城镇化被视为未来经济发展的一大推动力。但就在各级政府及市场对城镇化充满憧憬之时，城镇化带来的持续巨量资金投入，也将考验本已负债的各级政府筹资能力及市场承受能力。

Urbanization is seen as a big driver of economic development in the future.But at all levels of government and market to the vision of urbanization,Urbanization brings sustained huge amount of money,Also already indebted governments at all levels will be tested in the ability to raise funds and market capacity.

　　银行信贷资金、债市资金、民间资本等被认为是传统的几大资金重要来源。但据本报记者了解，目前占据社会融资总量过半的银行对城镇化带来的商机看法颇为谨慎。而与之相对的是，债市等其他融资方式或将更为被倚重。

Bank credit funds/Bond funds/Folk capital is regarded as a traditional big funds important source.But according to our reporter,Currently occupies more than half of the total social financing Banks think of urbanization brings business opportunities.But against that,Bond market and other financing way or will be dependent on more.

　　⊙记者 周鹏峰

Even though journalists Zhou Pengfeng

　　○编辑 龚维松

A. edit Gong Weisong

　　催生巨大投资需求

Gave rise to huge investment demand

　　有测算称，仅以2002年的价格计，每增加一个城市人口，就需要增加9万元的投资。若增加1000多万城市人口，再以当前价格水平计算，增加的投资则有可能高达几万亿元

There are calculated according to,Only for the price of 2002 meter,Every increase the population of a city,Just need to increase the investment of 90000 yuan.If add more than 1000 urban population,Again at the current price level is calculated,Increase the investment may be up to trillions of dollars

　　城镇化所蕴涵的巨大潜力，已然激发各地的积极性。

The urbanization's huge potential,Is to inspire enthusiasm throughout the country.

　　2012年12月中旬，福建省在下发的推进城镇化发展十二条措施部门任务分工方案中明确提出，要实施“大城关”战略，引导产业、人口等要素向县城和中心镇集聚，“十二五”末全省18个县城人口规模达到10万人以上，20个县城达到5～10万人。

In the middle of December 2012,In article 12 measures issued by urbanization development in fujian province department task plan clearly put forward in the division of labor,To implement"Big city"strategy,Guide the industry/Elements such as to county and town population agglomeration,"The 12th five-year"The province at the end of the 18 counties population size reaches more than 100000 people,20 counties reached five to 100000 people.

　　简单的几个数字，或难以量化背后的机遇与挑战。更直观的是，推进城镇化蕴含着巨大的内需潜力，需要在基础设施、公共服务和保障性住房建设等方面进行大量投资。

Simple a few Numbers,Or hard to quantify behind the opportunities and challenges.More intuitive,Urbanization contains the huge potential of domestic demand,Needed in the infrastructure/Public services and the construction of affordable housing has a large number of investment.

　　有测算称，仅以2002年的价格计，每增加一个城市人口，就需要增加9万元的投资。若增加1000多万城市人口，并以当前价格水平计算，增加的投资则有可能达几万亿元。

There are calculated according to,Only for the price of 2002 meter,Every increase the population of a city,Just need to increase the investment of 90000 yuan.If add more than 1000 urban population,And at the current price level is calculated,Increase in investment is likely to trillions of dollars.

　　央行曾总结推进城镇化相关投资的几个特点：一是资金需求量大；二是建设周期相对较长，投资回收周期往往更长；三是有些投资部分甚至全部体现为社会效益而非项目本身的直接收入效益。

The central bank has concluded several characteristics of urbanization related investment:One is a large capital demand;Second, the construction cycle is relatively long,Investment recovery period is often much longer;Three is some invest some or all of the embodied in social benefit rather than direct income benefit of the project itself.

