核心提示：中国下一步金融改革，关键还在于如何加强金融监管的有效性以及金融体制变革。金融改革已成共识，市场期待的是来自中央高层对改革的顶层设计与改革的决心。

Core tips:The next step of financial reform in China,Key lies in how to strengthen the effectiveness of financial regulation and financial system change.Financial reform has become a consensus,Markets expect from the top to reforms of top-level design and determination.

　　《支点》记者 方迎定 实习生 陈岩霖

[fulcrum]Journalists meet Chen Yanlin set intern

　　进入五月，新一轮金融改革正在市场的期待中悄然布局。

In may,A new round of financial reform is quietly layout in market expectations.

　　此轮金融改革，“老将”周小川在升任全国政协副主席的同时，继续留任新一届政府的央行行长，依然站在最前端。在中共十八大上高票当选中央委员的中国银行(601988,股吧)原董事长肖钢接任证监会主席，原证监会主席郭树清调任山东省委副书记。银监会主席、保监会主席则保持不变。

This round of financial reform,"veteran"Zhou xiaochuan, at the same time in the promotion to vice chairman of the CPPCC national committee,To stay on as a new government, central bank governor,Still stood in the front.In the communist party of China (18 large high ticket was elected member of the central committee of the bank of China(601988,stocks)The original as the chairman, chairman of the CSRC,The securities regulatory commission chairman guo shuqing transfer of shandong provincial party committee deputy secretary.The China banking regulatory commission chairman/Circ chairman, remain the same.

　　周小川在其任内完成了国有银行股份制改革、增强了人民币汇率弹性、建立了利率市场化机制、推进了资本项目开放等。业界普遍认为周的留任表明了高层继续金融改革的决心。

Zhou xiaochuan on its watch completed the joint-stock reform of state-owned Banks/To enhance the RMB exchange rate flexibility/Interest rate marketization mechanism is established/Promote the opening of capital account.Industry is generally believed that the retention of weeks shows the high-level determination to continue financial reform.

　　在留任后的一次新闻发布会上，周小川承诺将推进人民币汇率形成机制改革、稳步开放中国跨境资本流动。他表示，改革将坚持循序渐进的原则。

At a press conference after the stay,Zhou xiaochuan pledged to promote the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism/Open China's cross-border capital flows steadily.He said,Will be adhering to the principle of gradual reform.

　　而新任证监会主席肖钢履新刚满4天的3月中下旬，SST华塑、海联讯(300277,股吧)、青鸟华光(600076,股吧)开始接受证监会立案调查。A股市场上不多的密集调查显示，治理上市公司违规或是肖钢进行资本市场改革的第一把火。

And the new CSRC chairman xiao zhang has just turned 4 days in mid to late march,SST China plastic/Sea union -(300277,stocks)/The bluebird uh guano(600076,stocks)Began to accept commission for investigation.A stock market is not much intensive survey,Governance of listed companies in violation of capital market reform or xiao's first.

　　中国下一步金融改革关键还在于如何加强金融监管的有效性以及金融体制变革。而这些均涉及到金融、经济领域中最迫切的问题：市场与政府如何各归其位。当前市场期待的是来自中央高层对改革的顶层设计与改革的决心。

China financial reform next key lies in how to strengthen the effectiveness of financial regulation and financial system change.And these are involved financial/The most pressing issues in the economic field:Market and the government how to each to its place.Look forward to in the present market is from the top to reforms of top-level design and determination.

　　老将新任

Veteran's new

　　“谁将是央行行长的继任者？”这个问题曾在市场激起无数浪花和各种猜测，而多个版本的传闻并非空穴来风。

"Who is the governor of the bank's successor?"The problem was and spray speculation in the market,The multiple versions of the rumors are not unfounded.

　　央行行长周小川的留任出乎市场意料。此前，按市场传闻次序央行行长继任者曾有四人：肖钢、姜建清、郭树清、尚福林。

Central bank governor zhou xiaochuan came as a surprise to the markets remain in office.after,Order according to the market rumors of the central bank successor has four people:Mr Xiao/Mr. Jiang/Mr Guo/Shang fulin.

　　前中行董事长，现证监会第七任主席肖钢一直被视为央行行长职位的最有利竞争者。传闻曾称，肖钢可能是央行党委书记人选，这使他有可能在周小川卸任后接任行长一职。

Former chairman of bank of China,Mr. Xiao, chairman of the CSRC now seventh position has been regarded as a governor of the central bank of the best competitors.Rumors have said,Mr. Xiao is central party committee secretary of the possible candidates,After which he may have left office in zhou took over as President.

