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安邦咨询:伦敦是人民币国际化的关键舞台--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2013-02-25
人民币国际化在海外市场上引发关注,被认为是“21世纪国际金融业最重要的机遇”,香港、新加坡、伦敦争当人民币离岸中心。从地缘因素看,香港近水楼台先得月,无疑将成为离岸人民币最重要的集散地。但若分析人民币国际化的前景,应当承认,伦敦才是人民币国际化真正关键的舞台。
RMB internationalization in the overseas market cause attention,Is considered to be"The international financial industry in the 21st century the most important opportunity",Hong Kong/Singapore/London to be an offshore RMB centre.See from the geopolitical factors,Hong Kong first served,Will undoubtedly become the most important offshore RMB center.But if analysis the prospect of RMB internationalization,Should admit,London is the real key RMB internationalization stage.
伦敦之于人民币国际化的重要性显而易见。从国际金融中心的排名看,根据有关研究,伦敦排在纽约之前,是全球排名第一的金融中心;纽约第二,香港、新加坡分列三、四位。伦敦金融市场的国际化程度也为全球最高。其中,伦敦市场发放的国际信贷约占全球的20%;伦敦证券交易所(LSE)交易的证券中,约有50%为外国证券;伦敦外汇市场是世界最大的外汇市场,交易量约占全球的1/3;伦敦金属交易所(LME)是全球最大有色金属交易所,已被港交所收购;伦敦金融城的劳合社则为全球最大保险业中心,2/3的业务来自海外。从排名和数字来看,人民币若能登陆伦敦形成离岸的欧洲人民币市场,将成为人民币国际化最重要的里程碑。
London is to the importance of RMB internationalization is obvious.From the international financial center ranking to see,According to the research,London row before in New York,Is the world ranking the first financial center;The New York,Hong Kong/Singapore placed third/four.The London financial markets for the highest degree of internationalization.the,London market by international credit accounts for about 20% of the world;The London stock exchange(LSE)Trading in securities,About 50% for foreign securities;The London exchange market is the world's largest foreign exchange market,Volume accounts for about a third of the world;London metal exchange(LME)Is the world's largest non-ferrous metal exchange,Has been bought by Hong Kong exchange;City of London's lloyds is the world's largest insurance center,Two-thirds of the business from overseas.From the ranking and digital to see,If the yuan in London form offshore RMB market in Europe,RMB internationalization will be the most important milestone.
在此前几个主要币种的国际化过程中,伦敦都扮演了至关重要的角色。比如美元,上世纪50年代初,由于美国援助欧洲的马歇尔计划,以及美国成为重建后欧洲的最大出口市场,大量的美元存款流向欧洲,尤其是伦敦,形成“欧洲美元”。这为美元的国际化奠定了坚实的基础。之后,由于美国持续的贸易逆差,“欧洲美元”逐渐扩散到全世界,这才有了美元当前的“本位货币”地位。从这段金融史看,美元国际化始于伦敦。
In previous several major currency internationalization process,London has played a more important role.Such as the dollar,In the early 1950 s,Because the U.S. aid European Marshall plan,And the United States as reconstruction Europe's largest export market,A large number of dollars deposit to Europe,Especially London,formation"European dollars".The internationalization of the dollar has laid a solid foundation.after,Because the United States of persistent and trade deficit,"European dollars"Gradually spread to the world,It is the dollar current"Standard currency"status.From this period of JinRongShi look,Dollars international began in London.
日元的国际化同样离不开伦敦市场的襄助。上世纪70年代,随着日元国际地位的提升,欧洲日元市场逐渐成型,其中以伦敦最为重要,占全部市场份额的60%左右。在80年代,日元国际化加速发展,欧洲日元市场反过来促进了日本国内的金融开放,促使日本政府在国内创设离岸金融市场,交易欧洲日元。这种“出口转内销”正是当时日本国内金融改革的重要动力。
The internationalization of the yen also cannot leave the London market to facilitate.In the 1970 s,With the promotion of the position of the yen,The European market gradually forming,The most important in London,The total market share of about 60%.In the 80 s,Accelerate the development of internationalization of the yen,The European market, in turn, promote the Japanese domestic financial opening,The Japanese government in China to create offshore financial market,Trading European yen.this"Export turns sale in domestic market"It is at that time the Japanese domestic financial reform important power.
