1月社会融资总量创出历史新高，比2009年3月的2.2万亿元仍多出3000多亿元。所有融资类别同比都大幅增长，而较之上月，新增人民币贷款和未贴现银行承兑汇票都出现了翻倍的增长。这表明，在政策放松和经济回升的作用之下，流动性供需两旺。

Hitting a record high total social financing in January,Than in March, 2009, 2.2 trillion yuan more than 3000 2.2 trillion yuan.All financing categories were increased significantly compared to the same,But compared with last month,New yuan loans and discount bank acceptance of draft there were doubled growth.This suggests that the,Under the policy relaxation and the economy picks up,Liquidity supply and demand two prosperous.

　　1月的人民币新增贷款再破万亿元大关，达到1.07万亿元，若按全年9万亿的信贷规模，则占到了11.9%。这表明了融资方强烈的资金需求和银行强烈的放贷冲动。经济企稳回升明确，而进一步的扩张冲动也显露无遗。

Jan yuan in new loans to one trillion yuan,Reached 1.07 trillion yuan,If the credit loans by the year 9 trillion,Accounted for 11.9%.It shows that the financiers strong capital requirements and bank lending.The economy stabilises picks up clearly,And further the expansion of the impulse.

　　从信贷结构看，企业贷款增长强于居民贷款增长；而中长期贷款增长远远强于短期贷款和票据融资增长，前者比上月增长近5000亿元，而后者比上月仅增长不足千亿元。经济增长含义的信贷结构发生了显著的改善，企业中长期贷款结束2012年年末两月的负增长，大幅新增3098亿元。企业短期融资与中长期贷款的比例，除去2012年11和12月的负值，依然在下降，这还不考虑很多企业和地方政府日益倚重债券融资作为中长期资金来源的影响。又一个投资周期或将来临？

Look from the credit structure,Enterprise loan growth is stronger than residents loan growth;The medium - and long-term lending growth far stronger than the short-term loans and bill financing growth,The former is close 500 billion yuan higher than last month,While the latter than the growth of less than one hundred billion yuan only last month.Economic growth means the credit structure of improved significantly,Enterprise medium - and long-term lending to end at the end of two months of negative growth in 2012,Sharply increased by 309.8 billion yuan.The proportion of enterprises short-term financing and long-term loans,Remove negative in November and December 2012,Still falling,That does not consider a lot of enterprises and local government increasingly relies on debt financing as long-term sources of funds.Another investment cycle - might be nigh?

　　除了居民部门的短期贷款翻倍增长之外，中长期贷款几乎翻了2倍，创下自2010年1月以来的新高，这与房地产市场量价齐升相吻合。

In addition to the resident's short-term loans doubled growth of department,Medium - and long-term lending almost over 2 times,Hit a record high since January 2010,This in conformity with the amount of the real estate market price so is.

　　另外，货币供给充裕。1月M2和M1增速都大幅反弹，特别是M1，有基数效应和翘尾因素，也与经济回升、融资增长一致。

In addition,Abundant supply of money.M2 and M1 growth has rebounded sharply in January,Especially the M1,With base effect and carryover effect,With the economy picks up/Financing growth is consistent.

　　1月新增人民币存款1.11万亿元，较之上月减少4700亿元，其中财政存款尚增加3353亿元，未现年终突击花钱；而居民和企业部门的存款减少较多，特别是企业部门，减少过万亿元。

In January new deposit 1.11 trillion RMB yuan,Compared with last month to reduce 470 billion yuan,The fiscal deposit is still an increase of 335.3 billion yuan,Not now annual assault to spend money;The residents and the corporate sector savings to reduce more,Especially the business sector,Reduced over one trillion yuan.

　　各资金市场的价格总体处于回落状态。央行进一步推出公开市场短期流动性调节工具，以及外汇占款改善，银行间资金面平稳。

The capital market prices in a down state as a whole.Central bank open market further short-term liquidity adjustment tool,As well as foreign exchange to improve,Interbank financing area smoothly.

　　信贷市场的利率在2012年四季度总体继续回落。而金融机构的超额准备金率在2012年底超过了3%。银行的放贷能力短期仍然是充足的，存款准备金率的下调则并非必须的。银行理财预期年收益率在2012年底有所上升后，进入2013年持续缓慢回落。

Credit market interest rates in the fourth quarter of 2012 general continue to fall.But the excess ratio of financial institutions in late 2012, more than 3%.Banks' ability to lend short term is still adequate,The RRR cut is not a must.Bank financial forecast year yields rose at the end of 2012,In 2013 continued to slow down.

