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市政债+资产证券化 金融杠杆撬动城镇化融资--亲稳网络舆情监控室
2013-03-08
本报记者 丁玉萍 北京报道
Our reporter Ding Yuping reports from Beijing
“城镇化”概念持续升温,涉及到如何“积极稳妥”推动,最需解决的是融资难题。
"urbanization"Concept is on the rise,How involved"Actively yet prudently proceed"promote,The most need to solve the financing problems.
根据国家统计局的数据,我国城镇化率从2002年的39.09%到2012年的52.57%,过去十年以平均1.3个百分点的速度递增。国家统计局的一个课题组曾预计,到2020年,我国城镇化水平为60.57%,达到中等发达国家水平。
According to the national bureau of statistics,China's urbanization rate from 39.09% in 2002 to 52.57% in 2012,Increasing at an average rate of 1.3% over the past ten years.The national bureau of statistics of a task group had expected,By 2020,Our country urbanization level of 60.57%,Reach level of moderately developed countries.
未来的十年,我国城镇化率可能将以平均每年1个百分点的速度递增,而城镇化率每增加一个百分点就意味着有超过1000万的农村人口进城。粗略计算,十年间相关的投资可能达数十万亿元。
In the future ten years,Urbanization rate in China are likely to be increasing at a rate of 1% per year on average,The urbanization rate of one percent increase means that there are more than 10 million rural population into the city.Rough calculation,10 years relevant probably amounted to hundreds of thousands of investment of one hundred million yuan.
撬动城镇化融资的杠杆,谁会扮演最主流的角色?中央、地方财政、地方融资平台、商业银行、政策性银行等,谁会成为最主要的资金来源?哪些新型金融工具将被委以重任?对于来自金融领域的“两会”代表、委员们来说,城镇化中的融资模式是他们最关注的一大课题。
Leveraged financing leverage of urbanization,Who will play the role of the mainstream?The central/Local finance/Local financing platform/Commercial Banks/Policy Banks, etc.,Who will be the main source of funds?What kind of new financial instruments will be entrusts with an important task?For from the financial sector"lianghui"representative/The members,,Financing model of urbanization is a big topic. They pay most attention to.
一些理论共识在微妙地形成,比如对金融工具的运用,发挥债市的作用,以及在城镇化融资进程中,避免新的地方债务风险。
Some theoretical consensus on the subtle form,Such as the use of financial instruments,Play the role of the bond market,And in the financing process of urbanization,Avoid new local debt risk.
与2008年那一轮经济刺激计划中的融资主体不同,未来,银行信贷、地方融资平台或不再是推动城镇化的主要资金来源。
With the 2008 round of financing main body is different in the economic stimulus plan,The future,Bank credit/Local financing platforms, or no longer promote urbanization is the main financing source.
全国政协委员、中国人民银行行长周小川6日表示,在城镇化进程中,涉及城镇化的城市基础设施和公用设施方面的融资,可以借鉴国际上的金融工具,如资产证券化、市政债等。他表示,银行贷款也是融资的一条渠道。“但首先应该考虑的是城镇化选择什么样的工具,其次才是如何提供金融服务。”
The national political consultative conference (CPPCC)/6 the people's bank of China governor zhou xiaochuan said,In the process of urbanization,Involved in urbanization of urban infrastructure and public facilities in terms of finance,Can draw lessons from international financial instruments,Such as asset securitization/Municipal bonds, etc..He said,Bank lending is financing a channel."But first should consider is the urbanization to choose what kind of tool,Second is how to provide financial services."
全国政协委员、国家开发银行董事长陈元7日表示,发展新型城镇化,地方政府要控制负债率,让规划先行,避免“造城运动”与地产泡沫。
The national political consultative conference (CPPCC)/7 CDB chairman Chen yuan said,Development of new type of urbanization,The local government to control the debt ratio,Make planning first,avoid"City building"With the real estate bubble.