　　中国银行在国内素以其国际业务知名。肖钢本人低调、勤奋，政治头脑精明，在他的领导下，中国银行已经越来越注重国内市场。

The bank of China has a reputation for its international business in China.Mr. Xiao, I am a low profile/diligence,Political savvy savvy,Under his leadership,The bank of China is getting more and more attention to the domestic market.

　　周小川的留任出乎意料，却亦在情理之中。此前，多位学界及业界人士公开表态支持周连任，包括央行前顾问、国内知名批评者余永定，全国人民代表大会财政经济委员会副主任委员吴晓灵以及前中行行长肖钢等。支持的声音认为，周的国际知名度无人代替，其留任将有利于政策的稳定性。

Zhou xiaochuan, the retention of unexpected,Is also understandable.after,Academia and the industry more than week publicly support a second term,Including former bank adviser/Domestic famous critics, Mr. Yu,The finance and economic committee of the National People's Congress wu xiaoling, deputy director of the members and former governor of the bank of China Mr. Xiao, etc.Support voice said,No one week the international profile of instead,The stability of their stay will be conducive to policy.

　　周小川任央行行长的过去十年，央行已完成从辅助性的计划调控转向主导性的市场调控、多项金融改革稳步推进。改革渐入深水区，必然会触及到其他相关部门的利益，这就要求央行行长妥善应对，在与既得利益者沟通时审慎而具有协调智慧，而被称为技术派官员的周小川被认为具备这样的素质。

Zhou xiaochuan, President of central bankers over the past ten years,The central bank has been completed from supporting plan regulation to dominant the market regulation/A number of financial reform steadily advancing.Reform gradually into the deep waters,Is bound to be hit to the interests of other relevant departments,It requires central bankers to properly deal with,Caution when communicating with vested interests and harmonizing wisdom,Known as the technocrats zhou xiaochuan is thought to have such a quality.

　　前央行货币研究局副局长景学成在去年接受本刊记者采访时说，除了熟悉宏观经济和金融领域，央行行长的选拔不仅仅是个人能力与素质问题，背后还有更多复杂政治关系。

Former deputy director of the central bank monetary research jing xuecheng said in an interview last year to accept your correspondent,In addition to the familiar with macroeconomic and financial sector,Central bank governor, selection is not just an individual ability and the quality problem,Behind and more complicated political relations.

　　“改革是一个趋势，不由某个人来决定。”银行证券首席经济学家左小蕾认为，人事的调整并不重要，重要的是中央高层的顶层设计和推动改革的决心。

"Reform is a trend,Not from one person to decide."Bank securities chief economist zuo xiaolei said,The adjustment of the personnel is not important,It is important to the central top the top of the design and the resolve to push forward the reform.

　　周小川在其任内完成了国有银行股份制改革、增强了人民币汇率弹性、建立了利率市场化机制、推进了资本项目开放等。业界普遍认为周的留任表明了高层继续金融改革的决心。

Zhou xiaochuan on its watch completed the joint-stock reform of state-owned Banks/To enhance the RMB exchange rate flexibility/Interest rate marketization mechanism is established/Promote the opening of capital account.Industry is generally believed that the retention of weeks shows the high-level determination to continue financial reform.

　　清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心研究员袁钢明在接受《支点》记者采访时表示，央行运用市场手段进行调控起到了很大的作用。但利率市场化改革力度还是偏弱，需要注意的是，当前紧缩的货币政策并不利于中国经济的持续增长。

Tsinghua university, China and the world economy research center researcher Yuan Gang Ming said in an interview[fulcrum]Reporter in an interview,Central Banks use means of market regulation has played a big role.But the interest rate marketization reform is still weak,It is important to note,The current tightening of monetary policy is not conducive to China's economy continues to grow.

　　改革难点

Reform of the difficulty

　　国务院发展研究中心金融研究所综合研究室主任陈道富接受《支点》记者采访时将改革的难点归结为三个方面：一是处理好转型过程中的时机；二是处理好金融改革与经济发展的关系；三是在实现金融资源市场化的过程中要处理好市场与政府的关系。

Under the state council development research center finance research institute integrated research director Chen[fulcrum]When reporters will reform difficulty summed up in three aspects:Is a good time in the process of transformation processing;2 it is to handle the relationship between the financial reform and economic development;Three is in the process of marketization of financial resources to deal with the relationship between market and government.

