“根本就不存在‘货币战争’。”国际货币基金组织(IMF)金融顾问兼货币与资本市场部主任何塞-维纳尔斯日前接受《第一财经日报》专访时强调。对于这个曾被传得沸沸扬扬的词，维纳尔斯说它是个“糟糕的名称”。

"Does not exist‘The currency wars’."The international monetary fund(The imf)Financial consultant and jose weiner, director of the monetary and capital markets, has been accepted[First financial daily]In an interview with emphasis on.For this had been handed over,Weiner said it was a"A bad name".

　　近期，日本等发达国家极度宽松的货币政策引发了各界对“货币战争”（竞争性贬值）风险的广泛担忧。但IMF在最新一期《世界经济展望》报告中称，这一风险“被过度渲染了”，并认为当前全球主要货币“似乎并未出现任何大幅偏离中期基本面的情况”。

The recent,Developed countries such as Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy caused the from all walks of life to"The currency wars"(Competitive devaluations)Risk of widespread concern.But the The imf in the latest issue[World economic outlook]Said in a report,This risk"By excessive apply colours to a drawing",And that currently the world's major currencies"Does not seem to be any big deviation medium-term fundamentals".

　　维纳尔斯认为，发达经济体的宽松货币政策有利于全球经济增长。但他同时表示，为了不让央行“唱独角戏”，发达国家的财政政策需要发挥更大作用，“货币政策为每个人买来的时间，要被政府利用在结构性改革上”。并且，发达国家政府也需要制定可靠的中期财政整顿计划。

Wiener, think,Developed economies's loose monetary policy is conducive to global economic growth.But he also says,In order not to let the central bank"A monologue",The fiscal policy of developed countries need to play a bigger role,"Monetary policy to buy everyone a long time,To use on structural reforms by the government".and,Governments in the developed countries also need to make credible medium-term fiscal consolidation plan.

中国需谨慎对待影子银行风险 China need to be careful to shadow banking risks

　　第一财经日报：在IMF看来，中国目前最大的金融风险是什么？

First financial daily:In the point of view,China is the biggest financial risk?

　　维纳尔斯：过去数年里，中国在金融系统改革和加强监管方面取得了巨大进展，我认为这是一个很好的起点。当然，中国的信贷在这几年里也出现了快速增长，因此监管层有必要确保银行有充足的资本金来应对潜在的不良贷款。

Wiener,:Over the past few years,And strengthen regulation in the financial system reform in China has made great progress,I think this is a good starting point.Of course,,China's credit in this few years, there is rapid growth,So regulators are necessary to ensure that Banks have enough capital to cope with the potential bad loans.

　　另外，我认为很重要的一点是，监管层要继续谨慎对待快速增长的影子银行部门。尽管影子银行一方面反映了资本市场的繁荣发展，对经济增长也有积极作用，但由于这些金融体系和产品对消费者而言还较为陌生，也未受到严格监管，就有必要让金融监管网络覆盖到这些非银行体系的金融媒介和产品，从而确保资本市场的改善与金融稳定相一致。

In addition,I think it is important,Regulators should continue to caution the rapid growth of shadow banking sector.Despite the shadow Banks on the one hand, reflect the prosperity and development of capital market,Also have a positive effect on economic growth,But as a result of the financial system and the product also is unfamiliar for consumers,Is not regulated,It is necessary to network coverage to the non-bank financial regulation system of financial intermediaries and products,To ensure the consistent improvement of capital market and financial stability.

　　日报：中国目前是否还存在经济增长的风险？对于第一季度GDP同比增长7.7%的数据，IMF是否感到惊讶？

daily:If China is still the risk of economic growth?Data for GDP growth of 7.7% year-on-year in the first quarter,Whether the The imf was surprised?

