本报讯 （记者陈芳）美国能源信息署(EIA)发布的最新报告显示，2012年12月份，产油大国沙特的原油产量出现意外减少，沙特原油产量的减少使得石油输出国组织（OPEC）的原油价格出现4个月以来的首次上涨。纽约商业期货交易所(NYMEX)原油期货主力合约自去年12月中旬以来出现一波涨势，目前处于近三个月以来的高点。尽管如此，低迷的市场将导致国内成品油批发价格稳中下行。由此，批发价较零售均价则出现一定的价差，让加油站从中获利增多。

Report from our correspondent (Reporter garrel Dr)The United States energy information administration(EIA)The latest report issued,In December, 2012,Oil production country Saudi oil production appears to reduce accident,Saudi oil yield reduction makes the organization of petroleum exporting countries(OPEC)Crude oil prices appear four months rose for the first time.New York business futures exchange(NYMEX)Crude oil futures main contract since last year December appeared since the middle of a wave of rise,At present in nearly three months high.Even so,The weak market will lead to the domestic refined oil wholesale prices steady downward.this,The wholesale price is retail average have a certain price,To benefit from increased gas station.

　　OPEC原油

OPEC crude oil

　　均价升至108美元

Average price to $108

　　去年12月，原油生产大国沙特的原油产量出现意外下降，并带动OPEC市场原油价格出现四个月以来的首次上涨。数据显示，去年12月沙特原油产量为902.5万桶/日，比去年11月减少50万桶/日，比去年4月和6月的产量最高值下降了110万桶/日，是沙特自2009年1月以来最大幅度的单月产量削减。

Last December,Crude oil production country Saudi oil production decline in accident,And drive the OPEC market price of crude oil in four months rose for the first time.Data display,Last December the Saudi oil production for 9.025 million barrels per day,Reduce than last November 500000 barrels per day,Than last April and June production high fell by 1.1 million barrels per day,Saudi Arabia is from 1 January 2009 greatly since the month production cut.

　　沙特原油产量的减少立即带动欧佩克原油价格。欧佩克市场监督原油一揽子均价在去年12月13日至2013年1月13日的一个月期间出现小幅上涨，至每桶108.77美元，较前一月度上涨2.22美元，涨幅为2.08%，这是欧佩克月度市场监督原油一揽子均价4个月来出现的首次上涨。

Saudi oil yield reduction drive Opec crude oil prices immediately.Opec crude oil market supervision average package on December 13, to January 13, 2013 a month period appear more modest,To $108.77 a barrel,The previous monthly rose $2.22,A 2.08% increase,This is Opec monthly market supervision and crude oil package average 4 months to appear rose for the first time.

　　据隆众石化网分析师李彦分析认为，沙特作为欧佩克组织头号产油国，其产量下滑一度引发了沙特意图维持高价的猜测。不过，当前布伦特油价在110美元附近震荡，与欧佩克期望的100美元相比高出不少，因此保价的可能性相对较小。目前，美国页岩油产量持续增长，降低了部分地区对沙特石油的依赖，同时全球需求疲软继续制约消耗量，这或许才是沙特原油产量下滑的主要原因。

According to rise the petrochemical and analysts that was sent by li yan analysis,Saudi Arabia's oil producers as Opec organization,The production decline once triggered a Saudi intent to maintain high guess.but,The current brent oil prices in the neighborhood of 110 dollars concussion,And Opec expected compared to $100 higher than many,So the possibility of valuation is relatively small.At present,The United States shale oil production growth,The lower parts of Saudi oil dependency,At the same time, the weak global demand continues to restrict consumption,Perhaps this is the Saudi oil production the main reason for the decline.

　　预计：

Is expected to:

　　三地原油变化率收窄

Crude oil rate three narrow

　　NYMEX的原油期货近日在冲击95美元未果之后有所回落，目前在93美元附近徘徊，依然是近三个月以来的高点。布伦特原油期货主力合约近期最高冲至112.34美元/桶，昨日回落至109~110美元之间。

NYMEX crude oil futures has $95 in shock after failing to drop back,At present in the neighborhood of 93 dollars wandering,Is still nearly three months high.Brent crude oil futures contract main recent highest impact to $112.34 / barrel,Yesterday back to between $109 and $110.

