一 a

　　据报道，正当2007/2008年全球金融海啸最严峻的时候，英国女王伊丽莎白二世于2008年11月视察了伦敦经济学院，讨论经济形势。她随后发问：为什么当初就没有一个人注意到它(金融危机)？为此，2009年7月，英国顶尖经济学家因未预测到本次金融海啸向英国女王道歉，认为没能预测出这次危机的时间、幅度和严重性是许多智慧人士的集体失误。1929年美国股市崩盘前大金融学家欧文费雪指出，美国“股市已经达到了永恒的上涨期”（他自己投资股票，股灾发生后，损失了几百万美元,倾家荡产，负债累累，直到1947年在穷困潦倒中去世）。2009年1月，金融海啸的形势还非常严峻，时任美国副总统切尼接受了美联社的采访。当被问到“政府为什么没有预见到这次‘大萧条’以来最大的金融危机”时，他答道，“无论多聪明的人都不可能预测到这次危机，我不相信有人预见到了”。无独有偶，据《华夏时报》记者对我国券商2008年和2009年的券商宏观策略的初步研究：券商宏观策略基本上是集体看错，券商的宏观策略，真实的谎言。

According to the report，While 2007/2008 global financial tsunami the most serious，Britain's queen Elizabeth ii in November 2008, visited the London school of economics，Discuss economic situation。She then ask questions：Why did you no one notice it(Financial crisis)？For this，July 2009，Britain's top economists forecast for not to the financial tsunami to the queen of England apologize，Don't think can predict what the crisis of time、Range and severity is wisdom of many people collective failure。In 1929, the U.S. stock market crash before the large financial experts Owen fisher said，The United States“The stock market has reached the eternal rise period”（His own investing in stocks，Crash occurred after，Lost millions of dollars,shirt，In debt，Until 1947 in poor died）。January 2009，Financial tsunami that the situation is very serious of，The U.S. vice President dick cheney accepted the ap interview。When asked“Why does the government failed to foresee that at this time‘depression’The largest since the financial crisis”when，He replied，“No matter how smart people are impossible to predict to the crisis，I don't believe anyone foreseen”。similarly，According to《Chinese times》The reporter to our country brokers in 2008 and 2009, a preliminary study of the macro strategies brokers：Brokers macro strategies is basically collective wrong，Brokers macro strategies，True lies。

　　二 two

　　2003年，全球都在反思2001年美国网络泡沫的破灭，经济学家林毅夫对预测到了网络泡沫的美国经济学家罗伯特·希勒提出了疑问，林毅夫说：美国股票市场2001年泡沫的破灭，现在看起来的话，是显而易见，当然会破灭。为什么当时那么多人没有看到？尤其我想问的是专家、学者，尤其是研究金融的学者到底看到没有？……希勒教授做了不少的调查企业，调查了基金对股票的看法，不知道是否调查了研究金融学家的看法，如果有的话，他的意见和一般基金经理和一般群众有没有不一样，如果有不一样的话，是不是说作为经济学家或者作为研究金融的学者比一般老百姓在股票市场有更好的赚钱的机会。我们知道，希勒本人赚了不少钱，在股票价格最高的时候全部卖出去，是不是多数的经济学家和金融学家都是这样？如果希勒是少数，绝大的金融学家和一般群众对股票市场繁荣的看法是一样的，我们就要问为什么专门研究股票市场、专门研究金融市场学者学了那么多，但是对他一点帮助都没有？

2003 years，All the world in reflections on the 2001 in the United States the bursting of the dotcom bubble，Economists predict the Internet bubble of Lin, the American economists Robert Alan shearer put forward the question，Justin yifu Lin said：The U.S. stock market 2001 bust，Now look words，Is obvious，Of course will burst。Why when so many people didn't see？Especially I want to ask is experts、scholars，Especially the scholars exactly see no financial？......Professor Alan shearer did a lot of investigation enterprise，Investigation of the fund for the stock views，Do not know whether the financial experts investigation research point of view，If any，His opinion and general fund managers and the masses have different，If there is not the same thing，Is economist or as a research as a financial scholars in the stock market than the general common people have a better chance of making money。We know，Shearer I earn a lot of money，The stock price has the highest all sold out，Is most of the economists and financial experts is this？If the shearer is small，Most financial experts and the masses of the prosperity of the stock market is the same view，We will ask why a special study of the stock market、A special study of the financial market scholars learn so much，But for him to no avail？

