本报记者 王小伟

Our reporter Wang Xiaowei

　　有关部门日前宣布扩大商业银行设立基金管理公司试点范围，金融机构混业经营呈加速态势。金融体制改革究竟该从哪方面入手？今年货币政策走向何方？本期《中证面对面》邀请全国政协委员、中国银行(601988,股吧)外部监事、东方资产管理公司原总裁梅兴保解读当前金融政策，并对金融体制改革若干热点问题进行剖析。

Authorities announced for expanding the scope of the pilot commercial Banks set up fund management companies,Mixed management in financial institutions is accelerated.Financial system reform should from which aspects?The direction of monetary policy this year?In this issue[Under the face to face]Invite the CPPCC national committee/The bank of China(601988,stocks)External supervisors/Orient asset management company, former President of MeiXingBao interpretation of the current monetary policy,And some hot problems of financial system reform are analyzed.

　　货币政策不会太紧 Monetary policy will not be too tight

　　中国证券报：春节过后，央行连续两周公开市场净回笼资金引起广泛关注，是否意味着货币政策开始向偏紧方向倾斜？

The China securities journal:After the Spring Festival,Drained a net central bank after two week market caused wide public concern,Does that mean tight monetary policy began to tilt direction?

　　梅兴保：我认为今年不会太紧缩。温总理在政府工作报告中指出，今年货币M2增速为13%，GDP增速7.5%，物价增长水平3.5%，稳增长调结构是今年经济增长的主线。现在中国正处于经济持续稳定发展的关键时期。

MeiXingBao:I think this year will not be too tight.Premier wen jiabao in his government work report points out,Currency M2 growth of 13% this year,GDP growth of 7.5%,Price growth levels of 3.5%,Steady growth of restructuring is the backbone of economic growth this year.Now China is in a critical period of sustained economic steady development.

　　从出口来看，进出口额去年增长6.2%，虽然政府工作报告里没有提出今年目标，但我认为应该高于8%。从内需来说，去年增速为14.3%，今年增长目标为14.5%，即零售商品总额增长应该大于去年。投资方面，去年固定资产投资增长20.3%，今年虽然调控在18%左右，但这个增长速度也不低。中国经济要在这样的水平上发展，必然要有一定的后备资金供应量来保证。所以，今年货币发行量不会太紧。央行正回购是根据一定情况采取波段操作，可能上半年偏紧一点，下半年偏松一点，今年整体来说不会太紧。

From the export,Imports and exports grew 6.2% last year,Although in the government work report haven't come up with goals this year,But I think it should be higher than 8%.From domestic demand for,Growth of 14.3% last year,The growth target of 14.5% this year,Retail sales growth should be greater than last year.Investment in,Fixed asset investment grew by 20.3% last year,Although regulation is around 18% this year,But the growth rate is not low.China's economic development must in this level,Is bound to have some backup to ensure that the money supply.so,Currency issuance this year will not be too tight.Central bank is the buyback is adopt band operation according to certain circumstances,May be a little tight in the first half of the year,In the second half to slant a bit loose,Overall not too tight this year.

　　中国证券报：房地产贷款方面，政策会不会有所收紧呢？

The China securities journal:Real estate loans,Policy will be tightened?

　　梅兴保：我做过调研，房地产贷款额度大概占到贷款总额的20%左右；但房地产作为抵押物，在整个抵押贷款当中占到80%。换句话来说，抵押贷款的抵押物80%左右是房地产。所以，房地产牵涉的面很广。

MeiXingBao:I have been a research,Real estate loans accounted for about 20% of the total amount of the loan;But the real estate as collateral,Among the whole mortgages accounted for 80%.In other words,About 80% mortgage collateral is real estate.so,In front of the property involved is very wide.

　　这些年对房地产调控年年进行，行政、经济手段等多管齐下。此次“国五条”对二手房的交易影响更为有效，更为直接,接下来要看各地的实施细则。

During these years every year for real estate regulation and control,The administrative/Multi-pronged, such as economic means.the"The five countries"More effective impact on second-hand housing transactions,More direct,The next thing to look at the detailed rules for the implementation.

　　中国证券报：对于“新型城镇化”,很多人担心会演变成新一轮“房地产造城运动”。其中，需要注意哪些问题？

The China securities journal:for"New type of urbanization",Many people worry that turn into a new round"Real estate city building".Among them,Need to pay attention to what problem?

　　梅兴保：这次提案当中最大的热点就是关于城镇化的问题。城镇化一定要有新的思路和战略举措。所谓“新的思路”，就是说一定要把未来城镇化的导向引导到国家大中小城市协调发展，让三四线城市和农村中间有规模的集镇加快发展，使它发展和改善的速度高于现在的大城市，让它成为吸纳农民工进城的主阵地，让农民工在就近的家园附近安家落户，只有这样才符合国情。我认为，要在城镇化的过程中解决现有符合条件的农民工的住房、子女就学、就医等问题，还要给他们一定补偿。目前很多企业没有按照社保的规定，给农民工上“五险”，需要按照社保的要求补发。而农民工需要在城市找到相对稳定的工作，其文化素质应该能够适应这份工作。

