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业绩持续性难经受考验 私募想说爱你不容易--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2013-01-17
特点一:风水一年一转 Features a:Geomantic turn a year
好买基金研究中心统计了从2008年到2012年的非结构化阳光私募前十(由于2012年的私募净值未完全更新完毕,此前十依旧存在微调可能性),不难发现,前一年的前十几乎很少出现在第二年的榜单之中。这就是人们常说的“冠军魔咒”。
Good buy fund research center statistics from 2008 to 2012 years of unstructured sunshine private first ten(Because the 2012 private equity not completely finished update,After ten remain fine possibility),Is not difficult to find,A year before the first ten almost rarely appears in the second year of the list.This is the people often said"Champion spell".
所谓阳光私募的“冠军魔咒”,主要指的是前一年的冠军产品很难在下一年继续保持其良好的业绩,如果将这一魔咒的概念再扩大范围,前一年的前十榜单也很少在下一年出现重复。好买统计从2008年到2012年的私募前十,能够连续出现在前列的私募凤毛麟角。2011年出现于前十榜单的金中和与景良能量分别在2008年和2009年进入阳光私募的前十榜单,而2012年出现在榜单的德源安战略成长1号和呈瑞1期则分别在2010年和2011年进入榜单前十。而如果从登榜时间来看的话,除了呈瑞1期是连续两年进入榜单前十之外,其余重合产品均是时隔1年或2年再入榜单的。
The so-called sunshine of private equity"Champion spell",Refers to the last year's champion product next year it is difficult to continue to maintain its good performance,If the spell to widen the scope of the concept,Last year's top ten list rarely appeared in the next repeat.Good buy statistics from 2008 to 2012 of the top ten private,Can continuous appeared in the forefront of private rare breed.In 2011, appeared in the top ten list of gold and energy and JingLiang respectively in 2008 and 2009 in the first ten sunshine private list,And in 2012 appears on the list of German source Ann strategic growth 1 and 1) in red respectively in 2010 and 2011 into the top ten list.And if the list from time to see's words,In addition to the red 1 period is for two years into the top ten list outside,The rest of the coincidence product is after 1 year or 2 years again into the list.
出现冠军魔咒的原因是多方面的,有些是在市场的风格变换之中,公司的投资风格一时无法适应变化的风格,即使及时调整了仓位,也还是需要一定的时间方能够弥补前期的损失并继续获益。也有些是由于在成功登榜之后,投资者的关注大幅提高,公司对于资产的管理水平跟不上规模的扩张速度,也导致了业绩的下滑。
Champion spell in a variety of reasons,Some are in the market of style transformation,The company's investment style can't adapt to the change of style,Even if adjust the position,Still need some time to make up for the loss of the party and continue to benefit.Also some are due to the successful after's list,The attention of investors greatly increased,The company for asset management level can't keep up with the expansion of the speed,Also led to the decline of the performance.
特点二:规模一大就玩不转 Features two:A large scale is WanBuZhuan
许付漪在研究中还发现,伴随着私募产品规模的迅速扩张,私募产品的业绩也在急剧下滑。
XuFuYi in the study also found,With private product of the rapid expansion of the scale,Private product performance also falling sharply.
由于阳光私募产品的规模较少披露,因此我们仅以发行产品数量的多少来作为衡量的大致标准。好买统计了阳光私募发行非结构化产品的数量,并列举计算了产品发行量最大的前十以及其平均累计收益。发行产品数量最多的前十大私募分别为朱雀、淡水泉、新价值、星石、尚雅、涌峰、武当、从容、中睿合银和翰信,其中产品发行数量最大的前五分别发行了30、29、29、26和25只非结构化阳光私募产品。
Due to the size of the sun private products less disclosure,So we only to release the product quantity to as a measure of the general standard.Good buy statistics the sun private issue than the number of structured products,And the products are calculated in the first ten largest circulation and its average accumulated earnings.Product release the largest number of top ten private rosefinch, respectively/Freshwater spring/New value/Star stone/Is the/Flood peak/wudang/calmly/In close, silver and John letter,The largest number of product release in the five were released 30/and/and/26 and 25 only unstructured sunshine private products.
对于部分私募而言,在其规模扩张之后由于管理水平还限于之前的管理规模之上,往往会引起一些业绩的下滑,最典型的有新价值,在发行了29只产品之后,再加上市场风格的急转,平均累计收益为-43.12%。
For some in private,In its expansion because after the management level is limited to the management of the above before the scale,Often can cause some performance decline,The most typical new value,In the released and only after the products,Plus market style of flashbacks,Average accumulated earnings for - 43.12%.
