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别让道德风险绑架金融业(财经七日谈)--亲稳网络舆情监控室
2013-05-08
“五·一”期间,两件事备受瞩目。一是中国乳制品工业协会发布调查报告称,国产奶粉质量优于进口奶粉,“16个国产品牌婴儿奶粉全部符合国家标准要求,倒是9个原装进口产品中,有3个不合格”。公众对这个“非常好”结论不买账,“半信半疑”;另一个焦点是红十字会。中国红十字会社会监督委员会发表声明,“将于5月份重启对郭美美事件的调查”。秘书长王汝鹏次日即发表澄清谈话说,“我们没说要查郭美美”。
"5, a"During the period,Two things.One is released the report on China's dairy industry association said,Domestic milk powder quality is superior to the imported milk powder,"16 domestic brand infant milk powder all meet the national standard requirements,It is nine imported products,There are three unqualified".The public of the"Is very good"The conclusion is not,"A grain of salt";Another focus is the Red Cross.The Red Cross society of China social supervision committee issued a statement,"To restart the survey of guo meimei event in May".Wang rupeng, secretary general of the next day clarification conversation said,"We will check the guo meimei did not say".
这是一个利益主导言论的时代。有个段子写得好,罚款和创收的抱成一团,听证和涨价的是父子,批准改制和鲸吞的是兄弟,考察和观光的是一家人,偷情和隐私缠在一起……“中乳协”是乳制品企业的“娘家”,由其自证国产奶粉“非常好”难逃利益关联质疑。央视主持人在播报该新闻后多问了一句,“真是这样的吗?”
This is an era of interests dominate the speech.Have a joke to write well,Fines and income-generating opportunity,The hearing and price increases are father and son,Approved the restructuring and swallow are brothers,Inspection and sightseeing is a family,Cheating and privacy together..."In the dairy association"Is the dairy products enterprise"Bride's family",By its own domestic milk powder"Is very good"Be benefit correlation question.CCTV host ask 1 more after broadcasting the news,"That is the case?"
利益喧嚣的时代,也是民意与利益集团对决的时代。利益铁幕的重重挟裹,从“乳协”和红会的做派可管中窥豹。经济下行期,金融系统最近频生事端,从惊动最高层、多部委联合办案、涉及多个金融机构的债券风波,到银行员工违规私售理财产品等一系列案件看,一些大案要案高发地,必然是利益瓜田李下之地。现在,某机构发案,相关上级单位、监管部门往往守口如瓶,不到万不得已不透露半句。
Benefit the hustle and bustle of time,Is an age of public opinion and interests clash.The interests of the iron curtain of fireball,From the"Milk association"And the Red Cross society manner.Economic downward legs,The financial system in recent frequency disturbance,Stir from the top/Many ministries of case/Involving multiple financial institutions bonds,Employees in violation of the private to the bank to sell financial products and a series of cases,A high incidence of some major cases,Is necessarily benefit GuaTianLiXia land.now,Some institutions both,Relevant units at higher levels/Regulators tend to keep his mouth shut,To not say half sentence.
此次债券风波,发案最长的达6年之久,长期的暧昧、护短和纵容使得灰色金融已开始向正规金融渗透,两者之间没有严密的防火墙,在利益的纠葛下“你中有我,我中有你”。一些金融系统员工长期在灰色地带游走,通过债券、理财产品和资金供需进行“过桥”、“配对”、“代持”交易,从中赚取巨额利益,并以其特殊的利益输送搞定“上下左右”。一旦资金链断裂,“断桥”事件发生,员工或外逃或跳楼或“进去”,涉及的相关单位则百般遮掩,以“非职务行为”、“纯属个人行为”为由,凭一纸辞退声明来设立“防火墙”、“隔离带”,如此这般“滋养”员工的操作风险和道德风险。最近,某地一家大型国有银行员工因涉及近亿元的假车贷骗案入网,当事银行面对记者采访仍强调,“系统性大银行的案件属于国家机密,你能报得出来?”
The bond affair,Both the longest for 6 years,Long-term ambiguous/Justifying a fault and indulge in that gray financial has started to permeate to the formal financial,Not close between a firewall,Under the entanglements of interests"pretences-or,I have you".Some financial systems staff in the grey area for a long time,Through bond/Supply and demand for wealth management products and money"Cross the bridge"/"pairing"/"Generation of a"trading,To earn huge profits from it,And delivery done on the basis of their special benefits"The up and down or so".Once the capital chain rupture,"Broken bridge"Event occurs,Employees or jump off a building or of their flight"Go in",Involved is manifold cover relevant units,In order to"Into a behavior"/"Is personal behavior"grounds,By firing a paper statement to set up"A firewall"/"median",This kind of"nourish"Employees of operation risk and moral risk.recently,Somewhere in a large state-owned bank employees because of the nearly $one hundred million worth of fake car loan scam,Party Banks face reporters still stressed,"Systemic Banks case belongs to the state secrets,Can you quote it?"