　　林毅夫的问题就是我的困惑，我相信，这也是我们全体投资者的纠结，尤其值得我们那些所谓顶级的经济学家汗颜！如果我们国家的“神七”、“神八”、“神九”发射上天之后，不知它落在哪里？宇航员生命状态如何？这样的“嫦娥奔月”计划还能进行下去吗？我们那些经常指点江山、激扬文字的大经济学家，就一句“我们都会犯错误”，就可以为自己开脱？犯点小错误我们应该理解，可是大经济学家犯的都是集体“大错误”呀！也就是说经济学家金融专家的社会价值是什么？他们发表的专家意见值得我们相信吗？

The problem is that my Justin yifu Lin confusion，I believe that，This is also our all investors entanglements，It is particularly worth us at the top of the so-called economists shame！If our country“God seven”、“God eight”、“God nine”Launch after god，Don't know it landed in where？Astronauts life status？this“Chang e”Plans also can continue？We those who often show status、Encouraging words big economists，Just a“We all make mistakes”，For his vindication？Make mistakes we should understand，But big economists make is the collective“Big mistake”ah！That is economists financial experts social value??? What??？They published expert advice worth us to believe that？

　　三 three

　　笔者反思，一定有更深刻的原因，我们现行的正统学院经济学逻辑存在根本缺陷，笔者提出思考这一问题的两个角度。

The author reflection，There must be more profound reasons，Our current orthodox school there economic logic fundamental flaw，The author puts forward thinking this problem of two angles。

　　其一，为学日益，为道日损。人类思想的发展在1687年牛顿的《自然哲学的数学原理》问世后发生了根本性的转变，以后的人类思考基本着牛顿自然哲学范式不停的深耕细作，逐渐形成了各门学科，数学、物理学、化学、生物学等等，并得到了空前的发展。经济学鼻祖亚当·斯密的《国富论》就是诞生于牛顿哲学最辉煌的1776年（比牛顿学说晚90年），亚当·斯密就是沿用牛顿的思考方式，用自然力的逻辑来解释社会现象，把世界看做是和谐的、有秩序的质量卓绝的机械装置，寻找与自然秩序一致的社会秩序，建立与自然和谐一致的社会和谐，《国富论》就是把这一思想扩展到政治经济学领域。19世纪末经济学家马歇尔受到牛顿力学作用力与反作用力的相互作用形成均衡的思想启示，使用供给与需求，买方与卖方两种力量的相互作用，分析构成经济系统的平衡稳定状态。总之科学、经济学迅速发展都深深地打上了牛顿逻辑，在金融学领域就形成了占正统地位的有效市场思想，把金融市场看成是物理系统，不断地运用各种数学模型，思考分析越来越细，越来越数学化，越来越追求精确化，“为学日益”。经济学从此陷入了“物理羡慕”的思维定式，极为注重形而下的“器”、“术”的研究，而忽视了形而上的“道”的思考，“为道日损”。

one，To learn more，WeiDaoRiSun。The development of the human thought in 1687 Newton《Mathematical principles of natural philosophy》The advent of the fundamental shift occurred，The basic human thinking after the Newton natural philosophy deep turns on the paradigm，Gradually formed each subject，mathematics、physics、chemical、Biology,，And get the unprecedented development。Economics ancestor of Adam Smith《The wealth of nations》Born in Newton philosophy is the most brilliant 1776 years（Newton's theory than 90 years later），Adam Smith is used Newton's way of thinking，With the logic of natural force to explain social phenomenon，As the world is harmonious、Have the quality of the order of the great mechanical device，Looking for and the natural order the same social order，Establish and nature of social harmony，《The wealth of nations》Is this a thought expanded to political economy。The 19 th century economists Marshall Newtonian mechanics by an equal and opposite reaction formation of the interaction of balanced thinking inspiration，Use of supply and demand，The buyer and the seller two forces interactions，Analysis of the economic system balance a stable state。In short science、Rapid development economics were deeply hit the Newton logic，In the finance field of orthodoxy position in the formation of the effective market thought，The financial markets as a physical system，Continue to use all kinds of mathematical model，Thinking more and fine，More and mathematical，More and more precision pursuit，“To learn more”。Economics from now on in“Physical envy”Thinking formulary，Pay attention to the very substantial“device”、“art”research，And ignore the metaphysical“way”thinking，“WeiDaoRiSun”。