　　而目前我国城镇化率为51%，按户籍人口计算只有35%，距离我国2030年65%～70%的目标尚有很大发展距离。银河证券测算认为，这意味着到2030年，各类城镇将新增3亿多人口。这就意味各级地方政府未来需要持续投入大笔资金推进城镇化建设。同时，这对已负债不小的各级地方政府也将是不小的压力。

But at present, China's urbanization rate of 51%,According to the census register population is only 35%,From the goal of 65% ~ 70% in 2030 in our country has great development space.Galaxy securities, estimates that,This means that by 2030,All kinds of towns will add more than 300 million people.This means that local governments at all levels need to continuously invest large sums of money to promote the urbanization construction in the future.At the same time,This has liabilities of local governments at all levels will also be a big pressure.

　　因此，央行曾表态应通过鼓励民间投资、健全税收体系、完善多元化融资机制等，为城镇化投资提供规范、稳定、可持续的资金支持。

so,The central bank had spoken by encouraging private investment/Improve the tax system/Improve the diversified financing mechanism, etc,Provide the specification for the urbanization investment/stable/Sustainable financial support.

　　目前各地政府已在积极探索拓展城镇化投融资方案。比如，福建省就拓展投融资明确提出，要支持各地组建城镇开发建设投融资平台，通过注入土地资产、土地增值效益、盘活冠名权、经营权和使用权，发行企业（公司）债券、中期票据、短期融资券、中小企业集合票据、信托计划和上市融资等渠道筹措资金。

At present government has been actively exploring expanding urbanization around the investment and financing scheme.Such as the,Fujian province will expand investment and financing clearly put forward,To support formed around the town development and construction investment and financing platform,Through the injection of land assets/Land value-added benefits/Revitalize the naming rights/Management and use rights,issuers(The company)The bond/Medium-term notes/Short-term financing/Small and medium-sized enterprises set paper/The trust plans and listed financing channels to raise funds.

　

　债市望大有作为 The bond market looks promising

　　与银行贷款比，债券价格可以及时反映地方财力的稳健状况，既面临较强的市场约束，也有助于激励地方政府通过改善当地信用状况降低融资成本

With bank loans than,Bond prices can timely reflect the health of local financial resources,Are faced with both strong market constraints,Also helps to motivate the local government by improving the local credit conditions reduce the financing cost

　　福建省政府拟倚重城镇开发建设投融资平台进行债券融资的构想，一定程度上与监管层思路的侧重点颇为相符。此前，央行多次强调市政债这一融资工具对推进城镇化的重要性，可见其倾向。

Fujian provincial government plans to rely on urban development and construction investment and financing platform for bond financing ideas,The emphasis of the extent to which regulators thought is consistent.after,Central bank repeatedly emphasized that municipal bonds the importance of the financing tools to promote urbanization,Its tendency is.

　　在2012年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告中，央行曾专门开辟专栏探讨城镇化建设融资的国际经验。专栏综合大多数国家情况称，城镇化建设资金来源主要有三方面，一是传统意义上的政府税收；二是基于使用者付费原则的项目收益；三是通过发行市政债或类似债务工具从金融市场融资。

In the fourth quarter of 2012 China's monetary policy implementation report,The central bank has set up a column financing the international experience of urbanization construction is discussed in this paper.Column most countries said,The urbanization construction capital source mainly has three aspects,One is in the traditional sense of the government tax;2 it is based on the principle of user fees project benefits;3 it is through the issuance of municipal bonds or similar debt instruments from the financial markets.

　　央行称，有了使用者付费和财产税等地方税作为稳定的未来收入，地方政府就可能负债融资进行城镇化建设，典型做法就是发行市政债或类似债务工具。

The central bank said,Have the users pay property tax and other local taxes as stable future income,Could be urbanization construction of debt financing in local governments,Typical is the issuance of municipal bonds or similar debt instruments.