　　在留任后的一次新闻发布会上，周小川承诺将推进人民币汇率形成机制改革、稳步开放中国跨境资本流动。他表示，改革将坚持循序渐进的原则。在贸易结算和投资中使用人民币的需求不断上升将有助于推进人民币资本项目改革。

At a press conference after the stay,Zhou xiaochuan pledged to promote the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism/Open China's cross-border capital flows steadily.He said,Will be adhering to the principle of gradual reform.Use the yuan in trade settlement and investment of the rising demand will help to promote the reform of renminbi capital project.

　　但无论是利率市场化还是汇率波动扩大并走向资本项目下人民币可兑换等改革，仍属于价格机制改革并未触及中国金融改革的更深层。

But whether marketization of interest rate or exchange rate fluctuation expands and towards the reform of RMB convertibility under the capital account,Still belongs to the price mechanism reform does not address the deeper financial reform in China.

　　改革渐入深水区，触及中国金融改革更深层的改革首先包括金融主体的改革。当前，中国金融领域的国有持股比例偏高，整个金融领域远未充分商业化，没有达到真正的公司治理境界。央行副行长刘士余3月下旬在北京举行的“首届诺贝尔奖经济学家中国峰会”上说，未来十年金融业需要完成四大改革，首先就是逐步降低国家持股比例。

Reform gradually into the deep waters,Touch the deeper reform of financial reform in China including the reform of the financial main body in the first place.The current,China's financial sector, state-owned shareholding is on the high side,The entire financial sector are far from fully commercialized,Did not reach the real corporate governance level.Deputy governor of the bank LiuShiYu held in Beijing in late march"The first Nobel economist China summit"The said,Four big reform over the next 10 years financial industry needs to be done,The first is gradually reducing state shareholding.

　　将金融向民营资本开放也是未来金融改革的焦点。以民营为主导的中小银行体系将缓解中小企业融资困境。这在民营资本其实已大量进入城商行和股份制银行的今天，现行的监管体系也将是未来改革必需触及的问题。

Will financial open to private capital is also the focus of financial reform in the future.Dominated by privately operated small and medium-sized bank system will relieve financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises.It actually has a lot of private capital into the joint-stock Banks and city firms today,The current regulatory system also will be the future reform must hit a problem.

　　在中国证券市场，因历任证监会主席都不遗余力的尝试改革、完善市场制度，但改革总难以触动核心问题。证监会原主席郭树清在任的18个月内，证监会出台了近70项政策规则，其改革突破之处主要是对上市和退市制度的修正，对上市公司的分红回报提出了明确要求，并加强了对内幕交易的打击力度。形成鲜明对比的是，他在任期间A股市场的表现差强人意，几乎全球最差。

In China's securities market,For successive CSRC chairman are spare no effort to try to reform/To perfect the market system,But always hard to touch the core problem.Securities regulatory commission chairman guo shuqing 18 months in office,The CSRC issued nearly 70 policy rules,The breakthrough of the reform is mainly to listing and delisting system of correction,Puts forward clear requirements on the payout of listed companies,And to strengthen the crackdown on insider trading.In contrast,A-share market during the period of his poor performance,Almost the world's worst.

　　在某些学者的眼中，郭树清的改革属于治标不治本，铲除中国资本市场的劣根性需要的是一场彻底的顶层设计。

In the eyes of some scholars,Guo's reform belongs to take temporary solution not effect a permanent cure,Wipe out the China's capital market's need is at the top of a complete design.

　　郭树清的可贵之处在于，在证监会职权范围内尽到了最大的改革尝试。如对触及证监会最根本的发审制度的质疑，郭树清提出“IPO不审行不行”的质问。2012年10月，郭树清在证监会内部推行前后台强制对调的人事制度变革，以打破一些核心部门十年不变的既有格局，这些均极深地触动了一些既得利益。

Guo is precious,Within the scope of the CSRC authority do to best attempt at reform.Such as to reach the CSRC's most fundamental question review system,Mr Guo was put forward"IPO is not line not line"The query.In October 2012,Guo inside the CSRC introduced QianHouTai reversal of the personnel system reform,To break some of the existing situation of ten years of constant core department,These are deeply touched some vested interests.

