倪金节

NiJin section

　　货币扩张是过去十年支撑中国经济高速成长的核心元素。每轮宏观调控之际，货币政策都扮演了主要角色。比照十年前后，我们发现，这段时期变化最激烈的恰是货币金融领域。

Monetary expansion is over the past decade support China's rapid economic growth of the core elements.Each round of macroeconomic regulation and control,Monetary policy is to play a major role.In ten years before and after,We found,This period change the most intense just is monetary and financial fields.

　　不久前，央行发布的2012年社会融资规模统计数据报告，进一步夯实了中国货币金融环境已发生变化的论点——金融脱媒大势已定，直接融资渐成气候，市场化在倒逼金融改革。

Not long ago,The central bank issued 2012 social financing scale statistical data report,Further strengthen China's monetary and financial environment has changed argument - financial disintermediation the tide is unlikely,Certailnly direct financing,Market in DaoBi financial reform.

　　十年前，我国的金融体系高度依赖银行系统。2002年人民币贷款占据社会融资总量的91%，社会经济几乎悉数被银行信贷控制。但从2010年开始，这一比例已跌破了60%，随之继续下降到2011年的58%和2012年的52%。这也就是说，股票、证券、信托理财、私募基金、民间借贷正成为资金供求双方的主战场，它们完全能通过资金的银行体外循环，实现更高效率的资金对接。这是金融学典型意义上的“金融脱媒”现象。

Ten years ago,China's financial system is highly dependent on the banking system.2002 RMB loan occupy 91% of the total social financing,The social economy almost all be bank credit control.But since 2010,This scale has dipped below 60%,Then continue to drop to 58% in 2011 and 52% in 2012.This also means,stock/securities/Trust financing/Private equity fund/Folk lending is becoming capital supply and demand both sides of the main battlefield,They can fully through the capital bank in vitro cycle,Achieve higher efficiency of the capital butt.This is typical in the sense of finance"Financial disintermediation"phenomenon.

　　金融脱媒在这十年间的加速演变，与经济大环境密切相关。一来，实体经济低迷，很多领域资产泡沫膨胀，投机性资金需求旺盛，为快速获得所需资金，不惜承担高昂的借贷成本，而满足这类需求显然非银行部门更加得心应手。二来，在国企越来越强势的格局下，国有部门和地方政府成为银行信贷大户，民企贷款艰难。中国融资系统于是分化为两极：既得利益阶层把银行当“取款机”，民间阶层只能诉诸直接融资。三来，央行在利率市场化改革方面的举措可圈可点，资本市场扩容成就斐然。多重力量的合力，终于撬开了过往铁板一块的银行式金融体系的坚冰。

Financial disintermediation in this ten years accelerated evolution,And closely related to the economic environment.way,Entity economic downturn,Many areas asset bubble expansion,Speculative capital demand,To quickly get the funds required for the,At bear high borrowing costs,And meet this kind of demand obviously non-bank department more handy.secondly,In the state-owned enterprise is more and more strong pattern,State department and local government become a large bank credit,Corporation loan difficult.China's financing system and differentiation for the poles:The bank when vested interest class"ATM",Folk class can only resort to direct financing.Three to,The central bank in the interest rate marketization reform initiatives adequately,Capital market expands brilliant achievements.Multiple power of the force,Finally pry the past a monolithic block bank type financial system of the ice.

　　不过，中国式金融脱媒带有典型的“倒逼”特征，主动的金融改革痕迹并不明显。比如，在成熟经济体占据主导的股票和债券融资，在社会融资总规模中的比例依然不高。层层的制度障碍和行政烙印，导致资本市场发展缓慢，结构性矛盾沉疴遍地。

but,Chinese financial disintermediation with typical"DaoBi"characteristics,Active financial reform trace is not obvious.Such as,In mature economies occupy the leading stock and bond financing,In the total scale of social financing the proportion is still not high.Layer upon layer the system barrier and administrative brand,Lead to capital market development is slow,Structural contradictions severe and lingering illness the land.

　　以公司债为例，这本是中小企业融资的上佳途径，但相对于国债和金融债，企业债发展十分缓慢。2004年《中国投融资体制改革的决定》发布至今6年，虽然金融高官、专家学者不断呼吁加快公司债等市场的发展，但停留在口头上的局面一直没有大的改变。

In corporate bonds as an example,This is a good way of financing of small and medium enterprises,But relative to the national debt and financial bond,QiYeZhai development is very slow.In 2004,[China's investment and financing system reform decision]Release has 6 years,Although financial official/Experts and scholars have repeatedly called for speed up the corporate debt and the development of the market,But to stay in the oral situation has not changed.

　　公司债市场不仅受到强力的行政管制，发改委独掌审批权，而且在体制上始终难以推进，至今仍无明确的地位认定。正如中国社科院副院长李扬直言，“中国公司债市场的问题，主要是体制问题，不是技术问题。”公司债是用市场手段规避市场风险的得力工具，可让人难以理解的是，用行政管理手段控制风险，却成了有关部门长期不愿抛弃的工作思路。

Corporate debt market not only by the strength of the administrative control,Development and reform commission only palm rights,And in the system always hard to promote,Still no definite position determination.As vice President of the Chinese academy of LiYang the truth,"The problem of Chinese corporate debt market,The main problem is system,Is not a technical problem."Corporate debt is to use market means to avoid market risks right tools,Can let a person is difficult to understand,Use administrative means to control risk,Relevant departments have become long-term is not willing to abandon the work mentality.

