后危机时代的2012年，全球经济依然并不让人省心。美国经济在年中放缓后，美联储火速推出第三轮量化宽松政策（QE3）；欧洲主权债务危机经历了上半年的波涛汹涌，在欧洲央行实施完全货币交易（OMT）后峰回路转；中国经济则在经历了两年多的持续下行之后，在2012年四季度迎来了反弹。

After the crisis in the age of 2012,The global economy still does not let a person worry.The us economy in the years after the slowdown,The fed rushed to launch a third round of quantitative easing(QE3);The European sovereign debt crisis has experienced in the first half of the waves,Completely in the European central bank to implement monetary transactions(OMT)After the master;China's economy is in after more than two years of persistent downward,In the fourth quarter of 2012 ushered in the rebound.

　　这一系列的转折点贯穿整个2012年，诸多因素交汇在一起，让人更加难以辨认方向，无疑大大增加了专家们对2012年宏观经济预测的难度。谁能在这变化莫测的背景下，最准确地预测全球和中国经济的走势呢？

The turning point of this series of throughout 2012,Many factors converge in together,Let a person more difficult to identify the direction,No doubt greatly increases the experts on the difficulty of the macroeconomic forecast in 2012.Who can under the background of this change,The most accurate predictor of global and China's economic situation?

　　《证券市场周刊》2012年“远见杯”全球宏观经济预测和中国宏观经济预测共15个奖项被11家机构所囊括，其中五个冠军分别为五家机构获得。在全球预测方面，申银万国首席宏观分析师李慧勇摘得全球经济预测冠军，中金公司首席经济学家彭文生夺得全球市场预测第一名；在中国宏观经济预测方面，中信建投证券宏观分析师胡艳妮摘得季度预测冠军，法兴银行中国经济师姚炜获得年度预测冠军，湘财证券宏观策略部副总经理罗文波夺得月度预测第一名。值得注意的是，中国农业银行(601288,股吧)金融市场部研究主管李刚同时获得中国宏观经济季度预测、年度预测和月度预测的三个亚军，体现了超强的稳定性。

[The securities market weekly.]In 2012,"Vision glasses"Global macroeconomic forecast and China's macroeconomic forecasts a total of 15 awards by 11 institutions include,Including five to five institutions respectively.In terms of global forecast,Shenyin wanguo, chief macroeconomic analyst li huiyong champions won the global economy,Cicc's chief economist wensheng peng won the global market forecast first;In terms of macroeconomic prediction in China,Citic jiantou securities analyst Hu Yanni champions won the season,Societe generale's China economist 'annual forecast championship,Zhu macro strategy, deputy general manager Luo Wenbo won the first prize in the monthly forecast.It is worth noting,Agricultural bank of China(601288,stocks)Financial markets research at li gang get quarterly forecast China's macro economy at the same time/Annual forecast and monthly forecast of three runner-up,Reflected the strong stability.

　　是什么原因使得这11家机构在众多预测者中脱颖而出，他们在宏观经济判断和预测上又有哪些独特的经验？

What had made it 11 institutions in many forecasters to stand out,They on the macroeconomic judge and predict what unique experience?

　申万中金尝鲜全球预测 All its global forecast

　　鉴于中国经济与全球经济之间的这种紧密关系，《证券市场周刊》于2012年首次开启了“远见杯”全球宏观经济预测。目前已经有国内外10多家大型机构参加，包括中国工商银行(601398,股吧)、中国银行(601988,股吧)、中国农业银行、中金公司、申银万国证券、瑞银、高盛、野村证券、渣打银行和法兴银行等。

Given the close relationship between Chinese economy and global economy,[The securities market weekly.]For the first time in 2012 opened up"Vision glasses"Global macro economic forecasts.There are more than 10 large institutions at home and abroad,Including the industrial and commercial bank of China(601398,stocks)/The bank of China(601988,stocks)/Agricultural bank of China/China international capital corporation/Shenyin wanguo securities/ubs/Goldman sachs/Nomura securities/Standard chartered bank and societe generale bank, etc.

