在2012年入围诺贝尔经济学奖的罗伯特?希勒（Robert J. Shiller），是标普/凯斯-希勒住房价格指数的联合创始人之一，同时也是一位畅销书作者，《非理性繁荣》《终结次贷危机》《动物精神》等普具影响力的著作均为罗伯特的作品。他曾经成功预言了包括次贷危机在内的数次资本市场泡沫，堪称金融学领域的大师。在过去的几十年里，他亲身参与和经历了金融体系的崛起，也深刻反思过这个体系的局部问题，而面对金融危机中越来越多的关于这个体系并不理性的质疑，他的观点很明确：社会需要金融！

In 2012 the Nobel economics prize named Robert?Alan shearer(Robert j. Shiller),Is the s&p/case shearer housing price index of joint founder,At the same time is a best seller,[Irrational prosperity][Put an end to the subprime mortgage crisis][Animal spirit]And general influential works are Robert's works.He was successfully predicted the subprime crisis, including several capital market bubble,In the field of finance is master.In the past few decades,His personal participation and experience the rise of the financial system,Also profound reflection on the system of local problems,And in the face of financial crisis, more and more about the system is not rational question,His point of view is very clear:Social needs financial!

　　

经济学家 economists

　　“金融业务对品德低下的人具有极强的吸引力，这带来的问题就是一颗老鼠屎搅坏一锅汤，就算真正严于律己、品行端正的金融从业者也被民众视为卑劣的小人。”

"Financial business to low moral people with a strong attraction,This leads to problem is a little bad stir a pot of soup,Even if really be strict with oneself/Well-conducted financial practitioners were also people as despicable person."

　　————罗伯特?希勒《金融与好的社会》

-- -- Robert?Alan shearer[Finance and good social]

　　

金融，影响的不仅仅是富人 financial,Influence is not only the rich

　　金融，或者说金融体系，究竟是一个什么概念？是股票、债券？或者是不动产、黄金？还是那些复杂的经济学公式？或许很多人开始并没有认识到农产品的价格也与金融产品息息相关，它们的价格对期货价格的影响和股票及债券价格的波动有很大的相似之处。谷物交易市场同样也是一个金融市场，它需要使用和股票市场类似的科技设备，也存在价格波动，并且对实体经济也产生相当的影响。全球范围内许多低收入人群的基本生活很大程度上还取决于这些市场上商品价格的波动，仅从这一点上我们就能体会到金融机构的重要性，从而也说明把这些金融机构带上正轨的重要性。

financial,Or the financial system,What is a concept of what?Is stock/bonds?Or real estate/gold?Or those complicated economics formula?Maybe a lot of people are beginning to did not realize that the price of agricultural products and financial products is closely linked,Their prices to the influence of the futures price and the stock and bond price fluctuations have a lot of similarities.Grain market is also a financial market,It need to use and the stock market similar technology equipment,There are also price fluctuation,And the entity economy also have considerable influence.The global scope many low-income people's basic living largely also depends on the market commodity price fluctuation,Only from this point we can realize the importance of financial institutions,And also shows the importance of financial institutions take on track.

　　罗伯特?希勒表示，所有的金融从业者核心的工作之一是撮合交易，也就是创造新的项目，构建新的企业甚至塑造一套新的体系，无论这些交易的规模大小，正是此项工作将通常散落在各处的个人目标结合在一起。罗伯特?希勒说：“他们中有很大一部分人都在对各类业务进行估值，并且引导社会资源投向其中有发展、有潜力的地方。”

Robert?Alan shearer says,All the financial practitioners core work bring together is one of trading,Also is to create a new project,Build a new enterprise even shaping a new system,Whether these trade size,It is the job will usually scattered everywhere in the personal goal together.Robert?Shearer said:"Among them there are quite a few people who are in for all kinds of business valuation,And guide the social resources into the development/Has the potential to place."