　　维纳尔斯：我认为中国经济已经在一定程度上实现了“软着陆”。目前中国经济增速依然很高，当然与过去几年内的平均增速相比略有降低。IMF预计中国今年将增长8%。我认为目前的增速仍然是可观的，中国目前最重要的是要实现国内经济再平衡，增加消费相对投资的比重，让国内需求来主导经济。我认为8%左右的增速不会让中国经济过热。

Wiener,:I think to some extent, China's economy has achieved"A soft landing".At present China's economic growth is still high,Of course with a slightly lower than average growth over the past few years.The The imf expects China to grow by 8% this year.I think the growth is still considerable,China is now the most important thing is to realize domestic economic rebalancing,Increase the proportion of consumption relative to investment,Allow domestic demand to dominate the economy.I don't think about 8% of the growth will make China's economy is overheating.

　“货币战争是个糟糕的名称” "The currency wars is a bad name"

　　日报：你认为“货币战争”是一个错误概念，还是一项切实的风险？

daily:Do you think"The currency wars"Is a wrong concept,Is a real risk?

　　维纳尔斯：我认为“货币战争”是一个糟糕的名称，因为根本就不存在“货币战争”。我看到的是，在过去数年里，全球失衡是下降的，因为存在经常账户盈余的国家已经降低了盈余，赤字国家也降低了赤字。这是令人满意的。而实际有效汇率的变动也帮助实现了这一变化。我认为这是好的进展。

Wiener,:I think"The currency wars"Is a bad name,Because does not exist"The currency wars".I see is,In the past few years,Global imbalances are declining,Because there is a current account surplus countries have reduced the surplus,Deficit countries also reduces the deficit.This is satisfactory.And the change of real effective exchange rate also help achieve the change.I think this is good progress.

　　如果你指的是发达经济体实行的宽松货币政策，或许通过资本流动加速对新兴市场造成了溢出效应，那么我要说的是，宽松货币政策只是新兴市场资本流入的因素之一，其他吸引因素还包括新兴市场的高增长以及更好的经济基本面。另外，发达经济体的宽松货币政策也让整个世界经济变得更好，因为没有这些政策的话，发达经济体会崩溃，全球经济会陷入衰退。所以我认为没有理由说这是“货币战争”。

If you are referring to developed economies of loose monetary policy,Perhaps through the capital flow speed had a spillover effect on emerging markets,So I want to say,Loose monetary policy is just emerging market capital flows into one of the factors,To attract other factors include high growth in emerging markets and better economic fundamentals.In addition,Developed economies of loose monetary policy to the whole world economy better,Because there is no such policies,Developed economies will collapse,The global economy will slide into recession.So I see no reason to say it is"The currency wars".

　　日报：除了对新兴市场的溢出效应，对于发达经济体本身，你认为这些宽松货币政策是否会导致中期内的通胀风险？

daily:In addition to the spillover effects in emerging markets,Itself for developed economies,Do you think the loose monetary policy will lead to inflationary risks in the medium term?

　　维纳尔斯：在主要发达经济体，例如美国和欧元区，通胀预期都很稳定，而日本的问题则是通缩。但我认为很重要的一点是，这些货币政策为每个人买来的时间，要被政府利用在结构性改革上。例如，美国要解决财政问题；日本要采取结构性改革来提高潜在增长率；欧元区也要通过结构性改革提高增长潜力，采取慎重的财政紧缩政策，修复脆弱的银行系统。所以，好好利用宽松货币政策买来的时间去做正确的事情才是关键。因为这样才能让这些宽松货币政策更早地撤回，才能把这些风险甩在身后。

Wiener,:In the major developed economies,Such as the United States and the euro zone,Inflation expectations are stable,But Japan's problems is deflation.But I think it is important,The monetary policy to buy everyone a long time,To use on structural reforms by the government.Such as the,The United States to solve financial problems;Japan's structural reforms should be taken to increase the potential growth rate;The euro zone will through structural reforms to increase growth potential,Take deliberate tightening of fiscal policy,Repair the fragile banking system.so,Make good use of loose monetary policy to buy time to do the right thing is the key.Because in this way can we make these loose monetary policy to withdraw the earlier,Can be put behind these risks in.