　　金融市场是具人性的物理系统，经济金融学一半是科学一半是艺术，因此金融市场中科学的属性以牛顿范式来把握，而人性的、艺术的属性则需要以思考更一般性规律的哲学来理解，然而目前的主流经济金融思考过于重视其科学化而忽视了其哲学化的思考，用科学逻辑企图追求精确的正确，结果往往是精确的错误（集体看错），还不如用哲学的思考舍弃精确的正确，把握模糊的正确。

Financial market is a human nature of physical systems，Economic finance is half art is half science，So in the financial markets of scientific attributes to grasp FanShiLai Newton，And the human nature、Art is the attribute to more general rules need to think about the philosophy to understand，However the current mainstream economic and financial thinking too much emphasis on its scientific and ignored its philosophy of thinking，With scientific logic attempt to pursue accurate correctly，The result is often accurate mistakes（Collective look wrong），In a philosophical thinking as precise right away，Grasp the fuzzy correctly。

　　其二，是索罗斯的反身性思想。索罗斯是个伟大的金融思想家和实践者，他继承波普尔的哲学思想，强调人的认知的不完美性，这正与经济学完美竞争理论人的认知是完美的（人是理性的、信息是完全透明的和竞争是充分的）前提相矛盾。索罗斯认为在参与者有思维能力的前提下，参与者对世界的看法永远是局部的和扭曲的（谬误性），并且这些扭曲的观点会影响参与者所处的环境，参与者与环境相互影响而形成错误的判断，并由这种错误的判断导致错误的行为结果（反身性），谬误性和反身性就构成人类判断的不确定性。“横看成岭侧成峰，远近高低各不同，不识庐山真面目，只缘身在此山中”。在索罗斯看来，人与周围环境的关系有两种，一种是没有反身性、独立于人的思维的，如自然现象的春夏秋冬、日落日出、生老病死、天晴下雨，甚至金融市场的熊市牛市等等，他们都客观存在，自然属性，人的思维只能认识他们，不能改变其逻辑，具确定性，这种现象可以用牛顿范式（科学）很好的把握；另一种是与人的思维有反身性的，主要是社会现象，艺术与美、善与恶、社会意识形态等等，这些判断与人的主观意识相关联，与人类的认识不独立，既有一定的自然属性又有明显的主观属性，所以具有不确定性，不能完全用牛顿科学范式来有效把握。经济学家厉以宁用了一个简单比喻区分了这两类情形，“股票市场跟天气不一样，如果所有的人都说下雨，它该晴天还是晴天；如果所有的人都认为股票要涨，股票就真的会涨了”。金融市场具有典型的反身性特点，是自然属性和社会属性、确定性与不确定性的混合体。牛顿曾在“南海泡沫”损失巨大，他曾说：“我能计算出天体的运行轨迹，却难以预料人性的疯狂”，牛顿也成了金融市场反身性和不确定性的牺牲品。也如马克·吐温所言：历史不会重复自己，但会押着同样的韵脚。因此我们既要用科学范式来把握其确定性，又要用哲学思维来把握其谬误性、反身性和不确定性，后者正是主流金融市场理论所缺乏的极其关键因素，笔者认为，这是造成经济金融学困惑的最深刻原因之一。