　　从历史上看，市政债和城市化进程关系较为密切。比如美国南北战争结束到第一次世界大战结束这段时间，市政债发行规模均超过国债，这一时期也是美国城市化快速发展时期。日本二战后上世纪50～70年代，经济高速增长大大推动了城市化进程，地方债在这一时期也大量发行。

Look from the history,Municipal bonds and urbanization are closely related.Such as the American civil war to the end of world war I this period of time,Municipal bonds issuance exceeded national debt,This period is the period of rapid urbanization.S ~ 70 s Japan after the second world war,Rapid economic growth has greatly promoted the urbanization process,Local government debt also a lot of issue during this period.

　　据央行分析，与银行贷款比，市政债是在金融市场上的公开融资行为，需要披露信息和获得相应的发债评级，债券价格可以及时反映地方财力的稳健状况，既面临较强的市场约束，也有助于激励地方政府通过改善当地信用状况降低融资成本。

According to analysis of China's central bank,With bank loans than,Municipal bonds are public financing behavior in financial markets,Require disclosure of information and get the corresponding debt rating,Bond prices can timely reflect the health of local financial resources,Are faced with both strong market constraints,Also helps to motivate the local government by improving the local credit conditions reduce the financing cost.

　　央行行长周小川早在几年前就开始呼吁放开市政债的发行。他说，如果市政债和财产税搭配，可以有效地解决城镇化建设的成本约束问题，也可以防范城镇化过程中出现的风险。

Central bank governor, zhou xiaochuan, began calling for release as early as a few years ago the issue of municipal bonds.He said,If the municipal bonds and property,Can effectively solve the problem of urbanization construction cost constraints,Also can guard against the risk appeared in the process of urbanization.

　　目前的城投债被认为是市政债的一种变通，与国外的市政债很接近，即以为地方基础设施建设或公益性项目筹资而公开发行的企业债、短期融资券和中期票据等。

The current urban construction investment bonds are considered to be a flexible municipal bonds,Municipal bonds is very close to the outside world,Thought the local infrastructure construction or public welfare project financing and public issuance of corporate bonds/Short-term financing bonds and medium-term notes, etc.

　　中央财经大学中国银行(601988,股吧)业研究中心主任郭田勇亦直言，城投债只不过借用了一个城投公司的名义，背后的实际主导仍是地方政府。可预见，在市政债成行之前，城镇化将推动城投债的持续扩容。

The central university of finance and the bank of China(601988,stocks)Industry research center director guo tianyong has come,Udic debt just to borrow a city in the name of the company,Actual dominant is still behind the local government.The foreseeable,Before the municipal bonds in line,Urbanization will promote urban construction investment bonds continued expansion.

　　且据本报记者了解，此前市场间已有流传，在城镇化背景下，此前被收紧的地方融资平台发债已有放松意向。

And according to our reporter,After the market has been circulated,Under the background of urbanization,Had been tightened local financing platform issuance has intention to relax.

　　东北证券(000686,股吧)认为，城镇化支撑城投债的发展，也是扩大内需的最大潜力所在，地方政府借助于地方投融资平台弥补资金缺口，城投债就是一个选择，估计2013年城投债净发行规模可能在8000亿以上。

Northeast securities(000686,stocks)think,Urbanization city support for the development of the debt,And the greatest potential for expanding domestic demand,Local governments with the aid of local investment and financing platform to make up for the shortfall,Udic debt is a choice,Estimated 2013 city cast net debt issuance may be in more than 800 billion.

　　据其统计，在2012年1月4日至2013年2月8日，城投债发行额为9900亿，发债数843个，其中江苏以1628.1亿、发债150个位居各省区首位，浙江位居第二，发行652.7亿元，从存量城投债余额来看，江苏、北京、浙江、上海位居4甲，前四位集中度为36.41%，城投债发行与地区经济发展正相关。

According to the statistics,On January 4, 2012 to February 8, 2013,City investment bond issuance for 990 billion,Issue number 843,Jiangsu in 162.81 billion/Issue 150 first among provinces,Zhejiang second,Issue 65.27 billion yuan,From the stock udic debt balance,jiangsu/Beijing/zhejiang/Shanghai in 4 b,Four concentration was 36.41%,City issuance positively related to the regional economic development.

