康怡 柯迪

Kang Yi the kody

　　虽然3月5日公布的外汇占款数据纠正了此前关于货币政策正在开始收紧的判断。但是在同一天，政府工作报告把2013年CPI预期目标定为3.5%，同时M2的增长预期定为13%。

Although foreign exchange data released on March 5, corrected the previous judgment about is starting to tighten monetary policy.But on the same day,The government work report in 2013 CPI target set at 3.5%,At the same time M2 growth expectations at 13%.

　　有分析人士认为中国政府及央行或许不会在年内再度放宽货币政策措施，货币政策适度收缩的时间窗口最早可能在4月，在使用工具上可能更多采取严格监管、回购和发行央行票据等方式，而不是调整利率或准备金率。

Some analysts think the Chinese government and the central bank monetary easing measures again maybe not this year,Monetary policy moderate contraction time window as early as possible in April,In the use of tools may take more strict supervision/Repurchase and way of issuing central bank bills, etc,Rather than adjusting interest rates or the reserve requirement ratio.

　

　CPI目标：3.5% The CPI target:3.5%

　　对于2月的CPI（居民消费价格指数)，有机构公布的预测数据显示，2月CPI同比增速在3%左右,可能成为近半年来的高点。

For February's CPI(The consumer price index),Have released by the agency forecast figures show,February year-on-year growth at around 3%,May be past to high.

　　高盛/高华中国宏观经济学家宋宇表示，2月CPI通胀率可能会受到春节效应的影响而反弹，重大节日之前食品价格一般都会上涨，春节之前尤其如此。他预计CPI同比增幅将从1月的2.0%升至2.8%。

/ Goldman sachs gao hua yu song said China's macro economists,February CPI inflation rate may be affected by the Spring Festival effect and rebound,Major food prices tend to rise before holiday,Especially before the Spring Festival.He expects the CPI year-on-year growth will rise to 2.8% from 2.0% in January.

　　不过，就目前公布的其他数据而言，这种上升的趋势难以持续。根据农业部市场监测调度最新数据显示，今年第9周（2013年2月25日-3月3日）“全国农产品批发价格指数”为205.14，比前一周下降8.38个点；“全国菜篮子产品批发价格指数”为205.83，比前一周下降10.00个点。

but,In terms of other figures released by the current,The rising trend is unsustainable.According to the ministry of agriculture market monitoring scheduling according to the latest figures,9 weeks this year(On February 25, 2013 - March 3)"The wholesale price index of agricultural products"205.14,8.38 points lower than the week before;"The national food basket product wholesale price index"205.83,10.00 points lower than the week before.

　　考虑上述因素，央行货币政策委员会委员、北大国家发展研究院教授宋国青认为3月CPI数据可能较低。

Considering the above factors,Bank of England's monetary policy committee/National development research institute of Peking University professor unavoidable thinks march CPI data may be lower.

　　目前市场仍然没有定论的是：通胀是否会在下半年再度上升。

At present the market is still not settled yet:Whether inflation will rise again in the second half.

　　宋国青认为，总体来看今年通胀压力较小，而货币政策紧缩压力也不大。他还特别提及限制公款消费可能在一定程度上会限制总需求，有助于抑制价格上涨。

Unavoidable that,Overall inflation pressure is small this year,While monetary policy tightening has less pressure.He also mention limit consumption may to a certain extent can limit the aggregate demand,To help curb prices.

　　量化CPI中由于遏制大吃大喝而产生的影响并不容易，不过宋宇通过情景分析，得出的结论是由于反腐倡廉带来的节约令可能令CPI通胀率下降接近1%。“虽然上述估算存在很大的不确定性,但是这一情景分析显示这一反腐倡廉对通胀的影响可能是相当显著的。”他表示。

Quantitative effects due to curb binge in the CPI is not easy,But song yutong scenario analysis,Concluded is due to the anti-corruption savings from may cause a decrease in CPI inflation rate close to 1%."Although there is very great uncertainty in the estimates,But the scenario analysis shows that the anti-corruption is likely to be quite a significant impact on inflation."He said.

　　政府工作报告公布的2013年全年通胀目标是3.5%，这也为货币政策的可能走向提供了另外一种解读的视角。

Government work report released in 2013 full-year inflation target is 3.5%,That monetary policy might be to provide a different perspective.