　　在全球预测方面，分设了两个大项：全球经济预测和全球市场预测。全球经济预测主要包括欧美日（G3）的主要经济指标，全球市场预测主要包括油价、金价和主要汇率指标。采取的是季度预测的形式，每个季度初发出预测问卷，并在该月下旬回收完毕，要求机构给出该季度各经济和市场指标的预测。

In terms of global forecast,Separate the two categories:Global economic forecasts and forecasting in the global market.The global economic forecast including Europe and the United States(G3)The main economic indicators,Global market forecast mainly include prices/Gold prices and the main exchange rate index.Taking the form of the quarterly forecast,A forecast at the beginning of the questionnaire each quarter,In a month and finished late recovery,Requires agencies to given the quarter the economy and market forecast.

　　李慧勇、中国工商银行投资银行部研究中心高级分析师柳春明和彭文生分别获得全球经济预测的前三名；彭文生、瑞银投资银行高级国际经济学家安德鲁·凯茨（Andrew Cates）和渣打银行大中华区研究主管王志浩（Stephen Green）分别获得全球市场预测的前三名。

Li huiyong/Industrial and commercial bank of China investment banking research center, a senior analyst at LiuChunMing and wensheng peng won the top three global economic forecasts;Wensheng peng/Ubs investment bank senior international economist Andrew katz(Andrew Cates)And Stephen green, head of greater China research at standard chartered bank(Stephen Green)Gain global market forecast of the top three, respectively.

　　2012年是我们第一次启动全球经济预测，国内机构的经济预测准度出乎意料地好于一些外资机构，这说明国内机构对欧美经济的研究能力不可小视。李慧勇认为，“国内机构因为远离欧美等市场，可以避免更多的干扰，往往会更加客观公正，在预测全球经济方面有自己的优势；而部分外资机构尽管有地缘优势，但预测调整频繁，准确率并不高。”

2012 is the first time we start global economic forecasts,Domestic institutions of economic forecasting accuracy is unexpectedly some foreign institutions,Suggesting that domestic institutions in Europe and the United States economy research ability is significant.Li huiyong think,"Domestic institutions because away from European and American market,Can avoid more interference,Tend to be more objective and fair,In predicting the global economy has its own advantage;Despite the geographical advantages and some foreign institutions,But forecasts adjust frequently,Accuracy is not high."

　　李慧勇还介绍了申万研究团队的一些经验：建立计量模型，通过分析各数据组成部分和相关因素来预测经济指标；深入分析重点指标如个人收支、工业产值、进出口、政府采购、通胀等指标，得出其变化规律；跟踪更高频的月度、周度经济数据，将主要指标转化成季度数据，并考虑季节性和趋势值；并重视对事件性冲击的研究，因为黑天鹅和蝴蝶效应均会影响到最终的预测。

Li huiyong shen wan team also introduced some experience:Establish econometric model,Through the analysis of the data component and related factors to predict economic indicators;In-depth analysis of key indicators such as personal income and expenses/Industrial output/Import and export/Government procurement/Inflation measures such as,Its changing regularity are obtained;More high frequency tracking monthly/A weekly economic data,The main indicators into quarterly data,Taking into account seasonal and trend values;And pay more attention to the study of event shocks,Because the black swan and the butterfly effect will affect the final forecast.

　　相对于全球经济，全球市场的波动更大，预测的难度也更高，比如美元在2012年上半年大幅上升，下半年则开始回落。彭文生介绍了一些全球市场预测上的独到经验：“理论上讲，汇率的变化是由两国的经济增长差、通胀差和利差决定。汇率的长期走势和这三个因素的关系基本和理论相符。但短期来看，汇率的波动性要比理论预测的大，主要原因包括短期套利行为、央行的干预和风险偏好的变化等等。油价的走势主要取决于石油市场的基本面，即供给和需求，但其他因素，如各国政府的宏观政策、投资者风险偏好等，也会对石油价格的短期走势产生影响。”

Relative to the global economy,Greater global market volatility,The difficulty of the prediction is also higher,Such as the dollar rose sharply in the first half of 2012,In the second half began to fall.Wensheng peng introduced some unique experience on the global market forecast:"In theory,,The exchange rate change is by the two countries economic growth/Low inflation and spreads.Rate of long term relationships with these three factors and basic theory.But in the short term,Exchange rate volatility is bigger than theory predicts,Main causes include short-term arbitrage/The central bank's intervention and changes in risk appetite and so on.The trend of oil price mainly depends on the oil market fundamentals,The supply and demand,But other factors,Such as macro policies of governments/Investor appetite for risk, etc,Will also impact on short-term movements in oil price."

