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“货币超发”论的误区--亲稳网络舆情监控室
2013-03-11
国际金融危机后,美国、欧元区、日本等国家和地区的央行纷纷采取量化宽松货币政策,引发公众对货币金融问题的关注,部分分析人士引入了M2(广义货币)及M2/GDP等学术概念,认为我国货币存在“超发”问题,实际上这种分析存在着诸多误区。
After the international financial crisis,The United States/The euro zone/Japan and other countries and regions, central Banks have taken quantitative easing monetary policy,Cause the attention of public to monetary and financial problems,Some analysts M2 is introduced(Broad money)Academic concepts and M2 / GDP, etc,Think that China's currency"Super hair"The problem,In fact there are many misconceptions that analysis.
有一种常见的认识是把新增M2等同于“多印钞票”,其实并不准确。我国M2统计口径主要包括流通中的现金和银行存款,而所谓央行印的钞票准确来说应该是流通中的现金(M0)。事实上,从2010年到2012年,我国流通中的现金余额同比增速分别为16.7%、13.7%、7.7%,增速呈现大幅回落态势。其中,2011年全年净投放现金6161亿元,同比少投放214亿元;2012年净投放现金3910亿元,同比少投放2251亿元,央行净投放现金连续下降。
Have a common understanding is to put the new M2 is equal to"Printing more money",It is not accurate.M2 statistics caliber in China mainly include cash in circulation and bank deposits,The so-called central Banks printing money precisely should be cash in circulation(M0).In fact,,From 2010 to 2010,In circulation in China cash balance year-on-year growth of 16.7%, respectively/13.7%/7.7%,Growth trend has dropped sharply.Among them,2011 full-year net cash 616.1 billion yuan,Year-on-year drop 21.4 billion yuan less;Net cash 391 billion yuan in 2012,Year-on-year drop 225.1 billion yuan less,Net central bank into cash consecutive decline.
M2/GDP最早由美国经济学家麦金农于1973年提出,主要是用来衡量经济货币化的指标。M2/GDP上升,与一国经济货币化发展阶段、金融体系的变革有很大关系,并不能简单认为M2/GDP上升就是货币超发。以我国为例,改革开放以来,随着计划经济向市场经济的过渡,我国M2/GDP总体呈上升趋势,1996年后这一比例开始持续超过100%,这与我国从计划经济向市场经济转变过程中不断推进货币化进程有关,经济活动中的生产、生活交易方式逐渐向货币化转变,体现了我国货币化的进程,与货币超发是完全不同的概念。
M2 / GDP first economists McKinnon proposed in 1973 by the United States,Is mainly used to measure indicators of economic monetization.M2 / GDP increase,And a country's economic monetization phase of development/Has a lot to do with the change of the financial system,Do not simply think that M2 / GDP increase is more.In our country, for example,Since the reform and opening,With the transition of planned economy to market economy,M2 / GDP in China is on the rise as a whole,After 1996 this proportion that persists for more than 100%,This and our country in the process of transition from planned economy to market economy constantly advancing the monetization process,Economic activity in the production/Life way to trade gradually to monetize,Embodies the monetization process in our country,With currencies in excess of the hair is a completely different concept.
由于各国经济金融发展程度、金融体系结构不同的因素,各国广义货币统计口径不同,用M2/GDP进行简单的国际比较没有意义。例如,在我国这种以间接融资为主、金融产品不丰富的国家,居民财富大多以存款形式存在,导致M2/GDP的比重普遍高于以直接融资为主、金融市场发达的国家。此外,货币国际地位高的国家,比如美国,美联储发行的货币很大一部分都流向国际市场,并没有直接表现在M2/GDP这一指标中,但并不能据此认为美联储没有超发货币。
Due to the national economic and financial development degree/The financial system structure of different factors,The different generalized monetary statistics caliber,By international comparison of M2 / GDP simply does not make sense.Such as the,This is given priority to with indirect financing in our country/Financial products not rich countries,Residents' wealth is mostly in the form of deposits,Result in M2 / GDP generally higher than the proportion of direct financing primarily/The financial markets of developed countries.In addition,Countries with high international currency status,Such as the United States,The fed much money flowing into the international market,And is not directly reflected in the index of M2 / GDP,But it does not say the fed did not send money.
从本质上看,一国货币供给应与经济发展的内在需要相一致。我国M2的增长目标是以经济增长对货币供应的需求为基础,以GDP增速目标为依据确定的,并预先设计一个相对稳定的基础货币投放速度,以确保不出现大幅度通胀。事实上,近期我国的货币供给一直保持稳健偏紧态势,通胀趋势也得到了有效遏制,2012年我国居民消费价格指数(CPI)涨幅仅为2.6%。
In essence,A country's money supply should be consistent with the inner need of economic development.China's M2 growth target is based on economic growth in the demand for money supply,Based on GDP growth target,And design the basis of a relatively stable currency in advance delivery speed,In order to ensure that without a great inflation.In fact,,Recently our country's money supply remained tight situation,Inflation trend has been effectively curbed,China's consumer price index in 2012(The CPI)Increase of just 2.6%.
此外,我国的经济金融体制与经济结构特点决定了货币供给具有内生性。一方面,以出口导向型经济为主的经济发展模式,导致我国持续存在贸易顺差和国际收支盈余。为了维持有管理的浮动汇率制度,保持汇率水平的相对稳定,央行被迫干预外汇市场,投放基础货币,引起货币被动发行。另一方面,货币政策还承担了促进经济增长的目标,在2008年国际金融危机后,我国实施大规模经济刺激计划,实行扩张性的财政政策,客观上也要求宽松货币政策与之配合。因此,我国货币供给增长是经济发展内在需要和我国经济金融体制现状决定的,并非政府主动向流动性中“注水”。
In addition,Our country's economic and financial system and economic structure determines the money supply is endogenous.On the one hand,Mainly export-oriented economic model of economic development,Lead to the continued trade surplus and the international balance of payments surplus in our country.In order to maintain a managed floating exchange rate system,Keep the exchange rate level is relatively stable,The central bank was forced to intervene in currency markets,On the monetary base,Passive currency issue.On the other hand,Monetary policy is to the goal of promoting economic growth,After the international financial crisis in 2008,The implementation of the large-scale economic stimulus plan in our country,Implementation of an expansionary fiscal policy,Objective also requires the loose monetary policy and cooperation.so,The money supply growth is the economic development of our country inner needs and status quo of economic and financial system in our country,Not to liquidity in the government"Water injection".
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