　　郭树清任内未竟的改革需要继任者肖钢持续。近期肖钢的一系列新政与郭树清一脉相承，外界解读为从严治市，法制管理，市场对其改革抱有较大期待。而持续改革的焦点无疑是坚持市场化方向，致力于建立公开、公正、公平的资本市场。

Need successor Mr. Xiao guo's unfinished reform continued.Recent series of New Deal with xiao guo,Interpreted as a rule strictly,The legal system management,Larger markets for its reform.The continuing focus is surely adhere to market-oriented reform direction,Commitment to public/justice/Fair of the capital market.

　　改革风向

The reform direction of the wind

　　本刊记者采访中获悉，在周小川的新一届央行行长任内，已推出的改革会沿着原有路径继续推进，同时呈现提速之势。

This reporter has learned from the interviews,In the new central bank governor zhou xiaochuan of the presidency,Has launched the reform will continue to push forward along the original path,At the same time accelerated the rendering.

　　目前，国有银行股份制改革已圆满收官，周小川的第三个任期可能是他完成利率及汇率市场化改革的最佳时期。中国银行国际金融研究所副所长宗良接受《支点》记者采访时表示，未来十年应该能够解决汇率和利率市场化的问题。

At present,Joint-stock reform of state-owned Banks has a complete packaged,Zhou's third term may be completed in the best of the market-oriented reform of interest rate and exchange rate.Bank of China, deputy director of the institute of international finance ZongLiang accept it[fulcrum]Reporter in an interview,Over the next 10 years should be able to solve the problem of exchange rate and interest rate marketization.

　　人民币利率市场化作为金融改革的核心，呼声很高。中央实施的管制利率严重影响了资源的有效配置和货币政策的有效性。目前贷款利率下限已是基准利率的0.7倍，2012年规定存款利率的上限为基准利率的1.1倍，实现了存款利率上限管理的零突破。

The interest rate marketization as the core of financial reform,Calls for a high.On the implementation of the central control interest rate influenced the efficient allocation of resources and the effectiveness of monetary policy.The loan interest rate lower limit is 0.7 times the benchmark interest rate,2012 deposit rates up to 1.1 times the benchmark interest rate,Implements the deposit interest rate cap management zero breakthrough.

　　“两率”属于基础性要素，是市场经济架构的重要因素，现阶段改革的关键所在。

"Rate of the two"Belong to the basic elements,Is an important factor of market economic structure,The key to reform at present stage.

　　“金融改革的核心已经启动，我们要按照市场化的方法，修正制度，将改革的影响逐步扩散，并推动风险监管体系的建设。”陈道富说，目前改革方向有了安排，具体时间很难推断，改革不是一蹴而就的，要符合中国国情，这是一个不断深化的过程。

"The core of the financial reform has been launched,We will in accordance with the market-oriented approach,Correction system,The influence of the reform will gradually spread,And promote construction of risk supervision system."Chen said,Current reform direction with the arrangement,The specific time is very difficult to infer,Reform is not achieved overnight,In accordance with China's national conditions,This is a deepening process.

　　北京安邦咨询合伙人、高级研究员贺军认为基于市场形势的需要，利率市场化进程可能会更快一些。

Beijing anbound partners/, a senior researcher at jun think needs based on market conditions,Interest rate marketization process could be quicker.

　　在资本项目方面，周小川表示，因为资本项目可兑换是一件非常复杂的事情，所以还是按逐步实现的提法来把握。

In terms of capital projects,Zhou xiaochuan said,Because capital account convertibility is a very complex thing,So according to gradually achieve formulation to grasp.

　　“我们需要在风险与开放之间做平衡，全世界没有哪个国家是完全开放的，中国保留对资本流入的控制，这是肯定的，开放不是意味着完全的自由。”左小蕾对本刊记者说。

"We need to make a balance between risk and open,No country in the world is completely open,China retain controls on capital inflows,That's for sure,Open doesn't mean complete freedom."Zuo xiaolei said to your correspondent.

　　改革风向甫定，市场对周小川的货币政策也有诸多猜测，“稳健”二字无疑是当前公认的政策方向，但结合周小川的近期言论以及市场操作，紧缩性微调的预期渐渐升温。不过，贺军认为，不能简单根据眼前情况实施紧缩，我国货币政策具有多项职能，今年年初的经济形势并不太好，应在稳健的基础上相机抉择。

Reform the wind just set,Market for Mr Zhou's monetary policy also has a lot of speculation,"robust"Word is currently recognized as policy direction,But in combination with zhou's recent comments and market operations,Expectation of tightening fine-tuning temperature gradually.but,Think jun,Austerity can't just according to the present situation,Monetary policy in our country has many functions,Earlier this year the economic situation is not so good,Should be based on sound discretion.