金融观察

Financial observation

　　如果以通货膨胀水平3.5%为测算，央行的利率政策应当允许银行业金融机构将一年期存款利率上浮到4.5%左右。与此同时，不宜继续提高存款准备金率。

If inflation to 3.5% for calculation,The central bank's interest rate policy should allow financial institutions in the banking industry will be the one-year deposit interest rate rise to 4.5%.meanwhile,Is unfavorable, continue to improve the deposit reserve rate.

　　按照中央经济工作会议确立的目标，2013年的CPI应当控制在3.5%左右。虽然去年消费价格总水平比上年上涨2.6%，物价相对温和，但从当前宏观经济运行看，今年通胀形势并不乐观。

According to the central economic working conference established goal,2013 years of CPI should be controlled at 3.5%.Although the general level of consumer prices last year rose 2.6% more than last year,Prices relatively mild,But from the current macroeconomic operation to see,Inflation this year the situation is not optimistic.

　　国际上，主要发达国家纷纷实行宽松货币政策。去年12月，美联储再度宣布推出第四轮量化宽松QE4，并将联邦基金利率维持在0-0.25%的极低水平；与此同时，欧洲央行启动了“直接货币交易”（OMT）计划，日本央行也将购入资产的基金规模扩大至91万亿日元。这些政策的出台，无一不会诱发输入型通货膨胀。

The international,Major developed countries have a loose monetary policy.Last December,The federal reserve announced the launch of the first round again QE4 quantitative easing,And the federal funds rate to maintain at 0-0.25% of the lowest level;meanwhile,The European central bank launched"Direct currency trading"(OMT)plan,The bank of Japan will also buy assets of the fund scale to 91 trillion yen.These policies come on stage,No not induced imported inflation.

　　从国内来看，推高物价的因素也大量存在。去年年底、今年年初，我国多地更为寒冷，雨雪天气频现，导致猪肉、鸡蛋、蔬菜等农产品价格上涨。由于食品在我国CPI篮子中的比重高达30%以上，食品价格上涨，必然加剧通胀风险。

From domestic to see,Push the high price factor also abounds.By the end of last year/Earlier this year,Our country much more cold,The rain and snow frequency now,Lead to pork/eggs/Vegetables and other agricultural products prices.Because food in China's CPI basket of the proportion is as high as 30% above,Food prices,Will aggravate inflation risks.

　　今年3月，我国将完成政府换届。按照过去规律，各地换届之后很可能形成新一轮的投资热潮，并推高该年的物价水平。

In march this year,China will finish of the government.In accordance with the law of the past,After the change of all is likely to form a new round of investment boom,And push GaoGai years of price level.

　　就长期因素而言，我国需要避免掉入中等收入陷阱，要求全民收入分配更为均等，例如增加蓝领工人和农民的工资水平。只有这样，才能发挥好消费在经济发展中的基础性作用。但从另外一个角度看，这也会带来劳动力成本的上升。

For long-term factors are concerned,The country needs to avoid falling into middle-income trap,The requirements of the income distribution is more equal,Such as increase the blue-collar workers and peasants' wages.Only in this way,To play a good consumption in the economic development of the basic role.But from another perspective,It also can bring the higher Labour costs.

　　还有，中央提出了工业化、信息化、城镇化、农业现代化的新“四化”目标，特别是随着城镇化的不断推进，中国的土地成本必然上升。

and,The central puts forward industrialization/information/urbanization/The new agricultural modernization"Four modernizations"target,Especially with the continuous progress of the urbanization,China's land cost will rise.

　　既然短期和长期因素都预示了潜在通胀压力，我们就要在货币信贷上做好文章。现在看来，中央提出2013年实施稳健的货币政策，更多还是带有偏紧的涵义。

Since short-term and long-term factors have indicated the potential inflationary pressure,We will be in the currency credit to this article.Now it seems,In 2013 the central proposed implementation of prudent monetary policy,Or more with partial tight meaning.

　　首先，不宜纵容负利率的存在，至少将真实利率维持在1%左右。以一年期存款利率为例，目前央行基准利率是3%，五大商业银行上浮至3.25%，其他中小银行业金融机构通常上浮至3.3%。如果以通货膨胀水平3.5%为测算，央行的利率政策应当允许银行业金融机构将一年期存款利率上浮到4.5%左右。

First of all,Not indulge the presence of budget,At least the real interest rate at 1%.With the one-year deposit rate as an example,At present the central bank benchmark interest rate is 3%,Five big commercial bank rise to 3.25%,Other small and medium-sized financial institutions in the banking industry usually rise to 3.3%.If inflation to 3.5% for calculation,The central bank's interest rate policy should allow financial institutions in the banking industry will be the one-year deposit interest rate rise to 4.5%.

　　与此同时，不宜继续提高存款准备金率。这是因为，虽然去年央行曾经两次下调存款准备金率，但大型银行存准率高达20%，中小银行存准率也在16.5%，仍然处于历史较高水平。而央行法定存款准备金利率仅有1.62%，大大低于同期基准存款利率水平，势必增加银行业的经营成本。当前，中国银行(601988,股吧)业正处于利率市场化改革加快阶段，银行利差水平不断下降，盈利逐步归于理性，虽然提高存准率可以反通胀，但一味将存准率维持在较高水平，势必威胁我国银行业竞争力。从这个意义上讲，我国利率和存准率的变动应保持政策组合的逆周期方向，同时保持存准率水平总体下降趋势。也就是说，为了抵御通胀，可以更多采用“小幅降准+大幅升息”组合，而不是“小幅升准+小幅升息”组合。

meanwhile,Is unfavorable, continue to improve the deposit reserve rate.This is because,Although last year the central bank had twice the deposit reserve rate cut,But big Banks must deposit rate reaches as high as 20%,Small and medium-sized Banks must deposit rate at 16.5%,History is still in a higher level.And the central bank legal deposit reserve rate is only 1.62%,Much lower than the benchmark deposit rate level,Certainly will increase the banking business cost.The current,The bank of China(601988,guba)Industry is in a market-oriented interest rate reform to speed up the stage,Bank interest margin level continue to drop,Profit gradually to reason,Although improve accuracy can save against inflation,But blindly will save quasi rate to maintain in a higher level,China's banking industry competitiveness will be threatened.In this sense,Our country interest rate and deposit quasi rate changes should keep policy combination of countercyclical direction,At the same time keep the accuracy level with the overall decline.that,In order to combat inflation,Can use more"Small drop quasi + interest rate rise sharply"combination,not"Small rise quasi + small interest rate rise"combination.

　　新平（经济学家）

xinping(economists)