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监测投资者情绪的若干指标--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2012-07-21

  行为金融学研究表明,投资者情绪是研究市场趋势的一个重要指标投资者的心理会使得资产价格偏离其内在价值,在中短期,投资者情绪甚至可以直接影响到资产定价。

Behavioral finance research shows,Investors mood is the market trend is one of important index,Investor psychological makes asset prices from its intrinsic value,In the short-term,Investors emotions can even directly affect the asset pricing。

  既然投资者情绪对股市波动有这么重要的影响,那么如何度量其影响程度呢?第一财经日报《财商》记者浏览了若干学术论文,梳理出一些投资者情绪测量指标。主要有三类,分别为客观指标、主观指标和复合指标。

Since the stock market fluctuation of investor's emotion have so important influence,So how to measure the effect degree?The first financial daily《Wealth business》Reporter browse some scientific papers,This paper sorts out some investors emotional measurement indexes。There are three major types,The objective index respectively、Subjective indicators and composite index。

  客观指数 Objective index

  客观指数通过采集金融市场中的交易数据进行整理分析,从侧面客观反映投资者的情绪和行为。

The objective index through the acquisition in the financial market transaction data analysis were finishing,From the side reflects the mood of the investors and behavior。

  (一)封闭式基金折价。这是目前应用得最多的投资者情绪代理变量,一般来说,折价率上升(或下降),意味着市场情绪相对低落(或高涨)。

(a)Discount of close-ended fund。This is the application of the most investors proxy variable emotion,Generally speaking,Discount rate rose(Or down),Means the market mood relatively low(Or high)。

  (二)IPO 发行量及首日收益。股票市场中常存在“热市”与“冷市”现象,IPO 收益低是市场时机选择的结果,因此,IPO 发行量及上市首日收益均能较好反映投资者的热情程度,且均与情绪正相关。

(two)The circulation of the first IPO and benefits。The stock market often exist“Hot city”and“Cold city”phenomenon,IPO low profits is market timing choice results,so,IPO circulation and revenue are market-watchers better reflected investors' enthusiasm degree,And they are all positive correlation with emotion。

  (三)交易量。一般来说,当投资者情绪高涨或低落时,交易量会增加或减少(在市场跳水时,投资者会大量抛售手中股票,交易量也会放大,但其持续时间相对较短)。

(three)volume。Generally speaking,When investor sentiment or is low,Volume will increase or decrease(In the market when diving,A lot of investors sell-off,Volume will also enlarged,But the relatively short duration)。

  (四)共同基金净赎回。该指标与大盘股未来收益显著正相关,与小盘股未来收益虽然也正相关,但不显著。赎回量增大(或减少),说明投资者的预期变得悲观(或乐观)。

(four)Mutual fund net redemption。The bulk lots stock index and the future earnings significant positive correlation,And the small dish stock future earnings although also are related,But not significant。Redemption increase quantity(Or reduce),The expected that investors become pessimistic(Or optimistic)。

  主观指数 Subjective index

  主观指数通过问卷调查形式直接调查投资者对下一期市场行情的预期,反映了投资者对市场未来走势的主观看法。

Subjective index through questionnaire survey form directly to the next issue survey investors market expectations,Reflects the trend of the market of the future investors subjective views。

  (一)个体投资者协会指数。该指数由美国个体投资者协会每月问卷调查投资者对未来行情的判断,基于其看涨或看跌比例编制而成,主要反映的是个体投资者情绪的变化。

(a)Individual investors association index。The index by the American association of individual investors monthly survey for the future of the market investors judgment,Based on the bullish or bearish proportion weaves and into,Mainly reflects the individual investors the shift in mood。

  (二)投资者智慧指数。投资者智慧指数主要是针对投资专业人士的看涨和看跌比例编制而成,更多的是反映机构投资者的情绪。

(two)Investors wisdom index。Investors wisdom index is mainly aimed at investment professionals rising and falling of the proportion and into,More is reflected the mood of the institutional investors。

  (三)投资者信心指数和消费者信心指数。

(three)Investor confidence index and consumer confidence index。

  投资者信心指数(Investors Confidence Index:ICI)是指投资者对未来投资前景所持有的一种主观态度,如若看好投资前景,那么投资者就会认为投资未来有保证。消费者信心指数常被用来衡量公众对于目前和未来经济的信心程度。

Investor confidence index(Investors Confidence Index:ICI)"Means the investors for future investment prospects hold a kind of subjective attitude,If value investment prospects,Investors can invest in the future that is guaranteed。The consumer confidence index is often used to measure the public for the present and future economic confidence level。

  诚然,主观指标可直观反映投资者情绪的变化,但现实中投资者情绪到底在多大程度上会影响到其实际的投资决策,这可能因人、因情境而异。

admittedly,Subjective indicators can be directly reflected investors' mood changes,But in reality exactly how much investors mood in will affect the actual investment decision,This may be because of the person、Due to situation and different。

  复合指标 Composite index

  上述不管是主观(或直接)指标还是客观(或间接)指标,均只能从某个侧面反映投资者心理变化。

The above both subjective(Or directly)Index or objective(Or indirect)index,Only from a side are reflected investors' psychological changes。

  近两年来,人们开始采用新的能更为全面度量投资者情绪变化的指标,即把多个单个主观或客观指标综合在一起,暂称之为复合指标。复合指标应该是今后情绪测量的主要发展方向之一。

In the past two years,People started to adopt new can more comprehensive measure of investor's emotion change index,That is more than the individual subjective or objective indexes and comprehensive together,Temporary called composite index。Composite index should is the main development direction of emotional measurement of one。



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