本报讯 期指四大合约中除了IF1212飘红之外，其余三合约昨日均收盘微幅下跌。但昨天的收盘升水幅度竟然超过了30个点，创出了主力合约年内升水的新高，也是自2011年11月3日以来收盘升水的最高。弱势中升水，意味着市场即将变盘，还是预示着新一轮下跌即将开始？而多位专家也莫衷一是。

Report from our correspondent period four large contracts except to IF1212 wave red outside，The other three contracts are closed yesterday were slightly lower。But yesterday's close range premium actually more than 30 points，Making the main contract years at a record high of premium，Is also the on 3 November, 2011 closed at the highest since the water。Weak water in，The market is about to change means that dish，Or that a new round of fall is about to begin？And many experts also unable to agree。

连续5日大幅升水 Five days a liter of water

　　在多数投资者的印象中，期指连续大幅升水的状况还是出现在2010年股指期货刚推出时。在当前这种弱势市场行情中，期指不贴水就属于难得了，然而自上周以来，期指反倒连续5日大幅升水，并出现逐步走高的现象。昨日收盘时，IF1208较之现货升水30.28点，较昨日再次提升两个点。IF1303升水幅度达到101.08点，IF1212升水幅度也超过70点。

In most investors impression，Refers to a period for the condition of the premium or appeared in 2010 stock index futures's just come out。In the current this weak market，That do not belong to the discount of rare，Yet since since last week，Instead of five consecutive days to a liter of water，And there is gradually go high phenomenon。Yesterday at the，IF1208 spot premium than 30.28 points，Ascension is again two points yesterday。IF1303 premium rate to 101.08 points，IF1212 premium rate is more than 70 points。

　　《大众证券报》统计发现，昨日最大的升水幅度出现在早盘9:56，期指较之现货升水34.95点，这一直持续到10:05之后。以1分钟的频率观察，全天最低的升水时间仅仅出现了3分钟，其余交易时间，升水幅度均超过20点。

《Public stock certificate report》Statistics found that，Yesterday's biggest premium rate appeared in the earlier 9:56，Period compared with 34.95 points to spot premium，This continued until 10:05 later。With 1 minute frequency observation，The lowest premium time all day just appeared in 3 minutes，The rest of the trade time，Premium rate by more than 20 points。

　　“期指最近大幅升水的现象，很多同行也都在找原因。”中证期货研究部副总经理刘宾昨日向《大众证券报》表示，有人说这与沪深300成分股的调整有关系，但是这个事件已经是过去式，有何影响呢？

“Refers to a liter of water of recent phenomenon，Many are looking for reasons counterparts。”Deputy general manager futures research has LiuBin to yesterday《Public stock certificate report》said，Some say this and the adjustment of the csi 300 stocks have relations，But the event has is past，What effect will the？

　　刘宾进一步表示，可能有两个的原因，首先是期指很长时间处于贴水或微幅升水的状态，几乎没有期现套利的机会，套利资金也就淡出市场了，而现在这个机会又突然出现，套利资金还没有入场，或者说没有准备好，所以升水幅度无法修复；此外，期指上的多头在抵抗，现货沪深300两个交易日的下跌更多是因为ST股与B股暴跌的带动，而非沪深300的自然下跌，现货更差反倒引发升水。

LiuBin further said，There may be two reasons，First phase is to a long time in a discount or slightly, the state of the premium，Almost no period of arbitrage opportunities now，Arbitrage funds will fade out the market，And now this opportunity and suddenly appeared，Arbitrage funds haven't admission，Or not ready，So the premium rate cannot be repaired；In addition，In the long period that resistance，Spot csi 300 two trading down more because of the ST stocks with a B shares slump drive，Rather than the csi 300 natural decline，More bad but spot by liter of water。

　净空头寸超1万手 Headroom positions exceeds 10000 hands

　　相对于期指升水显现出的乐观，昨日多空持仓则令人担忧。据中金所公布的数据显示，主力合约前二十名多头席位周二减仓774手至46009手，就连近日来比较看多的光大期货的席位也减掉2581手。相反前二十名空头席位周二则增仓604手至56408手，国泰君安与海通期货分别加仓404手与374手，中证期货减仓256手。

Relative to stage show optimism refers to the premium，Yesterday is worrying many empty position。According to figures released zhongjin display，Main contract top 20 seats more than 774 on Tuesday decrease a storehouse hand to 46009 hands，Even in recent days more bullish everbright futures also lose 2581 seats in the hand。Instead top 20 seats short on Tuesday is 604 to 56408 ing hand hand，Cathay Pacific hand and haitong futures positions well 404 respectively in the hands and 374 hands，Futures decrease a storehouse 256 has hand。

　　空头继续强势，但是主力合约又是大幅升水，未来行情到底如何演绎。南华期货研究所上海金融研究中心蒋克雷向记者分析：“多头不愿放弃，空头也很强势，更奇怪的是周二的成交量也很小，后市可能要变盘了。有这么一个逻辑，如果空头想往下打压做空，那期货价格会下来，而现在这个点肯定有套利盘进去的话，则会出现现货涨、期货跌的双向收敛。”

Bear continue to enjoy strong，But the main contract is a liter of water，The future market exactly how to perform。South China futures research institute Shanghai financial research center JiangKeLei analysis to the reporter：“Bull is not willing to give up，Bear is also very strong，More strange is the volume of sales on Tuesday was very small，Market outlook may want to change the dish。With such a logic，If bear wants to go down to empty，The futures price will come down，But now the point must have arbitrage dish in words，Can appear spot price rises、Futures fell two-way convergence。”

　　但上海中期的最新观点却认为，目前股指点位处于布林通道下轨附近，或预示着后市股指将易涨难跌。同时由于期现价差已突破无套利空间的上限，因而投资者可以采取“买现货卖期货”的正向套利操作，目前市场上有嘉实沪深300(160706,基金吧)ETF和华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF两个基金实现了对沪深300指数的完全复制，投资者不妨“买入300ETF基金、同时卖出IF1208合约”并等待价差的合理回归。

But in the middle of Shanghai latest ideas but think，At present stock index point in sergey channel near the rail，Or that stock index is up is hard to fall。At the same time because of the price is already broke through no-arbitrage space limit，Therefore, the investors can take“Buy spot sell futures”The positive arbitrage operation，At present the market a csi 300 fine fruit(160706,Fund it)ETF and huatai BaiRui csi 300 ETF two funds to realize the csi 300 index of completely copy，Investors might as well“Buying 300 ETF fund、And sell IF1208 contract”And wait for the return of the price reasonable。

　　中证期货则表示，从技术看，连续6天窄幅波动，并收出上影线，重心继续缓慢下移，但相对于现货市场仍显得下方有支撑，但这样持续整理的局面预计不会维持太长时间，近期或面临方向选择的可能，多空都需要警惕这样的波动的出现。操作上，建议继续观望为宜。记者 徐海峰

Futures said it has，Look from technology，For six days fluctuate narrowly，ShangYingXian and take out，Gravity continue to slow down，But relative to the cash market is still below have support，But such continued sort of situation is not expected to maintain for too long，The near future or face the possibility of direction choosing，Empty all need to guard against such a wave to appear。Operation on，Advice to continue watching advisable。Reporter xu haifeng got