拜年的吉利话说了很多，但并没有给蛇年的A股带来吉祥。正如我们在上期每月趋势观察里所说的，一月份的涨势太过喜人，总感觉有风险临近。果然在节后的第二个交易日就出现大幅调整，原因在于一则传闻——更加严厉的房地产调控政策将出台。紧接着2月21日，“国五条”出台，股市再度暴跌。

Happy New Year auspicious words a lot,But did not bring good luck to snake A shares.As we spoke in the monthly trend observation of the previous period,A rally in January too well,Total felling have a risk.Sure enough after the second day of a sharp adjustment,Because a rumour - tougher real estate control policy will be issued.Then on February 21,"Five countries"issued,Stocks tumbled again.

　　在蛇年里，政策面对于个人资产的影响可能超过以往，这一方面是由于决策层的正式换届，另一方面也是由于政经改革到了十字路口，面临重大抉择，而三月份的全国两会上肯定会有端倪显现，而如今资产价格的异动在某种程度上就是在和政策对赌。

In the snake,Policy in the face of influence of personal assets may be more than ever before,This was partly due to formal transition policy makers,On the other hand is due to political and economic reform came to a crossroads,Faced with important choices,And at the national two sessions in March there must be a clue,And now the change to the asset prices to some extent is bet in and policy.

　没有永远的神话 There are no eternal myth

　　“国五条”只是定调2013年楼市调控，具体的调控办法还没有出台。到底会不会有更严厉的举措呢？就笔者的观点来看：肯定会。原因有二：一是现在房市太疯狂，二是如果不控制，危险太大。

"Five countries"Just pitch on the property market in 2013,Specific regulatory measures has not come.What will there be tougher measures?The author's point of view:will.There are two reasons:One is too crazy housing now,The second is if you don't control,Risk is too big.

　　说房市疯狂，尽管一月份的成交量较之前大幅放大，价格也有所上升，但显然没有恢复到历史最疯狂的时刻。而这里所说的“太疯狂”，则有另一层含义——人们买房的热情太疯狂。

Said the housing market madness,Although January trading volume significantly enlarge than before,A rise in the price,But apparently not back to the history of the most crazy time.And here"Too crazy",Have another layer of meaning, the enthusiasm of the people to buy houses too crazy.

　　过年回家，父母唠叨最多的除了找对象结婚，恐怕就是房子的事了。突然发现，房子在中国还真不能简单理解为消费品和金融资产，它几乎凝聚了中国人的所有朴素情感。几千年来，中国人成功的标志是什么：一是五子登科，二是衣锦还乡，这两点都与房子紧密相连。

New Year's day home,Most parents nag in addition to looking for married object,I'm afraid is the house.Suddenly found that,House in China is not easy to understand for consumer goods and financial assets,It condenses the Chinese almost all simple emotion.For thousands of years,Chinese is a mark of success:One is the WuZiDengKe,2 it is to return home,These two points are closely connected with the house.

　　孩子、妻子、位子、票子，都离不开房子。证明位子需要房子，否则不会有那么多的房叔房姐，积累票子需要房子，现在证明一个人成功的唯一标准就是在大城市拥有几套房子，收入高低都无所谓。即便你不这样想，你的父母会这样想，因为你的父母的邻里亲朋都这样想。没有房子当然娶不了老婆，因为岳父岳母不答应，所以有国外研究表明，单身汉太多是中国房价居高不下的原因。而即便找到老婆，在教育资源稀缺的大城市里，子女教育也与房子捆绑在一起。无怪于现在孩子收到压岁钱时都被教导要存起来以后买房子，房子已经贯穿了中国人的生老病死，并与中国固有的圈子文化环环相扣。

children/His wife/seat/ticket,Cannot leave the house.Prove that seat need to house,Otherwise there won't be much room uncle room elder sister,Accumulation of tickets need to house,Now the only standard to prove one's success is to have a few houses in big cities,It doesn't matter a high salary.Even if you don't think so,Your parents will be think so,Because of your parents, neighbors and relatives are think so.Don't have a house, of course, not the wife,Because my father-in-law is not allow,So there are study abroad,A bachelor too much is the cause of the high house prices in China.And even if find a wife,In cities scarce education resources,Their children's education and also a house together.No wonder the children receive lucky money is now taught to save to buy a house later,House is through the physical of the Chinese people,And interlocking circles with Chinese inherent culture.