　　兴业银行(601166,股吧)的鲁政委认为，CPI预期值自2005年以来经常发生变化，但总体依然有规律可循：除2008年是直接援引了上年实际CPI水平外，其他年份基本上是按如下办法制订的，即当上年CPI实际值低于3.0%时，一般按照3.0%的预期值给；当CPI超3.0%　时，一般按4.0%的预期值给。“今年本可继续沿用去年4.0%的预期目标，而结果却刻意撤回到了3.5%，这暗示了政策当局对通胀的高度警惕，也折射出政策宽松的空间其实是相当有限的。”鲁政委说。

Societe generale(601166,stocks)Lu zhengwei said,CPI inflation expectations change constantly since 2005,But there are rules to follow as a whole:In addition to the 2008 are direct quotes from actual level of the CPI,Other years are basically according to the following formulation,Namely, when the CPI value is lower than 3.0% in real terms last year,Generally in accordance with the expected value to 3.0%;When the CPI by more than 3.0%,Generally in accordance with the expected value to 4.0%."This year this can continue to use last year's 4.0% target,And the result is deliberately back to 3.5%,This suggests that the policy on high alert authorities about inflation,Also reflects the easing of space is quite limited."Lu zhengwei said.

　

　4月成时间窗口 Four months into the window

　　早在2月中旬，市场就不断传出央行货币政策已经开始转向的声音。

Early in the middle of February,Markets have been spread the voice of the central bank monetary policy has turned to.

　　2月20日当周，央行在公开市场单周净回笼资金高达9100亿元，为历史单周资金净回笼最高值，这一举动曾一度被市场认为是货币政策趋势性调整的信号。

On February 20th in the week,The central bank in the open market weekly drained a net 910 billion yuan,For historical weekly money drained a net peak,A move that was once considered market trend to adjust monetary policy signals.

　　不过3月5日公布的外汇占款数据纠正了这一判断。当日公布的数据显示，2013年1月份新增外汇占款6836　亿元,创下了历史高点。值得注意的是，2012　年全年外汇占款新增量也不到5000　亿元。

But on March 5, released by the foreign exchange data corrected this judgment.According to data released on the day,In January 2013, the new foreign exchange of 683.6 billion yuan,Hit a record high.It is worth noting,New incremental foreign exchange in the whole year of 2012 is less than 500 billion yuan.

　　这一数据说明，央行近期通过正回购回收流动性的行动应该和1月份外汇占款超常规的猛增有着密切关系，而不应该被看成央行改变货币政策的信号。因为外汇占款增长导致央行需要向市场投放比较多的流动性，为了保持流动性的松紧适度，央行就必须要采取一定的政策措施来对冲。

The data show,Recycling liquidity should be central bank recently passed are buy and extraordinary surge from January, foreign exchange has a close relationship,And should not be regarded as the central bank changes the signal of monetary policy.Because foreign exchange increase lead to the central bank needs to market more liquidity,In order to maintain liquidity is moderately elastic,The central bank will have to take certain policy measures to hedge.

　　另外一个被解读为或将成为央行货币政策收紧的重要信号则是M2。在刚刚公布的2013年各项宏观指标中，M2目标被确定为13%，比2012年下调一个百分点。相对于其他经济指标而言，这个指标被认为是最难实现的。

Another was interpreted or will become an important signal of central bank monetary policy tightening is M2.In 2013 has just released the macro indicators,M2 target was determined to be 13%,By one percent over 2012.Relative to the other economic indicators,The index is considered to be the most difficult to achieve.

　　央行行长周小川在两会期间接受采访时解释说，2013年中国GDP增长目标定为7.5%，CPI涨幅控制在3.5%左右，M2预期增长目标定为13%左右，这与M2增速略高于GDP增长与物价升幅之和的历史规律是一致的。

Central bank governor, zhou xiaochuan, explained in an interview during the two sessions,China's GDP growth target at 7.5% in 2013,Control the CPI growth around 3.5%,M2 expected growth target at around 13%,This with M2 growth rate slightly higher than the GDP growth is in line with the historical regularity of the sum of the prices rise.

　　同时他还强调：“13%是一个预测数，不是目标。如果把该数据与往年的数据相比，就会发现这是强调货币供应量不能太快增长。”

He also stressed at the same time:"13% is a prediction,Is not a goal.If the data is compared with the previous data,You will find it is emphasized that the money supply growth too fast."

