股指历经九个月后本周五重回2400点之上，从中国证券报记者调查的情况来看，“老乡”的确帮了大忙。从去年12月初到本周，一些社保基金专户的仓位从四成提高至六成多。然而，社保基金专户的股票仓位上限通常为七成，这意味着“乡党”已经接近满仓，资金潜力正在逐渐衰竭。社保专户属于典型的风险厌恶型资金，灵活进退才能在这个圈子里屹立不倒，他们中的精英者正在把“部队”从银行股向下一波行情的主战场调遣。

Stock index after nine months later Friday back to 2400 points above,From the Chinese stock certificate report reporter investigation of the situation,"villagers"Really it's a big help.Since last December until this week,Some of the social security fund position increased from forty percent to more than sixty percent.however,Social security fund stock position limit is usually seventy percent,This means that"XiangDang"Is close to ManCang,Potential funds is gradually failure.Social security only door belongs to the typical risk averse fund,Agile a can not stand in this circle,They are the cream of the person"forces"From the bank shares down a wave of market the main battlefield maneuver.

　　社保专户大胆出手 Social security only door boldly make moves

　　“最近几年，也就近一个月过得最舒坦。”社保专户基金经理高仁（化名）已不像两个月前那样如狼狩猎般紧盯盘面异动，而是把更多时间用于研究上市公司。用他的话说，“这行情就是蓝筹股估值修复，再清楚不过，盯盘反而容易引起内心躁动，踏错节奏。”

"In recent years,Also near a month had the most comfortable."Social security fund manager GaoRen only door(alias)Has not like two months ago that like a Wolf hunting, staring moved disk,But the more time for research the listed company.In his words,"This quotation is a blue chip stock valuations repair,To clear,Stare disc but it is apt to cause the restless heart,Misstep rhythm."

　　高仁的社保专户规模不小，股票仓位是在去年12月初开始迅速提升。之前，他的仓位降至四成左右，目前的股票仓位距离该社保专户规定的股票仓位上限不到十个百分点。高仁透露，不少社保专户去年12月都有加仓举动，一些在11月还忍受着账面亏损煎熬的社保专户，随着反弹行情的启动以及仓位的提升，业绩迅速转正，在2012年底交出了一份成绩还算过得去的答卷。

GaoRen social security only door large,The stock position is in December last year beginning rapid promotion.before,His position down to forty percent,The current stock positions from the social security only door prescribed limit stock position is less than ten percent.GaoRen revealed,Many social security only door last December to add all warehouse move,Some in the November also endure suffering paper losses of social security only door,With rallies start and the ascension of the position,Performance quickly become a full member,In the end of 2012 provided a result will be get by far.

　　“这轮行情主要买的就是银行、地产股。”高仁边说边看了看行情系统中的自选股，一页翻下来，银行、券商、地产股占据大多数，个别电子、消费股更像是不合群的另类。

"This wheel market main buy is bank/With property."GaoRenBian said side looked at the market system of voluntary shares,One page turn down,The bank/brokers/Occupy most of the sector,Individual electronic/Consumption share more like asocial alternative.

　　社保专户基金经理都有着极其敏感的市场神经。高仁说，专户特别是社保专户基金经理，最近几年被A股折磨的程度远超任何一位公募基金经理。“我们做的是绝对收益，在市场单边下跌时也得为社保、年金等重要客户赚钱。业绩一旦出现较大波动，就得被客户追究：或是电话询问，或是上门讨要说法。而且社保对于基金经理投资水平的要求极高，一旦净值下跌到某个范围，就要写报告说明情况甚至被迫暂停交易。”

Social security account fund managers have extremely sensitive market nerve.GaoRen said,Only door especially social security account fund manager,In recent years was A shares the degree of suffering far above any A public offering fund manager."We do is absolute income,In the market unilateral falls also get for social security/Pension and other important customers to make money.Performance once appear larger fluctuation,Will be shall be investigated for customers:Or telephone inquiry,Or the door for saying.And for the social security fund manager investment level of high demand,Once the net worth fell to a certain range,Will write a report shows a case and even forced to suspend the transaction."