　　衣锦还乡是古代中国文人取得功名利禄后炫耀一番的主要形式，而现代社会随着城市化进程的推进，“成功人士”在城市里为父母多买几套房，则被认为是有出息。所以只要是第一套房还贷压力不大的年轻人，都会再想着买第二套、第三套。这与西方国家年轻人喜欢哪个城市就去哪个城市租房，与父母是完全独立的个体是完全不同的。当中国社会的中坚力量的子女逐渐长大，首套房贷压力减轻，在房产调控这根弦稍有放松时，立刻迸发出极大的购房热情。

Return is the ancient Chinese literati after gaining fame fortune off the main form,Along with the advancement of urbanization and modern society,"A successful person"Buy more suite for the parents in the city,It is supposed to be.So as long as it is the first suite loan pressure is young people,Will be thinking about buying a second set again/The third set.The young people like to go to which city and the western countries which city rent,And parents are completely independent individuals is completely different.As the backbone of the Chinese society of children grow up gradually,The first mortgage relief,When the real estate regulation this string a relaxation,The great buyers immediately burst into enthusiastic.

　　于是，笔者注意到身边的几个案例：有事业碰到瓶颈的中年女性，放弃了继续折腾的念头，开始节衣缩食买第二套房。有几乎没工作过的家庭妇女，用丈夫和父母的钱又买了两套房。房子是炫耀资本、是安全保障，有时甚至是救命稻草，当然是在欲望都市里彷徨无依的心灵与情感的救命稻草。

so,I noticed several cases around:Have a career encountered bottleneck of middle-aged women,Gave up the idea of more,Tightened to buy second homes.Have worked almost no family women,With her husband and their parents' money and bought two apartments.House is to show off the capital/Is a security,Sometimes even a life-saving straw,Hesitate in desire city, of course with the mind and the emotion of the lifeline.

　　西方经济学是解释不了中国的房价问题的，因为有太多的心理、情感与文化因素。这也导致中国人的购房热情在某种程度上和购买力是脱节的，也就是浩浩荡荡的购房大军中很多是过着非常拮据的生活，这也正是风险所在。如果不调控，很多人在疯抢房子时其实赌上自己的身家性命，也让社会矛盾愈发激化——有些人不费吹灰之力就拥有多套住房，有些人竭尽全力但难有安居之所。如果加大力度调控，特别是用房产税这种市场手段，又会将很多房奴推入绝境。所以，扩大房产税征收范围的说法一直甚嚣尘上，却迟迟不见正式出台，可见决策层之难。

Western economics is to explain the housing problem in China,Because there are too many psychological/Emotional and cultural factors.This also leads to the Chinese buying enthusiasm to some extent and purchasing power is disconnected,Many of the mighty army of buying is lived a very poor life,This is what risks.If you don't control,Many people rushed to the house when it bet on their own personal lives,Also let social contradictions increasingly intensified - some people has many homes is a breeze,Some people go to great lengths to but hard to have a settled place.If increasing regulation,Especially in the property tax means this market,And will be a lot of mortgage slave into the wall.so,Expanding the scope of the property tax levy has bested,But has not officially issued,Visible policy makers.