　　

有人，就有投机性泡沫 someone,There is a speculative bubble

　　罗伯特?希勒表示，经济理论都把普通人描述为极度厌恶风险且理性地避免任何不确定性的个体，但是人的本性中有另外一面，促使他们采取与上面的假设完全相反的行为，也就是将自己放置在有风险的环境当中。“这个本能的冲动也是导致投机性泡沫并最终引发崩溃的原因之一。”遗憾的是，大多数金融研究中对人性的这一面都没有充分的认识，“我们时刻都要提醒自己，现实中的金融行为与生俱来就有追逐风险的冲动。”

Robert?Alan shearer says,Economic theory is the ordinary people described as extreme risk aversion and rationally avoid any uncertainty of the individual,But the human nature in another side,Force them to take and the above hypothesis completely opposite behavior,There will be placed in their risk environments."This instinctive impulse is also lead to speculative bubble and eventually cause the collapse of one of the reasons."It is a pity that,Most financial study on this side of human nature are not fully known,"We always have to remind myself,The reality of the financial behavior are born is chasing the impulse of risk."

　　经济发展史上不乏投机性泡沫的出现与破灭，以及由此导致经济失衡的事例，泡沫事件的不定期出现似乎已经成为金融体系下人们生活不可缺少的一部分。“泡沫的主要特征，是大量人群同时出现诸如热情、心理活动的传染力、质疑、嫉妒、赌博心理等心理活动或情绪，这暗示着原始的人类情感在人们进行经济决策时占了主导地位。”

There is no lack of economic development history of speculative bubbles appear and burst,And the resulting economic imbalances examples,Bubble tramp appear seems to have become a financial system is an indispensable part of people's life."The main characteristics of the foam,Is a large number of people at the same time appear such as enthusiasm/Psychological activities infectiousness/question/envy/Gambling psychological and mental activity or mood,This implies that the original human feelings in people in economic decisions predominates."

　　在罗伯特?希勒看来，投机性泡沫是一种社会现象，是由许多正常人互动之后产生的异常结果。比如在特定的历史时期，价格上涨的消息会激发投资者的热情，这种情绪通过心理活动的传染力在人际传播，传播过程中作为价格上涨证据的时间被不断夸大，从而吸引越来越多的投资者，新来的投资者一方面在质疑投资项目的真实价值，另一方面出于对其他投资者成功业绩的嫉妒或赌博心理作祟，最终还是使自己置身其中。这正是中国股市中常说的“追涨杀跌”。

In Robert?Alan shearer seems,Speculative bubble is a kind of social phenomenon,Is composed of many normal interaction after which abnormal results.For instance in the specific historical periods,Prices in news will arouse the enthusiasm of investors,This kind of emotion through the psychological activities infectiousness in interpersonal communication,The process of transmission as prices evidence of time have been exaggerated,So as to attract more and more investors,The new investors in question, on the one hand, the real value of the investment project,On the other hand for other investors success jealousy or gambling psychological haunt,Eventually make you place oneself among them.This is China's stock market often said"Chase after go up to industrial".

　

　金融创新不能缺少 Financial innovation cannot lack

　　罗伯特?希勒表示，金融业一方面帮助我们取得了诸多伟大的成就；另一方面却像此次危机中表现的一样，爆发出巨大的破坏力，给社会造成诸多伤害。

Robert?Alan shearer says,The financial industry on the one hand to help us made many great achievements;On the other hand are like the crisis showed,Broke into huge destructive power,To the society caused much damage.

　　当下，许多国家还在疲于应付始于2007年的金融危机所带来的恶果，也正因此使得改造金融体系这个议题凸显出来。“没有人能够精确地划定从此危机的起止，就算是在我继续写作的2012年，我们也并不认为这场危机已经结束，恐怕更严重的后果未来才会显现出来。”罗伯特?希勒表示，“各国政府为根除引发危机的症结而采取的应对措施没有能够深入持久地推行，各国政府为了提振民众对金融机构的信心而进行所谓的‘压力测试’，这些测试的深度和广度也十分值得怀疑。”

the,Many countries still struggling to cope with the financial crisis began in 2007 with the consequences of that,Is also led to reform the financial system the issues highlighted."No one can accurately defined from the crisis and ending,Even in my continued writing in 2012,We also don't think the crisis is over,I'm afraid the more serious consequences in the future will appear."Robert?Alan shearer says,"Governments for the cause of the crisis and the measures taken by the failed to further implement the lasting,Governments in order to boost the confidence of the people to financial institutions and the so-called‘Pressure test’,The width and depth of the test is also questionable."