　　对此，野村证券分析，上述经济控制目标的提出，意味着中国政府及央行或许不会在年内再度放宽货币政策。而事实上，该机构预计，中国在“两会”结束之后可能会重新进入货币政策紧缩周期。持有类似观点的还有瑞穗证券亚洲公司董事总经理、首席经济学家沈建光，他也将这种调整看成是货币政策收紧或将开始的信号。

For this,Nomura securities analysis,The aim of the economic control,Means that the Chinese government and the central bank may not loosen monetary policy again in years.As a matter of fact,The agency expects,In China"The two sessions"After the end of may re-enter the monetary tightening cycle.Hold similar views and mizuho securities Asia managing director/Chief economist, said shen jianguang,He will also be the adjustment as a tighter monetary policy or will start signal.

　　沈建光认为1月信贷的迅速扩张，包括M2同比增长15.9%、社会融资总量同比增长159.9%等，已经超出了决策层的容忍程度。

Shen jianguang think 1 month credit expanding rapidly,Including M2 rose by 15.9%/159.9% year-over-year increase in total social financing, etc,Is beyond the tolerance of policy makers.

　　需要指出的一点是，1月的M2显著超越了调控目标,这与新增外汇占款的额度创历史新高有密切关系。业内人士比较一致的观点是，未来预计新增外汇占款高企很难持续,M2未来保持平稳应该是大概率事件。

It is need to point out,January M2 significantly beyond the regulation and control goal,It set a record with new foreign exchange quota is closely related.The personage inside course of study more consistent view is,High foreign exchange will be hard to sustain is estimated to increase in the future,M2 flat should be a big probability events in the future.

　　也有质疑者提出，考虑到经济偏弱,通货膨胀状况仍较为稳定,短期内货币政策显著收紧是否会伤及实体经济？

There are skeptics,Given the weak economy,Inflation remains relatively stable condition,In the short term, monetary policy tightening will significantly hurt the real economy?

　　瑞银首席经济学家汪涛认为，下调M2增长目标不一定是货币政策收紧的信号。“由于银行表外融资规模的迅猛扩张,M2已经越来越不能准确地反映真实的货币和信贷条件。2012年底M2增速并没有比2011年底高出多少,但社会融资规模增长加快、信贷条件也要宽松得多。”她说。

Ubs chief economist wang tao said,Cut the M2 growth target does not necessarily signal a tighter monetary policy."As Banks off-balance-sheet financing the rapid expansion of scale,M2 is getting more and more can't accurately reflect the real money and credit conditions.At the end of 2012 M2 growth and not much higher than at the end of 2011,But social financing scale growth/Credit conditions and is much more loose."She said.

　　不过,汪涛也认为近期的信贷规模扩张速度过快,而这种势头应该是无法持续的。“相对于政府计划的货币和信贷政策基调来说,当前的信贷条件过于宽松。政府希望维持中性的政策基调来支持经济持续复苏,但不希望政策过于宽松以至于造成经济过热。”她说。

but,Tao wang, also believes that the recent credit expansion speed is too fast,And this momentum should be unsustainable."Relative to the government's planned tone for monetary and credit policy,The current credit conditions are too loose.The government wants to maintain neutral policy tone to support sustainable economic recovery,But don't want to policy too loose to cause overheating."She said.

　　汪涛预测，政府对信贷增长进行调控最早可能发生在4月。至于具体的调控方式，她认为可能通过严格监管，而不是调整利率或准备金率,来放缓信贷扩张的步伐。

Wang tao prediction,The government to adjust and control credit growth as early as possible in April.As for the specific control mode,She could think through strict supervision,Rather than adjusting interest rates or the reserve requirement ratio,To slow the pace of credit expansion.

　　来自官方的表述也印证了这一说法，中国人民银行副行长易纲3月6日在两会期间接受访问时指出，“央行将会使用多种策略组合，包括回购和发行央行票据，以清除过量的流动性，这也是央行曾经使用过的方式。这也是惟一能够实现渐进式物价稳定的方法。”

From the official statement also confirms this view,Yi gang, deputy governor of the people's bank of China in during the two sessions on March 6, said in an interview,"The central bank will use a variety of strategies,Including the buyback and issuing central bank bills,To remove excess liquidity,It is also used by central Banks.This is the only method can realize incremental price stability."