　　由于近期国际油价的一波涨幅，三地原油均价开始由负转正，隆众石化网的统计数据显示，截至1月15日，辛塔、布伦特、迪拜三地原油均价为108.52美元/桶，较去年11月15日调价基准上涨了0.12%。

Due to the recent international oil prices rise a wave,Three average crude oil from the start of negative become a full member,Long the petrochemical and the statistical data shows,By January 15,,Symplectic tower/brent/Dubai crude oil for three average price of $108.52 a barrel,A last November 15, price adjustment reference rose 0.12%.

　　对于后市，卓创资讯分析师胡慧春认为，短期内消息面对市场影响减弱，原油期货市场逐渐转向基本面，全球经济增长仍面临下滑压力，势必打压石油需求，石油供应相对充足。在供需基本面影响下，短期内国际油价会保持震荡下滑走势。

The market outlook for,Zhuo and information HuHuiChun analysts think,In the short term market news in the face of weakening effect,Crude oil futures market will gradually turn to fundamentals,Global economic growth still faces downward pressure,Certainly will crack down on oil demand,Oil supply relative enough.Under the influence of the supply and demand fundamentals,In the short term international oil prices will keep falling trend shocks.

　　据卓创资讯数据监测显示，短期内三地变化率仍会保持涨势，不过，如果近期国际油价保持震荡下滑走势，使三地原油均价震荡走低，预计后期三地变化率涨幅将会缩窄，市场上调预期较弱。而如果近期国际油价呈现震荡上涨，使三地原油均价出现震荡上涨态势，且涨幅在每桶5美元之内，预计后期三地变化率将保持涨势，最快将于2月中旬涨破4%，届时上调窗口或开启。因此，春节前成品油调价窗口应该处于关闭状态，而若原油涨幅有限，春节后上调窗口开启仍存在变数。

According to zhuo and data monitoring information display,In the short term rate three will continue to rise,but,If the recent international oil prices keep falling trend shocks,Make three average price of crude oil shock slump,Three is expected late rate increase will erode,The market is expected to increase is weak.And if the recent international oil prices rose on shock,Make three volatile oil average rise,And the increase in at $5 a barrel,Three is expected late rate will keep rise,The fastest in mid-february break up 4%,The raised window or open.so,Before the Spring Festival refined oil price adjustment window should be closed,And if oil or limited,After the Spring Festival raised window open still has variable.

　　业内分析：

The analysis:

　　受需求影响成品油

Demand by oil

　　批发价稳中下行

The wholesale price stability descending

　　国内的成品油消费市场上，近期没有重磅的利空、利好消息，成交气氛略显清淡。主要是因为“天公不作美”，在全国大范围地区经历了雨雪天气之后，本周大雾阴霾天气再次蔓延至中东大部分市场，交通运输不畅，导致市场资源流通效率下降，市场成交减少。

Domestic product oil consumption market,Recent no big write-downs/Good news,Clinch a deal the atmosphere slightly bland.Mainly because"Bad weather",In the large area experienced after the rain and snow,This week the fog haze weather again spread to most of the Middle East market,Transportation impeded,Lead to market resource distribution efficiency decline,Market clinch a deal to reduce.

　　低迷的市场导致国内成品油批发价格稳中下行，截至1月16日中宇资讯监测的国内主营单位汽柴油批发均价为：93号汽油9471元/吨，0号柴油8373元/吨，较零售到位均价有508元/吨和388元/吨的差价。

Bad market lead to the domestic refined oil wholesale prices steady downward,By January 16, ZhongYu information monitoring domestic main unit steam diesel wholesale average price for:93 gasoline 9471 yuan/ton,0 diesel, 8373 yuan/ton,A retail in place average price is 508 yuan/ton and 388 yuan/tons of price difference.

　　不过这种状况可能在近期内有所改变。中宇资讯分析师高承莎预计，相关天气预报显示，接下来几天，持续多日的大范围雾霾天气将逐渐减弱、结束。届时相关受限高速路段会恢复畅通，各方运输将恢复正常，这一消息或将提振油市成交量，加速资源流通速度。

But this situation may change in the near future.ZhongYu information analysts GaoChengSha expected,Related to the weather forecast shows,In the coming days,Days for a wide range of fog haze weather will gradually weaken/end.The relevant limited high-speed sections will restore clear,All transportation will return to normal,The news or will boost oil city volume,Accelerate circulation of resources.