The second，Soros is the reverse sexual thought。Soros is a great financial thinkers and practitioners，He inherited Karl raimund popper of philosophy，Emphasize the people's cognitive the imperfections of，This is the perfect competition with economics theory the people's cognitive is perfect（People are rational、Information is completely transparent and competition is sufficient）Premise contradictory。Soros thinks in the participants have under the premise of thinking ability，Participants's view about the world forever is local and distorted（Fallacy sex），And these distorted view would affect participants surroundings，Participants and environment influence each other and the formation of a wrong judgment，And by this kind of mistake of judgment the behavior of the result in wrong results（Reverse sexual），False sex and reverse sex is a human judgment of uncertainties。“Horizontal as ridge from side，Near and far different height，Not to face lushan mountain，Only the good luck body is in the mountain”。The soros seems，The relationship between the people and the surrounding environment has two kinds，One is not to reverse sex、Independent of man's thinking，Such as natural phenomenon of chun xia qiu dong、Sunrise sunset、cradle、Sunny rain，Even financial markets of a bear market bull market, and so on，They all objective existence，Natural attributes，The person's thinking can only know them，Can't change their logic，With certainty，This phenomenon can use Newton paradigm（science）A good grasp；The other is with thinking have reverse sex，Basically be social phenomenon，Art and beauty、Good and evil、Social ideology, and so on，These judgments and the subjective consciousness related，And human understanding of independence，Have some natural attributes and have obvious subjective attributes，So is uncertain，Can't entirely with Newton's science FanShiLai hold effectively。Economists li yining used a simple metaphor of these two kinds of circumstances distinction，“The stock market with the weather，If all the people say it rains，It this sunny day or a sunny day；If all men think a stock will go up，The stock is really will rise”。Financial market is typical of the reverse sexual characteristics，Is the natural attribute and social attributes、A mixture of certainty and uncertainty。Newton was in“South sea bubble”lost，He said：“I can calculate the orbits of celestial objects，But difficult to predict the madness of human nature”，Newton also became a financial market reverse sexual and uncertainties of victims。Also, as Mark Twain said：History won't repeat themselves，But will he the same YunJiao。So we should use science FanShiLai master its certainty，And with philosophy thinking to grasp its false sex、Reverse sexual and uncertainty，The latter is mainstream financial market theory of extremely key factors，The author thinks that，This is cause economic finance confused the most profound reasons。

　　关于人类对世界的认识，我国明代哲学家王阳明在11岁（1482年）时写了一首小诗很有启示，“山近月远觉月小，便道此山大于月；若人有眼大如天，还见山小月更阔”。可见我们的日常直觉判断往往是错误的，由于我们没有“眼大如天”，所以我们一定要清楚，认识自然现象和社会现象要有不同的思维方式，尤其是分析社会现象时，一定要牢记自身思维的谬误性和反身性，我们的思维都处在谬误性和反身性中，我们的思维起点和方式就可能是错误的，所以投资大师索罗斯在重大的投资行为决策前，先要“试错”，检验自己的逻辑判断是否正确。

About human's knowledge of the world，Wang Ming dynasty in our country philosopher in 11 years of age（1482 years）Wrote a little poem is a revelation，“Mountain in recent months on small far sleep，The pavement is greater than the mountain on；If a person has eyes as big as a day，Also see XiaoYue mountain more broadly”。Visible our daily intuitionistic judgment is often wrong，Since we have no“Eyes as big as a day”，So we must clear，Know natural phenomenon and social phenomenon will have a different way of thinking，Especially analysis social phenomenon，Bear in mind that their own mental errors in the sex and reverse sex，Our thinking is in error and reverse sexual in nature，Our thinking starting point and the way they may be wrong，So investment master at major investment behavior soros before the decision，first“Trial and error”，Test their logic is correct。

　　人类思考哲学或者“道”的顶峰是两千多年前的“轴心期”，以后人类沿着科学的逻辑“为学日益”，而哲学、道的思考“为道日损”。经济学、金融市场不仅需要科学，同样也需要哲学。哲学的思考、谬误性和反身性的思考在正统经济学逻辑中是不够的或者缺少的，在笔者看来这就是我们经常在金融市场中集体看错的根源。

Human thinking philosophy or“way”Is the peak of more than two thousand years ago“Axis period”，The logic of human science after along“To learn more”，And philosophy、Way of thinking“WeiDaoRiSun”。economics、Financial market needs not only science，Also need philosophy。Philosophy thinking、False sex and sexual thinking reverse in orthodox economics in logic is not enough or missing，In the author so this is what we often in financial markets collective look wrong roots。