艾经纬

YiJingWei

　　很多时候，现实与人类的初衷恰恰相反。用来描述金融市场危机，则是，创新不止，危机亦不止。

Most of the time,Reality and human original intention is just the opposite.Used to describe the financial market crisis,is,Innovation more than,Crisis is more than.

　　正如一直在华尔街顶级投行管理风控的理查德·布克斯塔伯在《金融的魔鬼:为什么我们的创新带来的却是危机》一书中感慨——我们努力改善金融市场设计，却导致市场崩溃；我们试图提高金融市场效率，却引入结构性风险；我们设法满足众多的投资欲望，却使投资风险倍增；金融在创新，危机却越来越频繁……

As has been the top Wall Street investment bank management wind control Richard booker tower "in[Financial the devil: why do we bring the innovation is crisis]In his book regrets - we work to improve financial market design,But lead to market collapse;We try to improve the financial market efficiency,But introducing structural risk;We managed to meet many investment desire,But investment risk multiplication;Financial innovation in,Crisis is more and more frequent...

　　难道金融创新存在一个危机必然伴随的魔咒吗？不幸的是，从过去几十年来看确实是这样的。

Is financial innovation there is a crisis inevitable concomitant spell?unfortunately,From the past few decades to see it is true.

　　概括而言，金融创新的产生是投资者风险偏好的提升以及对低成本投资标的的需求。但危机也由此而生。

oerall,Financial innovation is the generation of investor appetite for risk of ascension and the low cost of the subject matter of the investment demand.But the crisis is created.

　　理查德·布克斯塔伯则从微观角度分析了历次金融危机的技术基础，特别是金融创新工具的复杂性和紧耦合性。

Richard booker stass "from the microscopic view, analyzed the basic technology of all previous financial crisis,Especially financial innovation tool complexity and tight coupling.

　　金融创新工具的复杂性，意味着对信息或数据的精确性要求很高，从而导致操作者难以掌握，即便掌握了也难以在市场突发震荡时去调整。这就是导致1987年华尔街股灾的投资组合保险所遇到的尴尬。

The complexity of financial innovation tool,Means of information or data accuracy requirement is very high,Leading to the operator is difficult to grasp,Even if master also with difficulty in the market to adjust a concussion.This is the cause of the crash in 1987, the Wall Street investment portfolio insurance with embarrassment.

　　金融创新复杂性导致的另一个隐患就是来自于交易员或者模型设计者的道德风险。最著名的莫过于1995年震惊全球的巴林银行倒闭事件，该事件就是由该公司驻新加坡的交易员里森引发的。

Financial innovation complexity in another hidden danger is from traders or model of the moral risk of the designer.The most famous than 1995 shocked the global bahrain bank failure event,This event is the company in Singapore's traders by allison.

　　华尔街案例亦是不少。上世纪90年代，杰德尔公司的交易员瑟夫·杰特业绩不佳，为了避免被炒鱿鱼开发出一种交易策略，其实本质上就是改变损益的会计假象。结果直到亏损3.5亿美元才东窗事发。

Wall Street is also a lot of cases.In the 1990 s,Jie del company also traders Clive jet poor performance,In order to avoid being fired developed a trading strategy,In fact is essentially change of accounting profits and losses of the illusion.The results until the loss of $350 million m to come to light.

　　金融创新工具的复杂性从那些让人头晕目眩的数学公式中可见一斑，但我们往往忽略了市场构造的另一个特征——紧耦合，即一个程序的各个组成部分环环相扣，就像装配流水线。

The complexity of financial innovation tool from those who make people dizzy mathematical formula evidenced in,But we often ignore the market structure of another feature - close coupling,That is a program of each part all linked with one another,Like assembly line.

　　金融市场的紧耦合来自于不间断的信息流和对即时流动性难以抑制的需求。紧耦合由于杠杆而更加突出，杠杆又是流动性的直接结果。证券的流动性越高，杠杆可以越高。因此，紧耦合意味着潜在更高的杠杆率。

Financial market close coupling from the uninterrupted flow of information and the instant liquidity can't restrain demand.Tight coupling due to leverage and more outstanding,Leverage is the direct result of liquidity.The higher the stock liquidity,The higher lever can.so,Tight coupling means potential higher leverage ratio.

　　而高杠杆是高流动性和高交易速度的最终祸首，往往在市场突发震荡之时，按照模型设计的保证杠杆合理性的流动性却消失了。

But high lever is high liquidity and high transaction speed at the end of the culprit,Often in the market of sudden shock,According to the model design guarantee lever the rationality of liquidity but disappeared.