　　“下跌5%都够呛了，更别说10%。”高仁说，这些磨炼让他在不看好大市时，即使股票再好也不敢多买。这段时间的高仓位，可以说是高仁憋了几年才敢出手的大胆之作。而如今浮盈不断累积，敏锐的感觉在提醒他，该卖票了。

"It is the 5% decline,Don't even say 10%."GaoRen said,These trial let him in the value when,Even if the stock again good can't buy more.This period of high position,Can be said to be GaoRen held for years to make a bold dare move.And now the float to accumulate,Keen sense in remind him,This ticket the.

　　资金流入渐放缓 Capital inflows gradually slow

　　从1949点反弹以来，上证综指在两个月里阔步前行440多点。

From 1949 points since the rebound,The Shanghai composite index in two months stride forward more than 440 points.

　　在社保专户基金经理看来，行情“分水岭”就在眼前。“银行股的市盈率恢复到8倍左右，估值修复行情就大致告一段落。”高仁分析，上证综指反弹至2400点至2450点一线，估值修复行情会休整，而成长股会存在更多机会。对于社保专户而言，灵活进退才是生存之道，不思变通者会被市场淘汰。

In the social security fund manager seems only door,market"watershed"In the present."Bank shares p/e ratio back to about eight times,Valuations repair in the end."GaoRen analysis,The Shanghai composite index rebound to 2400 points to 2450 points in a line,Valuations repair quotation will rest,And growth stock there will be more opportunities.As for social security only door,Agile is a way of living,Don't think the accommodation will be washed out by the market.

　　高仁表示，社保专户近期还有一些资金流入，但社保资金通常是分批进入专户，并没有短期内增加大量资金抄底的先例。市场已经逐步接近高仁预期行情生变的点位，兑现些持仓，计划下一轮行情的布局，是他近期着重考虑的问题。

GaoRen said,Social security account recently and some capital inflows,But social security fund is usually split into account,And no short-term increase a large amount of money to copy the bottom precedent.The market has been gradually close to the point GaoRen expected quotation happen,To cash some position,Plan the next round of the layout of the market,He is considered the recent problems.

　　沪指周五早盘整理，午后在银行股带动下迅速攻下2400点关口。但私募老吴却在收复关键点位的时刻，卖了些金融股和地产股，主要原因就是银行股冲得太猛心里不踏实。“突破2400点后，成交量没有明显放大。而目前点位还需解放2011年10月以来的套牢盘，以及应对反弹以来积累的大量获利盘，在春节前这个点位压力甚大。”

On Friday, boomed earlier arrangement,Afternoon in bank shares quickly brought under attack at 2400 points.But private LaoWu was recovered the key point of the moment,Sell some financial sector and,The main reason is that bank shares impact too fierce heart ungrounded."Breakthrough after 2400 points,Volume was not significantly enlarged.But at present still need to point since October 2011 liberation of hung up plate,And deal with the accumulation of a large number of profit rebound since disk,Before the Spring Festival this point pressure is very great."

　　老吴指出，行情推动需要资金活水。引爆本轮反弹的“活水”主要来自去年11月从白酒股出逃的资金，而如今资金大规模集结于金融股之中，“活水”又凝结成了“冰”，使得市场流动性又现枯竭征兆。倘若2400点一线金融股中的获利盘能够大量兑现，虽然会触发股指调整，但也会给A股后续反弹腾挪出更多资金，而这些资金是获利资金，操作上将更为大胆。老吴与高仁的看法有异曲同工之妙。

LaoWu pointed out that,Market promote need money running water.Detonating this rebound"Running water"Mainly from November last year from liquor stock funds run away,Now capital mass was centred in financial stocks,"Running water"And condensation became"ice",That makes the market liquidity and dry now sign.If 2400 point a line of financial profit plate can be a lot of cash,Although will trigger point adjustment,But also can give a-share subsequent rebound move STH to make out more money,These funds are funds profit,Operation will be more bold.LaoWu and GaoRen opinion that go the other way around it.