　　日报：IMF最新公布的《全球金融稳定报告》提醒新兴市场决策者要警惕跨境资本流动增加和国内金融脆弱性不断上升带来的风险。你认为新兴市场国家该如何抵御资本流动风险？是否应该使用资本管制措施？

daily:The The imf's latest[Global financial stability report]Remind emerging market policymakers to alert to cross-border capital flows increase the risk of rising and domestic financial fragility.Do you think how to resist the liquidity risk in emerging markets?Whether capital controls should be used?

　　维纳尔斯：对于新兴市场来说，能够吸引资本流入很重要，我们认为这是有利的。但有时如果资本流入过多，流入太快，就可能造成经济过热并威胁到金融稳定。新兴市场有一些可用措施来缓解宏观经济和金融稳定风险。例如，让汇率发挥作用，用更灵活的汇率来缓解资本波动；外汇储备水平较低的国家，在一些情况下也可以增加外汇储备。多数情况下，可以通过调整货币与财政政策组合或使用宏观审慎政策来抵御资本流动风险。在特定情况下，也可以使用资本管制。但不能滥用这些措施来替代其他必要的调整。

Wiener,:For emerging markets,Is very important to attract capital inflows,We think this is good.But sometimes if there is excessive capital inflows,Flows too fast,May cause overheating and threaten financial stability.Emerging markets have some available measures to reduce risk of macroeconomic and financial stability.Such as the,Let the exchange rate,To ease the capital with a more flexible exchange rate fluctuations;The low level of foreign exchange reserves,In some cases will also increase in foreign exchange reserves.In most cases,Can be used by adjusting the combination of monetary and fiscal policy or macro-prudential policy to ward off liquidity risks.Under certain circumstances,Can also make use of capital controls.But can't misuse of such measures to replace other necessary adjustments.

　央行不应“唱独角戏” The central bank should not be"A monologue"

　　日报：但全球主要央行要找到合适的“退出”策略以及最佳的“退出”时机是很难的。

daily:But the world's major central Banks to find the right"quit"Strategies, and the best"quit"Timing is very difficult.

　　维纳尔斯：是的。必须避免过早退出导致经济重陷衰退，同时也要避免其他决策者不作为、央行“唱独角戏”的情况，因为这种局面持续得越久，宽松货币政策对金融稳定造成的副作用就会越大，风险也会越大。

Wiener,:yes.Must avoid premature exit, leading to economic recession,At the same time also to avoid other decision makers/The central bank"A monologue"In the case,Because of this situation to last longer,Loose monetary policy to financial stability caused side effects will be greater,The greater the risk.

　　日报：为了避免央行“唱独角戏”，财政政策该如何发挥更大的作用？

daily:In order to avoid the central bank"A monologue",How fiscal policy should play a bigger role?

　　维纳尔斯：如果看一下美国，美国需要设计出一项可靠的中期财政战略，这样才能走向更可靠的财政调整道路。日本也是如此，日本政府目前正在推出新的财政刺激计划，但这么做的同时必须要有一项可靠的中期财政战略来支撑公共财政可持续性，从而支撑主权债务信心。这是至关重要的，因为在日本，很多银行都持有日本国债，确保中期财政可信度是根本问题。

Wiener,:If you take a look at the United States,America needs to design a credible medium-term fiscal strategy,So you can go to more reliable path of fiscal adjustment.The same was true,The Japanese government is to launch a new fiscal stimulus plan,But to do so at the same time there must be a credible medium-term fiscal strategy to support the public fiscal sustainability,To prop up confidence in the sovereign debt.This is very important,Because in Japan,Many Banks are holding JGBS,To ensure that the medium-term fiscal credibility is the fundamental problem.

　　日报：但目前为止日本还没有出台这样的中期财政计划。

daily:But now Japan has not issued such a medium-term fiscal plan.

　　维纳尔斯：日本应该有这样的计划，而且IMF也如此建议。

Wiener,:Japan should have such plan,And the The imf is such advice.