　　负债扩张是稳增长政策目标的要求，其后果是存量流动性过剩的状态延续。应该避免一种错误的观点，即只要有效控制了信贷，那么通胀便可高枕无忧。存量流动性过剩，经济缺乏必要的出清，政府的支出干预越来越多，通货膨胀和资产价格上涨的风险就如影随形，稍不注意就会旧疾复发。目前一线城市的房地产价格已经明显上涨。

The goal of debt expansion is steady growth policy requirements,Continuation of the consequences is the liquidity surplus stock status.A mistake should be avoided,As long as the effective control of the credit,So inflation can rest easy.Stock of excess liquidity,Lack of necessary clearing,More and more government spending intervention,The risk of inflation and asset prices,A little do not pay attention to is old disease recurrence.Now real estate prices in first-tier cities have obviously increases.

　　在旧体制下负债扩张的另一个后果是财政金融风险。非信贷融资对信贷融资的替代，既是金融自由化的必然趋势，也使得银行体系的潜在风险得以部分转出，加剧“影子银行”的风险。没有改革和出清，就没有风险化解，只有风险转移和扩散。

In debt expansion under the old system is another consequence of the financial risk.The credit financing of credit financing alternatives,Is the inevitable trend of financial liberalization,Also makes the potential risk of the banking system to transfer part,intensified"The shadow banking"The risk of.Without reform and clearing,There is no risk,Only the risk transfer and diffusion.

　　就货币政策而言，资金成本虽然较高，但是通胀和资产价格的形势，降低了价格工具的空间，数量工具受到倚重。2012年的一个特点是，存款准备金率工具的使用低于预期，而逆回购大行其道。我们认为，存款准备金率工具和逆回购都代表了政策中性的含义，预计2013年仍有2-3次降准。尽管2013年9万亿元信贷和13%的M2增长目标看似不高，但流动性的总量政策目前看来有些宽松。

In terms of monetary policy,Although the cost of capital is higher,But the situation of inflation and asset prices,Space to lower the price of the tool,Number of tools is dependent on.In 2012, is a characteristic,The use of reserve requirements tool below expectations,The reverse repurchase is popular.We believe that,Tools and reverse repurchase in the reserve requirement ratio represents the meaning of neutral policy,Is expected in 2013 still have 2-3 times fall.Despite the $9 trillion credit and 2013 M2 growth target of 13% looks like is not high,But the amount of liquidity policy now appears to be some loose.

　　就财政政策而言，预计赤字将扩大，但并不足够。需要明白的是，单独的积极财政政策的使用，并不能避免宽松货币政策的各种负面后果，财政政策要有用，可能还是要货币化。融资平台放松和城镇化的加快推进，可能就是2008年“四万亿”政策的翻版；融资平台的举债和借贷没有本质区别，尽管前者可能市场约束更强，对银行体系的安全性危害更小。

In terms of fiscal policy,Deficit is expected to expand,But it is not enough.Need to understand is that,The use of separate active fiscal policy,And can't avoid loose monetary policies of all kinds of negative consequences,Fiscal policy should be useful,May still need to monetize.Relax and urbanization accelerate the financing platform,May be 2008 years"Four trillion"The counterpart of the policy;There is no essential difference between borrowing and lending financing platform,While the former may be more market discipline,Less harmful to the safety of the banking system.

　　何谓堰塞湖？重要的不是绝对水量，而是相对位置。从整体负债率与其他国家的简单比较，似乎还有加杠杆的空间；但在目前这个起点上，回避改革加杠杆，只能带来更多的风险隐患。

What is meant by the lake?What will matter is not absolute,But the relative position.From the overall debt ratio and the simple comparison of other countries,Seems still has room to add leverage;But at this point,Shy away from reform and leverage,Can only lead to more risk of hidden dangers.

　　作者为中信建投证券宏观分析师，2012年度“远见杯”中国宏观经济季度预测第一名

The author for macroeconomic analyst at citic jiantou securities,The year in 2012"Vision glasses"China's macro economy quarterly forecast first