　　三条线勾勒“分水岭” Three line to draw the outline of"watershed"

　　中国证券报记者根据社保、公募、私募、游资等的相关规定及操作习惯，捋出三条线划分本轮行情的“分水岭”——沪指2400点。高仁说，2400点的左侧是银行股为主线的估值修复行情，而右侧极可能是成长股为主导的结构型小牛市。

China's stock certificate report reporter according to social security/Public offering/private/Hot money and the relevant provisions of the and operation habit,Raked out three lines divided this quotation"watershed"- boomed in 2400 points.GaoRen said,The left side of the 2400 points is a bank as the main stock valuations repair quotation,And the right is most likely growth stock for leading structural small bull market.

　　第一条是“持仓红线”。这波行情中表现最好的是银行股，不少公募基金在去年12月以来陆续将银行股仓位超配至20%以上。虽然银行股价值仍受到市场肯定，但作为重仓品种的银行股大涨，对于基金经理而言也是一种烦恼。由于有着基金持有单只重仓股的市值占净值的比例不能超过10%的法规“红线”，假设某基金在去年12月初持有民生银行(600016,股吧)的市场占净值比例在10%以内，而此后一个多月民生银行上涨60%，而其余股票涨幅及基金整体规模增速均落后于民生银行涨幅，该基金经理就不得不卖出民生银行。深圳一位基金经理近期就遇到了类似烦恼。一只重仓股反弹以来上涨一倍有余，但这只心爱的股票只能在风控部门的提醒下不断被减持。

The first one was"Position red line".This wave of market best is a bank shares,Many public offering fund since December last year in the bank stock positions super match to more than 20%.Although Banks share value are still subject to market sure,But as heavy warehouse varieties of bank shares,For fund managers is also a kind of worry.Because have funds hold single heavy warehouse stock accounts for the proportion of the market value of the net value of not more than 10% of laws and regulations"Red line",If the fund in December last year hold minsheng bank(600016,guba)The percentage of equity market accounted for within 10%,And since then more than a month minsheng bank rose 60%,And the rest of the stock rose and fund the whole scale growth are behind the minsheng bank or,The fund manager will have to sell minsheng bank.Shenzhen a fund manager recently had a similar trouble.A heavy warehouse stock rebound rise since a times more,But this only beloved stock only in the wind control department constantly reminded by the reduction.

　　第二条是“分红线”。行情反弹超过20%，一些私募账户已逐渐盈利，做得好的账户绝对收益超过20%的可能性非常大。从目前业内流行的分红规则来看，账户盈利超过20%即需要分红，此时需要卖出部分股票。

The second was"Bonus line".Market rebound more than 20%,Some private account has gradually earnings,A good account absolute income more than 20% of the possibility is very large.From the current industry popular bonus rules to see,Account profit more than 20% which need to share out bonus,The need to sell part of the stock.

　　第三条是“归零线”。这波行情中，不少银行股股价接近翻倍。有些稳健的投资者有一个习惯，就是股票翻倍时喜欢把股票先卖掉一半，这样成本归零，以后每年坐享分红。而银行股的分红水平普遍较高，在这个点位如此操作的投资者自然不少。

Article 3 is"Zero line".This wave of market,A lot of bank shares close to double.Some prudent investors have a habit,Is the stock turn times like the stock to sell half,Such cost to zero,A year after sitting on dividends.And bank shares dividends generally high level,At this point the natural operation so many investors.

　　股市总是变化莫测，社保资金的仓位接近上限并非意味着行情就此终结。因为目前的市场人气已经调动起来，资金有望持续流入。特别是随着证券市场深化与发展，融资等杠杆工具也能够充分放大做多资金量。有分析人士指出，大量资金选择了杠杆操作进场。现阶段，投资者更需要关注的是，市场上涨的基石是否牢固，经济增长的持续性是否存在，企业盈利是否在好转。

The stock market is always unpredictable,Social security fund position close to the limit does not mean quotation on the end.Because the current market popularity has aroused,Money is expected to continue to flow into.Especially along with the deepening and development of the securities market,Financing lever tools can also fully amplification do there is more.Analytic personage points out,A large amount of money to choose the leverage approach.At present,Investors are more concern is,The foundation of the market's upward whether firmly,Economic growth whether there are persistent,Enterprise profit is on the mend.