　　最近两年，发展最为凶猛的则是高风险系数的信托市场。截至去年底，信托市场总规模已突破7万亿，超过了国内第二大金融机构保险业6.9万亿元的规模。看央行公布的数据，去年信托贷款增幅最猛，从2011年的占比1.6%蹿升至8.2%，全年新增额为2011年的近六倍。可以料见，信托融资是近两年金融脱媒加速的重要力量。信托业从来就是利益纵横交错、三角债、多角债最为集中的行当，如此高速的爆发，俨然开始为中国式金融脱媒拉响警钟。

Over the past two years,Development is the most fierce is high risk factor of the trust of the market.By the end of last year,Trust total market scale has reached 7 trillion,More than the country's second largest financial institutions insurance 6.9 trillion yuan scale.Look at the data by the central bank,Last year the trust loan growth is the most fierce,From 2011 accounted for more than 1.6% to 8.2% up,The XinZengE for 2011 years of nearly six times.Can see material,The trust financing is nearly two years financial disintermediation accelerated important strength.Never trust industry is interests crisscross/Chain debts/Polygonal debt the most concentrated work,Such high outbreak,Seemed to Chinese financial disintermediation sound the alarm bell.

　　超常规的金融脱媒速度，也加剧了银行的信贷扩张速度。随着人民币贷款占比下降，银行系统只能在总量上大做文章。表面上看，有了非银部门的扩张，近几年银行信贷屡屡创出天量，可与非银行融资系统的扩张相比，似乎并不值得大惊小怪。但2008年之后的信贷扩张确实超出了实体经济的正常需求，由此产生了对不良资产卷土重来的深深担忧。远超警戒线的信贷GDP比、近百万亿广义货币M2，都在高度警示：银行信贷切不可与非银行部门的扩张“竞赛”。

Special financial disintermediation speed,Also aggravate the bank credit expansion speed.Along with the RMB loans accounted for more than down,The banking system can only be on the big fuss about the total amount.On the surface,Had not the expansion of silver department,In recent years the bank credit repeatedly making day quantity,But with the expansion of non-bank finance system compared,Doesn't seem worth a storm in a teacup.But 2008 years later credit expansion really beyond the normal demand entity economy,The resulting the bad assets back deep concern.Far beyond the line of credit than GDP/Trillions of nearly M2,Are at the height of the warning:Bank credit must not and other departments of the expansion"competition".

　　所以，金融脱媒趋势固然可喜，但隐藏的风险巨大；万不可因非银行融资高速扩张，就以为天量信贷十分合理。稳固金融脱媒趋势，首要在于控制信托等市场的野蛮生长，规范民间借贷市场，同时扫清债市和股市的制度障碍，大比例提高股票、债券在社会融资总额的占比。

so,Financial disintermediation trend is gratifying,But hidden risk huge;Do not for non-bank finance rapid expansion,Think day quantity credit is very reasonable.Solid financial disintermediation trend,First is to control the trust markets such as savage growth,Standard folk lending market,Clear the debt and equity markets at the same time the system barrier,Large proportion to improve stock/Bonds in the society of the total amount of the financing of ratio.

　　发达国家银行的发展史证明，真正的金融脱媒，必以损失银行利益为前提。自20世纪80年代以来，随着金融全球化和工程化趋势的高速推进，各种新金融产品汹涌而出，证券市场成为欧美经济的主血脉，银行的媒介作用日趋萎缩，失去了融资的主导地位，因为利差收入剧减，银行依靠传统业务已难以维持生存。

The history of developed country bank proof,The real financial disintermediation,Will loss the bank interests as the premise.Since the 1980 s,With the trend of financial globalization and engineering high-speed propulsion,All kinds of new financial products surge out,Securities market as Europe and the United States economic main veins,Bank's media function is shrinking,Lost the leading position of financing,Because carry income quickly,Banks rely on the traditional business has been difficult to survive.

　　而当下中国银行(601988,股吧)业的主要盈利仍然依赖存贷差，非利息收入仅占收入总额的19%左右，而国外银行的非利息收入比例达到35%以上。在中国银行业现有的资产结构中，信贷资产一般占85%左右，利差收入在总收入结构中占90%以上。很显然，以我国当下的金融格局，并不足以支撑健康的金融脱媒，这也是如今中国式金融脱媒矛盾四伏、问题重重的原因。

And then the bank of China(601988,guba)The main industry profitability is still dependent on deposit difference,Non-interest income accounts for only about 19% of the total income,And foreign bank non-interest income more than 35%.In the China banking existing assets structure,Credit assets generally about 85%,Carry income in the income structure of more than 90%.obviously,In China's current financial structure,Is not enough to support healthy financial disintermediation,This is now Chinese financial disintermediation contradiction weakness/Reason in question.

　　在仍要确保银行利益的大前提下，中国式金融脱媒注定了将要经历更为艰辛、更为曲折的过程。

Is to ensure that the interests of the bank on the premise,Chinese financial disintermediation doomed will experience more difficult/More tortuous process.

　　（作者系中国人保资产研究所客座研究员，财经作家）

(The insurer of China institute of assets visiting researcher,Financial writer)