在连续多日的反复震荡之后，2月1日A股市场再次高歌猛进，上证综指一举突破2400点大关，全周再现五连阳景象。

In the continuous days after repeated shocks,February 1 A share market to rapid development,The Shanghai composite index to breach the 2400 mark for the action,The whole week reappearance five even Yang scene.

　　对市场如火如荼的走势早已不安的资深基金经理有些懵了，防备市场调整而打算减持的投资人士难以淡定了，许多普通投资者更是直呼“看不懂了”。

At the height of the market trend of senior fund manager has upset some into a cocked hat,Guard against market adjustment and intend to reduce their holdings of investment is difficult to calm the people,Many ordinary investors is call"Look not to understand".

　　“不是说"88魔咒"快来了吗？我今天还卖掉了大部分股票，不会就这样踏空了吧？”一位入市不久的年轻股民略带懊恼地对中国证券报记者说。

"Not to say that"88 spell"Come??Today I also sold most of the stock,Will not step empty it?"A city near young people with a slightly annoyed the stock certificate report reporter said.

　　“88魔咒”指的是，当公募基金的股票仓位达到或接近88%左右时，由于后续“弹药”不足，股指很可能出现调整或者掉头向下。在市场实际运行中，这一现象已多次上演，让不少投资者信服。

"88 spell"Refers to the,When the public offering fund stock positions at or close to 88%,Due to the subsequent"ammunition"shortage,Stock index is likely to adjust or turn down.In the actual operation of the market,This phenomenon has repeatedly stage,Let many investors believed.

　　不过，目前许多基金经理对股市热情不减，他们认为，市场参与者的多元化，板块行情的分化，都有可能淡化“88魔咒”的冲击。这一点，在中国证券报记者的采访过程中，也得到了证券公司、私募基金、保险资管等方面人士的呼应。只不过，与公募基金相比，这些机构大多没能站在本轮行情的风口浪尖，在一番奋力追赶之后，目前，他们开始走稳健路线，不愿再逢高加仓。

but,At present many fund manager in the stock market the passion flesh,They think,The diversity of market participants,Plate market differentiation,May fade"88 spell"impact.this,In China stock certificate report reporter's interview process,Also got a securities company/Private equity fund/Insurance endowment tube etc the echo of people.just,Compared with public offering fund,Most of these institutions can't stand in this quotation in the teeth of the storm,In a after struggling to pursue,At present,They began to go steady route,Don't want to meet high positions.

基金经理：卖了又买 Fund manager:Sell and buy

　　“我们有基金经理前一阵减仓卖掉了一些股票，但这几天又买回来了。”上周五，一家基金公司人士告诉中国证券报记者。他表示，近期公司投研部门整体都很乐观。虽然意识到市场再往上走需要大量的后续资金，而股票基金的仓位前一周就达到了84%，但他们从多个角度来衡量，认为反弹行情还没有结束。

"We have a fund manager before a minus warehouse sell some shares,But this a few days and to buy back."Last Friday,A fund company sources told reporters China stock certificate report.He said,Recent research department for the company overall are very optimistic.Although aware of the market to go up need a lot of follow-up funds,And the stock fund a week before the position reached 84%,But they from many Angle to measure,Think rallies is not over yet.

　　“我们的投资总监认为，基金仓位走高具有一定的风向标意义，但并不会对行情演进形成很强的约束，首先就是公募基金现在的资产规模占A股市场流通市值的比重有所弱化，要想凭一己之力决定行情的发展还真是比较难的事情。”上述人士说道。

"Our investment director think,Fund positions go high has certain vane significance,But will not to quotation evolution form strong constraint,The first one is public offering fund assets now of a-share market circulation market value is the proportion of weakening,For one person to force to the development of the market is a difficult thing."The above said people.

　　不过，他也告诉中国证券报记者，在去年底以来的这一轮来势迅猛的反弹行情中，公募基金还算步调比较快的，虽然一些公司和基金经理在早期有些迟疑和旁观，但基本上在去年12月后期就挥戈而上，大举加仓了。总体而言，有经验的基金经理可能在此次反弹中“一个都不少”。

but,He also told reporters China stock certificate report,At the end of the round since breaks the rapid rebound in the market,Public offering fund will also calculate the pace is fast,Although some companies and fund managers in the early some backwardness and look on,But basically in late December and will lead troops to battle,Massive and storehouse.In general,Experienced fund managers may be in the rebound in"A lot".

　　“你猜怎么着？12月中旬我们去北京路演，与一些保险公司聊起来，好像仓位都很低甚至空仓，而且不少公司在股市涨了一点后，就赎回了很多基金，他们还悲观着呢！”前不久，在上海一家基金公司的年度策略会议上，一位年轻的基金经理面对中国证券报记者，兴致勃勃地说道。

"Guess what?By the middle of December we go to Beijing road shows,And some insurance company chat up,Like positions are very low and empty bin,And a lot of companies in the stock market rose after a bit,Just bought a lot of fund,They also is pessimistic!"Not long ago,In Shanghai, a fund company's annual strategy meeting,A young fund managers face of China's stock certificate report reporter,Cheerfully said.

　　这位基金经理兴致高昂，一是他去年着手管理的一只股票型

The fund manager with high enthusiasm,One is the last year, he set about management of a stock type基金净值 Fund net value乘势而上，已从亏损实现翻身；二是作为公司的首席策略分析师，他从去年9月底开始认定经济见底，推荐加仓和配置汽车、地产、银行等早周期板块，得到了公司内外的一致认可。

Takes advantage of a favorable situation on,Already from loss realize turn over;2 it is to serve as the company's chief strategy analyst,From the end of September last year he began to see that the economic base,Recommend and warehouse and the configuration of the car/Real estate/Banks and other early period plate,Got inside and outside the company consistent approval.

