今年上半年“热钱”入境的压力在不断增加，而加快城镇化背景下的房地产市场非常有可能成为主攻目标。防微杜渐引导“热钱”流向至关重要 In the first half of this year"Hot money"Entry pressure growing,And to speed up the urbanization under the background of the real estate market have a good chance of becoming main targets.Guide a stitch in time saves nine"Hot money"Flow is very important

　　国家外汇管理局最近发布的数据显示，2012年12月银行代客结售汇出现连续4个月顺差，业内人士由此判断，2013年上半年，我国“热钱”入境的压力很大。相关专家受访中向《瞭望》新闻周刊建议，鉴于国内通胀回降、楼市升势暂遏，货币政策不宜轻易松动，同时可考虑出台股市新规，引导“热钱”流入。

The state administration of foreign exchange recently released data show,In December 2012 the bank guarantee valet appeared for four months surplus,The personage inside course of study this judgment,In the first half of 2013,Our country"Hot money"Entry under a lot of pressure.Relevant experts to surveyed[lookout]Newsweek Suggestions,In view of domestic inflation back down/The property market uptrend temporary applies,Monetary policy should not be loose easily,While considering the stock market new gauge,guide"Hot money"into.

上半年“热钱”压力增加 In the first half of"Hot money"Pressure increase

　　目前，新一轮资金“大转向”已经开始。国内数据显示，2012年12月银行代客结售汇顺差大幅升至543亿美元，结售汇已连续4个月顺差，外汇净流入出现较大反弹；国外方面，美银美林报告称，自2012年6月末以来，投资者从美国国债市场共撤出了60亿美元资金，这一趋势在2013年1月尤为明显。

At present,A new round of capital"to"Has begun to.Domestic data display,In December 2012 the bank valet writtens guarantee surplus greatly to $54.3 billion,Below writtens guarantee already for four months surplus,The net inflow of foreign exchange a big rebound;In foreign,Bank of America merrill lynch report says,Since 2012, since the end of June,Investors from the us Treasury market out of a total of 6 billion dollars,This trend in January 2013 is particularly obvious.

　　此外，有分析称我国外贸数据的大幅波动也与“热钱”有关。在外贸整体低迷的形势下，2012年12月出口数据好得出奇，众多海外投行一度对数据可靠性提出质疑。对此，安邦咨询高级研究员贺军向本刊记者表示，外贸数据的大幅波动很可能与“热钱”有关。外贸企业中不管是外企还是国内企业，都有一些参与过“热钱”的流动，正是大量的热钱交易利用经常项进出，造成进出口激增的假象。

In addition,China's foreign trade data analysis have said fluctuations and also"Hot money"relevant.The overall downturn in the foreign trade of the situation,In December of 2012 export data incredible,Many overseas investment Banks once the data reliability questioned.this,AnBang consulting senior researcher he jun told this reporter said,Foreign trade data fluctuations is likely to be"Hot money"relevant.Foreign trade enterprises whether foreign or domestic enterprises,There are some participated in"Hot money"flow,It is a large amount of hot money using a trade often pass in and out,Cause the appearance of import and export surge.

　　资深外汇专家汤亚键判断，未来3～5个月内，严防“热钱”流入是最重要的事情。

Senior foreign experts ShangYa key judgment,The future 3 ~ 5 months,Take strict precautions against"Hot money"Inflow is the most important thing.

　　“触发"热钱"流入中国，有四大因素：主要经济体"宽货币、低利率"的政策推高全球流动性，欧美金融体系企稳提升市场风险偏好，中国经济实现"软着陆"，人民币资产价格趋势性向上。”尚势投资的投资总监邓维总结说，"热钱"的性质决定了其终究是短期炒作，趁中国这轮经济反弹炒作的可能性非常大。”

"trigger"Hot money"Into China,There are four factors:Major economies"Wide currency/Low interest rates"Policy push up global liquidity,Europe and the United States financial system stabilises improve market risk preference,China's economy to realize"Soft landing",RMB assets price trend upward."It is potential investment investment director DengWei concluded,"Hot money"To the nature of the all is short-term speculation,While China's economic rebound this wheel hype possibility is very large."

楼市或成主攻目标 The property market or into main targets

　　长期跟踪“热钱”流向的广东省社会科学综合开发研究中心主任黎友焕告诉本刊记者，从2012年初到9月中旬，“热钱”呈现流出状态，随后“热钱”逆转流入，“近期更为显著”，此轮“热钱”并没有对股市显示出很大兴趣，而是觊觎国内楼市，尤其是最近一段时间，已经监控到部分“热钱”涌进一线城市房地产。

Long-term tracking"Hot money"The flow of guangdong province social science comprehensive development research center director LiYouHuan told this reporter,From 2012 the year to mid-september,"Hot money"Present state of outflow,then"Hot money"Reverse flows into the,"Recently more significant",The wheel"Hot money"Did not show great interest in the stock market,But pretend to domestic market,Especially in last a period of time,Has been monitoring to part"Hot money"Pour into a line of urban real estate.

　　"热钱"之所以敢出手一线房市，是因为从十八大到中央经济工作会议都已看出，中央推进城镇化，很可能不会对房地产市场进行更严厉的调控。”黎友焕预计，这种趋势将持续到新的房地产调控措施的出台，或者相关政策的变化。

"Hot money"The housing market dare move a line,Because from eighteen to the central economic working conference has been see,The central urbanization,Probably not on real estate market more stringent regulation."LiYouHuan is expected to,This trend will continue to the new real estate regulation measures come on stage,Or relevant policy changes.