当然,也有一些私募在规模扩张的同时也保持了业绩的稳步增长,云南模式的涌峰凭借旗下中国龙系列产品的优秀表现,22只产品整体已经获得了65.65%的平均累计收益。同样稳定扩张的还有星石、中睿合银、淡水泉以及朱雀,分别获得了18.63%、11.96%、8.83%和5.91%的平均累计收益,不过,其中淡水泉在前几年也曾有过非常惨淡的日子。
Of course,There are also some private in the expansion also maintained a steady growth in the performance,Yunnan model of flood peak with its Chinese dragon series products of excellent performance,And only the whole product has got 65.65% of the average accumulated earnings.The same steady expansion and star stone/, close in silver/Fresh water springs and rosefinch,Got 18.63% respectively/11.96%/8.83% and 5.91% of the average accumulated earnings,but,The fresh water springs in a few years ago had very gloomy day.
特点三:同门不同命 Features three:Biconditional gate different life
伴随着规模扩张带来业绩下滑的怪现象的,还有阳光私募的“同门不同命”现象。除旗舰产品以外,其他产品的业绩都相去甚远。
With the scale expansion bring performance declining strange phenomenon,And the sun of private equity"Biconditional gate different life"phenomenon.In addition to outside flagship products,Other products are all performance.
其中比较典型的有呈瑞,在呈瑞1期获得36.90%的年化收益的同时,其余7只产品均出现不同程度的亏损。精熙的精熙1期在获得28.28%的年化收益同时,其余产品表现年化收益均在5%之下,有些甚至出现负的年化收益,全部产品的年化收益方差为13.08%。六禾旗下的六禾光辉岁月1期的年化收益率为15.25%,但其余产品表现均不佳,全部产品的年化收益方差为61.93%,年化收益最好产品和最差产品之间极差为99.25%。
Which is the typical have show red,The red in 1) get 36.90% of the annualised income at the same time,The rest of the 7 only products appear different degree of loss.The essence of the pure hee hee 1 period in get 28.28% of the annualised income at the same time,The rest of the product performance annualised earnings are below 5%,Some appear even negative change in income,All the products in turn income variance is 13.08%.Six grass its six grass glory years 1 issue of the annualised rate of return is 15.25%,But the rest of the product performance is not good,All the products in turn income variance is 61.93%,Annualised income the best products and the worst between products range is 99.25%.
同一私募基金公司旗下各个私募产品的差异,主要还是由于多基金经理制引起的。基金经理个人的精力毕竟有限,在规模急速扩张之后,无法顾及到全部产品,但是多位基金经理相对各异的操作风格又很容易引起业绩的差异。或者也有基金经理会出于分散风险的考虑而对其管理的不同产品采取不同的投资策略或是管理方式。
The same private fund company's various private product difference,The main or because fund manager system of the cause.The fund manager personal energy co., LTD., after all,The scale after apace,Not all products into consideration,But many fund managers of different relative operation style and is easy to cause the difference of performance.Or have the fund manager will be out of diversification of risk consideration for the management of the different product adopt different investment strategy or management mode.
不过,也有些私募会采取复制的策略,比如星石26只产品中,总体收益表现稳健,仅有3个产品出现了负的收益,并且亏损均控制在5%之内。
but,Also some private will take replication strategy,Such as star stone and only products,Overall income stable performance,Only three products appeared negative income,And losses are controlled within 5%.
由于上述特点,使投资者长期跟踪某只私募产品的举措很难获得理想的收益率,真的是“想说爱你不容易”。
Because of the above characteristics,Make investors long-term tracking a private product measures is difficult to get the ideal rate of return,Is really"Want to say love you not easy".
截止到2012年年底,国内阳光私募产品已经超过2000只,如果只看绝对的业绩数字,大量的私募中坚力量很容易被忽视。这样一个状态,其实并不利于私募行业的发展进步。效仿公募基金的分类模式,细化私募的业绩排名已经成为当务之急。
By the end of 2012,Domestic sunshine private products have been more than 2000 only,If only look at absolute performance figures,A large number of private backbone is easy to be ignored.Such a state,Actually not conducive to the development of the private equity industry progress.Follow the lead of public offering fund classification model,Refining private performance ranking has become the urgent matter.
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