　　不过，要进一步名正言顺地推动市政债的发行，郭田勇认为，首先要解决的问题就是理顺中央与地方的关系。他说在美国，各个州政府有自行发债的权力，一旦资不抵债，州政府可以破产。但在中国，即使由地方政府自行发债，背后仍然有中央财政的兜底，这将在很大程度上削弱地方发债的意义。

but,To further sufficient to push the issue of municipal bonds,Guo tianyong thought,The first important problem is to straighten out the relationship between the central government and local government.He said in the United States,Each state have debt issuance by power,Once the insolvency,The state can go bankrupt.But in China,Even by the local government bonds on its own,Back still have out of the central government,This will largely weaken the meaning of local debt.

　

　商业银行审慎观望 Commercial Banks cautious wait-and-see

　　到目前为止，除了国开行明确表示，2013年将一半以上的新增贷款投向城镇化及配套建设外，商业银行几乎均未就城镇化明确公开其量化的投入计划

So far,In addition to CDB made clear,Will be more than half of the 2013 new loans to urbanization and construction of form a complete set,Commercial Banks has not been nearly as urbanization clear open its quantitative investment plan

　　与债市自上而下被寄予的厚望相比，作为传统的主流融资渠道——银行此番或不再占绝对主导地位。且据记者观察，城镇化这一重大战略所带来的诱惑并未明显激发商业银行的积极性。比如素来在基建领域颇具优势的建行对城镇化的公开表态即颇为低调。

Compared with the bond market is top-down's high hopes,As the mainstream of the traditional financing channels - bank this time or no longer occupies a absolute dominant position.And according to the reporter,Urbanization brought by this important strategic temptation is not significantly stimulated the enthusiasm of commercial Banks.Such as have considerable advantages in the field of infrastructure construction bank publicly that low-key of urbanization.

　　该行2013年工作会议发布的新闻稿中只提到“2013年随着新型工业化、信息化、城镇化、农业现代化的全面纵深推进，将为经济增长注入新的生机和活力。”并未就该行今后将在城镇化方面做何投入作出明确表态。

2013 working meeting of the bank is only mentioned in the press release"With the new industrialization in 2013/informatization/The urbanization/Of agricultural modernization carried forward in an all-round way,Will inject new vitality and vigor for growth."Did not the bank will make clear what input in terms of urbanization.

　　持这一审慎态度的商业银行并非建行一家。农行某地支行行长也对本报记者称，截至目前总行并未就城镇化作出具体的安排部署，并称“这方面特别是涉及政府融资平台的事碰不得。”

Hold a prudent attitude of commercial Banks is not a CCB.Sub-branch, agricultural bank somewhere on our correspondent says,As of now the headquarters of urbanization did not make specific arrangements for deployment,And said"This aspect especially involving the government financing platform is untouchable."

　　到目前为止，除了政策性银行——国开行明确表示，2013年将一半以上的新增贷款投向城镇化及配套建设外，商业银行几乎均未就城镇化明确公开其量化的投入计划，也未见明确的投入倾向。

So far,In addition to the policy Banks - the bank made it clear that,Will be more than half of the 2013 new loans to urbanization and construction of form a complete set,Commercial Banks has not been nearly as urbanization clear open its quantitative investment plan,Also did not see clear tendency.

　　国开行董事长陈元日前在该行年度工作会上表示，今年国开行将发挥中长期投融资和综合经营优势，以支持城镇化为重点，加大对基础设施、社会民生、“走出去”等重点领域和薄弱环节的支持力度，将一半以上的新增贷款投向城镇化及配套建设，为实体经济发展提供有效的融资支持。

CDB chairman Chen yuan said currently working in the bank's annual meeting,This year, CDB will exert advantages of long-term investment and financing and comprehensive management,To support attach more importance to the town,Increase in infrastructure/Social livelihood of the people/"To go out"The support in key areas and weak links,Will be more than half of new loans to urbanization and construction of form a complete set,Provide effective financing support for economy development.