　　房产神话还会持续下去吗？只能说这个世界没有永远的神话。看看茅台(600519,股吧)酒吧，这个一度是国人心中永恒的经典、基金公司的宠儿，也会因塑化剂风波和对公款吃喝消费的抑制而跌落神坛。还有黄金，一直以来被认为是对抗通胀的最佳武器，几乎每到逢年过节必涨，而在这个春节期间却大幅跳水。凡事盛极而衰，是因为在势头好的时候种种的问题和缺陷都被掩盖，不仅冲昏了投资者的头脑也蒙蔽了他的双眼，一旦形势逆转就会引出一片惊叹：当初怎么就没意识到这些问题呢！房产会不会也是如此呢？

Real estate myth will continue?Can only say that the world no eternal myth.Look at the maotai(600519,stocks)bar,This was once a Chinese heart the eternal classic/The darling of the fund company,Also because of the storm and plasticizing agent on the inhibition of public funds to eat and drink consumption falling and shrines.As well as gold,Has long been considered the best weapon against inflation,Almost every will rise every year for the festival,But during the Spring Festival is plunging.Boom-bust in all things,Because in good momentum of all sorts of problems and defects were covered,Not only by the investor's mind also hoodwinked his eyes,Once the situation reversed, leads to a slice of wonder:Why is not aware of these problems!Real estate will also is such?

末日论后警惕倒春寒 Doom guard after pollen

　　春节期间有两条新闻引起大家关注，一个是一颗小行星从地球旁掠过，另一个是一颗陨石降落俄罗斯。末日论刚刚过去不久，这些“天外来客”又将人惊出一身冷汗。当然末日邪说不足信，但却反映这样一种现象：很多时候，人们预言的危机往往可以避免，因为都紧绷着神经应对，一旦感觉危机已过而松弛下来，危险才真正降临。历次重大的金融风暴都有这样的规律。

During the Spring Festival there are two news cause attention,One is an asteroid pass from the earth,Another is a meteorite landed in Russia.Doom past soon,these"Visitors from outer space"And will people surprised out in a cold sweat.Of course end of deception are lies,But it gives such a phenomenon:Most of the time,People predicted the crisis often can be avoided,Because of the neural response to all tight,Once feel the crisis has passed and relax,Dangerous really.All previous significant financial turmoil have such regularity.

　　应该说，进入2013年以来，无论是宏观经济还是股市，都显得春意盎然、生机勃勃，不少人预言盛夏将至。而春节后的几次暴跌，却让人意识到“倒春寒”少不了，是否进入下一场严冬都未可知。

Should say,Entered since 2013,Both macroeconomic and stock market,Seems the awaken of spring is abundant/vitality,Many people predicted that summer will come.But several times after the Chinese New Year has plummeted,Have been aware of that"pollen"without,Whether to enter the next winter is not clear.

　　中国经济结构的调整已经初见成效。居民收入占GDP的比重开始上升，居民消费占GDP的比重同样发生逆转，民间消费和政府消费加起来占2011年至2012年中国产值增量的一半以上。另一方面，贸易顺差和经常账户顺差都已稳步大幅收缩。2007年两项顺差分别达到国内生产总值的7.6%和10.1%，2012年都低于GDP的3%。中国经济依赖出口和投资拉动的论调可以做些修正了。

China's economic structure adjustment have begun to pay off.Household income as a share of GDP began to rise,Household consumption as a share of GDP also reversed,Private consumption and government consumption together account for 2011 to 2012, more than half of Chinese GDP increment.On the other hand,Trade surplus and current-account surplus have steadily shrank dramatically.In 2007 two surplus reached 7.6% of gross domestic product and 7.6%, respectively,Less than 3% of GDP in 2012.China's economic reliance on exports and fixed investment argument can do.