学界观点不谋而合。中国农业银行(601288,股吧)首席经济学家向松祚6日接受本报记者专访时表示,推动城镇化,需要发展大量的金融工具,来推进产业的整合和创新。从机构上说,“包括债券、信托、理财、保险、私募、VC、金融衍生品这些金融工具都应该鼓励发展,”从金融手段来说,“通过杠杆收购、MBO、过桥贷款来促进产业的整合。”
Academic point of view coincides with mine.Agricultural bank of China(601288,stocks)Xiang songzuo 6, chief economist with the financial times reporters in an interview,Promote urbanization,Need to develop a large number of financial instruments,To promote the integration of industry and innovation.Says from the agency,"Including the bond/trust/financial/insurance/private/VC/Financial derivatives should encourage the development of these financial instruments,"From the financial means,"Through a leveraged buyout/MBO/A bridge loan to promote industry integration."
“撬动城镇化的主要杠杆是金融。”向松祚指出,这包括三个方面,政府的金融杠杆、金融工具创新、个人消费金融引导。“未来银行信贷不会成为推动城镇化的主要资金来源。”
"Leverage urbanization lever is largely financial."Xiang songzuo pointed out,It includes three aspects,The government's financial leverage/Financial tool innovation/Individual consumer guide."The future main sources of funds for the bank credit will not become to promote urbanization."
债市效用“异军突起” The bond market utility"Rise of the"
政府工作报告提出,“城镇化是我国现代化建设的历史任务,与农业现代化相辅相成。要遵循城镇化的客观规律,积极稳妥推动城镇化健康发展。”
The government work report,"Urbanization is the historical task for the construction of modernization in our country,Complement each other and agriculture modernization.Must follow the objective laws of urbanization,We will actively yet prudently push urbanization healthy development."
“城镇化”概念造势之时,各方资金压力也显现。国家统计局预期今年城镇化率将达53.37%。
"urbanization"When the concept of spin,All money pressure is also revealed.The national bureau of statistics forecast urbanization rate will reach 53.37% this year.
从中央到地方,政府资金来源无非四个方面,一般税收、土地财政、融资平台贷款以及债券融资。在前三个方面发生很大形势变化的情况下,债市的作用开始突出。
From central to local levels,No more than four aspects government funding sources,General tax/Land finance/Loans and bonds financing financing platform.In the first three occur great change situation,The role of the bond market began to stand out.
2011年全国公共财政预算收入10.37万亿元,其中,中央本级收入5.13万亿元,地方本级收入5.24万亿元,仅靠政府当期收入推进城镇化,资金压力极重。过去一年陆续披露的财政收支数据也显示,多数地方财政收入告别高增长,同比增幅大幅回落。
In 2011 the national public finance budget revenue was 10.37 trillion yuan,Among them,The central revenue was 5.13 trillion yuan at the corresponding level,Local level income 5.24 trillion yuan,Only by the government in the current income to promote urbanization,Capital pressure is very heavy.Over the past year been disclosed in the financial revenue and expenditure data is also displayed,Most of the local fiscal revenue farewell to high growth,Year-on-year growth dropped sharply.
同时土地财政难以持续,地方融资平台潜在风险仍然堪忧,“卖地收入寅吃卯粮的情况还很严峻;地方融资平台贷款虽然现在有所增加,但能增加多少难说,银行对地方融资平台的态度总体还是谨慎的。”向松祚指出。
At the same time land finance cannot last forever,The potential risk is still local financing platform,"Land sales revenue deficit spending is also very serious;Loan although now increased local financing platform,But can add how much hard to say,Overall is wary of Banks to local financing platform."Xiang songzuo pointed out.
向表示,“未来我们要撬动城镇化,从政府的角度而言,可能只有一个出路,即更多地用债券的手段替代税收手段。靠"征税+卖地+贷款"的政府融资模式,肯定不行。”
To the presentation,"We want to leverage the urbanization in the future,From the point of the government,May be only one way out,The more alternative tax methods by means of the bond.by"Tax, land sales and loans"The government financing mode,Must not."
这意味着国债、公司债、市政债的齐头推进。向松祚认为,“长远看,市政债、公司债要大幅放开。”
This means that the national debt/Corporate bonds/Municipal bonds keep advancing.Xiang songzuo think,"The long run,Municipal bonds/Corporate bonds to drastic liberalisation."
转变政府融资方式、促进城镇化,市政债早已被赋予极大想象力。周小川此前曾提出“市政债和财产税搭配”的做法,“可以达到城镇化在时间轴上的平移,也可以达到约束力在时间轴上的平移。”
Transformation of the mode of government financing/To promote the urbanization,Municipal bonds have been endowed with great imagination.Zhou xiaochuan had earlier suggested"Municipal bonds and property"The practice of,"Urbanization can be achieved in the translation on the timeline,Also can achieve binding in the translation on the timeline."
