楼市调控加码传言重挫地产股 The property market regulation that extra heavy volumes with property

　　专家表示春节后至5月为政策敏感期 Experts say after the Spring Festival to 5 month for policy sensitive period

　　银行称即便调整也不会影响已经递交的房贷申请 The bank says even if adjustment will not affect has submitted the application for mortgage loans

　　差别化信贷 Differentiation credit

　　2011年1月起，国务院要求各金融机构对房屋贷款实行差别化信贷：对购买首套自住房且套型建筑面积在90平方米以上的家庭（包括借款人、配偶及未成年子女，下同），贷款首付款比例不得低于30%；对贷款购买第二套住房的家庭，贷款首付款比例不得低于60%，贷款利率不得低于基准利率的1.1倍；对贷款购买第三套及以上住房的，贷款首付款比例和贷款利率应大幅度提高，具体由商业银行根据风险管理原则自主确定。

January 2011,The state council asks all financial institutions to implement differentiation credit housing loans:To buy the first set of housing and construction area from putting in more than 90 square meters of the family(Including the borrower/Spouses and minor children,Similarly hereinafter),Loan proportion head shall not be less than 30%;For the loan to buy the second set of housing family,Loan proportion head shall not be less than 60%,Loan interest rate shall be not less than 1.1 times the benchmark interest rate;On loan to purchase the third set and above housing,Loan head proportion and loan interest rate should be increased significantly,According to the concrete by the commercial bank risk management principles independently determine.

　　一则“风声”微博再掀敏感楼市波澜。昨日有微博传言称，近期相关房地产调控政策将出台，目前待选方案有2种，“二套房七成首付+贷款利率为1.3倍”，实施时间未确定。

a"wind"Micro bo to reviving sensitive market waves.Yesterday a micro bo rumors,The recent related real estate regulation policy will be issued,At present there are two solutions to choose,"The second suite seventy percent down payment + loan interest rate is 1.3 times",Implementation of time has not yet been determined.

　　针对这一传闻，多家银行相关业务负责人昨日均表示，“听到风声已经有一段时间”、“目前只能说是传言”，到目前为止尚未接到调整二套房贷政策的通知。上海某区房管局负责人也表示“没听说”。

In this rumor,Many Banks in all related business yesterday said,"Hear the wind has a period of time"/"At present, only rumors",So far has not yet received the second set of housing policy adjustment notice.Shanghai district department of housing management person in charge said"Haven't heard".

　　受上述传闻影响，昨日地产股集体暴跌，招保万金四只地产龙头股齐齐下挫。截至收盘，金地集团(600383,股吧)跌幅超过7%，保利地产(600048,股吧)、招商地产(000024,股吧)和万科A跌幅均超过4%。

Restricted by the hearsay influence,Yesterday with property collective slump,Called the gold four real estate leading shares in qi qi.By the closing,Ltd.gemdale corporation(600383,guba)Dropped more than 7%,Poly real estate(600048,guba)/Investment real estate(000024,guba)And vanke A decline by more than 4%.

　　

房地产调控传言再起 Real estate regulation rumors comeback

　　财联社微博昨日发布消息称：近期相关房地产调控政策将出台，“二套房贷需七成首付（原为六成），而贷款利率为基准利率的1.3倍（原为1.1倍）。”而该微博账号曾于前日发布过“夜间重磅：周四楼市或有政策出台”的微博。

Money - micro bo announced yesterday:The recent related real estate regulation policy will be issued,"The second set of housing need seventy percent down payment(Was sixty percent),And loan interest rate is 1.3 times the benchmark interest rate(Was 1.1 times)."And the micro bo account was in on the day before yesterday"Big night:On Thursday, the property market or policies"Micro bo.

　　据早报记者测算，若二套房贷款利率由目前的1.1倍提高至1.3倍，以一套房贷款20年、100万元的总利息差距在13万元左右。

According to the morning paper reporter estimates,If the second suite loan interest rates from the current 1.1 times to 1.3 times increase,With a suite loan twenty years/1 million yuan of total interest gap in 130000 yuan or so.

　　“（近期）不会出新政策，否则市场会乱掉的。”上海某区房管局市场科负责人表示，现在地方政府刚刚完成换届，即便是全国“两会”后中央政府完成换届，由于人事变动刚刚完成，也不会立即出台有重大影响的调控措施。

"(recent)Not new policy,Otherwise, the market will mess out."Shanghai district department of housing management ShiChangKe person in charge said,Now the local government had just completed shift,Even if is the"lianghui"After the completion of the central government,Due to the personnel changes had just completed,Will not immediately have great impact on the control measures.

　　上海某区房管局负责人在接受早报记者采访时也证实了上述说法。“没听说（要出台新的二套房贷调控措施），而且提高二套房首付比例、调整税率等，也不是房管局的事，限购政策也没听说有新的变化。”该负责人说。

Shanghai district department of housing management in charge in accept morning paper reporter to interview also confirmed that the above statement."Haven't heard(To introduce new measures of two sets of mortgage loans),And improve the second suite down ratio/Adjustment rate, etc,Is not the department of housing management,Purchasing policy also didn't heard about new changes."This person in charge said.

