近日，货币政策成为两会期间的热点话题。中国人民银行行长周小川在记者会上说，从数量上来看，今年定13%左右的广义货币供应量预期增长目标，如果与去年和前年实际实现的数字相比，应该是趋于更紧一点。

In recent days,Become a hot topic during the two sessions of the monetary policy.The people's bank of China governor zhou xiaochuan said at a press conference,On the number of it,Set this year's broad money supply is expected growth target of 13%,If compared with the actual implementation of the digital last year and the year before last,Should be tend to be more tighter.

　　货币政策的走向令人关注。除了数量，利率市场化也是最大的关注点。自今年政府工作报告继续提出稳步推进利率市场化改革，去年6月央行实施了存贷款利率浮动政策，即存款利率上限浮动区间是基准利率的1.1倍，贷款利率下限浮动区间是基准利率的0.8倍，为利率市场化改革打开畅想空间以来，市场预期今年中国利率市场化改革将会更进一步。最近一份国际市场调查报告显示，市场预期中国将在2013年会进一步放宽甚至取消存款利率上限和贷款利率下限。不过，预期中国今年会取消存贷款利率上下限，显然是不谙改革复杂性。正如央行副行长易纲最近表示，随着改革进入深水区，利率市场化等改革难度在加大。

Monetary policy to the concern.In addition to the number,Interest rate marketization is also the biggest concern.Since this year the government work report continue to steadily promote the reform of interest rate marketization is put forward,In June last year the central bank deposit and lending interest rates floating policy implementation,The deposit interest rate cap band is 1.1 times the benchmark interest rate,Loan interest rate lower limit of the floating range is 0.8 times the benchmark interest rate,Open since imagination space for market-based reform of interest rates,Market this year, China's market-oriented interest rate reform is expected to go further.A recent survey the international market,Expectations that China will further relax or even cancel the deposit interest rates in 2013 ceiling and the floor on lending rates.but,In China this year expected to cancel the deposit and lending rates on lower limit,Complexity is obviously not reform.As yi gang, deputy governor of China's central bank recently said,With the reform into the deep waters,Interest rate marketization reform, such as the difficulty increase.

　　当前利率市场化改革难度，并非是央行缺乏一个可替代存贷款利率的政策基准利率锚（央行已经具备了用SHIBOR替代存贷利率作为基准利率的选择自由），而是目前以投资为主的经济增长，与央行对商业银行存贷款利率的管制等的金融抑制，具有显著的正相关性，这些因素影响着利率市场化改革进程。即对存贷款利率和其他金融管制，对投资准入等的限制，使居民除银行存款外，缺乏其他安全的有效投资渠道，进而能通过实施管制的低存贷款利率，促使商业银行为地方政府和国企提供廉价的融资安排。

The current interest rate marketization reform difficult,Instead of the deposit and lending rates is not the lack of a central bank benchmark policy rates of anchor(Central Banks already have substitute SHIBOR freedom of choice as the benchmark interest rate and loan interest rates),But now to investment to give priority to economic growth,Restrictions with the central bank to commercial bank deposit and lending rates of financial repression,Has a significant positive correlation,These factors affect the process of market-oriented interest rate reform.Of deposit and lending interest rates and other financial control,Restrictions on access, etc,Residents in addition to the bank deposit,The lack of effective investment channels other security,Low lending and deposit rates, in turn, can through the implementation of control,Encourage commercial Banks to local governments and state-owned enterprises provide cheap financing arrangements.

　　长期的金融抑制，虽会短时促进GDP的数字增长，但却强化了经济增长对这种利率政策的依赖。目前看来，利率市场化改革的难点主要在于，首先，在M2/GDP水平较高的条件下，市场日益浓聚的通胀预期和资产价格上涨下，利率市场化很容易使市场利率攀升，增加一些高负债的地方政府和国企负担，令一些缺乏经济可行性项目风险敞口的暴露，因为过高的M2/GDP不仅反映出货币超发和通胀预期，而且透射出投资边际收益率下降，即单位投入的产出值过低。

Long-term financial repression,Although short-term figures of GDP growth,But to strengthen the dependence on the interest rates of economic growth.So far,The difficulty lies in interest rate marketization reform,First of all,Under the condition of high M2 / GDP level,Increasingly strong market expectations of inflation and asset prices down,Interest rate marketization is easy to make the market interest rates rise,Add some high debt burden of local governments and soes,Some lack of economic feasibility of the project risk exposure exposure,Because of the high M2 / GDP reflects not only monetary super hair and inflation expectations,And the transmission investment marginal yields down,Output per unit of input value is too low.

　　其次，目前外需增长渐趋平稳，资本外流和贸易顺差收窄等，意味着今年外汇占款很可能继续去年的颓势，这意味着央行通过外汇占款投放基础货币调剂市场流动性的空间被压缩，加之金融脱媒日益突出，央行对市场流动性的调剂将需另辟新径，这使得选择此时进一步放松存贷款利率管制，将增加央行对市场利率和人民币汇率渐进管理的难度。

The second,Current external demand growth become more stable,Capital outflows and the trade surplus narrowed, etc,Means that the foreign exchange is likely to last year's decline this year,This means that the central bank through foreign exchange base currency swap market liquidity space is compressed,Combined with financial disintermediation becomes more and more prominent,The relief of central bank liquidity to the market will be another new path,This makes selection further easing lending and deposit rates control at this time,Central bank interest rate and RMB exchange rate gradually to the market will increase the difficulty of management.

　　鉴于此，在目前经济增长仍然倚重投资刺激下，放松存贷款利率管制仍然困难重重。当然，在金融脱媒下，相关部门可能会象征性地继续在管控存贷款利率基调不变下，适度放宽存款利率浮动上限和贷款利率浮动下限，以缓解商业银行的吸储压力，以及金融脱媒对央行存贷款利率管制的干扰，即今年的利率市场化，利率“维稳”或将是基调，实质性的放松尚需时间与空间。

In view of this,Under the current economy growth still relies on investment incentives,Loosen lending and deposit rates control remains very difficult.Of course,,Under the financial disintermediation,Related departments could symbolically continue under the tone control deposit and lending rates unchanged,Moderate liberalized the deposit interest rate floating cap and loan interest rate lower limit,To alleviate the pressure of the deposits of commercial Banks,And financial disintermediation restrictions on bank lending and deposit rates,The marketization of interest rates this year,Interest rates"stability"Or will be the tone,Substantial relaxation is needed time and space.

　　但是，金融脱媒、人口老龄化条件下的真实储蓄率趋降，M2/GDP高企条件下的高通胀预期等情况，反映加快利率市场化为当务之急，且扭曲的利率终须有效矫正，只有及时矫正，才能减小经济体系内的风险敞口。因此，目前亟须进一步厘清政府与市场的边界，并通过市场化改革善后地方政府和国企债务，为金融改革深化创造良性的经济社会秩序。

but,Financial disintermediation/Population aging under the condition of real savings rate is down,Under the condition of high M2 / GDP higher inflation expectations, and so on and so forth,Reflect to speed up the interest rate market becomes imperative,Correction and distorted rates eventually must be effective,Only timely correction,To reduce exposure within the economic system.so,The boundary of the need to further clarify the government and the market at present,Problems arising from and through market-oriented reform of local government and state-owned enterprise debt,For the financial reform deepening creates good economic and social order.