中国经济经历30多年高速增长，银行提供的信贷支持功不可没，但是到现在，银行体系独大的格局也制约了经济结构的弹性，一旦政府调控经济，收紧银根，银行的信贷配给手段会加剧经济下滑幅度。在过去2-3年人民银行大力提倡社会融资总量概念，其实默认了传统信贷之外的表外融资渠道的重要性。从更早期的商业银行向中高端客户提供利率更高的理财产品开始，到现在形形色色的表外融资渠道不断拓展，我们正在经历中国版的金融脱媒。多年以前，这个名词只存在教科书里，现在它已经不经意间来到了我们身边。

China's economic growth through more than 30 years,The bank provide credit support play an important role,But until now,The bank system's dominant pattern also has restricted the economic structure of the elastic,Once the government regulation economy,Tightening monetary policy,The bank credit rationing means will aggravate the economic downturn amplitude.In the past 2-3 years of people's bank of total social financing strongly advocated the concept,In fact the traditional credit default outside watch outside the importance of the financing channels.From early on in the commercial bank to high-end customers interest rates higher financial products start,Now all manner of off-balance-sheet financing channels continue to expand,We are going through Chinese version of the financial disintermediation.Many years ago,The term exists only in the textbook,Now it has inadvertently came to our side.

　　先来鸟瞰中国影子银行的现状和趋势。影子银行的概念是在2007年由美国太平洋(601099,股吧)资产管理公司的执行董事麦卡利提出，2011年金融稳定理事会又对影子银行从广义和狭义两个层面进行定义。在中国，影子银行指游离于传统商业银行体系之外从事与银行类似的融资服务，但不受监管或能规避严格商行监管的金融实体。主要包括三个层面，以银行理财为代表的银行表外业务系统（银行理财产品、委托贷款等）、非存款类金融机构（信托、小贷、担保公司）、广泛的民间融资系统（地下钱庄等）。影子银行在过去几年经历了高速发展。据估计现在我国影子银行存量规模已经超过了贷款总规模的1/3。 从新增量观察，典型的影子银行部门（委托贷款、信托贷款、企业债券融资）的新增量占2012年全社会融资总量的31%，而在2010-2011年这个数据为16.9%和22.3%。这也能够解释为什么2012年银行新增人民币贷款仅增长了10%的水平，但全社会融资总量却保持了23%的高速增长。

A bird's eye view of the first Chinese shadow Banks present situation and trend.The concept of shadow Banks in 2007 by the United States Pacific(601099,guba)Asset management company's executive director Michael kari put forward,In 2011, the financial stability board and shadow Banks from broad sense and narrow sense two levels defined.In China,Shadow Banks refers to free from the traditional commercial bank system in and outside the bank similar financing services,But not regulated or to avoid to strict business supervision of financial entities.Mainly includes three aspects,To bank financing, as a representative of the bank's off-balance sheet business system(Bank financing products/Entrust loan, etc)/The deposit financial institutions(trust/Small credit/Guarantee company)/A wide range of folk financing system(Underground Banks, etc).Shadow Banks in the past few years has experienced rapid development.It is estimated that now China's shadow Banks stock scale has been more than a third of the total loan scale. New incremental observation,Typical of the shadow banking sector(Entrust loan/Trust loans/Corporate bond financing)New increment of the whole society in 2012 31% of the total financing,In 2010-2011 the data for 16.9% and 22.3%.This can explain why 2012 new Banks RMB loans increased by only 10% of the level,But the whole society but keep the total amount of financing growth of 23%.

　　究其原因，2009年以来，制造业部门进行了大规模的产能扩张，信贷需求旺盛。但从2010年开始的宏观紧缩政策导致银行信贷供给的紧张，民营企业在正式的银行体系内无法得到足够的资金支持，只能求助于影子银行体系。从信贷供给方来看，中国长期实行金融抑制政策，导致存款利率被人为压低，叠加上过去几年的通胀上行环境，实际利率实际为负，信贷供给的主力——居民部门有动力把存款从银行体系向其他更高回报的部门转移。另外，银行部门苦于严格的监管指标，也通过各种理财产品、银证合作、银信合作等形式来承接这些从表内转移出的存款。整体来看，过去几年，影子银行体系的高速增长是利率管制和金融脱媒背景下的必然产物。影子银行体系的发展推动利率市场化的形成和为民营资本的发展创造条件。

Investigate its reason,Since 2009,Manufacturing sector on a large scale production capacity expansion,Credit demand.But since 2010 macro tightening lead to bank credit supply tension,Private enterprises in the formal banking system inside do not have enough money to support,Can only turn to the shadow banking system.To see from credit supply,China's long-term financial repression policy,Lead to deposit the artificially low interest rates,On the stack in the past few years inflation upward environment,The actual real interest rates for the negative,The main credit supply, residents departments have the power to money from bank system to other higher returns department transfer.In addition,The banking sector suffer from strict supervision index,Also through the various financial products/Silver-colored card to cooperation/Such forms of cooperation to undertake these from the deposit in the table, transfer.The whole,In the past few years,The shadow banking system growth is of interest rates and financial disintermediation the inevitable outcome of the background.The shadow banking system to promote the development of market-oriented interest rate formation and for the development of private capital to create conditions.