　　以2008年夏季的华尔街震荡为例，很多人事后推测是某只量化对冲基金面临保证金的催缴而抛售，进而触发相关量化对冲基金的程序化交易，于是市场上掀起了龙卷风。

In 2008, the summer Wall Street shock as an example,A lot of personnel that after a quantitative hedge funds face margin of calling up and selling,And then trigger related quantitative hedge funds programming trading,So a tornado in the market.

　　那么如何化解金融创新的魔咒呢？

So how to defuse financial innovation spell?

　　除了人类的贪婪与欲望，理查德·布克斯塔伯认为，应当降低市场的复杂性，同时放松紧耦合，而减轻市场紧耦合的最简易方式就是放慢市场运行的速度，降低杠杆率。

In addition to the human greed and lust,Richard booker stass "think,Should reduce the complexity of the market,At the same time to relax close coupling,And reduce market tightly coupled the most simple way is to slow down the speed of market operation,Reduce the leverage ratio.

　　金融危机后，欧美都在去杠杆，美国影子银行去杠杆明显，银行业杠杆率去年就降至7倍。但去杠杆过程既不是一蹴而就，也不是毫无风险。金融市场的去杠杆化就如同一个螺旋，对冲基金之类的高杠杆和紧耦合性，使得一旦出现流动性危机，就会连环触发并且大规模引爆。

After the financial crisis,Europe and the United States are to leverage,The shadow Banks to leverage obviously,Banking leverage ratio fell to 7 times last year.But to lever process is not overnight,Is not without risks.Financial market de-leveraging is like a spiral,Hedge funds and so on high lever and tight coupling,Once made a liquidity crisis,Will serial trigger and large-scale detonated.

　　此外，市场崩溃之后，自然的反应就是加强监管。但加强监管又并非万无一失之策略，有时监管的努力很容易受制于复杂性而引起意想不到的后果，反而会加剧危机。

In addition,Market after the collapse,Natural response is to strengthen supervision.But to strengthen the supervision and the strategy is not foolproof,Sometimes regulatory efforts easily subject to complexity and cause unintended consequences,It will aggravate the crisis.

　　譬如巴塞尔协议Ⅲ要求金融机构提高资本充足率，导致金融机构去杠杆，这意味着很多金融机构要处理高风险的产品，而金融机构的羊群效应，将导致金融市场的大幅波动。

Such as the Basel agreement Ⅲ for financial institutions to improve capital adequacy ratio,Lead to financial institutions to leverage,This means that many financial institutions to deal with high risk products,Financial institutions and the herd behavior,Will lead to financial market fluctuations.

　　也许看起来很绝望，但市场就是这样的，风险总是无孔不钻的，最大的风险正是那些“不可测度”的风险。再全面的监管、再强大的风控也都无法避免风险的发生。

Perhaps looks very despair,But the market is such,Risk is always no hole not drill,The biggest risk is those"Do not measure"risk.Then the comprehensive supervision/Then a strong wind control also can avoid the occurrence of risk.

　　当你读完这篇文章，不知会否想到中国的影子银行，其实这并不是一个高明的创新。当前银行理财、信托产品近乎零违约，谁接最后一棒？影子银行具有天然的脆弱性，当资产价格敏感性特征加大了市场波动，期限错配很容易引发流动性风险。

When you finish reading this article,Don't know will ever thought China's shadow Banks,In fact, this is not a good innovation.The current bank financing/Trust products almost zero default,Who connect the last bar?Shadow Banks has natural vulnerability,When the asset price sensitive feature increased market fluctuation,Maturity mismatch is easy to cause liquidity risk.

　　此外，2010年以来，国内金融产品创新快马加鞭，股指期货、融资融券、伞形信托、ABS、MBS、Reits等金融创新的工具相继出炉，但其实我们也正在打开金融衍生品的魔盒。

In addition,Since 2010,Domestic financial product innovation at top speed,Stock index futures/margin/Umbrella trust/ABS/MBS/Reits and financial innovation tools are one after another,But in fact we are open financial derivatives of the box.

　　既然金融创新是无可逃避的魔咒，那么唯有时刻提防，同时压制人性的贪婪。（作者为本报编辑，微博：http://weibo.com/aijingwei）

Since financial innovation is the inevitable spell,So only time beware of,At the same time suppress greed of human nature.(The author is our newspaper editor,Micro bo:http://weibo.com/aijingwei)