　　早在2010年，当时美国实施QE2前后，包括摩根士丹利、高盛、瑞银等众多投行均以不同形式涉足中国房地产业，同期国内30多家大型房企也加紧推进海外融资计划。富兰投资管理公司副总经理、首席策略师杨东辉预计，“此次"热钱"很可能会继续扩大对一线城市房地产的投机活动。一旦发现有"热钱"进入楼市的趋势，可能将不得不出台新一轮的房地产调控措施。”

As early as in 2010,When the United States before and after the implementation of the QE2,Including Morgan Stanley/Goldman sachs/Ubs investment bank and many are different forms of the real estate industry in China,Over the same period over 30 domestic large room enterprise also to promote overseas financing plan.Rich blue investment management company deputy general manager/Chief strategists YangDongHui expected,"the"Hot money"Is likely to continue to expand to a line city real estate speculation.Once found a"Hot money"In the trend of the market,May will have to come a new round of real estate regulation and control measures."

　　回顾此前2007～2008年，以及2010～2011年的通胀周期里，“热钱”涌入所带来的输入型通货膨胀，被广泛认为是推高物价的原因之一。至于“热钱”出逃的节点，黎友焕坦言，“中国资产泡沫不大，"热钱"不会走”。

After reviewing 2007 ~ 2008,And 2010 ~ 2011 years of inflation cycles,"Hot money"Into brought about by the imported inflation,Widely considered to be one of the reasons for the high prices push.As for"Hot money"Escaping node,LiYouHuan said,"China asset bubble is not big,"Hot money"Won't go".

积极引导“热钱”流向 Actively guide"Hot money"flow

　　专家认为，“热钱”尚未大量流入，现在必须未雨绸缪，“尽管中国实施严格的金融监管措施，渴求套利机会的国际"热钱"仍会透过地下钱庄、虚构贸易等多种渠道渗入国内，监管形势不容乐观。”德意志银行曾做过的一个调查发现，内资企业有18%选择进出口贸易作为转移“热钱”的途径，外资企业的相关比例占到23%。

Experts say,"Hot money"Has not flowed in,Now have to save for a rainy day,"Despite China's implementation of strict financial supervision measures,Arbitrage opportunities for international"Hot money"Still through underground/Fictitious trade and other channels into the domestic,Supervision situation is not optimistic."Deutsche bank has done a survey found,Domestic enterprises have 18% choose import and export trade as a transfer"Hot money"way,The foreign capital enterprise relevant proportion accounted for 23%.

　　业内人士建议，做好五方面的工作，以应对“热钱”的冲击：

The personage inside course of study suggest,Do five aspects,In response to"Hot money"impact:

　　其一，相关监管部门应尽快建立一个真正有效的统计体系，明确且真实地反映“热钱”数量。目前，中国的监管框架很难完全监控“热钱”。比如，对贸易项下的“热钱”流动，负责监控“热钱”的是外管局，但监测进出口价格变动的却是中国海关。对于外管局来说，很难去清楚掌握类似“转移定价”的猫腻。

one,The relevant supervisory department should establish a really effective statistical system,Clear and true to reflect"Hot money"number.At present,China's regulatory framework to completely control"Hot money".Such as,In term of trade"Hot money"flow,Responsible for monitoring"Hot money"Is safe,But monitoring import and export price change is China's customs.Safe for it,It's hard to know master similar"Transfer pricing"Issue of.

　　其二，对于异常资金流入保持高度警惕。加大打击和处罚力度。监管部门应对“热钱”流出的主要渠道加强监控，包括虚报价格、虚假合同、延付货款等隐秘方式。

The second,Abnormal capital inflows to keep fully alert.Increase the strike and punishment.Supervision department should"Hot money"The main flow channel to strengthen monitoring,Including any price/False contract/Deferred payment and stealth mode.

　　其三，对贸易融资和跨境贸易货币替代应设立目标值。贸易融资产品创新层出不穷，成为涉外企业的套利工具，跨境贸易货币替代则导致外储骤增，这对我国当前宏观调控、货币政策、外汇管理和国际收支平衡形成挑战。

thirdly,For trade financing and cross-border trade currency substitution shall establish target value.Trade financing product innovation emerge in endlessly,Become the foreign enterprise of tools,Cross-border trade currency substitution is lead to the increased storage,The China's current macroeconomic regulation and control/Monetary policy/Foreign exchange management and the balance of international payments form challenge.

　　其四，合理引导热钱流向，遵循压楼市、控通胀、入股市的思路。在国内经济复苏前提下，“热钱”流入的领域很重要。如果股市持续出台改革措施，基于目前低位，可以合理引导“热钱”流入。更为理想的局面是，如果能在实体经济中开辟出“池子”接受外来资金，让短钱安分地转化为中长期的投资资金，引导“热钱”流入中国经济亟需的领域，将是应对“热钱”的积极思路。

its,Guide rational hot money flow,Follow market pressure/Control inflation/The train of thought of the stock market.In the domestic economic recovery premise,"Hot money"Into the field is very important.If the market continued on reform measures,Based on the low,Can guide rational"Hot money"into.More ideal situation is,If you can in the entity economy hew out"pool"Accept foreign capital,Make short of money into the volatile long-term investment funds,guide"Hot money"Into the Chinese economy are badly in need of field,Will be deal with"Hot money"Positive thinking.

　　其五，打通藏汇于民的通道，可考虑试行外汇保值储蓄。通过外汇保值储蓄，鼓励民间持有外汇，有利于控制央行货币投放的时间成本和对冲成本。(文/《瞭望》新闻周刊记者有之炘)

five,Get through by hidden in people's channel,Can consider the foreign exchange value for savings.Through the exchange value savings,Encourage folk in exchange,To control the central bank's monetary on the time cost and hedge cost.(Article /[lookout]Newsweek reporter has Xin)