　　陈元指出，2012年国开行加强规模统筹调度，新增煤电油运、农林水、通讯和公共基础设施建设贷款3382亿元，确保高速铁路、城市轨道交通、电网联网等一大批“十二五”规划重点项目资金需求，为城镇化发展夯实了基础。

Chen pointed out that,2012 CDB strengthen scale as a whole the scheduling,New coal oil/following/Communications and public infrastructure loans 338.2 billion yuan,To ensure high speed railway/Urban rail transit/A large number of grid connected to the Internet"The 12th five-year"Planning and key project funding needs,To consolidate the foundation of urbanization development.

　　在很多前景并不明确的领域，国开行都扮演着开拓者的角色，待商业前景较为明朗之时，商业银行再随之跟进。此时商业银行显然并不想贸然跟进。

In the field of many prospects is not clear,CDB has played the role of the Portland trail blazers,Stay business outlook is relatively clear,Commercial Banks to follow suit.Obviously, commercial Banks don't want to rush to follow up.

　　有商业银行人士如此评论称：“国开行是政策性银行，现在商业银行谁跟进谁死得快。”

Commercial bankers such commentary said:"CDB is a policy bank,Now commercial Banks who follow up who die fast."

　　实际上，除了主观上的审慎应对，商业银行目前也缺乏大笔投入的能力。中国社科院金融重点实验室主任刘煜辉说，2009年金融危机时，为保经济增长，商业银行投放庞大的信贷资金保增长，随后带来一系列后遗症，他认为这些后遗症正是此次商业银行难以积极表态的原因。

In fact,In addition to subjective carefully deal with,Commercial bank is lack of big capacity.Chinese academy of social sciences financial director of key laboratory of LiuYuHui said,During the financial crisis in 2009,To keep economic growth,Commercial Banks on the massive credit growth,Then a series of complications,He believes the sequela is what causes of the commercial Banks to positive remarks.

　　“在这一轮信贷投放中，银行沉淀了很多资金，比如地方融资平台贷款，投入一期，就还有追加投入支持续建工程，或者为前期贷款展期，这样一笔贷款沉淀的资金可能要长达几年。”刘煜辉称。

"In this round of credit,Bank deposit a lot of money,Such as local financing platforms,Put a period,There is an additional input in the extension project of support,Or the previous loan roll over,A loan of precipitation funds may be for a few years."LiuYuHui said.

　　为保经济增长，2009年金融机构新增人民币贷款创出9.59万亿的天量，但后续带来的资本约束、存贷比制约、地方融资平台贷款风险等系列压力让银行颇伤脑筋，仅在一年之后，资本市场即迎来上市银行的再融资大年，地方融资平台贷款也进入频繁清查整顿期，高企的存贷比亦成为银行几年来的持续制约。

To keep economic growth,Financial institutions in 2009 new yuan loans at 9.59 trillion days,But subsequent brings capital constraints/LDR restriction/Local financing platform for credit risk, etc. Series pressure let bank nerve-racking,Only after a year,Capital market is facing the refinancing of the listed bank annual,Local financing platform loans also into frequent inventory clean up period,High deposit-loan ratio also become continues to restrict Banks over the last few years.

　　

债务约束机制待建 Debt to build constraint mechanism

　　专家称，一方面，地方政府发债的绝对额还在增长；另一方面，债务偿还压力随着经济下行压力和财政收入增幅下滑而加大，今年的地方政府债务风险比往年有所加大

Experts say,On the one hand,Local government debt buy-backs is growing;On the other hand,Debt repayment pressure along with the economic downturn and the decline in fiscal revenue growth,This year's local government debt risk is more than normal

　　颇为默契的是，在商业银行审慎的同时，地方政府对银行似乎也未寄予厚望。在福建省拟定的拓宽投融资渠道计划中，丝毫未提及如何争取银行信贷资金的支持。

Is quite the tacit understanding,Prudent in the commercial bank and at the same time,The local government also seems to be not had high hopes for Banks.In fujian province to broaden the financing channels of plans,Not to mention how to get the bank credit funds to support.