　　金融脱媒是对利率管制和信贷总量管制等计划性手段的突围甚至颠覆，并且开始对资本市场产生深远的影响：

Financial disintermediation is of interest rates and credit amount control planning means of breakout and even subversion,And began to produce a far-reaching impact on the capital market:

　　首先，它的变化总量和趋势会影响宏观经济的资金面和资本市场的资金供应，对资产配置有直接的影响。2010-2012年是资产配置中宏观变量结构发生巨大变化的阶段，主要原因是2009年四万亿投资之后，银行正规信贷规模从4万亿跳跃到8万亿以上的级别，随后带来商业银行去杠杆过程，之后三年以各种影子银行渠道为代表的金融创新填补了资金不足的缺口，商业银行本身就是表外业务井喷的积极参与者。我们之前习惯于用信贷增速和货币增速等传统指标判断经济和股市的周期性先导指标，但是发现信贷和货币增速不断下探过程中，通胀率依然不低，部分产业的过热还阶段性发生。政府在2012年底对社会融资总量和融资成本的表述已经发生了微妙的重大变化，投资者的确要开始重视社会融资总量中非传统信贷部分的边际效应，而不是刻舟求剑。

First of all,It changes the total amount and the trend will affect macroeconomic financing area and capital market money supply,To have a direct effect on asset allocation.2010-2012 is in the asset allocation macro variable structure changed stage,The main reason is that in 2009 after the investment,Bank normal credit scale from 4 trillion jump to more than 8 trillion level,Then bring commercial bank to leverage process,After three years in a variety of shadow banking channel as a representative of financial innovation to fill the gap of insufficient funds,Commercial bank itself is off-balance sheet business blowout active participants.Before we used to use credit growth and monetary growth index of traditional economy and stock market judgment of periodic lead indicators,But found that credit and monetary growth without constantly in the process,Inflation is still not low,Part of the industry's overheating also stage occurred.The government at the end of 2012 the total amount of social financing and financing cost statement has been subtle significant change,Investors really need to start pay attention to social financing total china-africa traditional credit part of the marginal effect,Not KeZhouQiuJian.

　　其次，它对与宏观经济高度相关的资产的成长性和短期波动产生影响，因为扣除传统信贷之后，以影子银行为代表的金融脱媒对经济周期产生的边际效应会非常巨大。由于监管的原因，中国银行(601988,股吧)业正在引入巴塞尔协议等工具加大银行的风险控制（从监管理念上探讨这件事的合理性和中外背景差异不是本文的宗旨），传统的信贷规模相对稳定，这才给影子银行提供了沃土。这部分融资在宏观经济中的边际效应可以放大数倍，是资金价格的最终决定者，决定着经济的增量变化。与宏观高度相关的资产与金融脱媒方向的关联度也被放大。我们的行业配置也需要密切研究这一新因素。

secondly,It to and macro economy highly relevant asset growth and short wave impact,Because after deduction of traditional credit,To shadow Banks as a representative of financial disintermediation in economic cycle to produce the marginal effect will be very great.Due to the reason of supervision,The bank of China(601988,guba)Industry are introduced, such as the Basel agreement tools increase the bank's risk control(From a regulatory idea about it and the rationality of the Chinese and foreign background difference is not the aim of this paper),The traditional credit scale relatively stable,This ability to shadow Banks offer fertile soil.This part of the financing in the macro economic marginal effect can be enlarged several times,Money is the final determinant of price,Determines the economic incremental change.And macro highly related assets and financial disintermediation direction correlation has also been enlarged.Our industry configuration also need to study the new factors closely.

　　最后，它本身也影响银行、证券、保险、信托等金融子行业以及房地产等具有资产属性的行业的定价和行业竞争格局，对于特定行业的周期分析和盈利前景需要高度关注这一新变量。简而言之，银行的报表将马上经历结构性变化，非银行类金融机构的占比会提高，整体发展前景更好一些。房地产等资产的融资空间可以进一步多元化，2013年融资成本也有下降的趋势，具有良好投融资战略的公司的成长性可以更加看好。

finally,It is also influence the bank/securities/insurance/Trust, and other financial fruit industry and real estate assets has attributes of the industry's pricing and industry competition pattern,For a specific industry cycle analysis and earnings outlook to pay special attention to the new variable.In short,The bank statement will immediately through structural changes,The non-bank financial institutions for class than will improve,The overall development of better prospects.Real estate and other assets can be further diversified financing space,In 2013, financing cost also has the trend of decline,Has a good investment strategy of the company's growth can be more valued.