　　“我本人没有听说，都是你们在说，我今天都接了好几个记者的电话了。”全国工商联房地产商会前会长聂梅生昨日称。她同时表示，虽然尚未听说会出台新的调控政策，但就近期的房地产市场而言，不排除出台这类政策的可能。

"I didn't hear that,Are you in the said,Today I have received several reporters call."The national association of industry and commerce real estate chamber of commerce, before NieMeiSheng said yesterday.She also said,Although has not heard that will introduce new regulation policy,But in the real estate market in the near future,Will not rule out the possibility of on this kind of policy.

　　“这类信息不可能让我知道，知道我也不会说。”住建部政策研究中心前主任陈淮表示，二套房贷首付比例原本就是规定的“六成起”，传言的七成也不能算是新政策。

"This information may not let me know,Know that I will not say."Live JianBu policy research center of Chen huai of director said before,Two sets of mortgage down ratio was prescribed"Sixty percent up",Seventy percent of the rumors will not belong to the new policy.

　　

银行称尚未接到通知 The bank says have not receive the notice

　　针对二套房贷收紧的传言，多家银行相关业务负责人昨日表示，到目前为止还未接到相关通知。截至昨日，工农中建交五大国有银行在上海地区实行的二套房房贷政策均与之前保持一致首付不低于六成，基准利率至少上浮1.1倍。

In two sets of mortgage tightening rumors,Many Banks related business person in charge said yesterday,So far has not received related notice.As of yesterday,The workers and peasants of diplomatic relations between the five major state-owned Banks in Shanghai the second suite mortgage policies are consistent with prior down not less than sixty percent,At least 1.1 times the benchmark interest rate rise.

　　“我们也是在年前才听说，监管部门可能会考虑提高二套房贷的首付比例和利率，毕竟相比首套房贷而言，办理二套房贷的客户，非自住或投机性的人可能会多一点。”一受访的银行人士说。

"We are also in the years ago just heard,Regulators will consider increase of two sets of mortgage down payment proportion and interest rates,After all, compared with the first set of housing in,To deal with two sets of mortgage customers,Non self living or speculative may be a bit more."One of the bankers said.

　　“二套房的房贷利率可能会提高。”一大行人士称。 “即便调整也不会影响到已经递交上来的房贷申请。”另一国有大行房贷业务人士称，按照该行以往房贷政策调整的惯例，新的房贷政策一般仅会对新政出台以后递交的房贷申请产生效力。

"The second suite mortgage rates may improve."A big row person said. "Even if the adjustment also won't affect has filed up mortgage application."Another state-owned mortgage business line according to people,According to the previous mortgage policy adjustment of the practice,New housing policy in general only to the New Deal will be issued later submit mortgage application produce effectiveness.

　　“从目前的情况看，受理首套房贷和二套房贷的笔数一般是八二开或七三开。”一大行分支机构的负责人表示，银行受理的大部分按揭业务都是办理首套房贷，换句话说都是购买首套房的刚性需求，据此可以判断，二套房贷新政对银行按揭业务的影响可能较为有限。

"From the present situation to see,Accept the first set of housing and two sets of mortgage pen number is generally 82 open or regular open."A branch line of the person in charge said,Bank accepted by the most of the mortgage business is dealt with the first set of housing,In other words is to buy the first suite of rigid demand,Can be judged according to,The second set of housing the New Deal to bank mortgage business may influence is relatively limited.

　　谈及对首套房贷的影响，受访的银行人士认为，监管部门强调的是差别性的住房政策，可能出台的二套房贷新政不会影响到各家银行的首套房贷定价。“首套房最低优惠利率是各行自己掌握的，目前不变。”一大行人士表示。

An analysis of the influence of the first set of housing,The surveyed bankers think,Regulators emphasis is disparate housing policy,May be on the introduction of the second set of housing the New Deal will not affect the Banks of the first set of housing price."The first suite minimum preferential interest rates are all their mastery of the,At present the same."A big do say.

　　关于传闻中的新政出台的时间节点，受访银行人士的说法不一。多数受访的银行房贷业务人士称，新政应会在全国“两会”之后出台，亦有大行的业务负责人称，“据说会在"两会"之前”。

Rumours about the New Deal on the introduction of the time node,People have different views of the bank.A majority of bank mortgage business person said,The New Deal will be in the country"lianghui"Issued after,Also have big done business responsible person,"It is said that in"lianghui"before".

　　

央媒暗示调控或加码 Central media suggests that regulation or pyramid

　　值得注意的是，新华社本月15日发文指出，自2012年下半年以来，我国各地楼市加速回暖。面对不断走高的楼市预期，业内人士认为，如果未来房价上涨过快，现有的调控政策不仅不会放松，而且有进一步加强的可能性，“调控还有很多牌”。

It is important to note that,Xinhua pointed out that dispatch 15th of this month,Since since the second half of 2012,Our country the property market accelerate milder.In the face of constant to high market expectations,The personage inside course of study thinks,If the future prices rose too quickly,The existing regulation policy not only can not relax,And there is the possibility of further strengthening,"There are many control card".