　　“应对这种现象的最好方式并非钳制金融创新，相反，我们应该鼓励进一步放开金融创新的步伐。此次金融危机提醒了我们，进行金融创新的一个重要前提就是必须服务于保护整个社会的资产这个最根本的目标。”罗伯特?希勒如是说，“我认为不能将此次危机简单地归咎于金融从业者的贪婪或诡诈，真正的诱因埋藏在我们现有金融制度的本源性缺陷当中。但这些问题到现在都没能得到重视。”

"The best way to deal with this kind of phenomenon is not such financial innovation,instead,We should encourage further open pace of financial innovation.The financial crisis reminds us,For financial innovation is an important premise to services to protect the whole social assets the most fundamental goal."Robert?Shearer said,"I think the crisis can not be simply due to financial practitioners greed or deceit,The real incentive buried in our current financial system source of disfigurement.But these problems to now haven't been able to get attention."

　　对话著名经济学家罗伯特?希勒：

Dialogue renowned economist Robert?Alan shearer:

　　

让金融有条件发挥应有的力量 Let financial conditional play its strength

　　钱经：您觉得中国金融环境的发展方向在哪里？

The money:Do you think China's financial environment development direction in where?

　　罗伯特?希勒：中国经济的增长得益于几个方面的变化，包括企业获得新的自主权，市场可以自由发挥力量，推行绩效工资，以及采纳其他能够提高生产率的金融刺激方案等。中国经济如果要持续增长，其金融业的体量需要极大地增加，直接或间接参与金融业的人数也要大幅度增加，中国人平均每8000人才能享有一位律师的服务，相比之下，每300个美国人就能享有1位律师的服务，中国还需要更多从事金融顾问业务的专业人士，以及所有直接参与金融业的从业人员。

Robert?Alan shearer:The growth of China's economy benefit from several aspects of the change,Including enterprise obtain new autonomy,Market power can be free play,Implementation of the performance salary,And adopt other can improve the productivity of financial stimulus plan, etc.If China's economy to sustained growth,The financial industry to greatly increase the volume,Directly or indirectly involved in the financial industry will greatly increase the number of people,Chinese average every 8000 people can enjoy a lawyer service,Compared with,Every 300 people in the United States can enjoy the one with the services of a lawyer,China also need more engaged in financial consulting business professionals,And all the employees of the directly involved in the financial industry.

　　世界上任何一个国家都不可能照搬照抄其他国家金融领域的办事理念，金融创新要考虑金融和法律制度的复杂性，同时还要消除民众对金融的抵抗情绪，所以创新必然是一个缓慢的过程。但是，如果我们能培养出一群以推动社会良性发展为己任的金融从业者，就能加快金融创新的步伐。

Any other country in the world is impossible to copy other countries in the field of finance business philosophy,Financial innovation should consider financial and legal system complexity,At the same time will eliminate the populace to resist financial mood,So innovation must be a slow process.but,If we can cultivate a group of to promote the benign development of the society as its financial practitioners,Can speed up the pace of financial innovation.

　　与其他国家一样，中国也应该从现在开始建立一些基础性经济制度，以防未来经济不平等现象持续恶化。未来发展中有一部分不过是简单地延续目前的趋势，继续改善金融和保险制度，以此减轻不平等的程度。其他一些受金融理论启发但需要由政府执行的措施，也是中国急需制订的措施。

And other countries,China should also be from now on to establish some basic economic system,In case of future economic inequality continued to worsen.In the future development of but is simply continue current trends,Continue to improve the financial and insurance system,To reduce the degree of inequality.By some other financial theory inspire but need to implement measures by the government,Is China urgently needs to formulate measures.