　　结构调整见成效不意味着解决了那些潜藏的深层次危机，如贫富差距扩大、资产泡沫膨胀、政府债务负担、通货膨胀再现等。“国五条”定调了2013年房产调控趋紧，房产税扩大对于抑制房产泡沫意义重大，这会很大程度上影响个人的投资决策。房产税也是平衡贫富差距的重要举措。除此之外，还会开征社会保障税和推进个人所得税的改革，一系列的税制改革对个人财富带来一定的冲击。

Structure adjustment results don't mean to solve the hidden in the deep crisis,Such as the widening gap between the rich and poor/Asset bubbles inflating/The government's debt burden/Inflation representation, etc."Five countries"Pitch the property tight control in 2013,The property tax to expand to curb real estate bubble is of great significance,This will largely affect the individual's investment decisions.Property tax is also the important measures to balance the gap between rich and poor.In addition,Can also levying social security tax and promote the reform of personal income tax,A series of tax reform on personal wealth brings a certain impact.

　　通货膨胀的苗头亦开始显现出来，众多机构预测，2013年CPI的涨幅将接近3%。中国央行在近期重启了暂停八个月的正回购工具，以缓解潜在的通货通胀压力，2013年在“宽财政、紧货币”政策组合下，货币政策会“紧中有松”，但在遇到重大的政策冲击时，比如房产调控的加码，像2009年那样通过宽松货币政策来救市的局面不会再现，这也是我们认为股指难以平稳向上的原因。

The signs of inflation also began to emerge,Many institutions predict,CPI rise will be close to 3% in 2013.The people's bank of China in the recent resumption of the suspension of eight months is repo tool,Potential inflation to ease inflationary pressures,In 2013,"Wide fiscal/Tight monetary"Under the policy combination,Monetary policy would be"Tight there is loose",But in case of significant policy shocks,Such as real estate regulation and control of overweight,As they did in 2009 by easing monetary policy to rescue the situation will not reappear,This is why we believe that the stock index is difficult to smooth upward.

　　三月份的两会，是对一些重大政策定调的时候，能否下大力度解决那些深层次的危机，还是在既得利益集团的阻力下半途而废而陷入中等收入陷阱。在这个抉择时刻，资本市场必然会有阵阵寒意来袭，但我们相信，推进经济结构调整的步伐不会停止。

Two sessions in March,Is a major policy set the tone for some time,Whether endeavoring to solve the crisis in the deep,Or under the resistance of vested interests fall into the middle-income trap fall by the wayside.In this decision points,Capital market will inevitably have a chill through boardrooms, and incoming,But we believe,Promote the pace of economic restructuring will not stop.

　　股市近两个月来的上涨行情将告一段落，之前的上涨，银行股等一些权重股功不可没，这波估值修复已经基本完成，未来中小盘股更有机会。具体哪些中小盘股，还是要紧扣城镇化的脉络，发掘那些真正受益于城镇化，为增量城市居民提供更好的产品和服务的上市公司。

The rise in the past two months stock market will come to an end,Before rising,Banks and other heavyweight,This wave of valuation repair has been completed,Small-cap stocks are more opportunity in the future.Specific what small-cap stocks,Is closely related to the context of urbanization,Discover the real benefit from urbanization,For incremental city residents to provide better products and services of the listed companies.

　　而在国际环境方面，刚刚结束的G20会议上，日元成为焦点，要警惕日元持续贬值对中国带来的资产泡沫危机。而另一方面，由于美国的制造业在持续复苏，量化宽松政策可能退出，美元将持续走强，这对于黄金以及其他大宗商品来说，都不是一个好兆头。

In respect of the international environment,Just after the G20 meeting,The spotlight,To guard against the yen continued depreciating asset bubble brought about by the crisis to China.On the other hand,Due to the manufacturing industry in a sustained recovery in the United States,Quantitative easing may exit,Dollar will continue strong,This for gold and other commodities,Is not a good one million.

　　总之，2013年将是政策定乾坤，而三月份是把握政策走向的关键时间段。抉择时刻，控制仓位、警惕风险是必须谨记的。

In a word,Policy will be set around 2013,Which is the key to grasp the policy period in March.Choice moment,Control positions/Vigilance should be kept in mind is that of risk.