　　文章援引上海易居房地产研究院副院长杨红旭的表述称，“房贷也有进一步收紧的可能，三套继续停贷，首套贷款利率优惠可能减少或取消，最大调整领域可能是二套房贷，很可能提高首付和利率。”

This paper quoted in the real estate institute of Shanghai yi, vice President of the YangGongXu statement said,"Mortgage also have the possibility of further tightening,Three sets of continue to TingDai,The first set of loan interest rate preferential may reduce or cancel,The biggest adjustment fields may be of two sets of mortgage,Probably improve the down payment and interest rate."

　　杨红旭昨日则表示，春节过后至5月，是新政窗口期。而对于网传二套房贷提至七成首付，贷款利率为基准利率的1.3倍，“宁可信其有！”

YangGongXu, said yesterday,After the Spring Festival to 5 months,Is the New Deal window period.For the two sets of mortgage loans and ask to seventy percent down payment,The loan interest rate is 1.3 times the benchmark interest rate,"Would rather believe its to have!"

　　《人民日报》海外版1月9日亦发表文章称，楼市调控与稳增长不存在政策“撞车”，管理层继续坚持房地产调控政策不动摇，表明抑制楼市过热不仅是当前调整经济结构、转变经济增长方式的需要，也是我国经济安全平稳运行、促进经济可持续增长的重要保障。

[People's Daily]Overseas edition on January 9th also published the article says,The property market regulation and steady growth does not exist policy"crash",Continue to adhere to the management of real estate regulation policy not be moved,Show that inhibition property market overheating is not only the adjustment of economic structure/Change the mode of economic growth needs,Is our country's economic security is running smoothly/Promote economic sustainable growth of the important guarantee.

　　文章指出，稳增长和房地产调控是不矛盾的。过去依靠房地产投资来拉动经济增长，这种增长模式消耗大量资源、占用大量的土地，同时造成了大量的产能过剩。

The author points out that,Steady growth and real estate regulation is not contradictory.The past rely on real estate investment to stimulate economic growth,The growth pattern of consumption of resources/Take up a lot of land,At the same time caused a large number of overcapacity.

　　文章认为，如果不调控，一方面实体经济越来越受冷落，另一方面，房地产市场会累积越来越大的风险。现在进行房地产调控，是主动顺应未来结构调整需要，让房地产市场平稳着陆。

The article thinks that the,If you don't control,On the one hand the real economy more and more get left out in the cold,On the other hand,The real estate market will accumulate more and more risk.Now for real estate regulation,Is active complied with future structure adjustment need,Let the real estate market smooth landing.

　　

圆桌观点 Round table view

　　

中原地产市场研究总监张大伟： The real estate market research director ZhangDaWei:

　　二套房贷新政实施的可能性不高，而且即使实施影响也有限。从2012年中开始的市场反弹，主要出现在一线城市，并非全国性反弹，在三四线城市大部分房价依然平稳，不存在全面出台调控政策的空间。

Two sets of mortgages New Deal implementation possibility is not high,And even if the implementation of the influence is limited.From 2012 years began to market rebound,Mainly appears in a line city,Not national rebound,Three or four line in most cities in house prices is still stable,Does not exist on comprehensive control policy space.

　　相比首套房，二套房购房者的支付能力更强，同样增加一成首付，对于首套房购房者来说，可能会抑制30%的需求，而对于二套房来说，增加一成首付的影响非常小。再从贷款利率增加角度看，贷款20年，100万元的总利息差距在13万左右，而且大部分二套房购房者的还款能力都比较强。

Compared with the first suite,The second suite property buyers can afford more strong,Also increased by ten percent down payment,For the first suite for the person that buy a house,Could keep 30% of the demand,For the second suite speaking,The influence of the proportion of ten percent increase is very small.Then from the loan interest rate increase perspective,Loan twenty years,1 million yuan of total interest gap at around 130000,And most of the person that buy a house two suites of reimbursement ability is strong.

　　

上海同策资深分析师宋红卫： Shanghai strategy with senior analysts SongGongWei:

　　这个只是市场的传闻，但是后期出台房地产调控加严的可能性较大。不仅仅是二套房，现在国有四大行中，除了工商银行以外，其他银行在苏州的首套房优惠利率都从9折上升到9.5折。如果二套房贷首付比例从六成提高到七成，对于楼市会有一定影响，但影响不会太大，毕竟仍保留着购房资格，随着居民收入的增长，以及其他行业投资风险的加大，资金回流到房地产的可能性也会加大，尤其是当前房价上涨预期较大。

This is just a market speculation,But later on real estate regulation tightened probability.Is not only the second suite,Now state-owned four line,In addition to other than commercial bank,Other Banks in suzhou first suite favorable interest rate from discount rose to 9.5 fold.If the two sets of mortgage down ratio increased from sixty percent to seventy percent,For the property market will have a certain impact,But the effect is not too large,After all, still retains the qualification,With the growth of income,And other industry increase the risk of investment,Money back into the real estate also can increase the possibility of,Especially the current house price rising large expected.