　　随着经济实力的增长，中国也必须下定决心培养一批独立的慈善机构。在倡导慈善时，我们应该注意扩大慈善义举覆盖的范围，也应该倡导慈善源于个人的主动意愿。政府不应该成为慈善捐赠的主导力量，真正能使慈善事业蓬勃发展的是人们的创意和同情心，而且也必须是人们自觉自愿的捐赠。中国必须将培养范围更广、包容性更强的慈善文化作为主要任务抓紧执行。

With the growth of the economic strength,China must also be determined to cultivate a group of independent charity.In advocating the charity,We should pay attention to expand the charity event, the scope of the cover,Should also be advocating charity of individual active intend to.The government should not become the dominant force in charity,Really can make charitable enterprise vigorous development is people's creativity and sympathy,But also must be people voluntary donations.China must will cultivate a wider range/Inclusiveness more charity culture as the main task to implement.

　　钱经：为什么说金融业与好的社会息息相关？其中的逻辑是什么？

The money:Why to say the financial industry is closely related with the good society?The logic is that???????

　　罗伯特?希勒：我们都生活在金融主导的时代，也就是金融制度对社会经济体制的影响力逐步增长的年代，而2007年开始的金融危机是大多数人都认为这种制度已经腐化。我们都需要认真思考这个社会的发展方向是否正确？我们这一代人以及下一代人是否仍要坚持同样的发展方向？

Robert?Alan shearer:We all live in the era of financial dominant,Is the financial system on the influence of the social economic system gradually growing s,And in 2007 the financial crisis that began in the most people think that this system had become corrupt.We all need to carefully think about the social development direction is correct?We of this generation and the next generation of people still insist on the development direction of the same?

　　当代社会确实在朝着一个经济地位越来越不平等的方向发展，造成这种趋势的原因之一是参与金融相关活动的人获得的报酬相当高，而在整个经济体系中其他行业从业者获得的报酬相对低很多，大多数中产阶级和穷人都属于后一类，而他们的社会地位也越来越不稳固。政府划拨资金救助本来就很富有的一群人，无疑加重了公众对这种不平等现象的质疑。

In the contemporary society really a economic status more and more not equal development direction,One of the reasons caused the trend is to participate in the activities related to financial reward is quite high,And in the whole economic system in other industry practitioners have relatively low pay a lot,Most of the middle class and the poor are those,And their social status is also more and more unstable.The government transfer financial aid was very rich a group of people,No doubt increased the public to the inequality of the question.

　　无论如何，我们也不能断言金融危机与生俱来就是一个只能容纳社会精英的行业，也不能将其视为推动经济非公平发展的引擎。尽管其存在种种不足且可能显得贪得无厌，但是金融业同时有潜力帮助我们塑造一个更和谐、更繁荣和更平等的社会。实际上，当今几个重要市场经济体的崛起很大程度上有赖于金融业为其发展提供了核心支持，如果没有金融业，这种崛起是我们根本无法实现的。许多媒体人以大篇幅抨击银行家和金融家，称他们是自我膨胀的罪犯，是导致经济失衡和民众遭罪的魁首，但就算在如此恶劣的舆论环境下，我们仍应该看到金融业是我们这个社会不可或缺的一部分，它管控风险的能力使我们可以将创意转化成各种重要的产品和服务，从生产工艺到科研机构，乃至公众福利体系，可以说金融机构与民众之间的联系是维系社会运转的最基础关系。金融有充足的潜力为我们塑造一个更加公平、公正的世界。

No matter how,We cannot assert that the financial crisis is born with a can accommodate social elite industry,And not to be treated as economic not fair development engine.Although it may appear there are kinds of shortage and greed,But the financial industry also has the potential to help us build a more harmonious/The more prosperous and more equal society.In fact,The rise of several important market economies will largely depend on the financial industry for its development provides core support,If there is no financial industry,The rise is that we cannot achieve.Many media people with large length against bankers and financiers,Say they are ego inflation criminals,Is the result of economic imbalances and people suffer the brightest and best,But even in such a bad public opinion environment,We still should see the financial industry is an important part of our society,It controls the ability of the risk that we may turning ideas into various important products and services,From the production process to research institutions,And the public welfare system,Can say financial institutions and the public is the relationship between maintaining social operation of the most basic relationships.Financial have plenty of potential for us to shape a more fair/Just world.