　　彭文进一步指出，在过去几年，和其他主要金融资产一样，风险偏好的变化很大程度上驱动了汇率的走势。2012年上半年，欧元区的不确定性对全球金融市场的影响很大，投资者风险偏好降低，对美元资产的需求增加，促使美元走强。在2012年下半年，欧债危机的不确定性显著下降，而美国的“财政悬崖”不确定性成为了主要尾部风险，造成美元逐步贬值。以后如果“财政悬崖”的尾部风险逐步消退，汇率变化会更多地回归到经济增长差、通胀差和利率差这些基本因素驱动上来。

Peng Wen further pointed out,In the past few years,And other major financial assets,Changes in risk appetite is largely driven by the exchange rate movements.In the first half of 2012,Uncertainty in the euro area had a great influence on global financial markets,Investor appetite for risk is reduced,Has increased the demand for dollar assets,Make a stronger U.S. dollar.In the second half of 2012,The uncertainty of the European debt crisis dropped significantly,While in the United States"Fiscal cliff"Uncertainty has become the main tail risks,Due to gradual dollar depreciation.If after"Fiscal cliff"The tail risk of gradually subsided,Exchange rate changes more return to economic growth/Drive up inflation and interest rate differentials are these basic factors.

　中信建投稳步前进 Citic jiantou steadily forward

　　中信建投证券可以说是“远见杯”的常客，早在2005年就夺得过中国宏观经济季度预测的第二名，之后更是多次上榜。继2011年获得季度预测的第二名后，2012年更进一步斩获季度预测的第一名。在“远见杯”10年多的历史中，中信建投证券已经累计5次获奖，尽显传统预测豪强的实力。

Citic jiantou securities is, so to speak"Vision glasses"A regular,As early as 2005 won China's macro economy second quarterly forecast,After many times on the list.After in 2011 won the second prize in the quarterly forecast,Further gains in 2012 first quarter forecast.In the"Vision glasses"In the history of more than a decade,Citic jiantou securities has accumulated 5 times won the prize,Show the strength of traditional forecasting strongmen.

　　在各分项指标的季度预测上，中信建投均有较好的表现，在GDP、工业、投资、出口和利率指标的季度预测上都位列前三。

On each sub-index quarterly forecast,Citic jiantou all have good performance,In Gross domestic product/industrial/investment/Export and interest rate indexes in the top three quarterly forecast.

　　胡艳妮认为，中信建投之所以能够在宏观预测上取得稳定的较好成绩，主要依赖于从事宏观研究工作10多年来，对国内各项宏观数据及海外经济数据的长期跟踪，并结合中信建投研究所秉承的结构主义经济周期理论。

Hu Yanni think,Citic jiantou can stable in macro forecast good grades,Mainly depends on the work in the macro research for more than 10 years,Various macro data of domestic and overseas economic long-term tracking data,Combined with the citic jiantou institute adhering to the structure of the socialist economy cycle theory.

　　在回顾2012年的宏观预测中，胡艳妮指出，2012年是政府换届的过渡期，这就决定了这期间内新的刺激政策很难出台，政策预期落空可能性较大，中央投资难以依靠；同时，在旧的房地产政策调控下，内需走弱变得更为确定，消费也难堪大任。“在这一逻辑背景下，使得我们对2012年的投资和消费形成了较为准确的预测。”

In macro prediction back in 2012,Hu Yanni pointed out,2012 is the transition period of transition,It is decided during the period of new stimulus policies are hard to come,Policy expectations,The central investment is difficult to rely on;At the same time,Under the old real estate policy,Weaker domestic demand has become more determined,Consumption also embarrassed the ears."Under the background of this logic,Make our investment and consumption to 2012 formed a relatively accurate forecasting."

　　法兴年度预测摘冠 Socgen annual forecast for hkbu

　　外资金融机构此前很少出现在“远见杯”中国宏观经济预测获奖榜单中，优胜奖长期以来都被国内机构所垄断。但继2011年美银美林拿到“远见杯”中国宏观预测奖项后，2012年另一家外资金融机构法兴银行取得上佳表现。法兴银行不仅斩获中国宏观经济年度预测的桂冠，还获得中国宏观经济季度预测的第三名。

Foreign financial institutions after rarely appears in"Vision glasses"China's macroeconomic forecasting the winning list,Winning monopoly by domestic institutions for a long time.But the bank of America merrill lynch in 2011"Vision glasses"China's macro forecast after award,In 2012, another foreign financial institutions of socgen's well.Societe generale's gains not only China's macro economy annual forecast,Also for China's macro economy third quarterly forecast.

