艾经纬

YiJingWei

　　2001年，高盛分析师吉姆·奥尼尔提出“金砖四国”概念。2005年又提出了“新钻11国”概念。2011年初，他又认为不能再用传统的“新兴市场”来界定这些国家了，用“成长型市场”也许更为贴切。

In 2001,,Goldman sachs analyst Jim o 'neill put forward"bricks"concept.In 2005, it was put forward"New drill 11 countries"concept.At the beginning of 2011,He thinks can't use the traditional"Emerging markets"To define the country,with"Growth market"Perhaps more appropriate.

　　更让人惊讶的是，吉姆·奥尼尔试图重新定义世界经济增长版图，甚至预测2050年“金砖四国”将主导世界。

More surprisingly,Jim o 'neill tries to redefine the world economic growth territory,Even forecast in 2050"bricks"Will dominate the world.

　　这只是新兴市场得到认同的一个缩影。

This is just emerging markets have a miniature of the identity.

　　很多人预测，中国将在2016~2026 年之间的某个时间超过美国；印度将在2020~2030 年之间超过日本和英国；巴西及墨西哥和印度尼西亚等其他国家将在2050 年超过欧洲大国和日本。

Many people predict,China will between 2016 and 2026 more than the United States at a time;India will be between 2020 and 2030 more than Japan and Britain;Brazil and Mexico and Indonesia and other countries more than 2050 European powers and Japan.

　　太乐观了吧？诸多书籍中只有少数几本对新兴市场的前景保持谨慎，其中之一是乔治·马格努斯的《谁搅动了世界——未来10年，世界经济格局大派位》。

Too optimistic!?Many books only a few this emerging market prospects remain cautious,One of them is George magnus's[Who stirred the world - the next ten years,The world economic pattern big 1 school places allocation].

　　作为曾经的瑞银首席经济学家，乔治·马格努斯见证了新兴市场的崛起，但他在书中保持了清醒。他思考新兴者将重塑世界还是昙花一现？ 他追问，21世纪会是“中国世纪”吗？美国和西方是否真正衰落？新兴经济体如何才算真正崛起？

As once the ubs chief economist,George magnus witnessed the rise of emerging markets,But he kept awake in the book.He thought the emerging world will reshape or a flash in the pan? He asked,The 21st century will be"China's century"??The United States and western really fading?Emerging economies how to just calculate really rise?

　　对很多人来说，金融危机之后，西方世界的衰落正在一步步地变成现实，欧洲陷在债务危机之中迟迟难以脱身。而经济格局的转变正在推动着一场重塑全球力量格局的政治和国家利益的变迁。

For many people,After the financial crisis,The decline of the western world is step by step to become a reality,European trapped in debt crisis was difficult to get away.And the economic structure of the change is to promote a global power structure reshape the political and the interests of the state changes.

　　不过，有关西方世界是否正在衰落以及新兴市场国家是否已经崛起的争论这种热潮似乎正在偏离理性的轨道，并退化为混沌甚至是危险的思潮。

but,The western world is fading and emerging market countries is rising debate this boom seems to be deviating from the rational track,And degenerate into chaos and even dangerous trend.

　　新兴市场国家的崛起并非历史上的头一遭。二战后苏联工业迅猛发展， 20 世纪70 年代欧洲复兴，1980 年后日本经济强大到可以“买下全世界”，1989 年德国统一更是被认为新德国必将削弱整个欧洲联盟，进而撼动整个世界的稳定性。

The rise of emerging market countries is not the first time in history.After the second world war, the Soviet union industry rapid development, In the 1970 s the European Renaissance,1980 years later the Japanese economy to be strong"Bought all over the world",Unification of Germany in 1989 is that new Germany will weaken the entire European Union,And then shake the world stability.

　　但这些年来的现实又是什么呢？美国依然是全球的领头羊。说明以历史直线推断未来和一味关注量化指标的危险，也说明忽略制度和地缘政治背景的危险。

But these years of reality?The United States remains the global leader.Explain the historical line that the future and only pay attention to the danger of the quantitative indicators,Also shows that ignore system and geopolitical risk of background.

　　仅从经济角度而言，金砖四国之中，巴西面临大量热钱流入，币值被推高，出口被削弱，资产泡沫严重；而印度长期面临高额贸易赤字以及通货膨胀；俄罗斯是一个石油资源支撑的国度，如果2015年前后迎来石油供给大繁荣，那么资源红利效应将大大减弱。

Only from the economic perspective,Bricks of,Brazil are plenty of hot money inflows,Currency is pushed high,Export weakened,Asset bubble serious;While India face high long-term trade deficit and inflation;Russia is a petroleum resources to support the country,If around 2015 boom in oil supply,So resources bonus effect will be greatly abate.

　　此外，在经济全球化阶段，在虚拟资本、影子银行大行其道时，外部冲击、国家之间的贸易战争等将影响新兴市场的未来。

In addition,In the economic globalization stage,In a virtual capital/Shadow Banks when popular,External impact/The trade war between countries and will affect the future of emerging markets.

　　乔治·马格努斯认为，在很多情况下，新兴市场国家的发展路径被其倡导者描绘成理想的线性模式，但这显然有悖于历史和现实。

George magnus think,In many cases,Emerging market countries development path are depicted as its advocates the ideal linear model,But this is clearly contrary to the history and reality.

　　至于中国，生在这个国度，有更多的鲜明感受与危机感。

As for China,Born in this country,There are more distinct feeling and crisis.

　　很多乐观的分析认为，中国的人口红利还将释放。但事实上，中国正在逐渐呈现人口老化、生育率低这一趋势，而这无疑将导致实际GDP增长放缓。

A lot of optimism that the analysis,China's population dividend will also release.But in fact,China is gradually present an aging population/The low fertility rate this trend,And this will undoubtedly lead to real GDP growth.

　　此外，摆在中国面前的一道现实难题是——中等收入陷阱。在可预见的将来，金砖经济体的人均财富几乎不可能达到美国的水平。大多数在1960年为中等收入的国家在2008年依然止步不前。

In addition,In the presence of China a reality problem is - middle-income trap.In the foreseeable future,Nuggets economy's per capita wealth is almost impossible to achieve the level of the United States.Most in 1960 for middle-income countries in 2008 still come to a halt.

　　英国《金融时报》首席经济评论员马丁·沃尔夫甚至直言，下一场严重的全球金融危机将源自中国。这不是一个有着十足把握的预测，然而很少有国家能在金融自由化和全球融合之后避免危机，“金融危机发生的机会是均等的”。

British[Financial times]Chief economic commentators Martin Wolf even the truth,The next serious global financial crisis will come from China.This is not a have a grasp of the prediction,However there are few countries in financial liberalization and global integration after avoid crisis,"The financial crisis of the opportunity is equal".

　　历史是跳跃的，充满了非线性结果和随机性行为，金融市场亦是。从拉美到东南亚，确实几无国家能逃离新兴市场的魔咒。

History is jumping,Filled with nonlinear results and random behavior,Financial market is also.From Latin America to southeast Asia,Do a few no country can escape from emerging markets spell.

　　对于金砖国家的未来，我们无法决定黑天鹅来与不来，或者何时到来，但我们心存敬畏，有所认知并有所准备，我想这是在未来最好的安慰。（作者为本报编辑，微博：http://weibo.com/aijingwei）

For the nuggets the country's future,We can't decide black swan to and not to come,Or when to come,But we fear,Have cognitive and prepared,I think this is the best comfort in the future.(The author is our newspaper editor,Micro bo:http://weibo.com/aijingwei)