这些主要货币都选择伦敦作为国际化舞台并非偶然,体现了伦敦身为老牌金融中心的国际地位。横向比较,英国金融监管层的监管技术,以及伦敦金融市场的成熟程度在全球皆首屈一指;伦敦也是最早推进金融自由化改革的地区这令伦敦在国际金融中心的竞争中抢占了先发优势,更为舒适的金融环境有利于吸引资本流入。
These major currency choose London as an international stage is not accidental,Reflects the old London as a financial center international status.Horizontal comparison of,Britain's financial regulator layer regulatory technology,And the London financial market maturity in the world are second to none;London is also the first to promote financial liberalization reform region this makes London in the international financial centre at the start of the competition advantage,More comfortable financial environment to attract capital inflow.
对于人民币国际化来说,除了前述美元及日元国际化的经验,伦敦的离岸人民币市场还意味着更多。当前,随着中国企业“走出去”,特别是走向欧洲的步伐加快,欧洲市场对于人民币的需求正在大幅增加,这令伦敦市场上的人民币交易具有了真实的需求,而不仅仅是投机的筹码。中国政府对于人民币国际化的主要顾虑在于,国际市场上的人民币有可能成为海外投机者狙击中国的工具,因此格外强调“顺其自然”,避免人民币被过度投机化。目前来看,这样的担忧在伦敦市场上应可有所减轻。
RMB internationalization for it,In addition to the dollar and yen international experience,London's offshore RMB market also means more.The current,As China's enterprise"Go out",Especially to speed up the pace of Europe,For the European market demand is greatly increased,This makes the London market RMB trading with the real demand,Rather than speculative chip.The Chinese government for RMB internationalization is the main concern,The international market may be the overseas speculators sniper China's tools,Therefore urged"Let nature take its course",Avoid excessive speculation the yuan is changed.So far,Such concerns in the London market should be mitigated.
值得注意的是,人民币走向伦敦并非中国单方面的意愿。英国及伦敦方面对于离岸人民币极度渴求,表现出了超出市场预料的热情。在数个公开场合,英国及伦敦金融城高层高调宣称,要建成主要离岸人民币交易中心。英国财政大臣乔治?奥斯本(George Osborne)去年公开表示,“让伦敦成为这个领域的西方中心,从而给我们自己的经济带来诸多好处,是英国政府的理想”。英国最大银行汇丰控股则于去年发行了首个在LSE上市的点心债,将人民币业务的客户拓展到欧洲,也释放出伦敦推进建设人民币离岸中心的明确信号。
It is important to note that,RMB to London is not China's unilateral intend to.In the UK and London for offshore RMB desperate,Showed more than the market expected enthusiasm.In a number of public,Britain and the city of London's top that,In order to main offshore RMB trading center.Britain's finance minister, George?osborne(George Osborne)Last year, said publicly that,"This field to make London the western center,To our own economy to bring a lot of benefits,The British government is the ideal".Britain's biggest bank, HSBC holdings is be released last year, the first in the LSE listed snacks debt,Will the RMB business customers has extended to Europe,Also release the London propulsion construction an offshore RMB centre clear signal.
伦敦建设离岸人民币中心的最新动态是,英国央行2月22日表示,正与中国央行研究设立货币互换安排,凸显出中英两国高层对伦敦发展初期的离岸人民币市场的支持。英国央行行长默文?金在声明中称,伦敦作为离岸人民币业务中心正迅速发展;而在中国央行行长周小川过往的表态中,货币互换安排是推动人民币国际化最主要的工具之一。
London construction offshore RMB centre is the latest developments,The bank of England on February 22nd said,China's central bank is set up with the currency swap arrangements,Highlight the UK top to London in the early development of offshore RMB market support.The bank of England governor Mervin?Kim said in a statement,London as an offshore RMB business center is developing rapidly;In China's central bank governor zhou xiaochuan said in the past,Currency swap arrangement is to promote RMB internationalization the main tool.
最终分析结论(Final Analysis Conclusion):
Final analysis conclusion(Final Analysis Conclusion):
伦敦发展人民币离岸中心,对中国人民币及伦敦来说可谓相得益彰,双方都能从中获得不菲的收益。尤其对于中国,伦敦是人民币国际化的真正舞台。只有把握住伦敦的市场机遇,人民币的国际化才可水到渠成,甚至反过来促进中国国内金融市场的成熟。迄今,人民币在伦敦的发展十分顺利,但也要做好迎接挑战的准备。
London developed an offshore RMB centre,On China's yuan and London, it bring out the best in each other,Both sides can get significant benefits.Especially for China,London is the real stage RMB internationalization.Only grasp the London market opportunities,The internationalization of RMB to follow,Even in turn promoting China's domestic financial markets mature.So far,The development of RMB in London is very smooth,But should also be made to meet the challenge.
本文仅代表机构观点,不代表本网立场!
In this paper, only representative organization view,Do not represent this position!
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