金融工具、金融主体多元化 Financial instruments/Diversification of financial
城镇化推进进程需要解决产业整合、发展农业经济等经济结构的问题。向松祚提出,“我们需要发展大量的金融工具,创新金融手段去推动产业的整合和创新,推动农业的现代化、规模化、集约化。”
Advancing urbanization process needs to solve industry consolidation/Economic structure of the problem such as development of agricultural economy.Xiang songzuo is proposed,"We need to develop a large number of financial instruments,Innovative financial instruments to promote industry integration and innovation,Promote the modernization of agriculture/scale/intensive."
这与周小川的观点异曲同工。周小川6日同时提示,涉及任何金融工具,都应该首先建立规则,“有些需要设立,有些需要调整,不是说某个金融工具看着不错,马上就能发挥作用”。
This with Mr. Zhou's opinion.Zhou xiaochuan, 6 tips at the same time,Involve any financial instruments,Should first establish rules,"Some need to set up a,Some need to adjust,Not to say that a certain financial instruments looked good,Can work immediately".
信贷以外的金融产品需要更多机会。“债券、保险、信托、理财、私募、VC,这些产品都应该鼓励发展。”向松祚分析,“我国当前的金融机构中,银行体系资产过于庞大,导致社会资源配置的效率下降。银行承担了过多的金融职能,也承担了更多的风险。”
Credit outside financial products need more opportunities."bonds/insurance/trust/financial/private/VC,Should encourage the development of these products."Xiang songzuo analysis,"The current financial institutions in our country,The banking system assets is too big,Resulting in a decline in the efficiency of the social resources allocation.Banks taking too much financial functions,Are taking more risks."
此外,资产证券化、金融衍生品也是金融工具多元化需要积极探索的方向。“资产证券化解决的是资产的流动性问题,金融最核心的东西就是流动性,搞活了流动性,也就分散了风险。”
In addition,Asset securitization/Derivatives are financial instruments need to actively explore the direction of diversification."Asset securitization is to solve the liquidity problems,Finance is at the core of liquidity,Improving the liquidity,Can spread risk."
城镇化融资的金融主体也当大力拓宽。“我们的监管思维、监管体系要做一个调整,多鼓励银行体系外其他金融机构的作用。小贷公司、第三方支付、面向县级城镇的小型金融公司等这些新兴金融体要充分放开。”向松祚建议。
Urbanization of financing financial main body when greatly widened."Our regulatory thinking/The regulatory system to do a adjustment,Encourage more outside the banking system, the role of other financial institutions.Small loan companies/The third party payment/County town oriented small financial company, etc. These emerging financial body should fully let go."Xiang songzuo advice.
民建中央《关于深化配套改革推进城镇化可持续健康发展的提案》提出,深化城镇建设投融资体制改革,建立多元化、多渠道的资金供给模式,通过政策引导提高民间资本参与城市建设的积极性。
Committee of the central[To further the reform of form a complete set of urbanization sustainable healthy development of the proposal]Put forward,We will deepen reform of the urban construction investment and financing system,Establish diversified/Multi-channel model of money supply,Through policy guidance to improve the enthusiasm of private capital to participate in urban construction.
新型城镇化推进或让政策性银行再获机遇。“要高度重视政策性金融机构的作用,部分项目可以由政策性金融机构先推动,到一定程度后商业银行等再介入。”向松祚表示。
New urbanization promote opportunities or make policy Banks again."To attach great importance to the role of policy-based financial institutions,Part of the project can be caused by the policy financial institutions to promote first,To a certain extent after commercial Banks to step in."Xiang songzuo said.
陈元7日表示,国开行在几乎每个县城都有贷款点,以支持新型城镇化。此前他在国开行2013年度工作会上表示,“今年一半以上的新增贷款将投向城镇化及配套建设。”
Chen said 7,The CDB loan in almost every county has a point,To support the new urbanization.After he was in the 2013 annual work conference that CDB,"More than half of new loans this year will be to urbanization and construction of form a complete set."
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