受制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）利好提振，上周五国内期市涨多跌少，股指期货创本轮反弹新高，化工产品、农产品多数品种走势上扬，基本金属则走势疲软。分析人士认为，经济平稳回暖为股市、期市上涨奠定基础，涨势在2月有望延续。

By the manufacturing purchasing managers' indices(PMI)Bullish boost,Last Friday the domestic spot up much less fall,Stock index futures and rebound this record,Chemical products/Most of the varieties of agricultural products rising trend,Base metals is a weak trend.Analysts believe that,Steady economic warmer for the stock market/Lay the foundation for the rise in spot,Rise in February is expected to continue.

中美经济继续好转 China and the United States economy continues to improve

　　上周五，国家统计局公布，1月官方制造业PMI为50.4%，比上月回落0.2个百分点，连续4个月保持在50%以上；1月汇丰PMI终值也新鲜出炉，52.3%的数值创下两年新高。

Last Friday,The national bureau of statistics announced,January official manufacturing PMI is 50.4%,A drop of 0.2% than last month,For four months to stay above 50%;January HSBC PMI final value is also a fresh,52.3% of the value set a record for two years.

　　“总体来看，官方和汇丰PMI均处于50%以上，经济扩张趋势并未改变。”北京中期宏观经济分析师牛秋乐认为，官方与汇丰PMI数据呈现一定反差，官方PMI的小幅走低主要受季节性及政策性因素影响，而汇丰PMI的强劲回升则为市场提供更多信心。“周五国内期市先是跟随官方数据走低，在汇丰PMI公布后则出现普涨，市场表现反映了当前投资者的乐观心态”。

"overall,Officials and HSBC PMI are in more than 50%,Economic expansion trend has not changed."Beijing medium-term macroeconomic analyst NiuQiuLe think,The official and HSBC PMI data present a certain contrast,The official PMI's small low is mainly affected by seasonal and policy factors,And HSBC PMI strong rebound is to offer more for the market confidence."On Friday the domestic spot first official data with low,In HSBC PMI promulgation have general goes up,Market performance reflects the current investors optimistic state of mind".

　　中期研究院宏观策略分析师李莉表示，从官方PMI的库存指数来看，企业目前的生产积极性大为提高，开始主动补库存，同时产品销售也较为旺盛，使得产成品库存迅速下降。同时，企业购进价格、采购量指数的回升反映了企业预期向好，并由此展开了扩大生产经营的活动。企业持续的补库存将对日后大宗商品的价格走势形成支撑。

Research in the middle of the macro strategy analyst li li said,From the official PMI stock index to see,Enterprise current production enthusiasm greatly improved,Beginning active fill inventory,At the same time the product sales is relatively strong,Make manufactured inventory fell rapidly.At the same time,Enterprise purchase price/Purchase quantity index, reflect the enterprise expected better off,And then spread to expand production and operation activities.Enterprise continuous fill inventory will in the future commodities price trend development of support.

　　美国劳工部上周五也公布数据显示，1月份美国非农就业人数增加15.7万人，同期失业率则上升至7.9%。去年12月份经修正后为增加19.6万人，去年11月份经修正后为增加24.7万人。修正后数据意味着，去年11月份和12月份非农就业人数比此前初步报告的数字高出12.7万人。

The U.S. labor department announced last Friday and data display,In January the non-agricultural employment increase 157000 people,The unemployment rate rose to 7.9%.December revised for an increase of 196000,Last November to increase the revised 247000 people.Revised data means,Last November and December non-agricultural employment than the previous preliminary report number more than 127000 people.

　　“美国非农就业数据表明，就业市场在去年年末已经出现了实质性改善。”李莉认为，近期美国消费、收入数据均表现强劲，这使得美国“就业增长—收入增加—消费回升”的正向经济增长力量进一步强化，步入健康复苏轨道的美国经济也将为日后中国外需的恢复提供支撑。

"The United States non-farm employment data shows,The job market in the end of last year has been a substantial improvement."Lily think,A recent American consumption/Income data are strong,This makes the United States"Employment growth - income increase - consumption picks up"The positive economic growth to further enhance the strength,Into the health recovery track of the U.S. economy will also be in the recovery of China's overseas market demand to provide support.

期市仍有上行空间 Spot still have ascending space

　　安信期货研究所所长马春阳认为，中国PMI领先指标和美国非农就业数据都显示中、美经济在继续复苏，为国内企业盈利以及补库存创造了良好的环境，整体有利于国内股票市场与期货市场，预计后期与经济复苏密切相关的股指期货、金属、能源化工品种仍有继续上升的空间。

Anxi futures institute director MaChunYang think,China PMI leading indicators and the United States non-farm employment data display/Beauty economy continues to recovery,For the domestic enterprise profit and fill inventory to create a good environment,The whole is helpful to the domestic stock market and futures market,With the economic recovery is expected late closely related futures/metal/Energy chemical species there are still continue to rise space.

　　格林期货研发培训中心高级总监李永民则表示，中美实体经济缓慢复苏将支撑国内期货价格，但中国PMI仍维持在荣枯线附近且有所波动，说明复苏之路仍然曲折，美国失业率微升表明中国出口增速短期内难以迅速恢复。他预计，2月国内期市总体将维持振荡走高行情，但短期内单边上涨的可能性不大。

Green futures research training center LiYongMin senior director, said,The entity economic slow recovery will support the domestic futures price,But China PMI remains in the vicissitude line and near to wave,That the way to recovery is still twists and turns,The unemployment rate edged shows that China's export growth in the short term is difficult to recover quickly.He is expected to,February domestic spot overall will remain oscillation go high prices,But in the short term unilateral rise is unlikely.