　　“我早就说过，我们做策略研究不要去想太多政策啊、调控啊这些外在的东西，关键是把经济运行的基本态势把握住。这个核心弄清楚了，其他的如政策会怎样体现，我们心里自然而然就有数了。”这位基金经理侃侃而谈。

"I would have said,We do not to think too much strategy research policy ah/Regulation: the external things,The key is the basic situation of economic operation of the hold.The core make clear,Other such as policy will be how to embody,Our hearts naturally with respect to know."The fund manager speaking.

　　“去年9月底我已认识到经济真的见底了，PMI数据逐月回升，发电量增速日见提高，铁路货运量也明显回升。那个时候还有很多人在找各种理由不认可这个趋势，要么说是季节性的波动，要么认为是短期的政策刺激所致，难以维持。实际上研究宏观面的人都应该很清楚，经济运行有它自己的惯性，一旦触底之后，短期内是不可能又掉头向下的，比方说，在建工程不会建了一半就停掉，它至多会因为春节而缓一缓，但春节过了还会继续开工，这就是一个新的经济周期的开始。而我们看看中国的宏观经济史，30年来没有哪一个经济周期是短于三个季度的。所以我说了，2013年一季度结束之前我们可以放心加仓，配置品种可以从早周期到化工、机械、水泥等中期品种，因为经济增长必然会延续到那个时候，而通货膨胀还没有恶化。”这位基金经理信心满怀地说。

"At the end of September last year I have come to realize that the economy really see bottom,PMI data month by month picks up,Generating capacity growth became more and more improve,Railway freight volume also rebounded.At that time there are a lot of people are looking for a variety of reasons do not acknowledge this trend,Either say seasonal fluctuations,Or think is caused by short-term policy stimulus,Difficult to maintain.In fact the macroscopic research should be very clear,Economic operation has its own inertia,Once the sole later,In the short term is can't turn down,For instance,Construction engineering can't built half will stop,It will be at most because the Spring Festival and wait,But the Spring Festival will continue to start,This is a new economic cycle begins.And we see China's macro economic history,30 years no economic cycle is short in three quarter.So I said,Before the end of the first quarter of 2013 we can rest assured and warehouse,Configuration varieties from the early period to the chemical industry/mechanical/In the middle of the cement, and other varieties,Because economic growth will continue at that time,But inflation is not worse."The fund manager said with confidence.

　　“我一直对于市场是否具备真正好转的基础心存怀疑，但我也一直认定，市场一旦冲破2150点我将大举加仓。而且我的

"I have been to see if it has really improved market based doubt,But I also have been recognized,The market once break through 2150 points I also add bin.And my重仓股 Heavy warehouse stock数量并不多，持股非常集中，所以我很快就把仓位加上去了，对于反弹还是把握得很到位的。”另一位基金经理说道。

Quantity is not much,Holding very concentrated,So I quickly put the position to add,For a rebound or to hold very in place of."Another fund manager said.

　　面对年轻人的高昂情绪，这家基金公司的投资总监——一位在证券行业已经浸淫15年之久的资深人士表达了他的一些担忧。他认为，现在市场有鸡犬升天的气象，一些概念股和中小盘股炒作得很厉害，这不是一个好现象。正是在这种时候，要提防市场随时可能来临的调整。

In the face of the young man's high emotion,The fund's investment director - one in the securities industry has now 15 years senior personage expressed some of his concerns.He thinks,Now the market is the top of the weather,Some stocks and the small dish stock speculation very badly,This is not a good phenomenon.It is during these times,Beware of the market may come at any time of adjustment.

　　不过，话锋一转，这位投资总监也表示，他不认为反弹行情已经棋到末局，公司预测A股市场今年的高点将达到2700点-2800点，而他个人，则明显倾向于银行、地产等大盘蓝筹板块。

but,A turn of,The investment director also said,He doesn't think rallies have move to the bureau,The company has forecast A share market this year's high will reach 2700 points, 2800 points,And his personal,Is obviously tend to bank/The real estate market, such as blue chip plate.

　　“银行股的估值修复行情我认为还没有走完，因为虽然银行股涨了这么多，但公募基金配置的比例还比较低，此外银行股现在的估值也仍然不高，PE还不到10倍。现在市场里的大股票估值太低，中小盘股票却存在大面积的系统性高估。”这位投资总监总结道。

"The bank stock valuations repair quotation I think is not the end,Because although bank shares rose so much,But public offering fund allocation proportion is relatively low,In addition the bank stock valuations of now is still not high,PE is less than ten times.Now in the market the stock valuation is too low,In the small dish stock has a large area of systemic overvalued."The investment director concluded.

　　“我们也是这样的看法。”上海一家基金公司的人士表示，在经过之前连续的上行之后，估计后市指数上涨的空间和速度难以如之前那样强劲，个股层面也将呈现结构性的分化。

"We are such a view."Shanghai a fund company people said,After continuous rising after before,Estimate the market outlook index rising space and speed to such as strong as before,Stock levels will also present structural differentiation.

　　“我们最看好的仍然是金融股，对银行的看法更好于

"We are still the most promising financial,To bank view in better券商 brokers、保险股票。”这位人士说道。他同时透露，公司里数位股票型基金经理的仓位都已经加到90%以上了。

/Insurance stocks."The people said.He also revealed that,The company digital stock fund manager's position has been added to the above 90%.