中国金融体系有三大风险:一是25万亿元左右的地方债务风险;二是20多万亿元的“影子银行”风险;三是巨额不良资产的风险。几者相加相当于GDP的总量。与天量地方债务相捆绑的是“土地拜物教”,经济增长保持高速度时,这些资产有价值,经济一旦失速,土地资产立即成“地雷”连环爆,次贷危机以后美国房地产市场的衰退和银行体系的垮塌就是现实的教案。资本具有逐利性,而灰色金融和影子银行的猖獗,不仅使实体经济面临空心化危险,也累积着极大的金融和社会风险。不受监管的“影子银行”、灰色金融逃避监管视线,肆无忌惮,横冲直撞的结果是“大象撞进瓷器店”,后患无穷。
China's financial system has three big risks:One is about 25 trillion yuan of local debt risk;2 it is more than one trillion yuan"The shadow banking"The risk;3 it is huge risk of non-performing assets.A few people together is equivalent to the total amount of GDP.With day local debt amount is bound"Land fetishism",Maintain a high economic growth speed,These valuable assets,Once the economy stall,Land assets into immediately"Land mines"Serial blasting,Subprime mortgage crisis after the U.S. real estate market recession and the collapse of the banking system is the realistic teaching plans.Capital is profit-driven,And gray finance and shadow banking is rampant,Make real economy not only face the danger of hollowing out,Also accumulated a great financial and social risks.unregulated"The shadow banking"/Gray financial evade regulation the line of sight,unscrupulous,The result is on the rampage"The elephant crashed into a China shop",The devil.
失去利润可以赚回,而失去信用和声誉就失去一切,因为这是金融业的生命线,重大声誉危机往往是由其经营过程中的重大问题所触发,与流动性风险、操作风险、市场风险相比,声誉风险一旦失控,不仅多年积累的品牌和客户信任会在一夜之间消失,而且对员工、股东及客户都会带来恐慌,甚至会产生连锁反应和骨牌效应。声誉风险具有不可控制的扩散效应,当危机是由自身实质性错误引发时,对一家银行来说这甚至是相当于破产的危机,这也是金融脆弱性的一面。
Loss of profit can earn back,And lose the credit and reputation is lost everything,Because it is the lifeblood of the financial sector,Huge reputation crisis is often triggered by the major problem in the process of its operation,And liquidity risk/Operational risk/Compared to the market risk,Reputational risk once out of control,Not only many years accumulation of brand and customer trust will disappear overnight,But also for employees/Shareholders and clients into a panic,And even produce a chain reaction and domino effect.The diffusion effect of reputation risk has not control,When the crisis was triggered by its substantial error,It even for a bank is equivalent to the crisis of bankruptcy,This is also the financial fragility.
现在,“影子银行”的滋生蔓延已成为中国经济的“毒药”,资金规模越来越大链条越拉越长,内外勾结所积累的风险越来越大,只要一个环节断裂,最终会产生连锁反应,冲击银行体系,因此诱发“中国式次贷危机”不是没有可能。因此,金融业要善于从红会和乳会的安全中吸取教训,切实加强声誉风险管理。对于金融机构来说,品牌和商誉是最重要的无形资产,是商业可持续发展的立足之基。商业银行、大型券商自身经营管理中的重大违规行为,或卷入复杂案件,必然会引发对其生存具有紧急且严重危险的情境和声誉风险事件。它直接损害金融机构的信誉,危及其生存和发展。而品牌和声誉就像一个圆,随着外部粗放式膨胀和扩张,内部管控薄弱,危机爆发的几率也在增长。一个低素质员工的冲动之举,都可能成为危机和麻烦的制造者,成为引发重大声誉风险的导火索。多起机构已经发生的声誉风险案件说明,声誉风险的损失难以预测和评估,无可挽回,有时就是一个面包房失火,烧掉一座罗马城。
now,"The shadow banking"Breeding has become China's economy"The poison",Fund size larger chains to pull longer and longer,Internal and external collusion accumulated risk is more and more big,One link broken,Will eventually produce a chain reaction,Shocks to the banking system,Therefore induce"Chinese-style subprime crisis"Not impossible.so,Finance must be good at from the Red Cross and the safety of the milk will learn lessons,Strengthen the management of reputation risk.For financial institutions,Brand and reputation is the most important intangible assets,Is a business based on the base of sustainable development.Commercial Banks/Big brokerages themselves significant irregularities in the operation and management,Or involved in complicated cases,Is bound to trigger a situation with emergency and serious danger for the survival and reputation risk events.It is directly damage the credibility of financial institutions,Endanger the survival and development.The brand and reputation is like a circle,As the external extensive expansion and expansion,Internal control is weak,At the risk of crisis.A low quality staff of impulse,Might be crisis and trouble maker,As a prelude to major reputational risk.Several agencies have reputation risk case occurred,Reputation is difficult to predict and evaluate the risk of loss,With an awful finality,Sometimes fire is a bakery,Burn a Rome.
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