavy responsibities.IMF first time last year to China's financial system to do a comprehensive test,Through the pressure test on China's 17 Banks separate test.After a series of pressure test,IMF think that China's financial system overall or healthy.

　　但他警示称，与此同时，中国金融业的系统性风险正在积累，金融业正受到越来越多的外部冲击。金融业正在走向脱媒化。例如，中国去年整体社会融资规模中，传统银行业务只占60%，40%已经移到了非银行体系的资本市场。这一水平已经接近当今世界发达国家的一般水平。

But he said warning,meanwhile,China's financial industry systemic risk is accumulated,The financial industry is being more and more external shocks.The financial industry is to disintermediation change.Such as,China last year in the whole social financing scale,The traditional banking business only 60%,40% have moved to other system of capital market.This level is close to the developed countries of the world average.

　　有人说影子银行泡沫即将爆破，有人说影子银行没有问题。问题是，“这40%的融资去了哪里？去了制造业吗？服务业吗？中小企业吗？农村农民吗？还是去了房地产或是其他领域？”朱民说，要用这个尺度来衡量。

Some say the shadow Banks foam is blasting,Some say the shadow Banks no problem.The problem is,"This 40% financing went to where?Went to the manufacturing?Services??Small and medium-sized enterprise??Rural farmers??Went to the real estate or other areas?"ZhuMin said,To use this measure.