MeiXingBao:The proposal of the biggest hot spots is the problem of urbanization.Urbanization must have new ideas and strategic measures.The so-called"New train of thought",Means must want to lead the future direction of urbanization in the coordinated development of medium cities to the countries,Give three or four line between urban and rural scale speed up the development of the town,Make its development and improvement of the speed is higher than big cities now,Let it become a main position of migrant workers into the city,Let the migrant workers in nearby home to settle down nearby,Only in this way to accord with national conditions.I think,Want to in the process of urbanization to solve the existing qualified migrant workers housing/Children go to school/Medical problems such as,Also give them some compensation.At present many enterprises not in accordance with the provisions of the social security,To migrant workers"Five insurance",Need it replaced in accordance with the requirements of the social security.The migrant workers need to find a relatively stable job in the city,The cultural quality should be able to adapt to the job.

　　严控“影子银行”风险 rein"The shadow banking"The risk

　　中国证券报：银监会主席尚福林在两会期间接受中国证券报记者专访时明确表示，要控制“影子银行”的规模并对其适度监管，以防止风险的交叉感染。这方面有哪些好办法或措施吗？

The China securities journal:The China banking regulatory commission chairman shang fulin during the two sessions to accept the China securities journal reporter in an interview made it clear that,To control the"The shadow banking"The scale and the moderate supervision,In order to prevent the risk of cross infection.What are the good ways or measures?

　　梅兴保：从近两年来看，特别是去年，银行资金已经出现了一些紧张情况。对于“影子银行”，国内外有一些统一认可的说法，就是指游离于金融监管之外的金融中介服务机构。换句话说，就是不受金融监管、打着金融牌子搞金融的机构，最典型的像非法集资、地下钱庄等。

MeiXingBao:From the nearly two years,Especially the last year,Bank funds have been some tense situation.for"The shadow banking",There is the saying of some unified recognition at home and abroad,Refers to the free financial intermediary service institutions outside of financial regulation.In other words,Is not subject to financial regulation/Under the financial brand to financial institutions,The most typical like illegal fund raising/Underground Banks, etc..

　　正规银行的理财产品并不算“影子银行”，它的设计符合一定规范，且受到银监会监管。虽然有的理财产品有一些打“擦边球”保本的承诺，但其整个设计思路和服务还是比较规范的。目前要讨论的“影子银行”，主要是要防止那些私募股权基金之类不规范的“理财产品”，还有民间集资，以及那种没有经过批准担保业务的像过去类似于传销式的金融服务，要通过监管控制“影子银行”的风险。

Is not formal banking financial management products"The shadow banking",The design conforms to certain specification,And by the China banking regulatory commission regulation.Although some products have some play"chip"Break-even commitment,But the whole design idea and service specification.To be discussed at the moment"The shadow banking",Mainly is to prevent the irregularities such as private equity funds"Wealth management products",And the folk financing,As in the past and that no approved guarantee business is similar to MLM type of financial services,By regulatory controls"The shadow banking"The risk of.

　　审慎推进金融体制改革 Prudent promote the reform of financial system

　　中国证券报：大家一直呼吁的金融体制改革的方向是什么？突破口又在哪里？

The China securities journal:We have been calling for the direction of the reform of financial system is what?Breach and where is it?

　　梅兴保：金融体制改革一定要审慎推进。在本轮国务院的机构改革方案中，在大部制的指导思想下，铁道部撤销，其他部门也是整合执法职能。我预计，大部制的“春风”一定会往金融这方面吹拂，一定会在调查研究的基础上加快金融改革，乃至金融体系改革。

MeiXingBao:Financial system reform must advance carefully.In this round of institutional reform of the state council scheme,Under the guiding ideology of the super-ministries,The ministry of railways to cancel,Other departments and integrated law enforcement function.I expect,The super-ministries of"The spring breeze"Would have to finance the breeze,Will be on the basis of investigation and research to speed up financial reform,And the financial system reform.

　　改革首先应从大部制改革的基础上，考虑现在的分业监管问题。分业监管这几年是很有效的，但随着金融业发展、主体的多元化，特别是金融控股集团出现以后，出现很多不适应的方面。从监管内部来说，分业监管的成本也很高，有时协调也显得力不从心。一个不可忽视的方面来自利率市场化，中国目前最重要的金融要素——资金还没有完全市场化，这使得中小企业和个体户得到资金非常难、非常贵。但推进利率市场化很复杂、很敏感，牵扯到实体经济，竞争机制还会对银行本身提出挑战。

On the basis of reform should first the super-ministries reform,Consider now the differentiated regulatory problems.Supervised respectively over the past few years, it is very effective,But with the development of financial industry/The diversity of the subject,Especially financial holding group appeared later,In so many aspects.From the internal regulation,Differentiated regulation cost is high,Sometimes coordinating also appears to have run out of puff.A noticeable aspects from interest rate marketization,China is one of the most important - the money is still not fully market-oriented financial elements,This makes the small and medium-sized enterprises and self-employed it is very difficult to get money/Very expensive.But promote the marketization of interest rates is very complex/Is very sensitive,Be involved in the real economy,Competition mechanism will challenge for the Banks themselves.

　　本报记者 郭峰 摄

Our reporter rafnar b is taken