　　在年度预测方面，除了投资和汇率指标外，法兴银行对其他指标的预测都在前10名以内，GDP、工业、消费和出口的预测都位列前三，领先优势相当明显。在季度预测方面，对GDP、消费、出口和利率指标的预测也位列前三。

In terms of annual forecast,In addition to investment and exchange rate index,Societe generale's forecast for other indicators are within the top 10,Gross domestic product/industrial/Consumption and exports prediction are the top three,Advantage is quite obvious.In terms of quarterly forecast,To Gross domestic product/consumption/Export and interest rate index forecast is in the top three.

　　这两年，外资机构在中国经济预测方面开始发力，表明他们对中国经济的重视程度开始加强。姚炜表示，由于在中国的投资越来越重要，法兴银行对中国经济的研究也一直非常重视。

These two years,Foreign institutions in China are beginning to power economic forecasts,Show their importance for China's economy began to strengthen.'said,Due to the investment more and more important in China,Societe generale's research also has been attached great importance to the Chinese economy.

　　姚炜强调，“我们非常重视对中国经济政策的判断，2012年在政策上可以说是一个拐点。过去，一旦经济下行，政策就会大幅度刺激，但2012年不一样了。在2012年初我们就预计，由于‘四万亿’的大规模刺激积累了很多风险，政策不会有大的放松。正是由于对2012年政策较为准确的判断，使得我们整体对2012年中国经济的预测比较准确。”

'stress,"We attaches great importance to China's economic policy judgment,2012 is a turning point in the policy.In the past,Once the economic downturn,Policy will greatly stimulate,But in 2012.We are expected in early 2012,Due to the‘Four trillion’The massive stimulus has accumulated a lot of risk,The relaxation of the policy will not have big.Thanks for 2012 policy more accurate judgment,Make our overall forecast for 2012, the Chinese economy is accurate."

　　湘财证券尽显黑马本色 Zhu show dark horse

　　有传统豪强，自然有黑马。2012年的黑马出在中国宏观经济月度预测上，第一次参加“远见杯”中国宏观经济预测的湘财证券一举夺得月度预测第一名，而第三名的光大证券(601788,股吧)首席宏观分析师徐高也是第一次夺得“远见杯”奖项，获得月度预测的第三名。

There are traditional powers,Nature has a dark horse.Dark horse out of 2012 on the monthly forecast of macro economy in China,For the first time"Vision glasses"China's macroeconomic forecasting zhu won first prize in the monthly forecast,And the third everbright securities(601788,stocks)High, chief macroeconomic analyst xu is won for the first time"Vision glasses"award,To third place in the monthly forecast.

　　罗文波谦虚地介绍了预测上的一些经验，“作为两年宏观研究从业者，第一年参加预测就获得月度预测的第一名，我觉得存在一定的运气成分。如果非要说点预测心得的话，那可能要归功于我两年研究过程中积累的相对较为稳健的宏观研究体系。我们的研究体系是以两套指标判断的库存周期相互嵌套，作为大的经济周期的判断框架，以货币与财政政策为前瞻指标，以经济的当期指标判断周期拐点与验证。在大的周期框架与当期指标研判的提前下，对宏观指标的预测基本可以围绕宏观经济波动的中枢移动。在这样背景下，各个指标的预测相对误差较小，以至于年度积累的月度预测较为准确。”

Luo Wenbo humbly introduced some experience on the prediction,"As a macroscopic research practitioners for two years,In the first year forecast monthly forecast in the first place,I think there is a luck.If don't want to say a point forecast result,It might due to my two years research accumulated relatively steady in the process of macroscopic research system.Our research system is two mutual nested set of indicators to judge the inventory cycle,As a big economic cycle judgment framework,Forward-looking indicators for monetary and fiscal policy,In the current period of economic indicators to judge cycle turning point and validation.In large cycle framework and index analysis of the current period in advance,Basic for the forecast of macro indicators can move around the center of macroeconomic fluctuations.Under such background,Each index of the relative prediction error is smaller,That year the accumulated monthly forecast is more accurate."