　　尽管信贷资金占社会融资总量比重正呈现逐步下降的趋势，但截至目前银行信贷资金占比仍超过50%。因此，如何获得银行信贷资金的青睐仍将是未来各级政府难以忽略的重点。

Although total social financing proportion of credit funds is shows the tendency of decline gradually,But so far still accounted for over 50% of bank credit funds.so,How to get the favour of bank credit funds will continue to be the focus of the governments at all levels of the future is difficult to ignore.

　　刘煜辉认为，商业银行有商业目标，要吸引商业银行的积极投入，一个方法是在商业银行投入未达目标要求时，政府要给予一定的补贴，且这种补贴要进入政府预算。同样，要吸引规模庞大的民间资本投入到城镇化的建设中来，亦要一定的收益担保。

LiuYuHui think,Commercial Banks commercial objectives,To attract the commercial Banks to actively involved,A method is put in the commercial bank failed to reach the target requirement,The government should offer certain subsidy,To go into government budget and the subsidies.The same,To attract the massive folk capital into the construction of urbanization,Also to a certain number of guaranteed benefits.

　　福建省政府拟拓展的另一条投融资渠道即是吸引民间资本、保险资金、股权投资基金通过BOT、BT、项目融资等方式参与城镇建设和经营。

Fujian provincial government plans to expand the other is to attract private capital investment and financing channels/Insurance funds/Equity funds by BOT/BT/Project financing methods such as participate in urban construction and management.

　　但在城镇化大规模启动初期，且项目前景未明确之时，刘煜辉认为如果缺乏一定的收益保障，地方政府要吸引这类资金的大笔投入存有一定的难度。

But in the early large-scale urbanization started,And the project prospects uncertain,LiuYuHui think if lack of a guaranteed returns,Local governments to attract this kind of large capital input has certain difficulty.

　　不过，在吸纳各路资金的同时，地方政府对其偿债能力的客观把握尤为关键。根据国家审计署披露的信息，去年和今年地方政府债务将进入集中偿还期，约有42%的地方债务于2012年底前到期，53%的地方债务将于2013年底前到期。

but,At the same time of absorbing funds,The local government is important to the objective grasp of its solvency.According to the national audit office disclosed information,Local government debt last year and this year will enter the payback period,About 42% of the local debt due by the end of 2012,53% of the local debt is set to expire by the end of 2013.

　　财政部财政科学研究所金融研究室主任赵全厚曾对媒体表示，一方面，地方政府发债的绝对额还在增长。另一方面，债务偿还压力随着经济下行压力和财政收入增幅下滑而加大，今年的地方政府债务风险比往年有所加大。

Finance financial science institute finance research director Zhao Quanhou had told reporters,On the one hand,Local government debt buy-backs is growing.On the other hand,Debt repayment pressure along with the economic downturn and the decline in fiscal revenue growth,This year's local government debt risk is more than normal.

　　刘煜辉则认为现在地方政府的债务已有失控迹象。比如2009年金融危机时，银行投放的几万亿地方融资平台贷款已陆续到偿还期，但不少地方融资平台却存在明显的偿债压力。

LiuYuHui argues that signs of local government debt has been out of control now.In 2009, for example, during the financial crisis,Bank loan financing platform has been put in the trillions of place to payback period,But many local financing platform has obvious debt service pressure.

　　因此，刘煜辉强调，各级政府要建立债务约束机制，即约束地方政府举债冲动，使其量力而为。他认为，如果缺乏约束机制，无论是债市资金还是银行信贷资金、民间资本的投入都难免存有风险。

so,LiuYuHui stressed,Governments at all levels must establish debt constraint mechanism,The constraints of local government debt,Make it your cloth.He thinks that,If lack of constraint mechanism,Bond funds or bank credit funds/Private capital investment are unavoidably exists risk.